Get started

Risk

[Reversal] USDJPY setting up for bullish breakoutDespite the US dollar sliding most of last week, USDJPY did not selloff as much as other USD pairs. As a result, price has been able to maintain the ascending channel within the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Inverse head and shoulders patterns can trigger a reversal in momentum if enough volume gets behind positive price action (PA). The head of the pattern touches a key level of support, ~104.60, which acted as support during major selloffs in early 2018 and 2019. Longer term (M/W), price continues to coil within the descending triangle pattern, again, 104.60 as support for the pattern. If positive PA continues and the inverse head and shoulders pattern is activated, price may reach the ~112 range. However, that would require breaking weekly trend resistance so be mindful if you are trading this pair. Overall market risk trends will dictate how trends turn out. It will be interesting to see if the Yen can maintain its safe haven status or if people will to the dollar.
Long
by tradingwithyg
Sometimes it's not trading which is the winning strategy....We've all been there.... - An alert on your phone draws your attention, "GBP USD up x%" - A news story comes out; in this case "Brexit Breakthrough" and before you know it the markets are going nuts. - You scramble on to the charts to take a look at the action and Holy Moly things are going UPPPPP!!! Naturally your eyes ignore all of the indicators on the chart, and it is natural. I think much like how we read words (We see the shape of the word not the letters which make it up), we see the chart and the big reward, not what could be happening. - We jump into the action, ignore our pattern recognition, ignore our indicators, ignore our structures and well.... at that point it's plain old gambling not trading. - Now, on this occasion as the chart shows, you might have been alright, the pound is shifting up, but it's shifting up on Brexit speculation, big banks buying the pound and news reporting after the fact, not because your strategy tells you you should enter. What happens tomorrow, if there is no Brexit deal? What if you entered now because it looks amazing, nothing more and tomorrow Brexit is off? You lose. - I know, I've been there. Trumps Presidential victory I played the short and the long which happened and made one of the biggest losses of my trading career and all because I was trying to 'catch the wave' through fear of missing out (FOMO) and got it wrong in both directions. - This fortnight, I missed the pound's massive surge, mainly because my capital was committed to other pairs and stocks and I have strict rules on how I allot my capital. And I made a comfortable profit on my other trades; not as much as I could have made on the pound, but the point is, I profited because I followed what I had learned and made a measured, relatively smaller risk trade. And when I looked at GBP USD, my response was, "Okay, I missed it; onto the next one". - In our trading lives we will all have the occasional monster of an opportunity, but as we know, most trading is waiting around for things to happen, getting in and then.... waiting for more stuff to happen. These sorts of big trades are rare and I can guarantee you, the best trading strategy in the world will also not stop you being on the wrong side of them also once in a while. It's just the way of things. Better to follow your strategy and profit when your system tells you to. - FOMO is real people, make sure you're entering for the right reasons!
Education
by StocksForexPro
2
Silver setting up for bullish breakoutSilver trades similar to gold. If there is severe risk aversion, expect for silver to rally. Price is trading near a previous level of resistance. If it can hold, it will become support. I would like to see price retest 16.86 before continuing higher. It would create a confluence of support. Price has already tested DS twice and it would put price near the apex of the triangle, making it prime for a violent break in either direction. If you plan on trading any precious metals, pay close attention to what is happening in politics. There will be a lot of fed speak next week and chances are they will be addressing QE4. Also, pay attention to trade wars as this will be the main driver for risk sentiment.
TVC:SILVERLong
by tradingwithyg
ORBEX: GBPCHF, AUDJPY - Tradetalk & Brexit Signals Mixed! In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #gbpchf and #audjpy minors! Both pairs are showing an identical pattern and are indeed influenced by: AUDJPY - Tradewar tensions but latest from positive developments on the back of a potential partial deal Chinese are willing to do - Positive Home Loans in AU and negative BoJ Corporate Goods Price Index figures GBPCHF - Blury Brexit developments with the risk of an election following an extension increasing - UK-EU talks not looking good despite EU announcing otherwise Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ORBEX: EURUSD, USDJPY - The Risks Of A US-EU TradewarIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #USDJPY #EURUSD weak on: - US-EU potential trade conflict (airbus illegal state aid - WTO depended) - ECB's Germans board member resignation Medium-term #Euro led flows will hang on Lagarde's policy. A potential transition to fiscal tools will be euro positive #USDJPY strong on: - Dovish Evans turned neutral - Positive home sales - No GDP revision - No safe-haven flows - Dollar seen as risk positive Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Retracement Zone for ONDK - Risky Move On Deck Capital, Inc. offers an online platform for small business lending. The Company's platform aggregates and analyzes data points from disparate data sources to assess the creditworthiness of small businesses. Small businesses apply for a term loan or line of credit on the Company's Website, and using its OnDeck Score, the Company makes a funding decision and transfers the funds. The Company offers small businesses a suite of financing options with its term loans and lines of credit that can meet the needs of small businesses throughout their life cycle. Its internal sales force and customer service representatives provide assistance throughout the application process and the life of the loan. Its loans are priced based on a risk assessment generated by its data and analytics engine, which includes the OnDeck Score. Its platform touches every aspect of the customer life cycle, including customer acquisition, sales, scoring and underwriting, funding, and servicing and collections.
