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Macro Perspective - TechnologyAn increasing level of concern is rising within the Bond, Equity and Real Estate Complexes or Markets. I prefer Complex as each "Market" has a number of entities using their control mechanisms. The Equity Complex has a number of headwinds approaching for Technology (NQ). Yields, specifically the 10Yr Treasury Note has been a reliable Instrument for an Inverse or Negative Correlation. 10Yr Yields rose Friday 4.6% In addition, we want to observe the Long End of the Yield Curve flattening - this is a warning sign, one which proceeds corrections. Technically, the most recent reversal has seen poor breadth within NQ. The majority of the rise have been driven by the usual narrow Big Cap, heaviest weighted Equities. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, FB, MSFT - NVDA provided most of the gains for Index. Unusual option activity has been on the rise as well, favoring large and often extreme positions for downside. One Trade amounted to $40Million in QQQ 340 Puts. The NQ has repeatedly created a large squeeze prior to a reversal, the last thrust higher pushed up 500 points late in the day only to collapse the following day, giving up all of its gains. IMHO, something is brewing which will be extremely bad for the NQ. There are a number of vectors for it see a large correction. Earnings will be led by share buy backs, Co2 Credits and a host of other accounting manifestations, but Gross Revenues should be less than optimal for a sustained uptrend. The "Delta" variant may encourage some traders to position for increasing "growth" initially - this is not March of 2020. Taiwan is at risk on a number of fronts. This would clearly be a large negative for Semiconductors. I do believe this will play out as there is an increasing number of large entities seeking to follow Apple's lead with their RISC Architecture and begin using their own Chipset Designs and Architecture. MSFT announced this some time ago. Google continues to reduce MSFT Office's market share with Google Docs. Windows 11 is a clear signal MSFT is changing their strategy after having announcing Win 10 was it. The concentration of Chip/Chipset fabrication in Taiwan presents an imbalance globally and with it the attendant risks. China is one, Water is another and there are a more. Japan has recently sworn to defend Taiwan as they are wholly dependent on Semiconductors for almost everything they manufacture. The US has conducted multiple Naval exercises in the South China Sea for years. IS something brewing there? I do not know, but do believe there is an inherent risk well advanced with respect to Taiwan. There is little the US can do to prevent China taking back Taiwan IMHO. I favor a Geopolitical Event inducing this correction, one that occurs after hours during GLOBEX and not RTH. Europe is well advanced in declining Economic activity. The pace of Economic growth in China has slowed. The US reopening trade has been one of confusion, mistrust and one foot our the door. If traders review Samsung in 2019 and their decline in Gross Revenues, we are witnessing the same event spreading once again. Inflation changes purchasing decisions, substitution effects begin to take place. There is much more, but I will condense this in now: I expect Tech to see a large correction later this month. I expect a number of Monthly Red Bars for a number of Indices. I will discuss the ES YM RTY and Bonds in upcoming posts. I do believe the Russell 2000 and tech will lead the Indices down soon. Perhaps August - November contracts will serve us well. Given the large ranges, using Micro Contracts for Inverse Ladders would be a wise choice. The VXN should be monitored closely, it has worked well. We will see how hard this can be pushed prior to a large reversal. The VIX has not been as correlated to the NQ as the VXN and 10Yr Yields. Good Trading Everyone - more to follow as we are approaching highs in everything, although the YM won't likely peak until August.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by HK_L61
2
Is this a breakdown or a meltup?The choice is yours - you can see it any way you like. The technical features here are: 1. Reducing peaks of squeeze momentum. 2. Recent RSI is below 50. 3. Rejection of 4H ATR line. 4. Large area of consolidation. Caution: none of the above means that price has to crash. Just to be clear - price could well go to the moon. The technical situation in my assessment (at this time) means greater probability for the south. Probability estimates do not predict how far a movement may go. This is a set up for a trend-following scenario i.e. high risk to high gain. High risk means high probability of big losses, if you don't know what you're doing if you short this. Following a trend south means finding a suitable trend that is below the 4H time frame. There is no magic formula to work that out. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
Most Valuable StockApple is the most valuable publicly traded company ($2.37T) behind Saudi Aramco. This title has been rightfully earned as the company continues to deliver in customer loyalty, growing services business, and continued product development pipeline. This stock has continuously made all-time highs since its inception and is currently within 1% of its all-time high of $143.15. Technically, there are three indicators that show favorable future price action. 1) The company is not in an overbought condition according to the MACD. 2) The company has tested its previous resistance of low $140s multiple times. 3) The company Price-to-Earning ratio has consolidated as earnings have risen in the past couple of months Furthermore, as interest rates have been low this company is a safe bet to outperform due to its historical growth. This provides a sense of risk-free return, a great hedge in the current high-valued market. Finally, there has been significant call buying recently further ratifying the potential for a breakout.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by howdydany
