Gbpnzd,pretty dead...still bias to downsideStill on the downside for shorts...watching on the h1.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Risk
Usd uptrend still intactNear term still bullish on USD, simply put, pullbacks will be opportunity for me to go long .So yup, bias on Majors to still go down.
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If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Banks Across Europe Pause for Breath after Mammoth Rate Hike RunHello guys, my idea on EURGBP is that we are overall in a uptrend and due to the pause for breath after the mammoth rate hike run the trend might reverse or continue little higher before we expect a reversal to the downside.. trade safe. James ❤
Risk Management 1I firmly believe that risk management is the most important factor in trading, even more important than strategy in my mind, and if you're going to maintain some discipline to something, then please let it be risk management...
A good strategy with bad risk management WILL blow your account, but a bad strategy, with good risk management will still keep your account alive and in the game.
For the purposes of this idea, we will use a $1000 account size, on the assumption that most newer traders are around this figure.
So what is good risk management?
We hear that risking 1% per trade is good, but then following up with 50 trades a day isn't exactly in line with that.
Conversely, risking 5% per trade once a day isn't exactly the middle ground either, so what should your risk be?
First off, let me just tell you that I, nor any other trader, professional or amateur can tell you what your set risk should be as there is no set answer. It is one that only you can decide.
But to give you an idea of where to start, lets assume you have back tested a strategy which is known to be profitable over time but you know it has had 7 losses in a row and which is likely to happen again.
So, a $1000 account,
Lets assume you risk 2% per trade, and those 7 losses come around. You've now lost 14% of your account. Are you comfortable losing $140 in the space of 7 trades?
1% risk per trade is 7% loss of the account, or $70. Are you comfortable with that?
Maybe going to 0.5% is easier for you which is $35.
This is how you should come up with your risk per trade percentage. Not from me, not from anyone else, it has to be you. Forget the "I want to win big, and if I risk 2% per trade, and make a 1:3RR winner, then I have gained 6, 0.5% would have only made me 1.5% growth" Forget the winners, they look after themselves, its the losers that will eat you up if your risk is too much.
Another point to suggest is that if you place a trade, and you are somewhat uncomfortable watching the price slowly go towards your stop loss, then chances are your position or risk is too big. So lower it. If you aren't flinching at the potential loss, then its probably too low of a risk and maybe increase it a little bit
Lets also say your trade risk is 2% maximum, at a time. That means if you have 1 trade open, you have a 2% risk on that, if you wish to have 2 trades open, you risk 1% on each equating to 2% overall, or you bring the stops in so the overall risk is 2%. e.g. bring one to breakeven and the other maintains a stop of 2%.
Another question to ask yourself is are you profitable? For example the 90 90 90 rule. 90% of traders lose 90% of their account in the first 90 days. Though this statistic is somewhat contradicted by the ForEx chatroom, as everyone in there is a 'professional'.
If you aren't consistently profitable, then I would suggest go to a simulator, but if you don't want to do that, then I would argue even 0.5% is too much. Again, its about keeping your account alive long enough for you to become profitable.
So now you have set your risk per trade that you are comfortable with. Brilliant.
Now, what are you willing to lose a day? Lets assume you have settled on 1% per trade, are you willing to lose one trade a day and call it quits leaving you 1% down, or 10 times a day and potentially lose 10%? 2% daily loss, 3, 4, 5? Find it, do not exceed it
If you like to be in and out of trades but are only willing to risk a 2% daily drawdown, then maybe a 0.5% risk per trade is good for you, as it affords you 4 trades before you have to walk away. If you're comfortable losing 5%, maybe 1% a trade is good for you, offering 5 trades or 2 trades of 2%. You have to make these choices, write them in big bold letters on next to your trading station if you have to, but once made stick to them.
I want to put this out there as well, that I am not giving you these numbers, pick one and go from there. I'm asking you to think about your risk exposure on serious level as that is ultimately what will make you either a good trader, or one who thinks its a scam after losing all of your money.
Not every day is green, nor is every week. Thats the reality of this game.
For me personally, I dont wish to lose more than 2% a day. And in fact my losing days drawdown of the last 30 days are as follows:
Aug 25th -0.97%
Aug 31st -1.05%
Sept 5th -2.05%
Sept 19th -0.27%
Sept 20th -2.04%
Sept 21st -1.04%
All other days were either profitable, or not traded. I did have a 9.22% gain day on Sept 7th which completely writes off all these losses and gave me an overall gain of a few percent, and the rest of the winning days have grown my account.
Now, and be honest with yourself, are you doing this the other way around?
Losing 9% in a day, for 7 days of the month with the winning days being around 2% gains. It doesn't math. Restrict the losses. The winners take care of themselves and will always come around, same as the losses will always come around. But, the game is to stop those losses spiralling out of control and eating into the winners. Only you, and you alone can reduce these risks to yourself. Its you who has to have the discipline to say, nah, enough is enough. I'm done for the day. Not with the mindset of just one more, or this next one will be the winner.
LEVERAGE! BEWARE!
Moving onto something that is probably even more important than the aforementioned risk per trade is leverage, and margin.
The amount of people who are ignorant to the fact that say "ive a 2% stop loss, thats all I can lose" is frankly scary.
