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How close SPY bottom? Are we close to the equity bottom or it just started its way down? in the last financial crisis/bubble Spy pulled back from the heights over 50%, at the moment we are still siting at around -23% . So if we will repeat history movies then we should find a bottom at around 233 right where 2018-2019 bottom was. worth to mention that each time when SPY dropped over -30% from top we had a recession. Let's hope that this time history will not repeat it self and SPY will find support at 200EMA. Trade safe and cut loses short. AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPY
by linkolnas13
2
Solana ranks low on the DeFiSafety technical risk score Solana network has had at least five complete or partial outages or service disruptions The $100 million funds are intended to support gaming and DeFi startups Solana’s study has been released by a firm that provides Process Quality Reviews (PQRs) for crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, which was highly critical. “Due to repeated downtime, Solana has the second-worst final technical risk score among the 15 series ever reviewed,” it said. Rather than auditing code or reviewing security, DeFiSafety focuses on the process behind the code and the quality of documentation. On-chain scores based on various criteria such as smart contracts and teams, documentation, testing, security, admin controls, and oracles are provided by the Canadian firm. SOL has been labeled an “Ethereum killer” numerous times, but it has failed to deliver. Since January, the network has had at least five complete or partial outages or service disruptions in 2021. The previous widespread outage occurred on June 1, when a bug prevented block production due to a consensus failure. DeFiSafety noted: “Solana’s base score is low. Despite a public software repository and some good documentation, their infrastructure relating to nodes is subpar.”
FTX:SOLUSD
by henryartem
When you should use leverage in your trades?When you should use leverage in your trades? I’m going to answer this question, but first, we have to mention two other questions to be answered. Q1: What is a reasonable trade? An order in which the entry point, stop loss, and take profit are already pre-defined based on a good return strategy or rules. Q2: What is money management? Money management is to determine the percentage of risk on the total balance in each order and to know what your position size will be and how much your potential loss will be. We need to do some calculations to answer the first question. Let’s suppose your account balance is $100 and the maximum risk on your balance for each trade is 5%. This means that on a reasonable trade, your loss will be $5 at most. Besides that, you have a good trading opportunity with an entry point at $10, stop loss at $9, and profit point at $12, i.e. 10% potential risk and 20% potential reward for the position. Since we cannot lose more than $5 of our balance, we need a position size where the potential loss will not exceed $5. Which we can calculate with this formula: (Max risk on balance / position risk * 100). Which would be $50 in our case.  This means that we are only allowed to include $50 out of $100 in this trade; this would be $5 after a 10% loss.  Everything is normal and we can afford it, so we will do the trade. Now, let’s increase the max risk on balance to 20%. It means our potential loss would be at most $20. By doing the same calculations considering the same reasonable trade with 10% risk, our position size will be $200 while we do not have more than $100, so where do we get $200 from?! Yep! Leverage would help you in this case. So benevolent, isn’t it?  In this case, your leverage would be 2 and you can open a $200 position, but don’t forget you increased your account risk from 5% to 20% already. Note that the risk will be applied to your real asset. If your balance is $100 and the leverage is 10, the exchange will give you about $1000 to buy or sell. While the 5% of $100 is $5, the 5% of $1000 would be $50, which is 50% of your real asset. So calculating the risk on leverage balance is practically meaningless! What if we had 10 orders simultaneously? It means $100 will be split between 10 orders. For ease of calculation, we consider every 10 trades to be the same as what we had above, while each trade would have 10% of $100. In these conditions, each trade would again have a $50 position, but leverage will be 5! Having said that, we can conclude that leverage alone is meaningless and finds meaning alongside reasonable trade opportunities and money management. In the above explanations, for the ease of calculation and context understanding, I used rand but not necessarily correct values. For example, a risk ratio of 5% on balance is a really high risk or in the example of 10 trades at once, it is wrong to consider your balance as $100 at the start of each trade. In the worst-case scenario, you should deduct the loss of the previous trade from your balance for the next trade. From the link below, you can access the tool I prepared to calculate the position details. bit.ly Feel free to give your constructive feedback.