AUDUSD recovery battles 200-DMA amid mixed sentimentAUDUSD pares weekly gains while easing to 0.7543 amid early Wednesday. The pair earlier benefited from the Fed’s rejection to rate hike and tapering before the US dollar picked up safe-haven bids. Additionally, weighing on the quote could be risk-negative headlines from China and cautious sentiment ahead of US PMIs. Hence, failures to cross the key moving average, namely 200-DMA around 0.7555, could recall the 0.75000 threshold on the chart. However, any further downside will be restricted by a four-month-old support line near 0.7485. Meanwhile, an upside breakout of 200-DMA level of 0.75555 will need to cross multiple lows marked since early February near 0.7580 to convince buyers for a return. Following that, the 0.7600 and early month low near 0.7645-50 should gain the market’s attention as a break of which could confirm the bullish momentum targeting the monthly top near 0.7775. Overall, AUDUSD fades bounce off the key support line and hence further weakness can’t be ruled out.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Where can we buy $LINK with the best risk reward ratioHi, welcome to this quick update hope it can improve your perspective on the market. We are witnessing some huge volatility at the moment, but these volatile times are the best to fill your bags with some good and promising coins. 1.You can start Buying $LINK at this current low and aim for $26 as your first Target and $33-$34 as your second Target midterm. 2.If you haven't bought $LINK at $15 or so, I recommend you to put some Buy orders at $13, as it is the midpoint of the previous Bull market range. The crucial points that you should consider are: We don't want to see $LINK drops below $9-$8, so your Stop-loss is below that area. If you are perma Bull, then you should know that the bullish breaker lays around $33. If you are going to buy $LINK at this current price, then average down or average up at the levels that I drew, depending on your own risk management Your likes and comments will cheer me up a lot, thanks.
Long
by CryptoSep
Your OWN EXPECTATIONS are the BIGGEST thing HOLDING YOU BACK! 🤷HOW you can get control of your emotions when trading So if trading is stressful or a rollercoaster, you're not alone. 🎢 BUT, its quite a simple fix really.🤔 You're pushing things a little too hard. Chasing an expectation that in return is causing you stress. 😢 Thing is, its actually pushing you further away from your long term goals too. Long term hopes and dreams, short term thinking, greed and poor decision making. A fear over your running trades constantly watching them on screen. You aren't listening or paying attention to what is going on around you.📱 It can be different though.... Think about it..🤔 If you had a £10,000 account and traded 0.01 on 1 or 2 pairs - would you be stressed? 🧘‍♂️ No. Thought not.😅 The fear would be gone, you wouldn't be bothered - why? Because your risk is F all. The other upside is you would be fine letting your winners run too.💪🏻 So, instead of chasing money - focus on how you want to feel and work back from it.😳 If you have a £500 account - what risk are you truly comfortable with at any one time? What losing run could you experience based on your strategy win rate his could you factor this in too. If you traded 1 pair at 0.01 I am confident you would feel ok; but trading 0.1/0.2 etc on a few pairs and you won't be. So, what am I saying? Strip it back, get comfortable - no one likes to feel stressed and worried over their trades BUT in return you will need to realign your expectations to the long game. 🤝 Think - 2-5 years.🤔 Not how much you can make in a day/week.... you simply won't survive.👍🏻
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
2
Using Risk Management to Not Lose Money Risk Management In this article we are going to talk about the most exciting topic of risk management! Sarcasm aside, this is probably the single most important lesson that any trader or investor can ever learn. Warren Buffett famously said: "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1." So, if it is good enough for the most successful investor of all time, it is good enough to write a post about. Now, this quote does not apply to every single trade; no one trades without taking losses. But this is more about mindset, how to strategize, and your performance overall. In fact, with what you are about to learn, you will see that it is actually possible to lose more trades than you win while STILL being a profitable trader. We will get to the actual math/strategy in a moment. First, a short word about psychology. Nothing makes a trader lose more money than not having a well thought out plan or not sticking to it. We need to make our strategy first so that we can do it logically, and without emotion. This is easier to do beforehand because we haven’t actually put any money in the market yet. So, what is it that we need to know? What is my total account size? What am I willing to lose per trade? What is my Stop Loss? What is my Position Size? What is my Risk to Reward Ratio? If you cannot answer these questions then it is not a good idea to click the “buy” button! Unless you just want to gamble and throw money away. Question 1 - What is my total account size? Probably the easiest question for you to answer. Account size is the amount of money that you have in the market. Personally, I like to split my total account size into two parts. One part for longer term HODLing. One part for short-mid term swing trading. For my calculations, I forget about the HODL account and only look at the money in the trading account. I personally