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EURUSD Price: Heightened Risk from a Strong Non-Farm Payroll RelEURUSD – A FURTHER BREAK LOWER IS LIKELY EURUSD remains in a holding pattern ahead of the latest US labor and earnings report with market expectations looking for a stronger release to support the US dollar at its current level. Recent US data has been strong, especially the ADP report and the ISM non-manufacturing/services composite release, and any upside beat in either the jobs or wages component today will hit an already weak EURUSD. Alternatively, a weaker-than-expected report will give the pair a small boost, but the underlying fundamental and technical outlook for EURUSD remains firmly pointed to the downside in the short-to-medium term. A look at government bond spreads between the two show the 2-year US Treasury now offering over 330 basis points more than comparable German debt, while in the10-year space, the US offers around 265 basis points of extra yield. The widening of this yield differential will continue to draw flows towards the US dollar. The daily chart shows support at 1.1509 broken – the late May/early June double touch – and the pair trading under all three moving averages. Fibonacci support at 1.1448 will offer some support ahead of the August 15 low at 1.1301. The downtrend from the September 24 high at 1.18154 remains in place. IG Client Sentiment shows that retail are 55.5% net-long EURUSD. See what this means and how it can affect trading decisions. EURUSD DAILY PRICE CHART (NOVEMBER 2017 – OCTOBER 5, 2018) EURUSD Price: Heightened Risk from a Strong Non-Farm Payroll Release Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1. TO get more information and hourly alert analysis FOLLOW Our Profile- www.tradingview.com
by kabbo12
1
OCLN Origin Clear INC. Very High Risk Reward!ok so this is one of my least favorite charts, but its interesting. This is a water filtering company to be blunt, but they do and serve a much larger picture. In about 10 years, water is going to be like gold, at least fresh clean water, due to the amount we use and pollute. Water filtering will be a big deal in the future, so this could be a huge play but in the longer term. This has been a stock tanking for a long time, practically at a literal bottom. Theres more upside then down. When you see a stock fall like this, you have to think they went bankrupt, or sales are decreased, but thats NOT the case. This company is fairly active, and recently, along with many interviews and videos of their oporations. They reported over DOUBLE sale revenue a few months ago, along with a few recent things happening with the company, along with a new way to oxidize and clean water. anyways, just charting for future reference, I see some upside swing from hitting that sweet 15 number, the increased volume in the last few months shows something going on, as its bigger then any volumes its had in its life. FOLLOW for UPDATES, and check my other charts out! Happy trading, debating and speculating!
OTC:OCLNLong
by ToddGreen
4
It's a loser's game - officiallyThis post is modified and re-posted after it was banned (a matter of fact and the truth). Why? I was said to be promoting a broker's website seemingly because by I identified the source of quotation and said that they were being honest. I have now substituted the name the broker with a fictitious ABCXYZ (which is not the name of any broker as far as I am aware). The rest of the post is the same. I promote nobody - not even myself. ESMA is not a broker. The quotation is directly from an email I received today from ABCXYZ.com ABCXYZ.com has been fully transparent on the risk of losing money on it's platform. Nothing in this educational post is to suggest that people avoid trading. The sole intention of this post is for new and season traders to better understand the risks, and to realise the amount of effort, discipline, training and sacrifice that are needed to become consistently profitable. As a new trader your chances are very very slim, for making consistent profits over months or years. Some people think that it's all about following a set or rules. Well, if it was that simple then 80% of people would just follow rules and be millionaires. That's not going to happen! For novices, the high probability of losing money is nothing to do with any particular broker. It must be something else! I'm afraid the most important factor is hardly ever discussed in forums. What's that? It's about 'trader psychology'. It's that unseen thing - the elephant in the room - that causes the problems. I say, it does not matter what system you use to tackle the markets with, the underlying obstacle is 'your psychology'. It is not about mastering the charts. It's all about self-mastery. Any dissenting opinions? Have your say now. For the avoidance of doubt or suspicion, I am 100% committed to helping other traders develop for absolutely no pecuniary or other advantage to me - ever! In other words, I'll never take you to some site that sells tips, signals, or courses - where you'd start of at free but then have to pay to learn from some 'inner circle'.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Macro Risk-Weighted Index: Pennant Break Ahead of US Election?We've been reporting for over a month now how coincidental it that the risk-rally has stalled at the origin of the GFC supply imbalance 10y ago. Also, how the macro pennant seen in the weekly shows a time projection of breaking around the US mid-term election. However, with the latest rally in risk, we may be just 1 day away from that milestone to happen this very week. Also, one can notice on the upper chart how the 100-hourly MA acts as an excellent indicator to determine the times when the market enters macro risk-on mode (above the 100-hma). The chart definitely earns its fair share of merit for one to follow and to us, it has become a great reflection of the mood in the markets. Trade safe!