Leverage is money, given to you by the broker to trade bigger positions.
If you have a $1000 account, with no leverage, you can buy 1000 dollars in the forex markets.
If you have 50:1 leverage, you can buy 1000 dollars in the forex markets, with just $20 of your account. Its purpose is to enable you to free up your account, trade larger sizes with less up front. Or you could buy $50,000 and the broker lends you the other 49k and you put up the 1k.
Which brings us to margin , which is the money you put up front to the broker as a guarantee for the loan, or the leverage.
Now, I was watching a youtube guru the other day, who had an account of $100,000 dollars and was using a 2% risk with a 3 pip stop trading the EU. Simulator of course.
This is a scary and terrifying way to teach new aspiring traders. If you don't know why, then hopefully, you walk away from this with a better understanding of what is actually happening in the background when you press buy or sell.
Okay, so we all can agree that 2% of 100,000 is $2000 dollars right?
He has a 3 pip stop loss, meaning price per pip must be $666.66
(2000/3)
100000 units a standard lot and 1 pip is roughly $10
10000 units is a mini lot, and 1 pip is roughly $1
1000 units a micro lot, and 1 pip is roughly $0.10
This guy needs to get a value of $666.66 per pip.
So with some maths and a calculator, we can come to the conclusion that he would need a position size of 6,666,667 units of currency
He would need to use all of his $100,000 margin, with a leverage of 66:1 minimum to achieve this position in real life, and even then, it wouldnt breathe. It would be margin called within a second, IF the broker even allowed it.
With 100:1 leverage, he would be able to get into the trade and all is good, fine and dandy, no margin call, no brokers banging on his door...
That is, until a news spike comes out and drives price 30 pips in the opposite direction to his position and skips past his stop like it isn't there
30 pips at a cost of 666 per pip isnt 2000, or 2% of his account.
Its actually 10 times that and $19,980 rinsed. Gone. Blown. Bye bye. That is the damage that over leveraged positions do. His 100k account would be sat at $81,020. Almost 20% loss in 1 trade, at the wrong time
Watch this video of EURCHF in 2015, and whilst watching it, imagine what your account would look like, over leveraged, on the brink of margin position on the wrong side of this market.
www.youtube.com
Price dropped roughly 1000 pips in a few seconds, and over 1500 in the space of an hour.
Where would Mr youtuber be if he was in there with his $100,000 account, 2 percent risk long on EURCHF on this day, at $666 per pip
Well its gone, for sure. In fact he lost his account 6 times over and ultimately has to find $660,000 from somewhere... a 2% risk isn't the only risk. Remember that when you're balls deep in a position, your margin is screaming and news is coming!!
I wish you all be safe in trading, and if you aren't green, don't be too red!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Usd as mentioned still on the upsideThough the pullback throughout the week till fomc, we see that USD still made higher high,trend still intact,just take note of the overhead R
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Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Kelly Criterion and other common position-sizing methodsWhat is position sizing & why is it important?
Position size refers to the amount of risk - money, contracts, equity, etc. - that a trader uses when entering a position on the financial market.
We assume, for ease, that traders expect a 100% profit or loss as a result of the profit lost.
Common ways to size positions are:
Using a set amount of capital per trade . A trader enters with $100 for example, every time. This means that no matter what the position is, the maximum risk of it will be that set capital.
It is the most straight-forward way to size positions, and it aims at producing linear growth in their portfolio.
Using a set amount of contracts per trade . A trader enters with 1 contract of the given asset per trade. When trading Bitcoin, for example, this would mean 1 contract is equal to 1 Bitcoin.
This approach can be tricky to backtest and analyse, since the contract’s dollar value changes over time. A trade that has been placed at a given time when the dollar price is high may show as a bigger win or loss, and a trade at a time when the dollar price of the contract is less, can be shown as a smaller win or loss.
Percentage of total equity - this method is used by traders who decide to enter with a given percentage of their total equity on each position.
It is commonly used in an attempt to achieve ‘exponential growth’ of the portfolio size.
However, the following fictional scenario will show how luck plays a major role in the outcome of such a sizing method.
Let’s assume that the trader has chosen to enter with 50% of their total capital per position.
This would mean that with an equity of $1000, a trader would enter with $500 the first time.
This could lead to two situations for the first trade:
- The position is profitable, and the total equity now is $1500
- The position is losing, and the total equity now is $500.
When we look at these two cases, we can then go deeper into the trading process, looking at the second and third positions they enter.
If the first trade is losing, and we assume that the second two are winning:
a) 500 * 0.5 = 250 entry, total capital when profitable is 750
b) 750 * 0.5 = 375 entry, total capital when profitable is $1125
On the other hand, If the first trade is winning, and we assume that the second two are winning too:
a) 1500 * 0.5 = 750 entry, total capital when profitable is $2250
b) 2250 * 0.5 = 1125 entry, total capital when profitable is $3375
Let’s recap: The trader enters with 50% of the capital and, based on the outcome of the first trade, even if the following two trades are profitable, the difference between the final equity is:
a) First trade lost: $1125
b) First trade won: $3375
This extreme difference of $2250 comes from the single first trade, and whether it’s profitable or not. This goes to show that luck is extremely important when trading with percentage of equity, since that first trade can go any way.