OLong
by DEXWireNews
How much of their money can europeans lose in a single day?Disclaimer: For new people, or just the dumb people (I heard there were alot of those in crypto), these are AVERAGE TRUE RANGE numbers. Those numbers do not represent the most or even average you can lose in a day but the trading range in an average day. Days can vary widely... Just look at the NatGas chart, or Bitcoin that has some days in a 2.5% range and then days where the price goes up or down (organically) 20% in 3 hours. The most: Natural Gaz ==> 4% ATR * 10 leverage = 40% a day. NatGas that regularly soars massively and wipes out funds, gaps insanely very regularly, is the one with the most risk allowed. Regulators <3 The least (outside of absolute troll FX minors and probably some mysterious stocks): 10 Year T-Note ==> 0.50% ATR * 5 leverage (30 with FCA) = 2,5% a day. What about FX majors? EURUSD ==> 0.75% ATR * 30 leverage = 22,5% a day. USDJPY ==> 0.75% ATR * 30 leverage = 22,5% a day. GBPUSD ==> 0.85% ATR * 30 leverage = 25,5% a day. EURCHF ==> 0.50% ATR * 30 leverage = 15,0% a day. (probably smallest) GBPJPY ==> 1.00% ATR * 30 leverage = 30,0% a day. (probably largest) What about FX "minors"? AUDUSD ==> 1.00% ATR * 20 leverage = 20% a day. USDZAR ==> 1.50% ATR * 20 leverage = 30% a day. The biggest one I think. USDHKD ==> 0.05% ATR * 20 leverage = 01% a day. ... USDCNH ==> 0.40% ATR * 20 leverage = 08% a day. Smallest one that is not a complete joke. My interest for this collpased with the new restrictions... What about agri? Biggest "major" one is Coffee ==> 3.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 30% a day. Smallest "major" one is Soybean ==> 1.60% ATR * 10 leverage = 16% a day. What about stocks? I cannot check 50,000 tickers, but the typical big ones have ATR around 2%, with the vast majority of > 1B cap between 1 and 3 % a day, so with 5 leverage ==> Typical is 10%, and range is 5-15%. What about my big 3 commodities (Gold Oil Copper)? Gold ==> 1.25% ATR * 20 leverage = 25% a day. Oil ==> 3.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 30% a day. HGC ==> 2.00% ATR * 10 leverage = 20% a day. What about crypto? Bitcoin ==> 5.50% ATR * 2 leverage = 11% a day. With BTC the biggest less risky one you have access to the less risk. Pure regulator logic here. ETHUSD ==> 11.5% ATR * 2 leverage = 23% a day. XRPUSD ==> 13.0% ATR * 2 leverage = 26%. EOSUSD ==> 10.5% ATR * 2 leverage = 21%. Excrement On Shareholders moves less than this bigger ones, does this mean it is more stable and secure? TRXUSD ==> 20.0% ATR * 2 leverage = 40%. I haven't access to this but I checked etoro which I know is a broker very geared towards morons, and surprise suprise TRX is here... So you have the poopiest of cryptos (well in the top 25) fighting for first place with NatGas with leverage adjusted ATR of 40% a day...
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by MrRenev
The Next Recession is probably within 2 years.The “Recession Watch” indicator tracks 7 key economic metrics which have historically preceded US recessions. It provides a real-time indication of incoming recession risk. While not flawless, this indicator gives a good picture of when risk is increasing, and therefore when you might want to start taking some money out of risky assets. All of the last seven recessions were preceded by a risk score of 3 or higher. Six of them were preceded by a risk score of 4 or higher. Based on the indicator hit rate at successfully flagging recessions over the last 50 years, risk scores have the following approximate probabilities of recession: - 0-1: Low - 2: 25% within next 18 months - 3: 30% within next 12 months - 4-7: 50% within next 12 months Note that a score of 3 is not necessarily a cause for panic. After all, there are substantial rewards to be had in the lead up to recessions (averaging 19% following yield curve inversion). For the brave, staying invested until the score jumps to 4+, or until the S&P500 drops below the 200day MA, will likely yield the best returns. Read more about the metric on Medium here: medium.com TradingView Indicator here: Notes on use: - use MONTHLY time period only (the economic metrics are reported monthly) - If you want to view the risk Score (1-7) you need to set your chart axis to "Logarithmic" Enjoy and good luck!
