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Hogs and pesosIn this screencast I focus on 'lean hogs' and the Mexican Peso v Sterling. The core issue is the ranging pattern on the daily time frame (over the periods I'm looking at). In general these two instruments are highly volatile and risky. However, the pattern creates expectations (not predictions). In other posts I pointed out that certain instruments have a certain personality to them. They behave differently in their volatility compared to others. One other that I did not put in the video is CADNOK on the daily or weekly time frame. I'm not saying that everybody should trade these instruments. They are certainly not for everybody because the sort of stop losses required on entering on these are very high indeed. So are the potential gains. Extreme stalking, timing and patience are required with these ultra-volatile charts. Success in the markets also involves finding and exploiting instruments that have their own particular patterns. Go forth and explore. :) :)
Education
by Captain_Walker
Risk on/Risk off, XLY:XLP ratios, THE Real money flow indicator.Was recently shown this little gem of a ratio chart that will help gauge strength to certain markets such as the stocks and other financial instruments as the S&P, Dow Jones etc So what does it all mean?? The ratio of two diametrically opposed asset classes often provides insightful clues about what investors are doing. The XLY:XLP ratio is a perfect example. Its not a hypothetical as it uses real money data based on what investors are DOING and NOT what they maybe thinking or projecting... XLY represents the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF. XLP represents the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF. XLY is the ETF which tracks the consumer discretionary sector XLY’s top 5 holdings are... Comcast (CMCSK), Walt Disney (DIS), Amazon.com (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), McDonald’s (MCD). XLP tracks the consumer staples sector, with top holdings of... Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), Wal-Mart (WMT), CVS Caremark (CVS). So how does this affect markets? When the chart value rises its a clear indicator that people are happy to spend freely and without caution, investors will look to increase risk, where as if the value starts to go down and decline, people are spending more on everyday essential items and thus stock markets are in shrinkage, decline and investors are taking LESS risk. we can clearly see how this chart reflects current highs on the stock indices if we compare to the current S&P500, Russel, Dow Jones and so on If this article has helped or you have any further questions, please leave them in the comments below.....
AMEX:XLYEducation
by majorlee
1
Scenario: up or down? Scenario: up or down? Ethereum didn’t exactly do as we thought it would. We didn't get a clean break of our breakout level, and went down quite violently while bitcoin remained steady. Let’s stick to the charts and see what they tell us to do. DAILY First of all, We see the giant downwards channel we’re working on. We’re hanging on to the median line, and we want to see that hold to consider bullish trades Second, price is moving in an upwards channel. Second, ichimoku indicates that the downward move is consolidating, as all indicators move into equilibrium. How to treat this? Our setup remains valid, although we don’t think the move to be as strong as we initially expected (as bitcoin pushed through to the max target, ethereum didn't make it past the breakout level). Now if we get a clean break of the breakout level we’ll probably reach the max target around 565 . Let’s get a better look on the 2HR chart 2HR There’s a few interesting things going on here. Let’s break it down. First, look at the breakout of the prior breakout level. We broke out with an enormous hammer, followed by another enormous hammer, and then down. This was not a clean break, and we did not get in here. Traders getting in on conditional orders should be holding through, as our setup has not been invalidated, and are still on our way to our target. Now when do we get in? As we can see price is above the kumo, and tenkan and kijun are too. One possibility is getting in off a kijun bounce or kumo bounce around the 465 area. Another possibility is getting in on a clean break of the breakout level around 495, which will give us a much higher probability of reaching our target than entering now. Especially as we’re about to touch the kumo on the daily chart, possibly pushing the price further down in stead of up. If we do head downwards towards invalidation we may set up for a short trade, but more on that when the time comes So, again, and again, and again, we wait. We know our breakout level, we know our target, and we know our risk. We’ll see where price moves, do as it tells us to do. Breakout level: 495 Max target: 565 Invalidation 438 We hope you enjoyed this trade, and as always, remember, Be patient, only time will bring you profit. p.s. we regularly update our scenario's, follow us and receive to receive those updates!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by DariusZen
VIX / 2H : Volatility expected to grind back up...Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. If you want to see my chart more closely, click the share button below that video.. You will be able to have access to the chart used in that video. Indicators used in this forecast are PRO Sinewave BETA & PRO Momentum . You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators If you have questions about the topics discussed in that video post a comment with "@PRO_Indicators" handle. Kindly, Phil If you want to learn more about the basic rules to trade with my indicators here's the educational video link :
TVC:VIXLong
by PRO_Indicators
EURUSD Short at supply areaOn the EURUSD we are currently bouncing between the two red 4hr supply and demand areas. As we are currently in a downtrend and in neither an oversold or overbought area, we have a short bias. On the 4hr we are moving into a supply area (yellow) which we didn't trade last week due to the entry being triggered pretty late on friday. This luckily gave us a better entry point and so we are entering now instead. Hopefully we can get a small bounce for a 1:1 Risk:Reward, as indicated on the chart. Remember to trade with the probabilities. No single trade determines our performance, we will all have a loser once in a while. Take care, TheSupportResistanceTrader