Traders often do not take into account the luck factor that they need to have to reach exponential growth . This leads to very unrealistic expectations of performance of their trading strategy.
What is the Kelly Criterion?
The percentage of equity strategy, as we saw, is dependent on luck and is very tricky. The Kelly Criterion builds on top of that method, however it takes into account factors of the trader’s strategy and historical performance to create a new way of sizing positions.
This mathematical formula is employed by investors seeking to enhance their capital growth objectives. It presupposes that investors are willing to reinvest their profits and expose them to potential risks in subsequent trades. The primary aim of this formula is to ascertain the optimal allocation of capital for each individual trade.
The Kelly criterion encompasses two pivotal components:
Winning Probability Factor (W) : This factor represents the likelihood of a trade yielding a positive return. In the context of TradingView strategies, this refers to the Percent Profitable.
Win/Loss Ratio (R) : This ratio is calculated by the maximum winning potential divided by the maximum loss potential. It could be taken as the Take Profit / Stop-Loss ratio. It can also be taken as the Largest Winning Trade / Largest Losing Trade ratio from the backtesting tab.
The outcome of this formula furnishes investors with guidance on the proportion of their total capital to allocate to each investment endeavour.
Commonly referred to as the Kelly strategy, Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, the formula can be expressed as follows:
Kelly % = W - (1 - W) / R
Where:
Kelly % = Percent of equity that the trader should put in a single trade
W = Winning Probability Factor
R = Win/Loss Ratio
This Kelly % is the suggested percentage of equity a trader should put into their position, based on this sizing formula. With the change of Winning Probability and Win/Loss ratio, traders are able to re-apply the formula to adjust their position size.
Let’s see an example of this formula.
Let’s assume our Win/Loss Ration (R) is the Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss from the TradingView backtesting statistics. Let’s say the Win/Loss ratio is 0.965.
Also, let’s assume that the Winning Probability Factor is the Percent Profitable statistics from TradingView’s backtesting window. Let’s assume that it is 70%.
With this data, our Kelly % would be:
Kelly % = 0.7 - (1 - 0.7) / 0.965 = 0.38912 = 38.9%
Therefore, based on this fictional example, the trader should allocate around 38.9% of their equity and not more, in order to have an optimal position size according to the Kelly Criterion.
The Kelly formula, in essence, aims to answer the question of “What percent of my equity should I use in a trade, so that it will be optimal”. While any method it is not perfect, it is widely used in the industry as a way to more accurately size positions that use percent of equity for entries.
Caution disclaimer
Although adherents of the Kelly Criterion may choose to apply the formula in its conventional manner, it is essential to acknowledge the potential downsides associated with allocating an excessively substantial portion of one's portfolio into a solitary asset. In the pursuit of diversification, investors would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investments that surpass 20% of their overall equity, even if the Kelly Criterion advocates a more substantial allocation.
Source about information on Kelly Criterion
www.investopedia.com
Usd still bullish, not much sign to turn yetShould be cautiously taking long on USD , but also mindful of the extended rally it has so far since mid july 2023
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Educational : Diversification, systematic vs unsystematic riskWhen it comes to investing and trading, risk is a constant factor that requires careful consideration. Let's explore the concepts of systematic and non-systematic risk:
Deeper Dive
Market risk and non-diversifiable risk are other names for systematic risk. It is the kind of risk that is intrinsic to the entire market or a particular area within it and cannot be completely avoided by diversification. This means that you cannot totally protect yourself from systematic risk, regardless of how diversified your investment portfolio is. There are many ways of mitigating risk in the market but due to the nature of the market there is no way to completely eliminate this risk element. There will also be a certain level of risk that you need to account for.
Unpredictability:
The unpredictability of systemic risk is one of its difficult elements. These risk factors frequently come as a surprise and can appear quickly, making it challenging to plan for their effects. Even seasoned investors can be caught off guard by events like global economic crises or political turmoil because of the intricate network of interconnected factors that affect financial markets. There is also the fact that markets are inherently fractal. You can read more about this in my publication on how the market is fractal. (Will be in related ideas)
Unsystematic Risk on the other hand refers to the risk that is specific to a particular company, industry, or asset and can be mitigated through diversification. Unlike systematic risk, which affects the entire market, unsystematic risk is unique to individual entities and can be reduced or eliminated by spreading investments across different assets. Some of these risk might be in individual companies or assets but do not have a widespread impact on the entire market. Examples include management changes, product recalls, lawsuits, technological innovations, and changes in consumer preferences. These factors can significantly influence the performance of a single company's stock or asset. There is also sector or industry specific risk. If you work for a company that produces technical indicators, changes in regulations affecting the financial industry or a downturn in the technology sector could impact the company's performance. Investing solely in one sector exposes your portfolio to a higher degree of unsystematic risk.
Unsystematic risk can be mitigated using many strategies. Two popular methods listed below.
Asset Allocation or portfolio diversification: Allocating your investments across different asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) can help mitigate the impact of unsystematic risk. Different asset classes may respond differently to market events. Where one asset starts to go down another might start to go up and the fall and rise of these assets might be at different severity allowing you the flexibility to deploy risk management strategies to maximise on the rising asset
Hedging: Using financial derivatives like options and futures contracts can provide a way to hedge against specific systematic risks, such as currency fluctuations or interest rate changes.