SP:SPX
by capriole_charles
1
Yield Curve Inversion and S&P500 Returns & LossesIn the last 50 years, every time US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later. However, once the market peaks, it drops 37.6% on average. Assuming you can time the market peak perfectly, there is a lot of money to be had. However, the downside risk is a lot greater than the upside opportunity. If you are a long-term “buy-and-hold” investor, with the yield curve having just inverted in August 2019, be prepared to ride a 3- to 5-year roller coaster of highs and lows. At the end, when you step off the ride, you can expect to have roughly the same equity value that you do today.
SP:SPX
by capriole_charles
NO BREAK! But SPY, DIA, and QQQ broke...The Russell ETF could not break out of consolidation, but the other 3 majors did break. The Russell - being the major small cap index - is an indicator of risk. When the Russell is rising, investors are less fearful. When the Russell is falling, investors are cautious ... That's the basic concept anyways. I think this Russell chart is showing that maybe people aren't as optimistic as Thursday's rocket ship would have implied. While the 3 biggest indexes broke through strong resistance pretty convincingly, the Russell stayed put ... it tried, but did not succeed. IWM also bounced off its 50 day MA. In addition to that, Friday's close was less than impressive. I'm betting on at least a bearish start to next week, and possibly for the week as a whole. Jerome Powell, yet again, gave no clear-cut direction to the Fed's interest rate plans, leaving the market to wonder what's going on. All economic indications (and technicals) are pointing towards - at the very least - a strong market correction. I think Powell's speech, mixed with the very poor jobs report, put a bad taste in the markets mouth. I bought some TVIX yesterday, because I'm thinking Monday might be a little ugly. Looking at this IWM chart makes me feel even better about my TVIX purchase ... for Monday anyways.
AMEX:IWMShort
by Bankuur
GPOR - Bullish Divergence Found. Risky But Could TurnGulfport Energy Corp. is an independent oil natural gas exploration and production company. The company focuses on the exploration, exploitation, acquisition and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil in the United States. Its principal producing properties located along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. The company was founded on July 11, 1997 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK. SHORT INTEREST 23.75M 08/15/19 P/E Current 0.98 P/E Ratio (with extraordinary items) 0.73 P/E Ratio (without extraordinary items) 2.67 Average Recommendation: HOLD Average Target Price: 6.79
G
by DEXWireNews
Navigating The Market : Simplified #EURJPY Sept 2nd, 2019The EURJPY had been in a bearish trend. The Yen had been bid due to safe-haven flows thanks to Trump and China trade war. I also believe what is happening in Hong Kong does play it's part as well. Retail sentiment generally bearish on the Yen. The first thing happened after the Sydney open was price managed to break below and closed under last Friday's low (coincided with last week's low as well), followed by a bullish version of a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern (I genuinely forgot what its actually called!). There are plenty of sell stops recorded around the prices between 115.850 to 116.350. I looked at the order books, great % amount of opened buy positions there at 116.650 (the close price of that bullish candle), which I suspect 116.350 price is the averaged stop-loss price (Stoploss is a sell stop for a buy position, vice versa) Sell orders above market price right now, which logically would be the place for everyone to put their sell stops as well as bearish continuation trade. That's too obvious for me and I bet the institutionals would take advantage of that and take the other side of the trade. Look, it could happen (price reverses at 117.00-117.150, but trading is a numbers game, my personal record of statistics suggest it has higher probability that the price would just break that sell stops above market price) My game plan is to scalp a long trade if price taps into the sell stop around 116.350 to 115.580. If price continues to go up (without going down further at 116-115.xx) and respects the sell stop at 117.150-117.00, I will re-adjust my plan as that would be the classic continuation pattern for the underlying bearish trend. I do however anticipating the sell stops at 117.xx to be consumed and the price goes higher towards previous Friday's high. I will look to short if/when that happens. A further move higher right now ((without going down further at 116-115.xx) would be too bad because I want to Long EURJPY short term (because, as I've mentioned above, I am bullish Yen - in other words, bearish EURJPY) but i'm more comfortable if it taps into the liquidity pool.
by sufiansaid