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ridethepig | XAU Market Commentary 2020.03.20This swing illustrates my idea of the "two jurisdictions" in a particularly striking fashion. As though playing at odds, to use the infamous expression. By this I mean the choice of a variation, which you yourself do not necessarily have to consider a good one. The premise consists of setting your opponent a difficult problem, or distraction. And Gold is the virtuoso of it. This is the reason some think that inflation (or rather deflation) is the Achilles heel moving forward. But, as I have said, on a misconception if risk shows no signs of abating. This move back towards the highs in the virus panic range (1700 - 1450) plays at the right moment in my books. But if buyers are obstructed via further liquidations; this represents quite a dark side to the idea: The next move raises the stakes; because Gold has taken its time in developing the $1700 handle, whereas a cramped $1500 should have special claim to be cautious! And yet, buyers have not yet passed the point of no return, they are refusing to capitulate after which it becomes impossible to breakdown. Hard to understand; a better way try was profit taking from the Santa Rally: To be clear, another test of the highs is now being prepared. As long as $1510 support holds we can see a leg towards $1630 with $1700 extensions again ( anything beyond was previously locked via Coronavirus but now spillovers are starting to enter into the picture as globalisation shuts down ). Continue to play both sides of this incredibly wide range, big figures are taking place in a matter of minutes; the European session has held the lows and tells us that where risk sentiment in the market is right now. Please manage expectations accordingly. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and support coming! Jump in with your charts and questions!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
47
EURUSD(1D) - long with controlled losses. I explain why there is a long position in this drawing on my probability estimates - taken from technical indicators. Note carefully the word 'controlled loss' means stoploss which means that's money one is prepared to lose. I never avoid talking about losses, as it is the most important thing to control in trading. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Long
by Captain_Walker
1
ridethepig | CHF Macro PlaybookThe pair is performing with little trouble for sellers, it has been absolutely hammered as Global Equities and Yields come under further pressure via Coronavirus impact. After a conversation with @FT_Lexicon we can discuss the importance of flanking and comparing with EURCHF is vital here, we can realise why there is not the same room for SNB intervention as there was in 2011. Let us now take a look at this two-stage manoeuvre in a swing without opposing forces: The 1.06 barrier is giving up, this will allow the move to follow through with CHF inflows. Here the CHF side must be occupied via risk-off positioning. The franc must be bought as long as we remain in this environment, a frontal attack on demand and supply and now markets are catching up. For all those tracking the previous USDCHF chart via generational US capital outflows we it is a good time to review the diagram: In the position; Sellers have already done the technical damage because the next soft support is not found till 0.900x which will hold temporarily before we move towards 0.85xx. The theory of our opposition is really lacking, FED cuts and US virus case numbers still ticking higher will all weigh heavily on USD going forward. The truth is simple; volatility was miles ahead and played its role as leader, here is the chart @ridethepig called back last year in VIX (Volatility): The application of the VIX in this context is helping us keep in sync with risk sentiment, as long as this remains elevated, all USDCHF rallies should continue to be sold. This shows the typical and ideal situation for us using CHF as a safe-haven. Their relationship is like those of real comrades, brothers standing side-by-side and must be taken into consideration at all times! The strength of their relationship will progress and demand a testing of the 0.85xx handle, their lust of range expansion will continue to drive the flows. On the technicals, 0.9525 is the closest s/t resistance and should be sold if it arises. Otherwise, well done all those holding shorts from the highs last year. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and charts rolling in the comments below !!
Short
by ridethepig
2
JPYBASKET's RSI Charts Potential Failure Swing TopFurther to our previous article , the JPYBASKET broke out of its flag formation and headed towards the pattern's target. This, as risk-off sentiment dominates markets and safe havens, like the JPY, benefit. However, it is worth noting that the RSI has pushed down from the 80 level (blue rectangle) in a pattern referred to as a RSI failure swing top. The failure swing is usually an indication that price may be correcting i.e. pulling back from its recent impulse move up. Thus, the flag's target may not be met (at least in the near term). However, any decline here may prove to be a low risk entry opportunity, especially if the risk-off sentiment that is permeating through the risk market continues to persist.