Diversification in one of the big factors in reducing your risk. As the diagram shows the more diversify the portfolio becomes the less subject it is to unsystematic risk but you will eventually get to a equalising point where you still have to account for systematic risk.
It is important to note that diversifying your portfolio is not just simply investing in as many assets or industries as possible. This process needs to be a calculated application. If not, what can happen is that you fill your porfolio with random assets and stocks that end up having bad correlation between each other causing you to lose. When you buy on one asset you will lose on another constantly making it hard for you to find and edge/alpha
EU at last support,if can bounce might reverseWe could be seeing usd to turn weak this week...Watching it first.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
SOYB- the soybean ETF moves on buying pressure LONGOn the 4H Chart, SOYB has moved above both tthe near and intermediate term POC lines
of the respective volume profiles. Upward price volatility above the running mean
on the relative volatility indicator. In confluence pric emoved above the mean basis
band of the double Bollinger band. Fundamentally, supply-demand imbalances including
the collapse of the Black Sea shipping deal as bad actor Russia continues to inflict chaos
has a ripple effect throughout agricultural commodity markets. Soybean prices are
not following the chaos and volatility of the general markets like AMEX and NASDAQ but rather
they follow the beat of their own drum like seasonality crop yields shipping costs and
others. This make an alternative to avoid going heavy into topping or sinking general
markets. They allow diversification not unlike adding bonds to a portfolio when trying
to weather the storm. Given the narrow trading range I will play this with some call options
If you would like my idea of an excellent call option trade please leave a comment.
See also my ideas on WEAT and CORN.
se to expire after the harvest and into the planting in in Brazil.
Reverse Psychology... TraderTrading in Reverse Psychology.
1. Base your trading strategy on waiting for patterns or roadmaps to develop before taking action (trades).
2. Maintain a risk-reward ratio of no less than 1:2 for favorable results, aiming for 1:3 or higher whenever possible.
3. Define your trading approach—scalper, day trader, swing trader, or investor—and select specific assets and timeframes. Avoid trading impulsively and diversify your choices.
4. When allocating margins, refrain from concentrating all your resources in a single trade; distribute investments to manage risk effectively.
5. Trading may seem like gambling but it is not. Day traders can secure long-term victories by practicing effective risk management and reverse psychology techniques.
EU contrary to USD move, likely moving up
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If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
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Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
USD Likely taking a turn to the down side
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Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Are You Taking the Right Risks in Trading? Best RISK Per Trade
What portion of your equity should you risk for your trading positions?
In the today's article, I will reveal the types of risks related to your position sizing.
Quick note: your risk per trade will be defined by the distance from your entry point to stop loss in pips and the lot size.
🟢Risking 1-2% of your trading account per trade will be considered a low risk.
With such a risk, one can expect low returns but a high level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is optimal for conservative and newbie traders.
With limited account drawdowns, one will remain psychologically stable during the negative trading periods.
🟡2-5% risk per trade is a medium risk.
With such a risk, one can expect medium returns but a moderate level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is suitable for experienced traders who are able to take losses and psychologically resilient to big drawdowns and losing streaks.
🔴5%+ risk per trade is a high risk.
With such a risk, one can expect high returns but a low level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is appropriate for rare, "5-star" trading opportunities where all stars align and one is extremely confident in the positive outcome.
That winner alone can bring substantial profits, while just 2 losing trades in a row will burn 10% of the entire capital.
🛑15%+ risk per trade is considered to be a stupid risk.
With such a risk, one can blow the entire trading account with 4-5 trades losing streak.
Taking into consideration the fact that 100% trading setups does not exist, such a risk is too high to be taken.
The problem is that most of the traders does not measure the % risk per trade and use the fixed lot. Never make such a mistake and plan your risks according to the scale that I shared with you.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Guard Your Funds: Only risk what you can afford to lose.🎉 Risk Management tip for Vesties and @TradingView community! 🚀
😲 We all know the saying "only risk what you can afford to lose," but do you know the powerful impact it can have on your trading journey? 🤔
In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency and futures trading, one fundamental principle stands as the cornerstone of profitable and sustainable trading journeys: Only risk what you can afford to lose. Embracing this essential concept is crucial for preserving capital, maintaining emotional stability, and cultivating a disciplined approach to risk management. In this article, we will delve into the significance of operating money and risk within the confines of one's financial capacity and explore the key pillars that underpin this approach.
Understanding Risk Tolerance and Capital Allocation:
1. Assessing Individual Risk Tolerance:
To truly understand one's risk tolerance and establish a robust risk management strategy, traders are encouraged to engage in a thought exercise that involves imagining potential losses in tangible terms. Visualize throwing money into the bin or burning it completely, purely to experience the feeling of losing money. This exercise may seem unconventional, but it serves a crucial purpose: it helps traders gauge their emotional response to monetary losses.
During this exercise, consider the two extreme scenarios: the first being the largest amount of money you can lose without causing significant distress, and the second being the maximum amount of loss that would completely devastate you financially and emotionally. These two amounts represent your Fine Risk and Critical Risk , which reflects the sum you are willing and able to lose over a specific period of time without compromising your financial well-being.