S
by FlowState
Risk-On but Beware of a PullbackBonds have broken a ranging period that they've held for months. Yields are near 7-year highs. That being said there's a big retracement starting to form on 30min/4hour charts so watch for it to test one of the Fibs. As you see it just broke 236 so it’s likely it will make a run for 382. The Kovach Indicators seem to confirm this. It seems we will likely form another ranging period before the markets move further. Remember how much trouble we had with 3%... As for the sentiment, it’s difficult to say. There do not seem to be any significant developments in the trade war saga. There's this Kavanaugh witch hunt, which is likely to go the way of the Russia investigation: holding an empty sack. I think investors are starting to catch on that the deep state is going to do anything and everything to spite Trump and derail anything he tries to do or anyone he tries to appoint. Stocks are looking flat, but they're near highs. Expect some retracement here. This agrees with my above assessment in bonds. Both have pushed respective highs/lows, so a retracement is due. Also, regarding stocks, lately there seems to be a lot of stocks that have had their price targets raised, which is always generally risk-on. Finally, Brexit talks seem to be progressing toward conclusion despite this .
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
USDJPY: Don't Sell...YetThe Yen continues to underperform all major pairs, including the Dollar. Yen weakness rather than Dollar strength is currently responsible for the gains that the Dollar has made, retracing some 700 pips off of the March lows. and, more recently, 230 pips off the August low. Technically we're looking at a potential alternative cypher pattern, though I make almost no trade decisions off of harmonic patterns. Currently the USDJPY -0.06% is up against resistance at the 112.00 handle, which is also the 68.1% fib retracement off the July 19th high. I've been on a short bias since I first posted about the pair after getting a short entry signal using my trading methodology, which you can read here. After briefly penetrating my entry zone, the Dollar rallied but has yet to invalidate the trade setup. I'll be watching the next week or so, monitoring what appears to be increasing Dollar weakness. My prediction is that we'll see a low-conviction rally up towards the supply zone (red rectangle ) with little to no momentum. If risk-off returns and investors begin purchasing the YEN than we'll likely see a USDJPY -0.06% sell-off. For now I'm holding.
by thetradeWELL
Risk Sentiment: Pennant to Break on US Mid-Term Election?When experimenting with various financial instruments, one has to confess how strikingly coincidental it is that the risk-rally has stalled at the origin of the GFC supply imbalance 10y ago. At the same time, if one is to project when the macro pennant seen in the weekly may break, it also falls on the same week as the US mid-term election, which few can argue, definitely earns its fair share of credit, to inject enough volatility to see a resolution of the pattern?
S
by FlowState
Risk-Weighted Index Hints 'Risk On' is Back Near TermAs our proprietary risk-weighted index shows, the recovery above the 100-ema in the hourly chart suggests that in the short-term, risk-seeking conditions are likely to be dominant, even if major events as the ECB, BoE or US CPI will also have a major impact in volatility. The index has been mainly assisted by the sell-off in the USD, allowing a significant recovery in the MSCI EM index, while global equities remain underpinned, recovering its early losses on hopes for a resumption of trade talks with China. As a general rule, when the index is above the 100-ema, currencies associated with riskier strategies such as the AUD, NZD, GBP, CAD should benefit against the likes of the JPY, USD.
S
by FlowState
Risk-Weighted Index: In An Established Downward Channel After cracking the 100-hourly MA, the risk-weighted index is clearly communicating that the dynamics may favor a re-adjustment higher in the value of the US dollar and the Japanese yen, given the depressed level both currencies ended at on Wednesday. The latest impulsive leg in risk FX, led by the renewed optimism over the Brexit negotiations, distorted what should have been a much soggier price action in risk trades, as the sell-off in emerging markets continue with the clock ticking away before the US imposes an additional 25% tariffs in $200b of Chinese products. The overly short position held by leverage accounts in G4 FX vs USD caused another rather epic short-squeeze which is not being backed up by risk sentiment, as depicted by the chart we present. What this means is that as long as the downward channel in the risk index continues its course, a bid in the Japanese yen and the US dollar, especially on low levels of support, may see good buying opportunities.