Short
by TheSupportResistanceTrader
USDCHF long at demand areaUSDCHF is moving up between higher timeframe supply and demand zones, far from overbought levels. It is also in a 4hr uptrend which leaves us with a bullish bias. We are currently moving out of a 4hr demand area which has previously shown big strength, breaking the top on 9/5-2018. Due to the new week, I wanted to wait for a couple of hours for the market to stabilize before trading. I think the market is now fairly stable and so I go long from the current price. Hopefully we can get a quick upmove for a 1:1 Risk:Reward, as indicated on the chart. Remember to trade with the probabilities. No single trade determines our performance, we will all have a loser once in a while. Take care, TheSupportResistanceTrader
Long
by TheSupportResistanceTrader
UFO revelations could rock the world's financial markets. This is under the category of 'Beyond Technical Analysis'. It is about systematic risk i.e. something previously unrecognised that causes major upset in markets. What's *UFOs* got to do with this? Just about everything. Your world has been built on a sense of security that we are alone in the universe. People's religious beliefs, their sense of who is in power and so on has depended on that for the last few hundred years. Now as World *UFO* day - 2nd July 2018 - approaches there is emerging evidence that *UFOs* are real. I do not say that everybody will suddenly change their belief systems overnight. What a lot of people do is, avoid or ignore hard evidence - especially the kind that causes them anxiety. But some people in a minority are different - they are swayed by evidence. What does it mean if *UFOs* are real - and no longer a joke. For starters it means that there is a power greater than governments and financial institutions. That is then likely to cause fear and uncertainty in the minds of some. What if the *UFO* people decide to take control - for example - is a thought that will cross the minds of some. Read around and see how secret files due to be released from the National Archives were withheld. Further references: See this article: Are we alone? Scientists revisit the question of aliens before National UFO Day And Secret dossier reveals British spies spent half a century trying to catch a UFO so they could use its alien technology to build SUPERWEAPONS Dr David Clarke's guide - 15 pages cross-referenced to the National Archives. There's something going on out there and they don't want you to know about it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Risk management demystified, examples and facts proven.Greetings, I've spent a considerable amount of time trying to find the magic formula to stay profitable, I've read books, I've heard speeches, I've talked to pros, and I've stayed profitable, BUT... I've also lost quite a bit, I tried coding my strategy to see how it would really perform without sentiments, as executed by a machine and I was really suprised, no strategy surpassed the 40% profitability mark, so I decided to write down the axioms of my trading strategy and code them the best I could, these 5 axioms are: 1- Direction of the entry, two ways to do it, follow the trend or pick a reversal point. 2- Entry point, if following the trend use momentum indicators, if reversing, candlestick patterns, S&R or trailing stop buy/sell orders are good. 3- Risk management, specially trailing stop loss. 4- News handling (this might be included in point 3, since it's mostly updating your stop loss before big news. 5- Favor the most likely trades out of the 29 pairs. (this one can't be done on trading view obviously) For point 1 there are a lot of AWESOME indicators out there: RSI, MACD, Stochastics, EMA, ALMA, BB, ichiomoku, renko, heikin ashi, and many many others, including my own SCSM indicator. Point 2 isn't as important as many may think, and I will prove it later, however in order to avoid unnecessary risk I would say to avoid opening positions near major news releases. Point 3 is the core of this idea and I will explain it in detail later. Point 4 is important too, but not crucial for longer term trading, the really important thing about news announcements are the price spikes and the SL hunts, meaning you need to either widen your SL or close and reopen or tighten your SL considerably. Point 5 is one of the most important points, there are many symbols to trade, and while I don't encourage trading everything at the same time, diversification helps reduce risk and why trade two weak currencies when you can trade a strong against a weak? Now, to point 3, take a look at the chart of the idea, a profitable GBPUSD strategy on the daily candle over 10 years, blue arrows mean buy at the open, purple arrows mean either SL or trailing stop loss close or condition close (such as too tight BB for example), red arrows mean sell at the open. Now, take a look at this chart: imgur.com I need to use external sources since TV doesn't show the strategy results in the snapshots, sorry for that. Anyways, the strategy IS profitable even taking the opposite signals, HOW!?!?!?!, that makes no sense, or does it? The trick is simple, though the number vary on each symbol, for this particular case (GBPUSD) the strategy opens a trade and places a SL 2400 ticks away from the price. Now, if price reaches 750 ticks in profit it activates a trailing stop loss of 750 ticks, meaning it will breakeven or earn cash no matter what. This may sound a little weird at first, since the risk is higher than the reward in theory, but remember that markets are VERY volatile, it's very possible for a trade to hit those 750 ticks in profit in one or two days if we're in a range, not to mention if we are in a trend. Let's tweak those numbers and set the signals normally but with a 200 ticks SL and see what happens... For starters, THIS happens: i.imgur.com Meaning we get stopped too often, causing serious psychological damage, so I'm going to reduce the test to only 3 years and look the results... imgur.com Wow... just wow, too tight SL is a sure formula to losing, but what about tight TP?, let's do the math again, increasing the SL and using a small TP, for 200 ticks TP and 1000 ticks SL this is the result: imgur.com I've reached the limit of characters for this idea, but I'm not done.