👉 The next step involves breaking down the Fine Risk into smaller, manageable parts. 🔑 Divide the Fine Risk into 10 or even 20 equal parts, each representing the risk amount for every individual trade. This approach is designed to create a safety net for traders, especially when they encounter unfavorable market conditions.
For instance, imagine a scenario where you face five consecutive losing trades. With each trade representing only a fraction of your Fine Risk, the cumulative loss remains relatively small compared to your risk capability, providing emotional resilience and the ability to continue trading with confidence.
By splitting the Fine Risk into smaller portions, we can safeguard their capital and ensure that a string of losses does not result in irreversible damage to our trading accounts or emotional well-being. Additionally, this approach promotes a disciplined and structured trading mindset, encouraging us to adhere to their predefined risk management rules and avoid impulsive decisions based on emotions.
Remember, risk management is not solely about avoiding losses but also about preserving the means to participate in the market over the long term.
2. Establishing a Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
The risk-to-reward ratio is a critical metric that every trader must comprehend to develop a successful trading system. It is a representation of the potential risk taken in a trade relative to the potential reward. For a well-balanced and sustainable approach to trading, it is essential to ensure that the risk-to-reward ratio is greater than 1:1.10.
A risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.10 implies that for every unit of risk taken, the trader expects a potential reward of 1.10 units. This ratio serves as a safety measure, ensuring that over time, the profits generated from winning trades will outweigh the losses incurred from losing trades. While there is a popular notion that the risk-to-reward ratio should ideally be 1:3, what truly matters is that the ratio remains above the 1:1.10 mark.
Maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.10 is beneficial for several reasons. Firstly, it allows traders to cover their losses in the long term. Even with a series of losing trades, the accumulated profits from winning trades will offset the losses, allowing traders to continue trading without significant setbacks.
Secondly, a risk-to-reward ratio higher than 1:1.10, combined with proper risk management and a well-executed trading system, enables traders to accumulate profits over time. Consistently achieving a slightly better reward than the risk taken can lead to substantial gains in the long run.
3. Determining Appropriate Position Sizes:
Once you have a clear understanding of your risk amount and risk-to-reward ratio, you can proceed to calculate appropriate position sizes for each trade. To do this, you can use a simple formula:
Position Size = (Risk Amount per Trade / Stop Loss) * 100%
Let's take an example to illustrate this calculation:
Example:
Risk Amount per Trade: $100
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
Stop Loss: -4.12%
Take Profit: +8.26%
Using the formula:
Position Size = ($100 / -4.12%) * 100%
Position Size ≈ $2427.18
In this example, your calculated position size is approximately $2427.18. This means that for this particular trade, you would allocate a position size of approximately $2427.18 to ensure that your risk exposure remains at $100.
After executing the trade, let's say the trade turned out to be profitable, and you achieved a profit of $200. This outcome is a result of adhering to a well-calculated position size that aligns with your risk management strategy.
By determining appropriate position sizes based on your risk tolerance and risk-to-reward ratio, you can effectively control your exposure to the market. This approach helps you maintain consistency in risk management and enhances your ability to manage potential losses while allowing your profits to compound over time.
Emotions and Psychology in Risk Management:
A. The Impact of Emotions on Trading Decisions:
Emotions can significantly influence trading decisions, often leading to suboptimal outcomes. Traders must recognize the impact of emotions such as fear, greed, and excitement on their decision-making processes. Emotional biases can cloud judgment and result in impulsive actions, which can be detrimental to overall trading performance.
B. Recognizing and Managing Fear and Greed:
Fear and greed are two dominant emotions that can disrupt a trader's ability to make rational choices. By developing self-awareness and recognizing emotional triggers, traders can gain better control over their reactions. Implementing techniques to manage fear and greed, such as setting predefined entry and exit points, can help traders navigate turbulent market conditions.
C. Developing a Disciplined Trading Mindset:
A disciplined trading mindset is the bedrock of successful risk management. This involves adhering to a well-defined trading plan that outlines risk management rules and strategies. By staying committed to the plan and maintaining a long-term perspective, traders can resist impulsive actions and maintain discipline during times of market volatility.
D. Techniques for Avoiding Impulsive and Emotional Trading:
To avoid impulsive and emotional trading, traders can employ various techniques. Implementing cooling-off periods before making trade decisions allows traders to gain clarity before acting. Seeking support from trading communities or mentors provides valuable insights and helps traders stay grounded. Utilizing automated trading systems can reduce emotional interference and ensure trades are executed based on predefined criteria.
In the world of cryptocurrency and futures trading, the fundamental principle of "only risk what you can afford to lose" remains the cornerstone of successful trading. Embracing this concept is essential for preserving capital, maintaining emotional stability, and cultivating a disciplined approach to risk management.
Understanding individual risk tolerance and breaking down total risk into smaller portions allows traders to navigate unfavorable market conditions with resilience. Maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio above 1:1.10 ensures that profits outweigh losses over time, while determining appropriate position sizes enables effective risk control.
Emotions play a significant role in trading decisions, and managing fear and greed empowers traders to make rational choices. Employing techniques to avoid impulsive trading, like cooling-off periods and seeking support, reinforces a disciplined trading mindset.
In conclusion, adhering to the principle of only risking what you can afford to lose leads to sustainable success in the dynamic trading world. By implementing effective risk management practices, traders enhance their chances of achieving profitability and longevity in their trading journeys.