FX:JPYBASKETLong
by FXCM
ridethepig | Switched Sides On Gold!A masterclass performance from buyers, well done all those holding longs from 1250 and 1350... I know many here who have been riding the pig, that have kept working longs because the market said it worked and it paid! This has been one of the easiest rides in Gold in all my years of trading, the easy part of the rally is now finished. We are coming to the end of "Santanomics": Profit taking will begin and with that it was time to begin unwinding all remaining longs and time to cover with shorts. The blind retail coming in and buying this expecting it to go up forever when smart money have been miles ahead, we are just taking profits and switching sides...my regular readers will know this is the first sell idea i've posted in Gold in years... In any case, a flawless example of a swing to the topside throughout 2019. All targets are cleared and hit with the only exception being 1700 although this looks far away now considering profit taking has already begun. On the technical side, 1700 is acting as steel resistance above and should cap the highs unless we get panic via coronavirus (not expected till later in the year). The targets to the downside come into fruition at 1600, 1592 and to a lot lesser of an extent 1512 although is currently out of scope. Fading the exhaustion here seems tactical. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | A Homerun in Gold...In the realm of swing trading, the struggle for liberation is forever prevalent. It would be wrong to ignore the opening move here at 1205; This kickstarted the entire move towards $1305, once outside of the wedge buyers took an "anything goes" approach to the price as risk began to evolve over time. While the triangle from an elliot wave perspective was deemed risky, this move now became a standard: What is much more the point, is the rise in popularity of the wedge break. It was offering opportunities on both sides and while inflation was absent during 1H19 it presented a tradable ABC correction: The lows held and was sending loud messages that real money was on the move, this was a BTFD opportunity as see in these positions: Finally the technical development was there, it was just a matter for buyers to challenge the relevance of what is undeniable a useful strategy... Support: I am talking about the final stages of the middlegame here before we transition to endgame (in play now). Naturally the Santanomics kicked into play: Opening up $1650 and $1700 targets ... let's continue to ride the pig: In conclusion, by now we should all be fully loaded on the buy side here. There has certainly been opportunities even in this last leg to have increased exposure via PBOC intervention: Valentines Day: ... You get the point. A textbook example of setting up the foundations for a major swing and executing on it with precision. The macro assured us the whole time that sellers would not be able to compete!! Hope it has helped.. thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc! Buyers on the attack aimed first at the highs
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | XAU Market Commentary 2020.02.17Risk markets remain on the back-foot with no one wanting to get caught badly on the wrong side via COVID-19 haven flows. You can see this in USDJPY, after the awful GDP prints (still yet to see virus impact) the reaction was so muted. Markets remain at the mercy to gyrations in patient and death counts, I am sticking with the shorts from 109.7x/8x although by no stretch of the imagination married to this. A break above 110.3x will invalidate the view while soft support can be found at 109.2x which unlocks the leg towards 108 incase we get panic later in the week. Stay long Gold. After an initial blip lower, Gold has once again found a strong bid as markets position themselves defensively via COVID-19. The break of 1600 will be very telling, with NY calmly away from their offices today we could continue to find demand on dips. Well done all those riding from Valentines Day! A superb swing since we got the breakout: On the medium and long term things are a lot clearer, we can comfortably ride this till $1600, $1630 and finally $1650 before the next leg of profit taking begins: Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions or queries, to put simply here, adding longs and continuing to sit on the bid as long as risk remains in the spotlight. GL!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EURCHF High Risk Of Flash Crash !!!Here a good time to update the EURCHF as we break through the 1.062x lows as sellers are aiming for complete capitulation of their opponent (as far as the flash crash is concerned there is very little in terms of support here if we get a daily breach). The plan was (1) Forcing further selling EURCHF: (2) The extension leg was released and sellers advanced in triumph: (3) Possible retracement barrier, e.g strong support on 1.062x, smart money buying the lows? This plan to originally buy the lows could still be in play, in other words the close this week is important as it will effectively communicate whether we are in the exhaustion stage of our 'C' leg or rather starting the impulsive swing towards 1.014x which is the target wave '3'. It is much more difficult for SNB to intervene with FED tracking like a hawk to assimilate the CHF selling. The direct exploitation of an intervention is part of the middlegame - see some of my previous content on risk flows. All we need to hope for to achieve a major flush is to keep our opponent suffering for further lengths in time. Buyers are on the defensive! A close below 1.060x will demand some attention, monitoring closely the price action around these levels. Remain short for now. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comment and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
7
NZUUSD SHORTSHi traders, my bias on NU is currently short; I am running a position on this trade and intend to hold only for a few hours as this is a intraday trade. The reason I took this trade is actually quite simple, NU is currently on a downtrend destroying all previous support levels (major levels). Also absolutely destroying a very strong weekly trendline. With this in mind I looked at the current price action of NU and saw it was very close to a major key level of resistance. Price pullbacked and rejected this major resistance 2 times on the daily and numerous times on other time frames. Also looking at the 4 hour chart we see the EMA is acting as some sort of resistance (highlighted in orange); we see wick rejections of this area which is conveniently a major resistance level. Finally, all of these confluences enticed me to enter into a short position with a 1:1 RR , currently running in profits but look too close soon. Thank you for reading, please like and follow if you enjoyed!
Short
by SC98FX
1