Education
by EilderJorgeGarcia
1
RIsk management with REAL trades not examples from past dataThis is a sequel to our first post on risk management with trades we have actually executed and not using examples from past market data. In this chart, we show how seven trades would be executed and with said trades increase our profits while minimizing our risk. Closing our trades early protect us from any possible "flash crash" situations. You can have a 30% trade success rate and still be profitable, or even have a 90% winrate and not be profitable. We use real trade examples in this chart, with all of the details below. Even the losing ones. Make sure to browse them if you like by clicking them below. POST 1 POST 2 POST 3 Take note that no matter what, we stick to our original trade plan and once our stops get hit we'll just take the loss then sit on the sides waiting for a new trading opportunity. POST 4 POST 5 Closing our position at a high price when we see an indication of price reversal allows us to re-enter at a lower price and buy more with our initial position. In these specific trades, we use resistance, support, candlestick patterns, and flag patterns as our confirmations. Closing our position at a high price when we see an indication of price reversal allows us to re-enter at a lower price and buy more with our initial position. With every trade that is made, stops and take profits are adjusted with each position. Hover your mouse cursor over each area to see why a trade was executed! There are trading opportunities every day. Don't be in such a rush to always have a position open. Trading emotionally is an easy way to get burnt. These calculations are based on the starting principle of $1,000 USD ** We actually lost less on the trades that didn't go through, because we can adjust our stops to our entry so we'd lose nothing but thats a post for another day! ** FAQ Now how can you use this strategy to your benefit? When you open a position and have your stops in place, and when you're in profit keep a close eye out for reversals; when the price begins to reverse close your position and continue to observe the price. When the price is done correcting and is lower, watch for a bullish reversal to continue its run. When this is done re-enter with new stops. I don't trade flags or some of the techniques used to predict a movement. What should I do? Regardless of how you predict price movements, you can refer to this as a way to trade a market consistently in order to make more profit while minimizing your risk. This is merely one example of how you as a trader can create a trading plan that you stick to consistently to make pips! What if you closed it and it kept going up? At times it's better safe than sorry. we do this Why not just hold? In some markets, a price can reach a certain point and not return to it for months or even years. I definitely don't have the time to be watching charts constantly to be able to do this! Anything worth doing is worth overdoing. Besides, Tradingview has very nice tools available for all of us to enjoy. Simply setting an alert on a trend line will help! We appreciate all feedback and suggestions if you have any feel free to comment below! Wish you all the best. Have a great weekend everyone!
ZEducation
by 162Trading
9
Weekend Quickie- Time to Pick Up Some Protection, Puts on the Q?Are there many reasons for the overall market to go higher? Other than the resolution of U.S. and China trade concerns, there don't seem to be a lot of good reasons for the stock market to rise as a whole. Back in March, traders were discussing "the most anticipated selloff of all time" as trade, political, and monetary fears were sending the market down off its highs. Concurrently, traders were gearing up for a meteoric advance in prices as earnings came in strong. Judging by the price action, these two theories are in vigorous, directly opposed but equal competition with each other, and as a result we can see the QQQ trading in a volatile stalemate. Indeed, most earnings are coming in very strong, but with undertones of lackluster guidance. Guidance aside, market wisdom dictates that good reasons are needed for prices to climb (traders\investors often need good reasons to buy), but prices can fall on their own account. Are there many reasons for the indices to head higher? Are there many reasons for the indices not to fall? As uncertainty continues, traders are considering downside protection with puts or short positions on the market, even as upside bets are being made on certain stocks and sectors. Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together. Thanks again! See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/ ** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by holsturr