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📊The Ten Commandments of Forex Trading: A Beginner's Guide📊
1️⃣ Thou shalt have a trading plan:
Having a trading plan is crucial to my success in forex trading. By setting clear entry and exit points, as well as defining my risk tolerance, I am able to trade with discipline and avoid impulsive decisions.
2️⃣Thou shalt not risk more than you can afford to lose:
I understand the importance of capital preservation. I never risk more than 2% of my trading account on a single trade. This ensures that I can withstand potential losses without jeopardizing my overall financial stability.
3️⃣Thou shalt analyze before executing a trade:
Before entering any trade, I conduct thorough technical and fundamental analysis. By examining price charts, economic indicators, and market sentiment, I can make informed decisions based on sound analysis rather than relying on instincts.
4️⃣Thou shalt not overtrade:
I resist the temptation to overtrade and remain patient for favorable opportunities. I understand that trading excessively can lead to emotional decision-making and ultimately result in losses.
5️⃣Thou shalt not chase losses:
When a trade goes against me, I avoid the temptation to chase losses. I accept the loss, learn from it, and move on. Chasing losses would only lead to irrational decisions and potentially larger losses.
6️⃣Thou shalt not rely solely on indicators:
While technical indicators are helpful, I do not rely on them alone. I consider various factors such as geopolitical events, news releases, and market sentiment to get a holistic understanding of market dynamics.
7️⃣Thou shalt use appropriate leverage:
I use leverage responsibly, understanding its potential benefits and risks. I never exceed a leverage ratio that could expose my account to excessive risk. I am aware of the importance of managing leverage effectively.
8️⃣Thou shalt continuously educate thyself:
I understand the importance of ongoing education in forex trading. I regularly read books, attend webinars, and consult reliable sources to stay updated on new strategies, market trends, and economic factors.
9️⃣Thou shalt keep a trading journal:
I diligently maintain a trading journal to track my trades, strategies, and emotions. By reviewing past trades, I gain insights into my strengths and weaknesses, enabling me to refine my approach.
🔟Thou shalt not let emotions drive trading decisions:
I maintain emotional discipline when trading forex. Fear and greed can cloud judgment and lead to poor decisions. By staying rational and following my trading plan, I avoid emotional biases.
⏩Remember, forex trading requires patience, discipline, and a commitment to ongoing learning. By following these ten commandments, you can lay a strong foundation for a successful forex trading journey.
😸Thank you for reading buddy, hope you learned something new today😸
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
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***************************************************************************************
Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
7 Expert Risk Management Techniques for TradingRisk management refers to the techniques used to identify, evaluate, and mitigate the potential risks associated with trading and investing. Whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or scalper, effective risk management can help you minimize losses and protect your hard earned money all while maximizing potential profits.
Let's take a look at the top 7 risk management techniques for trading! 👌
Have a Trading Plan
Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful. You should have a detailed trading plan in place before making any trades. A well-designed trading plan is an essential tool for effective risk management.
A trading plan acts as a roadmap, laying out a set of guidelines/rules that can help traders avoid impulsive decisions. It is crucial because it requires you to think deeply about your approach before you begin risking real money. Having a plan can help you stay calm under stress as your plan will have specific steps to take for anything the market throws at you.
It is essential to clearly define your trading goals and objectives. Are you aiming for short-term gains or long-term wealth generation? Are you focused on a specific asset class or trading strategy? Setting specific and measurable goals helps you stay focused and evaluate your progress.
Another important part is to describe the trading strategy you will employ to enter and exit trades. This includes the types of analysis you will employ (technical, fundamental, or a combination), indicators or patterns you will rely on, and any specific rules for trade execution. Determine your risk tolerance, set appropriate position sizing rules, and establish stop-loss levels to limit potential losses.
The Risk/reward ratio
When you are planning to open a trade, you should analyze beforehand how much money you are risking in that particular trade and what the expected positive outcome is. Here is a useful chart with some examples to understand this concept:
As you can see from the data above, a trader with a higher RR (risk-reward ratio) and a low win rate can still be profitable.
Let’s examine this a little more by looking at a profitable example with a 20% success rate, a RR ratio of 1:5, and capital of $500. In this example, you would have 1 winning trade with a profit of $500. The losses on the other 4 trades would be a total of $400. So the profit would be $100.
An unprofitable RR ratio would be to risk, for example, $500 with a success rate of 20% and a risk/reward ratio of 1:1. That is, only 1 out of 5 trades would be successful. So you would make $100 in 1 winning trade but in the other 4 you would have lost a total of -$400.
As a trader, you need to find the perfect balance between how much money you’re willing to risk, the profits you’ll attempt to make, and the losses you’ll accept. This is not an easy task, but it is the foundation of risk management and the Long & Short Position Tools are essential.
You can use our 'Long Position' and 'Short Position' drawing tools in the Forecasting and measurement tools to determine this ratio.
Stop Loss/Take Profit orders
Stop Loss and Take Profit work differently depending on whether you are a day trader, swing trader or long term trader and the type of asset. The most important thing is not to deviate from your strategy as long as you have a good trading strategy. For example, one of the biggest mistakes here is to change your stop loss thinking that the losses will recover... and often they never do. The same thing happens with take profits, you may see that the asset is "going to the moon" and you decide to modify your take profit, but the thing about markets is that there are moments of overvaluation and then the price moves sharply against the last trend.