SShort
by FlowState
This Chart Proves Risk Sentiment Dynamics Rule Forex AtmAs the trading war between the US and China edges closer, as Canada and the US struggle to hash out a NAFTA deal, as emerging currency markets implode, the markets are taking note of such fractious times by behaving based on risk sentiment. What this means is that in the short-term, if one monitors our risk-weighted index, which takes into account 9 risk-sensitive assets, all equally weighted, it will help you gauge the next potential moves. The increase in correlations (daily on a 30-day period) in risk-sensitive pairs such as all Yen crosses or G4 FX vs US Dollar is evidence that the market's main theme and upcoming ebbs and flows will be determined by a sense of higher or lower risk aversion, therefore, by adjusting the risk index to your most suitable trading timeframe, you will be able to get some powerful clues as to where sentiment stands at any time to provide potential trading opportunities if divergences are spotted.
SEducation
by FlowState
This Chart Proves Risk Sentiment Dynamics Rule Forex AtmAs the trading war between the US and China edges closer, as Canada and the US struggle to hash out a NAFTA deal, as emerging currency markets implode, the markets are taking note of such fractious times by behaving based on risk sentiment. What this means is that in the short-term, if one monitors our risk-weighted index, which takes into account 9 risk-sensitive assets, all equally weighted, it will help you gauge the next potential moves. The increase in correlations (daily on a 30-day period) in risk-sensitive pairs such as all Yen crosses or G4 FX vs US Dollar is evidence that the market's main theme and upcoming ebbs and flows will be determined by a sense of higher or lower risk aversion, therefore, by adjusting our index to your most suitable trading timeframe, you will be able to get some powerful clues as to where sentiment stands at any time and therefore, provide potential trading opportunities if divergences are spotted.
S
by FlowState
Risk-Weighted Index: Violation of 100-ema Heralds Trouble AheadThe risk-weighted index, mainly driven by a sharp decline in the EM MSCI index, further anchored by a fall in US 30-yr Treasury yields and strength in the Yen and Swiss Franc, is communicating that the outlook for risk appetite looks quite poor this Friday and heading into next week's trading. The hourly chart has broken below its 100-hourly ema, which has been an accurate measure to assess the positive/negative dynamics in the overall risk sentiment. The sudden collapse in risk below the moving average is a red flag that suggests the likes of the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc may find further capital inflows. On the broader context, we present a weekly chart, to understand where we are in the risk cycle. The index is retesting the origin of the GFC supply imbalance, struggling to make further gains, and most importantly, an ascending trendline, which has been a precursor of capitulation in risk, has already been breached.
SShort
by FlowState
USD/JPY: Diverging Away from a Worsening Risk ProfileDivergences taking place between a cheap Yen and the deterioration in risk flows. While it may struggle to muster gains against a bullish USD, expect the Yen to regain ground, especially on the outcome of a breakout of the trendline. Monitor the breakout of the trendline closely. Note, the index encapsulates the most risk-sensitive asset classes, which when combined, allows us to make sense of the actual risk on/risk off profile in the FX market, with some subtleties that we will explore in coming days and weeks. For instance, is the index driven purely by USD strength? There might be some outlier days, but by and large, it's a great predictive index to use when trading risky FX pairs the likes of the Yen, Franc, US Dollar of metals such as gold.
Short
by FlowState
The Risk-Weighted Index Pain(t)s a Gloomy Picture With regards to the constructive risk profile, pay attention here. It’s important not to be too complacent as the short term recovery in the risk-weighted index occurs within a wider negative context. From a top down analysis, we've drawn a few trendlines to represent the perils that entail for risky assets each time a violation occurs, which since the GFC, tends to signals a topping phase in risk, and if history is any indication, it heralds an eventual market capitulation as the chart illustrates. By drawing ascending trendlines in the risk rallies seen since the GFC in 2018, we can notice that everytime the market has breached the line, the capitulation, in a larger or smaller degree has ensued. As we point out, expect a potential outperformance of currencies the likes of USD, JPY, CHF going forward as the risk rally phase fizzles out.