do not day trade. If I get into a position, I expect to be in it for 1-4 weeks. Obviously, this rule is flexible based on market conditions. Question 2 - What am I willing to lose per trade? This one is a bit more subjective because it comes down to how risk averse you are. It is generally accepted that you should risk between 1-5% of your account per trade. For me, anything above 3% is higher than I like, so I stick to 1-2% and sometimes 3. So, if you have a trading account of $10,000 and you want to risk 1%, you are risking $100: $10,000 x .01 = $100 To be clear – Risking 1% of your account does NOT mean using 1% of your account each trade. You are not spending $100 on each trade. Risk =/= position size. Risking 1% means that if your Stop Loss gets hit you lose $100. Question 3 - What is my Stop Loss? Firstly, what is a Stop Loss? A Stop Loss is an order that is placed to automatically close you out of a position should the price be hit. You should place your Stop Loss order right after you open your position. This is also a good time to place another order to close out your position at your target price. But where do you put the Stop Loss? A Stop Loss is best placed at a price that invalidates the reason you got into the trade in the first place. Sometimes this is, very creatively, called the “Invalidation Level”. For example, if you are trading a breakout to the upside, and then the price of your crypto shoots down in the other direction past your support levels, it is no longer a breakout and you should exit the position. To restate this in a different way, this level should not be arbitrary. There is no reason to automatically put your Stop Loss at 6.7138%, or any other random number, of your entry. The level you chose should be based on Technical Indicators; like a base of support, a Fibonacci level, or a previous high. This is because the market does not care about your arbitrary values. The market is made up of people and whales (who, believe it or not, are also people), and they, the ‘Market’, care about TA. Here is another example of a more short term trade to the downside. You could be more aggressive with the Price Target considering the resistance was so weak, but this is just an example to illustrate my point. (MACD looks nice there too. Learn more about that HERE ) Question 4 - What is my position size? In order to calculate position size we need to know a two different things: Risk Per Trade - 1 to 5% Distance from entry to the Stop Loss in percentage terms So the equation is Position Size = (Total Trading Account Size X Risk Percentage)/Distance to Stop Loss from entry For example, if you have a $10,000 account and you want to risk 2% while your Stop Loss is 10% away from your entry: ($10,000 X .02)/.1 = $2,000 Position Size while only risking $200. One thing to note here is that the closer your Stop Loss is to your entry, the larger Position Size you can trade with. So if you move the stop up to 5% away from your entry: ($10,000 X .02)/.05 = $4,000 Position Size while still only risking $200. Naturally, a larger position gives you more potential profit. (Don’t take this to mean use margin. I personally don’t use margin for Crypto and would recommend that most people don’t either.) Now that we have the position size, we should determine if the trade is worth getting into by finding your Risk to Reward Ratio. Question 5 - What is My Risk to Reward Ratio? The Risk Reward Ratio, sometimes simply known as R, is the ratio between your potential profit and potential loss. Reward/Risk = R So if you open a position where you can potentially lose $100, and you can potentially profit $300, then your trade has an R of 3. If you click on the Long or Short Position button in TradingView, you can move the sliders up and down and see what your R will be in real time. Double clicking on this will take you to the settings where you can input exact values. Since you set your Stop Loss at a logical point, one based on TA and not a whim, you should do the same with your Price Target. So why is having a high and, more importantly, realistic R a good thing? Because then you can actually lose MORE trades than you win and STILL be profitable. If you know your average R you can easily calculate the minimum win rate you must have to stay profitable over the long term: (1 / (1+R)) X 100 Let’s say your average R per trade is 2.5: (1/(1+2.5)) X 100 = 28.5% Meaning that you only need to win 28.5% of the time to not lose money overall. Because of the nature of this equation as your R increases, your required winrate to stay profitable decreases. Final Thoughts So, now that you have asked yourself, and have answered, the five big questions you are ready to open a trade. Remember why we do this. We should not expect to win every trade. But you must set yourself up so that when you do lose there is minimal damage to your account. Understanding the basics of Risk Management is the tool you need to keep your losses small, and account intact. Please let me know if you have any questions and if you like it, please hit the thumbs up and be sure to follow for more! Links to my Fibonacci Retracement, RSI, and MACD guides are below. Give them a read for more information!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by zsamochin
52
Is the economy going to hit a wall?The problem with the worlds economies reopening now is the stock markets already priced in the reopening over the past year with lower inflation numbers and massive QE. How do the markets avoid hitting this inflation wall? Fed says it's "transitory", is there enough QE left to jump this wall? How does one chart "transition" with indicators? Ever chart I pull up is overbought, has to much debt and highly speculative based on future earnings. Leverage is at an all time high along with the S&P. Yields are approaching the limit they will stretch.