There is an alternative strategy to this, which is to use exit partials, that is closing half of your position in order to reduce the risk of your losses, or to take some profits during an outstanding run. Also remember that each asset has a different volatility, so while a stop loss of -3% is normal for a swing trading move in one asset, in other more volatile assets the stop loss would be -10%. You do not want to get caught in the middle of a regular price movement.
Finally, you can use a trailing stop, which essentially secures some profits while still having the potential to capture better performance.
Trade with TP, SL and Trailing Stop
Selection of Assets and Time intervals
Choosing the right assets involves careful consideration of various factors such as accessibility, liquidity, volatility, correlation, and your preference in terms of time zones and expertise. Each asset possesses distinct characteristics and behaviors, and understanding these nuances is vital. It is essential to conduct thorough research and analysis to identify assets that align with your trading strategy and risk appetite.
Equally important is selecting the appropriate time intervals for your trading. Time intervals refer to the duration of your trades, which can span from short-term intraday trades to long-term investments. Each time interval has its own advantages and disadvantages, depending on your trading style and objectives.
Shorter time intervals, such as minutes or hours, are often associated with more frequent trades and higher volatility. Traders who prefer these intervals are typically looking to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations and execute quick trades. Conversely, longer time intervals, such as days, weeks, or months, prove more suitable for investors and swing traders aiming to capture broader market trends and significant price movements.
Take into account factors such as your time availability for trading, risk tolerance, and preferred analysis methods. Technical traders often utilize shorter time intervals, focusing on charts, indicators, and patterns, while fundamental investors may opt for longer intervals to account for macroeconomic trends and company fundamentals.
For example, If you are a swing trader with a low knack for volatility, then you can trade in assets such as stocks or Gold and ditch highly volatile assets such as crypto.
Remember that there is no one-size-fits-all approach, and your choices should align with your trading style, goals, and risk management strategy.
Here is a chart of Tesla from the perspective of a day trader, a swing trader, and an investor:
Backtesting
Backtesting plays a crucial role in risk management by enabling traders to assess the effectiveness of their trading strategies using historical market data. It involves the application of predefined rules and indicators to past price data, allowing traders to simulate how their trading strategies would have performed in the past.
During the backtesting process, traders analyze various performance metrics of their strategies, such as profitability, risk-adjusted returns, drawdowns, and win rates. This analysis helps identify the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies, allowing traders to refine them and make necessary adjustments based on the insights gained from the backtesting results.
The primary objective of backtesting is to evaluate the profitability and feasibility of a trading strategy before implementing it in live market conditions. By utilizing historical data, traders can gain valuable insights into the potential risks and rewards associated with their strategies, enabling them to manage their risk accordingly.
However, it's important to note the limitations of backtesting. While historical data provides valuable information, it cannot guarantee future performance, as market conditions are subject to change. Market dynamics, liquidity, and unforeseen events can significantly impact the actual performance of a strategy.
There are plenty of ways to backtest a strategy. You can run a manual test using Bar Replay to trade historical market events or Paper Trading to trade real examples. Those with coding skills can create a strategy using Pine Script and run automated tests on TradingView.
Here is an example of the Moving Averages Crossover strategy using Pine Script:
Margin allocation
We are not fortune tellers, so we cannot predict how assets will be affected by sudden major events. If the worst happens to us and we have all of our capital in a particular trade, the game is over. There are classic rules such as the maximum allocation percentage of 1% per trade (e.g. in a $20,000 portfolio this means that it cannot be risked +$200 per trade). This can vary depending on your trading strategy, but it will definitely help you manage the risk in your portfolio.
Diversification and hedging
It is very important not to put all your eggs in one basket. Something you learn over the years in the financial markets is that the unexpected can always happen. Yes, you can make +1000% in one particular trade, but then you can lose everything in the next trade. One way to avoid the cold sweats of panic is to diversify and hedge. Some stock traders buy commodities that are negatively correlated with stocks, others have a portfolio of +30 stocks from different sectors with bonds and hedge their stocks during downtrends, others buy an ETF of the S&P 500 and the top 10 market cap cryptos... There are unlimited possible combinations when diversifying your portfolio. At the end of the day, the most important thing to understand is that you need to protect your capital and using the assets available to you a trader can hedge and/or diversify to avoid letting one trade ruin an entire portfolio.
Thank you for reading this idea on risk management! We hope it helps new traders plan and prepare for the long run. If you're an expert trader, we hope this was a reminder about the basics. Join the conversation and leave your comments below with your favorite risk management technique! 🙌
- TradingView Team
I want to share with you some points about Risk ManagementThis topic is so important, that´s why I wanted to share it with you and hope I can reach as much people as possible. Hope it will help some :)
I saw in the last years many who crashed their accounts very hard, they lost a lot of money and for some it was very dreadful!
It is hard to watch this people how they burn money and bring even his own family in financial danger. That´s why risk management in trading is so heavily important, to keep yourself and your life in balance.
May be some will find very helpful, or some will remember this rules again :)
I will keep it a bit shorter here as in my book, but the main points are still mentioned!
