EURJPY H1 - Long SetupEURJPY H1
Nice rejection from resistance seen yesterday, didn't quite pull down to our H4 support zone, but performed nicely nonetheless. Now we have broken resistance we could expect further upside corrections on these ***YEN pairs.
My only concern is GBPJPY, as we approach 151.000, this seems like a good short price to me. However, EJ, UJ and CHFJPY seem bullish still.
Risk
Finally in the zone of interestFrom overbought ATH around 61780 price fell down to oversold and showing us bullish divergence on 4H RSI. When we consider strong support FIBO zone around 52.4K we get great probability for trade with minimal risk. Longs positions are starting stabilize too. (green line above charts). After all of that I will still opening only a small position of my account to leave room for further maneuvering :D Because the price CAN have many obstacles upwards (56500,59300,60000 and ATH.)
15% of account i long at market price.
Comment below where you will buy or maybe where you will short: D
And if you agree like.
I will update this idea in close future so if you want, follow me.
DXY is looking for a direction.As shown in the charts, the price trend records a downward movement, using the entire range of the trend channel, but is unable to break the resistance level at 92.50. Applying the Fibonacci Retracement tool, it seems that the specific resistance level at which the upward trend of the last period was stopped coincides with the critical price level of 61.8FR. This makes it particularly important in determining the course of the DXY. Moreover, there are two more critical resistance levels at 94.60 and 96.00.
The averages as well as the MACD, on the other hand, seem to give a positive outlook on DXY's effort to move upwards. At present, of course, these observations are too early and are not sufficient to definitively substantiate the beginning of an uptrend. Clearly much more momentum is needed from the MACD as well as the averages that record the uptrend to get the right position.
Looking at the data from the Bollinger Bands, it seems that the index reacts more than ever to the upward movement of the DXY, as the outer bands are in a relative deviation. Without this of course creating perfectly for its course because it may have been caused by the movement of prices outside the upper band. Finally, the data analyzed by the Bulls / Bears seem to lead to the accumulation of a dynamic on the part of buyers which is still subdued.
Summarizing all the above, it seems that DXY is trying to find an uptrend which now cannot be confirmed 100%. The criticality of the price level 92.50 is obvious. A possible upward break in this resistance level may lead DXY to what it has been trying lately, a rise in prices. On the other hand, if prices move lower in the coming days, it means that buyers are not yet ready to take the risk and drive the dollar higher.
CHFJPY H1 - Short Trade SetupCHFJPY H4
Another simple yet effective trading range on this pair playing out, simplicity at it's finest, identifying powerful and quantifiable trading zones and making the most out of what is there.
EURJPY has broken upside, analysis to follow, same principle from previous expectations, just unfortunate we didn't get the full retest.
How to deal with taking a lossThe five stages of grief are an ever present reality in life. A loved one passes away, or you suffer through a heart break, you will most likely go through all five stages:
Denial
Anger.
Bargaining.
Depression.
Acceptance.
Going through these stages is a healthy way to cope with loss or a painful event. Financial pain is one of the hardest pains to cope with and if you trade stocks options or are anyway involved in the securities’ industry, you have most likely felt this pain. The deep gut-wrenching pain of seeing all of your profits disappear and your screen have so much red on it, you forget what the color green even looks like. I want to share with you how I have dealt with each of these stages after I have taken a loss and how so many other professional traders have reacted.
Firstly, taking a loss shouldn’t be a financially crippling event. You should be using smart risk and reward ratios when trading and ALWAYS USING A STOP LOSS. This is not a negotiable aspect of trading or investing. You can either lose a defined amount with a stop loss or hold that loss and watch your investment go to zero.