Education
by bhnmzm
2
Risk-Off Rotation Crypto/Tech -> UtilitiesFundamentals: + Exposure to "Risk-Off" Utilities. + Biggest E.U nuclear power operator. (52% of E.U Nuclear power comes from plants run or used by EDF) + Need for upsizing given the Russia-Ukraine commodity constraints. Opinion: EDF is undervalued at its current price. As the situation with Russia deteriorates, as an energy partner; a "Risk-Off" idea, presents it-self. During times of recession, stagflation, cost of living crisis compounded by government's inability to further print to ease pressures due to the mishandling of the Covid crisis. The idea of hierarchy of needs is paramount. In difficult times, one may not pay rent, but he will pay for energy. Given there is no industry without energy, the idea behind green/clean at the cost of longer time frames; becomes prohibitive.(Main reason why E.U decided to consider Nuclear "Sustainable". www.dw.com) Instead, one can expect France; decades of expertise in Nuclear power generation to be highly in demand. It be by consulting on building of Nuclear power facilities across the E.U block or simply due to the sharing of market rated energy production via the EEX across the block. As the FED continues tightening, sovereign debt figures keep rising. Taiwan and Ukraine are now hotspots for defense contractors. Within the Risk-Off context and taking into account the military sovereign debt money printer is reaching new highs; exposure to military contractors may be a good risk-off idea. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
ELong
by TheBitcoinGeneration
3
Risk/Reward Tutorial - The Holy GrailThe traders who learn to view and think about trade setups in terms of risk/reward are the ones who end up making consistent (albeit massive) amounts of money. My personal strategy looks something like this: Using the 4-minute chart as the earth rotates 1 degree every 4 minutes. 

 𓃭 0.50% stop-loss measurement 𓃭 1/2 profits at 1.30% level and move stop to break even. 𓃭 2/2 profits at 1.50% :: (or 1.70%) 𓃭 Wait to enter trade at the previous 2nd candle base break up/down and skip trades that are in consolidation where the direction is not 100% clear. Keep in mind that my signals are so precise (indicating near exact future pivots) that I am able to use such a tight stop-loss, but this wont necessary work for the average trader. This video is merely meant to serve as an example of how to work out ratios for yourself. Knowing when not to take a trade is just as important as when to take a trade. Don't enter a trade if you are not confident, as it will only damage your equanimity. Don't let greed or fear destroy a good thing. Those emotions + impatience and lack of self-discipline are obstacles that prevent 97% of novice traders from ever succeeding in maintaining a long-term professional career. You should be operating as any casino or business would, do not gamble with your business. At the same time, allow yourself to make endless mistakes with ease and grace, knowing that if you want to succeed baldy enough and you never give up, you will find a way to realize your dreams! Mistakes are a right of passages. Excruciating lows and euphoric highs are what everyone experiences on the road to success. The 97% will give up along the way or never even attempt to begin with.
BYBIT:ETHUSD.P
by EsotericTrading
2
Do you have a Reward to Risk ratioIn the world of trading, do you know what a Rw/Rs (Reward to Risk) ratio is? if you dont this article will be beyond your understanding. I suggest you read up on Reward to Risk ratio & come back to read this. If you do know what a Rw/Rs ratio & assume most of you do, we can continue our merry trade discussion ;D My Rw/Rs ratio for Swing trades that i take on a Weekly (W) chart is factor of 4 to 6, am happy to see more. with my Day trading strategy; am a little more aggressive & will settle for a Rw/Rs factor of 3-4 to take on a day trade. Once a while, a trade opportunity arises that offer such a large room for Reward to run, as in this (W) chart of WMT WalMart Corp. if the trades goes my way, look at this room for profit to run, with no resistance of supplyzone in sight this can go up.....sweet mama, she got my attention. First; (Disclaimer) I will never take a trade solely based on a sweet Rw/Rs the odds are not in my favour. Back to the trade. So i have a sweet Rw/Rs ratio what else is going on? Price is crashing into a DZ from the (M) & this DZ happens to be the HL of the month (M) uptrend. This is good, The week (W) price chart is into the long-term chart DZ (Demand zone). This qualifies only if the (M) is still in a technically defined in uptrend. This is a Classic trade set-up I love. Like a Snipper I set my LNG (long) entry at 117 level slightly above the lower band of the DZ, my entry was so low that my risk was less than a dollar before my STP triggers. I took the Long position, the market rallied & so did WMT, & I closed 1/2 my position once price reached 128, I took a good 10 Rw (Reward) pressure if off. already the trade made its money. & I let the 1/2 of the position run. Lets see how it goes when the market is open on Monday. This was a swing trade using the (W) chart to identify the setup. Long-term would be the (M) chart & I used the (D) daily chart to enter & set my STP.