CBOE:VIX3M
by SPYvsGME
1
No its not a picture of Mickey Mouse...🐭It's a super clear diagram on what key ingredients you need to find the 'sweet spot' = profitability. The thing is, most people are desperately hunting for the holy-grail, you know - that 100% winning strategy... the silver bullet. It doesn't exist - I'm sorry. 😢 So even a profitable strategy that's awesome can blow your account if the other 'factors' are not considered.... Greed and risk management. With poor risk management you can blow your account on a profitable strategy. Much like if the casino didn't set a trade limit - they could go bust if a gambler got 'lucky' - because its the casino that has the mathematical 'edge', right? You must factor in your losing runs to ensure you not exposing your account to the 'risk of ruin'. So yeah a profitable 'edge' is key, but without managing your mindset and using effective risk management, its actually useless too. Having an understanding of probability is fine too - but if you don't execute your 'edge' or if you don't have one, you won't be profitable too. And lastly, yeah - you can have your risk management nailed on - but if you've not got a profitable edge too, you'll lose money. Just less money. You could absorb 500 consecutive losses on a £1000 account at 1% risk per trade, but you'd only have about £6 left. Your strategy would have to be really poor for that to happen! But you catch my drift, that effective risk management is vital. So in summary, you need these three key ingredients... Strategy with an Edge Effective Risk Management planning for probability Trading Psychology - (greed under control, no fear, discipline, resilience, etc) You can't get to the 'sweet spot' without all 3 being in perfect alignment. Good luck. Darren If this helps - please show me by liking this post if you can, its appreciated and I'll do more like this 😎
Education
by pow_removetheguesswork
3
Statistical approach to risk management - Python scriptThis script can be used to approximate a strategy, and find optimal leverage. The output will consist of two columns, one for the median account size at end of trading, and one for the share of accounts liquidated. The script assumes a 100% position size for the account. This does not take into account size deviations for earnings and losses, so use with a grain of salt if your positions vary greatly in that aspect. Code preview cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/592684708551327764/848701541766529034/carbon.png TradingView does not allow posting external links until you've reached a specific reputation, so i can't use the url feature Input explanation WINRATE : chance of winning trade AVGWIN : average earning per winning trade AVGLOSS : average loss per losing trade MAX_LEVERAGE : maximum leverage available to you TRADES : how many trades per account you want to simulate ACCOUNTS : how many accounts you want to simulate the inputs used in the source code are from one of my older strategies, change them to suit your algorithm Source code pastebin.com/69EKdVFC Good luck, Have fun -Vin
VEducation
by Vindruee
BTC WILL BOUNCE ON JUNE ? We are on a simetric triangle that could be bullish or bearish, I'm bullish since we have higher lows. - We don't have much volume since the CME Globex Trading Schedule is on Holidays for Memorial Day (28 May - 1 June 2021) - The action price looks clever, the miners keeps holding. - Project Jasper is developing a new way of payments allowing works with bitcoin. - Investors and institutions started to invest in BTC. - Could be the end of wyckoff. - ADX is bullish/range since not have force enouth - Weekly RSI : 44 - Daily RSI : 32 Conditionals: - Hold the 30k -33k triangle. - Hold the 30k support. Bearish scenario. - Current behavior from Long-Term Holders and Short-Term Holders only resembles two other times: 2018 bear market & 2013 consolidation between double pumps - If we lose 30k - 29k Support we could reach 20k - 19k and then bounce. Things to consider: - Montly candle is the key for the possible scenario. - The volume will start 2 - 3 June. - Big meeting of BTC : Bitcoin Conference 2021 (4 - 5 June) - Goldman Sachs changed opinion about BTC. - Chinesse Mining Enterprises are considering move to EU and USA mostly, which is not great for the crypto but maybe for the price because big institutions will get more confident since the goberments start to dig and tax the mining and have better control of exchanges.
Long
by awstian