Denial
The first stage after taking a loss is denial. Thinking and saying to yourself “It’s just a small loss. It’s certain to come right back up.” Let me be the first and hopefully the only person to tell you this: it doesn’t have to come back up. That stock doesn’t have to do anything you think it should. It can go to the moon or straight to zero and there is not a thing you can do to stop it. If you are using a stop loss, you are going to know if you are right or wrong about the trade very quickly. If you’re not using a stop loss…then RIP to your account. Don’t be a bag holder and not take a small loss compared to a large one. Denial is hard to conquer and the hardest to adapt to. Just remember that a loss can happen, it will happen and most stock don’t recover. Take your small loss and move on.
Anger
After that loss comes anger and frustration. You’re mad at yourself for taking the trade. You’re mad at the company whose stock it is. Furthermore, you’re mad at your broker. You are just plain mad at everything. The best thing to do at this stage is to accept accountability for what happened. 99.99/100 errors are caused by the user when it comes to trading. I have only had a broker mess up one of my trades and I gave them all my info, and they corrected the error. Still lost money on the trade because of how trading inherently is. Here is the thing, there is no reason to get upset over a trade, the next one is around the corner, and it could be a great winner. Take the loss as an opportunity to pump the brakes and cool off. Clear your head, come back laser focused.
Bargaining
No matter what God you pray to or who you beg there is nothing that is going to change the outcome of that trade. A loss is a loss. The best thing to do at this stage is formulating a plan for the next time you take a loss. This way you have a guide on how to react and how to feel about your trading. Bargain with yourself, reward yourself for making smart trades by sizing up your trades. Make sure that the plan is reasonable and actionable and be honest with yourself when you fail.
Depression
People make mistakes, especially in finance. Just look at the hedge funds that shorted GME stock.
Those are “professionals” managing billions of dollars, and they lost a ton of money being dumb and shorting a sub $10 stock. Here is the thing, I’ll repeat it until I turn blue in the face: losses happen. Don’t beat yourself up. Move on. Live to trade another day. The most important thing to remember is to learn from what happened and let it burn a lesson in your mind. Success is made from failure. Fail small and fast.
Acceptance
This is the stage everyone should start with hen they take a loss. The best traders in the world have no emotion when it comes to taking a loss or making a profit. They recognize what it is and repeat what they know will work. Trading is meant to be boring. The moment it gets exciting you need to take a look at your risk.
Be boring and repeat what works is the main point. Double down on what makes you money and cut off what makes you lose money. If you are losing every trade, stop trading and reevaluate your strategy. IF you are winning a bunch of trades, size up and bring home some cash.
Looking at my portfolio and correlationsThis is not really my thing but I want to look into these correlations
First half of my risk is in crypto and they are all correlated.
Is it also correlated to the S&P?
Not really. On the way down the S&P did not drag Bitcoin along. There is no correlation at all with gold, all good.
The FX pairs are a bit correlated but half size each (for now).
So apart from the cryptos my porftolio is diversified. I mixed up the "long" term and short term but hey anyway each half (short & long) of it is checked.
The short term is all diversified the long term crypto heavy. Soybean has no correlation whatsoever also.
With cryptos I should stop adding and just ride it for now. To be real honest I don't have double clip on Bitcoin but maybe closer to 4 😀
My risk manager doesn't care he knows I am the chosen one. On the way up I should secure some profit before I re-enter with bigger risk.
I really want to hit it. But ye going through this I may be a bit overexposed. Let's make sure it goes up before going mental.
Just like with the S&P it's almost touching ath, it can smell it.
I really got 1.5 "big" bet long term, well if it goes to the sky it will be big.
And then a small short term portfolio, not really using advantage of Ray Dalio magic growth via many uncorrelated positions here.
Except I take what the market gives I'm sure some people think they can coinflip trades and the "power of diversification" will magically earn the profit.
Basically 3 positions short term it is fine, hopefully 1 of them wins.
TO THE MOON!
Anything Can Happen - a visual reminder to protect your capital30 minutes is all it took. It looks even better (worse) on the 5min chart.