NYSE:WMTLong
by greatful-me
Bull? Bear? Swan? The chart: Shows an index average for SPX, NAS and DOW using rescaled CFD and futures prices. Indicator is a momentum oscillator (midline) with an envelope much like a Bollinger band. The paradox: The consensus is the chart is a picture of 'doom' (as bearish as it gets). At the same time, every trader in the chat room was bullish on the upcoming 12 hours. Not a single bear. The assumption that recent outcomes will be repeated is also called "The Hot Hand" . Both chart and traders refer to the same asset class. The chart accurately describes what traders experienced. Same information, but divergent conclusions and sentiment. Why the gap? One contributing factor is likely the qualitative difference between looking at a chart, and trading that same market in real time. Research shows that when we "experience" outcomes ourselves we pay more attention to the most recent, frequent and impactful outcomes. This does not happen if we get the same information on a chart, from a discussion, or the news.) In his book "The Black Swan", Nassim Taleb attributes peoples 'black swan blindness' (pp.77) to never *experiencing* an event, even if the information is available in some descriptive format (like a chart). There is a similar discussion in the chapter on rare events (ch.30) in Kahneman's book "Thinking fast. and slow" . Lastly, lab studies from economics, finance and psychology provide data for both predictive and descriptive models. These models can be used to predict how personal experience with risk will result in different sentiment that a simple description of the same information. Some of this research is summarized in a Psych-Science paper at: pure.mpg.de Notes: This way they can share the same USD scale and are weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see: www.barchart.com ). In basketball there is a belief that a player can be on a hot-streak and more likely to score. Despite the compelling belief, statistical studies show it to be false. The same can be said for consecutive sessions in the equity markets. On a whole the market is largely efficient thanks to our relentless effort to remove every last inefficiency.
FX:SPX500
by gb50k
2
Risk Management ‼️‼ Survival rules in trading for newbies, if you respect those rules i can make a bet you wound't lose your account as the majority of traders are. ‼ The key word there is IF YOU RESPECT ✅ 1. Always trade with a stop loss ✅ 2. Have a pre-determined risk on each trade no more then 1% ✅ 3. Don't move your stop loss if the price is not going in your favour ✅ 4. Don't add to losing positions, only viceversa. Add to your winning positions ✅ 5. You have to increase your risk only if you are in profit on your account, decrease your risk when you are losing and increase it when you are winning. Hope that was usefull for your trading plan.
Education
by Snick3rSD
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Today we will talk about RISK ON vs RISK OFF Market Sentiment as i use this confluence to enter trades. ✅ Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing the are buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets. ✅ Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money on viceversa risk off is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe.
Education
by Snick3rSD
The rotation of 2022. Out of Tech/Crypto into Agriculture.The market has taken a turn to a risk off scenario. When on spot without the capability to short, the most logical move is a rotation towards the most Risk-Off asset there is Agriculture. Under normal conditions gains in this area would be meagre at best. However, as producing countries face civil unrest due to rising inflations, we are seeing an increase in export bans, this is compounded by the Ukrainian conflict effect on wheat. So far there is a group of 20 countries some of daam top 3 producers in their respective crops imposing export bans that are planned to end in December 2022-December 2023. With this in mind a hefty increase in wheat and other crops is expected. Aiming for FIB 4. #LONG #TRADEOF2022
WLong
by TheBitcoinGeneration
The great 2022 rotations. Tech/Crypto -> AgricultureThe market has taken a turn to a risk off scenario. When on spot without the capability to short, the most logical move is a rotation towards the most Risk-Off asset there is Agriculture. Under normal conditions gains in this area would be meagre at best. However, as producing countries face civil unrest due to rising inflations, we are seeing an increase in export bans, this is compounded by the Ukrainian conflict effect on wheat. So far there is a group of 20 countries some of them top 3 producers in their respective crops imposing export bans that are planned to end in December 2022-December 2023. With this in mind a hefty increase in wheat and other crops is expected. Aiming for FIB 4. #LONG #TRADEOF2022
BLong
by TheBitcoinGeneration
The great 2022 rotation Tech/Crypto -> Agriculture.The market has taken a turn to a risk off scenario. When on spot without the capability to short, the most logical move is a rotation towards the most Risk-Off asset there is Agriculture. Under normal conditions gains in this area would be meagre at best. However, as producing countries face civil unrest due to rising inflations, we are seeing an increase in export bans, this is compounded by the Ukrainian conflict effect on wheat. So far there is a group of 20 countries some of them top 3 producers in their respective crops imposing export bans that are planned to end in December 2022-December 2023. With this in mind a hefty increase in wheat and other crops is expected. Aiming for FIB 4. #LONG #TRADEOF2022
CME:CPO1!Long
by TheBitcoinGeneration