SShort
by FlowState
2
Hogs and pesosIn this screencast I focus on 'lean hogs' and the Mexican Peso v Sterling. The core issue is the ranging pattern on the daily time frame (over the periods I'm looking at). In general these two instruments are highly volatile and risky. However, the pattern creates expectations (not predictions). In other posts I pointed out that certain instruments have a certain personality to them. They behave differently in their volatility compared to others. One other that I did not put in the video is CADNOK on the daily or weekly time frame. I'm not saying that everybody should trade these instruments. They are certainly not for everybody because the sort of stop losses required on entering on these are very high indeed. So are the potential gains. Extreme stalking, timing and patience are required with these ultra-volatile charts. Success in the markets also involves finding and exploiting instruments that have their own particular patterns. Go forth and explore. :) :)
Education
by Captain_Walker
Risk on/Risk off, XLY:XLP ratios, THE Real money flow indicator.Was recently shown this little gem of a ratio chart that will help gauge strength to certain markets such as the stocks and other financial instruments as the S&P, Dow Jones etc So what does it all mean?? The ratio of two diametrically opposed asset classes often provides insightful clues about what investors are doing. The XLY:XLP ratio is a perfect example. Its not a hypothetical as it uses real money data based on what investors are DOING and NOT what they maybe thinking or projecting... XLY represents the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF. XLP represents the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF. XLY is the ETF which tracks the consumer discretionary sector XLY’s top 5 holdings are... Comcast (CMCSK), Walt Disney (DIS), Amazon.com (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), McDonald’s (MCD). XLP tracks the consumer staples sector, with top holdings of... Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), Wal-Mart (WMT), CVS Caremark (CVS). So how does this affect markets? When the chart value rises its a clear indicator that people are happy to spend freely and without caution, investors will look to increase risk, where as if the value starts to go down and decline, people are spending more on everyday essential items and thus stock markets are in shrinkage, decline and investors are taking LESS risk. we can clearly see how this chart reflects current highs on the stock indices if we compare to the current S&P500, Russel, Dow Jones and so on If this article has helped or you have any further questions, please leave them in the comments below.....
AMEX:XLYEducation
by majorlee
1
Scenario: up or down? Scenario: up or down? Ethereum didn’t exactly do as we thought it would. We didn't get a clean break of our breakout level, and went down quite violently while bitcoin remained steady. Let’s stick to the charts and see what they tell us to do. DAILY First of all, We see the giant downwards channel we’re working on. We’re hanging on to the median line, and we want to see that hold to consider bullish trades Second, price is moving in an upwards channel. Second, ichimoku indicates that the downward move is consolidating, as all indicators move into equilibrium. How to treat this? Our setup remains valid, although we don’t think the move to be as strong as we initially expected (as bitcoin pushed through to the max target, ethereum didn't make it past the breakout level). Now if we get a clean break of the breakout level we’ll probably reach the max target around 565 . Let’s get a better look on the 2HR chart 2HR There’s a few interesting things going on here. Let’s break it down. First, look at the breakout of the prior breakout level. We broke out with an enormous hammer, followed by another enormous hammer, and then down. This was not a clean break, and we did not get in here. Traders getting in on conditional orders should be holding through, as our setup has not been invalidated, and are still on our way to our target. Now when do we get in? As we can see price is above the kumo, and tenkan and kijun are too. One possibility is getting in off a kijun bounce or kumo bounce around the 465 area. Another possibility is getting in on a clean break of the breakout level around 495, which will give us a much higher probability of reaching our target than entering now. Especially as we’re about to touch the kumo on the daily chart, possibly pushing the price further down in stead of up. If we do head downwards towards invalidation we may set up for a short trade, but more on that when the time comes So, again, and again, and again, we wait. We know our breakout level, we know our target, and we know our risk. We’ll see where price moves, do as it tells us to do. Breakout level: 495 Max target: 565 Invalidation 438 We hope you enjoyed this trade, and as always, remember, Be patient, only time will bring you profit. p.s. we regularly update our scenario's, follow us and receive to receive those updates!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by DariusZen