If you want to succeed as a trader, or as an active investor, you must trade and invest in ways that protect your capital. The unexpected will occur, and when you lose money it should be easy to accept the loss. This is a horrifyingly perfect image to remind us to think through our trading decisions with the "what if" scenario covered.
GBPNZD INTRADAY OPPORTUNITYA classic move back to an area of liquidity. Anticipating a move back down to last weeks low over the next few days. This is a high risk opportunity as it goes against the current retail sentiment however the potential payoff is big.
Disclaimer: this is not a signal or financial adive. Please do your due deligence.
FTSE and all Stocks - The second leg lower is about to startHello all
I've been watching this since March 2020 where the first leg started to retrace - after having moved back up through the past 9 months and then consolidated the past 2 around the 61.8% to 78.6% fib retrace area
I expect early next week for the Head and Shoulders to be fully printed and based on Fibonacci extension, I expect price for the FTSE to drop below 4000, potentially near 3600.
Lets see what happens, however I wont be buying stocks for a long time.
Trade safe
Duncan
Tesla correction ahead?Corrections are healthy and normal movements at stock markets. Is one due for Tesla?
At point 0, 1 and 2 we are seeing sell signals of RSI and MACD simultaniously. The same pattern we do see now. This could be a signal for a imminent correction.
At point 1 and 2 after the corona low the stock fell to the first and second fibonacci retracement respectively. This time the correction could be even harder, will it fall to the 3rd (0.5) retracement?
Looking at the fundamentals the stock is very, very expensive. This could support a more harsh fallback. But we are in a very bullish market for growth values.
This also makes this idea a very risky one. I would suggest no one to trade it I probably wont do it myself. I will not bet against a heavily bullish Tesla.
I am new to trading, for this reason I am down to learn and discuss. Please tell me if I used something wrong. :)
How Much Should You Deposit / Invest?Hello TradingView Family, this is Richard, and today I am going to answer a question that I get asked a lot.
Question: How Much Should I Deposit / Invest?
The answer to that question is very subjective. Some say that "a minimum balance of 10 000$ is required", some others say "start small and then deposit more on the go".
In my opinion, to know how much to invest, you have to start the other way around.
How much risk per trade do you feel most comfortable with? Is it 20$? 50$ or 100$...
Those who know me, know that I enter with a fixed risk per trade and always target double.
For some of you, 20$ is nothing, and the 40$ reward isn’t worth it.
While for others 20$ may be too much, and thus can’t handle the loss.
Find that 1% risk per trade that suits you best.
Your 1% risk should not be too much for you, so you won’t get emotional.
In parallel, it shouldn't be too small, as then you won't take your trading seriously.
Find that 1%, then make it x100, that’s how much should deposit.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
USDCHF - Long trade - 4 to 1 Rewards vs RiskHello al
Linked to my EURUSD short, I am long USDCHF off of support and a decent area Fibonacci retracement area.
Trade is active, lets see if it gets up to MR2 - Monthly resistance
A more conservative entry is a close above the diagonal trend line.
Thanks for looking at my idea
Cheers
Duncan
Market Color Risk-OnAs we were going up the last two weeks we were seeing exactly the same colors just like before the prior two drops. (purple)
Yesterday we finally saw a short term reversal signal. (blue)
I think it is time to tighten your stops, or do some risk management.
On the other side, we have not seen weak internals as we saw the two prior drops (red).
This would be the time to take a full hedge.
NNDMbesides the fundamentals, the chart has a lot to offer
we can see here, that it can be at the top, almost ready to fall back, even to $4 per share.
tho, as we can also see here, it can also be the last low, after that we will see a parabolic upturn, that could drive the price +10x in less than 3 months.
or else, as we can see here, price is at top of the channel, ready to go down to the previous high, the now support (which worked as resistance for almost 5 months), before we can see any other upturn.
and can also be sideways nearly until the end of April, as we see here with this flag, waiting for the MA200 to get closer and offer support for more gain.