Your strategy will inevitably go through a Drawdown!Your strategy will inevitably go through a Drawdown. And there's nothing you can do about it to stop that. However, you can learn how to survive it! Today I will give you actionable steps, that you can use for the next time the market hit your strategy and you feel that everything is going wrong. Let's start with an idea of what a drawdown is, and why drawdowns happen. There are an infinite amount of trading strategies and tools that people use to trade and take advantage of specific market conditions. Some traders are better in trending markets, they trade breakouts. Other traders feel more comfortable in ranging markets, where they trade quick reversals on key levels. The Math is simple here. Trending strategies will have a poor performance on ranging markets, while reversal strategies will have a poor performance on trending markets. Detecting the beginning and end of trending cycles or ranging cycles, is blurry. So, if you agree with that, as I do, you can expect your strategy to start failing at some point. And that's the beginning of the drawdown. (This is true for the best traders in the world, as for the worst traders in the world. Nobody scape drawdowns, the quickest you accept this, the faster you can learn how to handle them properly) So let's start by saying that drawdowns are situations where your strategy experiences a lasting decline in performance, even if you are doing everything perfectly. Drawdowns, happen because strategies are made to take advantage of specific anomalies that can be found in one part of the market cycle, and when that market cycle finishes, or changes, your strategies become less accurate. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It's important that you become aware of the Psychological consequences of Draw Downs , so you can have a countermeasure for this. Let's take a look at the most common ones: 1) Decrease in confidence (constant negative thoughts about your system) 2) Fear of entering the next trade. 3) Thinking about changing things in your strategy (deviations from the original plan) 4) Thinking about modifying the risk you are using to cover losses quicker. 5) Ceasing your trading execution, and looking for a new strategy. ALL THESE ITEMS, are the main situations you may start feeling when going through a drawdown. IF you are going through that, it's important that you understand that you are under a delicate emotional state, where your confidence is low, and you are prone to make more emotional decisions that 99% of the time, tend to increase the drawdown. So the way we handle drawdowns is by having logical and systematic processes in place instead of emotional ones. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here you have actionable steps to handle drawdowns: STEP 1 : You handle drawdowns by getting ready before they happen, not when they are happening. This is true for almost all disciplines, not only for trading. Airplanes have clear plans in case things start going wrong, instead of figuring out the problem at the moment, pilots go to the manual book, and use the template for this situation, plus the fact that they trained those situations several times in simulations. So, if you want to understand what a drawdown situation looks like in your strategy, you MUST go into the past, and when I say this, I'm not saying making a 3 week backtest. You need to go as far as you can in the past, to find that exact moment where your strategy is not working as expected. How many consecutive stop losses do I have? 3? 5? 15? 20? How long does this period last until everything goes on track again? 1 month? 3 months? or a year? These are the kind of answers you are trying to solve. When doing a backtest you are trying to understand two things. The first one is if your strategy has an edge. The second one is how hard you get hit when things go wrong! STEP 2: Work your risk management around the stats of your system. Imagine we reach the following conclusion "I have a system, that executes 10 setups per month" and the worst-case scenario I have found is 20 consecutive stop losses during 2 months. What I would personally assume is that 20 consecutive stop losses can be 30. So how much capital percentage should I risk on this system so I don't get knocked out if this TERRIBLE scenario happens. The answer for me would be 1% per setup. Under the assumption of this unique scenario, I would be 30% down, which is something acceptable, compared to the drawdown of conventional investment vehicles like S&P500 where we observed those kinds of declines, in the last years. The main point here is that you need to adapt the risk you are using on the strategy, to the stats of it, and your risk tolerance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let's recap the key aspects of this post. 1) Drawdowns are inevitable, your strategy will be hit by this scenario eventually. 2) Drawdowns cause an emotional disturbance and are the main reason why people make really bad decisions. 3) We handle drawdowns by getting ready in advance. Through backtest, we can understand the edge of our strategy and the worst-case scenarios. 4) We adapt the risk of our strategy, by considering a terrible scenario, like 30 consecutive losses. This will not eliminate the feeling during this period, but it will bring you a work frame to make logical decisions based on data, instead of emotions. Implementing this type of thinking will make your strategy more robust, it will help you go through these situations, and most importantly it will protect you from making stupid things with a strategy that has an edge, and actually works! Thanks for reading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
129