anyway, we have to keep in mind, RSI and MACD are all overbought, volume has almost been the same since this started climbing, which is synonymous of people's attention, at least. and also that NNDM has a 30% short float, according to finviz data.
if we want to talk about market cap, it is up to now, worth almost 800 Million.
if it, let's say, do a 10x (as we said as an option), the company will be worth 8 Billion dollars.
those are all different possibilities, I CAN NOT know which one is gonna be real in the future, but I know, for sure, this stock seems everything else than easy to predict.
play it carefully, keep in mind that those so much spoken among investors have high volatility, and so you could "win" doubling your value or losing half or more of it, in just a single day.
a lesson for everyone: as you do analysis about something, consider that your POV could not be the right one, or, more probable, could not be the only one. that's why we all should always consider something through someone else POV and change our first impression, by starting again with a free mind. (in order to have those 3 possibilities, I had deleted all the previous ones, and made a new one, totally based on something new, that I had not thought about before)
Successful trading is about managing risk, not avoiding it. Hello All,
This is the first idea I am publishing in Tradingview and I decided to select the topic of risk management, specially after the dramatic increase and subsequent decrease on prices which we have seen in TLRY and other weed stocks this week, all mostly happening in 48 hours.
If you just started trading and got involved on weed stocks, you probably been though a very painful experience because a lot of your precious money is probably gone. As trading becomes more and more popular, many new people join the market but without understanding the very basics of it and without considering risk management.
If you are one of those new joiners, I strongly advise you to improve your knowledge about risk management. here some basic rules:
1. Set a stop-loss!
2. Position size = (risk*budget) How much money you invest.
3. Entry point : When to buy
4. Exist point: When to sell.
To put it very simply, never buy a stock because it has gone up or sell one because it has gone down! I think the case of TLRY is a classic example of this.
So, what I described here here is just very basic. You should and must educate yourself about risk management, otherwise trust me you will regret your experience as trader.
PS: If you are new to this, I recommend you to read a very old but classic book about investment called "The intelligent investor" by Benjamin Graham. Let me be very clear that trading is not the same than investing. Which are you. really?
Have a good weekend!
TSLA Daily S/R| Swing High| Local S/R| Price Action Evening Traders,
Today analysis – TSLA – trading below its key Daily S/R where further downside is probable,
Points to consider,
- Price Action Impulsive
- Local S/R objective
(.50 Fibonacci Confluence)
- Daily S/R Resistance
TSLA’s immediate price action is impulsive, confirming a bearish retest of the Daily S/R will allow for a bearish bias.
The Local S/R is objective that is in confluence with the .50 Fibonacci, a respect of this level is probable on first attempt.
The immediate oscillators are bearish with stored momentum, maintaining their bearish control territories will deem weakness.
Overall, in my opinion, TSLA is a valid short with defined risk, price action is to be used upon discretion/ management.
Hope this analysis helps thank
Thank you for following my work
And remember,
“In order to succeed, you first have to be willing to experience failure.”
― Yvan Byeajee
FTSE will now Crash to 3650 - the trade of the YearHello all
DuncanForex here with a follow up on my trade idea that I've been watching since Feb 2020 - with no advertising about anything so the post will stay active.
With the power move during February 2020 (The AB Move) and then a slower retrace to the previous area of support which is now resistance.
The FTSE broke out of its downward consolidation long and is now progressing higher over the past few months to the 61.8 Fib retrace.
The Bullish move that occurred last month pushed the price into the middle of the 61.8% and 78.6% zone, after the bearish moves this past week and the "High" now printed, the CD move will be completed and the FTSE will ultimately go down to 3650
I had shorted the market as per my related ideas below, and i now have new entrys that you can see in the picture. (if you zoom in) - and also on other posts
I do expect this to drop fast - with EU issues and Covid vaccines driving it lower.
It will close on a bearish Pin Bar on the Weekly chart today.
In turn, I do expect GBP to get stronger and stronger - so don't short any GBP XXX pairs.
Stay safe and safe trading
Duncan