I can´t say it often enough, always keep your rules during trading. Trading is not the way to get rich quick, it is a serious and hard business! It take a lot of time to learn, it requires a lot of patience and it will happen a lot of failures.
This failures are even more important than your success! Success will not open up how it will not work, failures will.
But let´s talk about risk management!
For each investment you have to consider you take for each trade the risk to lose money, that´s why it is mandatory to handle each investment with a good risk/reward distribution.
You have to keep in mind, the determined risk/reward is only theoretically and can result complete different. But with knowledge you can dedicate a good entry for your trades to keep your risk as low as possible.
Determine important support and resistance levels and think about all situations what could happen and what will you do, if you are going into the red or into the green? Which levels are the best entries and exits?
This all will help you to determine your riks/reward ratio.
What is the Risk/Reward Ratio?
Successful day traders are generally aware of both, the potential risk and potential reward before entering a trade.
The goal of a day trader is to place trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk.
These trades would be considered to have a good risk/reward ratio.
A risk/reward ratio is simply the amount of money you plan to risk, compared to the amount of money you believe you can gain.
For example, if you think a potential trade may result in either a $400 profit or $100 loss, the trade would have a risk/reward ratio of 1:4, making it a favorable setup. Contrarily, if you risk $100 to make $100, the trade has a risk/reward ratio of 1:1, giving you the same type of unfavorable odds that you can find in a casino.
Which ratio should you desire?
Like described above, finding trades with high risk/reward ratios (1:2 or higher), will help you maintain higher average profits and lower average losses, making your trading strategy more sustainable.
The common suggestion between traders is a distribution of minimum 1:2 ratio. In reality there are often even better ratios available, if you do your technical chart analysis or financial stock analysis.
But what should you do if you have to cut losses?
We have to place our stop loss right below our support or other important levels we determined before.
The purpose is to cut losses before they grow too large. Stopping out of a losing trade can be one of the hardest things for traders to do consistently. However, failing to take stops can result in margin calls, unnecessarily large losses, and ultimately account blowouts.
How big should I enter a position?
To lower your risk I recommend to think about your size to enter a position.
Overall you shouldn´t risk money you need, only deposit money in your broker you can afford.
Entering small can be the smartest way to safe your account. I suggest that because of four reasons:
1. You don´t risk to much of your funds and your stop loss should be tight anyway.
2. You can average down if the price is going in the other direction, but consider this option only if you are sure what you are doing.
3. You can buy the dips/pullbacks if the trend is strong and still heading in your desired direction.
4. Your emotional control is stronger if the price movement is heading in the wrong direction.
This brings us to the next topic.
Should you use leverage?
Yes I know, big leverage will give you big gains...but as a beginner you will not have the experience to know which trade has a very big potential or not.
Even experienced traders use only a small amount to enter a position and not the whole fund.
If you use leverage the losses can be much higher and the problem with that is, if you lose money, your leverage will also decrease significantly and the losses are harder to recover after each loss.
So what is the answer of the question, should you use leverage?
For beginners we can easily answer: Take your hands of a big leverage!
You can so hardly blow up yourself with that tool, it is ridiculous. Your way back into the profit zone will probably take years.
But you have to save yourself and after a period of time, a period of taking profits and cutting losses you will gain knowledge until you feel much more comfortable on the market and you understand how trading really works, then you can consider to use leverage.
Conclusion:
As I said, I want to share only some big points about this topic, simple and understandable, because I think many new investors don´t understand how important that topic is!
Safe yourself and have fun in trading and learning!
Sincerely,
TradeandGrow
Trade safe!
3 Types of Stop LossesToday’s topic is going to be on three types of stop losses . This is a very critical topic because stop losses come under the category of risk management.
Risk management is such a pivotal, important and critical topic. Why? Because professional traders and investors, the first thing that they always do and constantly think about before they get into a trade or investment is not how much profit they’re going to make, it’s how much they can afford to lose.
The only control that you have when you enter into a trade and you’re in the trade is the risk factor because most of us will not have the capital power to control that trade. It’s a collective pool of people’s thoughts and a lot of other factors that come in which then determines how the price moves in the market, especially how smart money enters the market actually. So in light of all of that, the real power that you have, the real control that you have is your risk management. How much you can afford to lose. In terms of that, we’re going to be looking at the three types of stop losses and how to stop your loss when the market does something which is not favourable to you and not in line with the direction of the trade that you are taking on.
The first type is what we call the technical stop . This is the one most people will be familiar with. That’s where all your different kinds of stop losses come under: moving averages, channels, trend lines and so forth. All these are summarised under technical stop losses. Even if you use tier based stop losses, they come under technical stop losses.
The second one is called a money stop . A money stop is basically one where you write in your rules, and this is how you execute a trade as well is that you say, for example, you enter a trade and it is going well in profit. You tell yourself to trail your stop loss to break even as soon as the trade is 3% in profit. You don’t care what the moving averages are or where the price pattern is whatsoever, you would just move your stop loss to break even. So that is purely based on money. That is called a money stop because the stop loss is adjusted according to your profits or your losses. Usually it’s to your profits – that’s when you trail and adjust your stop loss.
The final one is the time stop . As you’ve already guessed, the time stop is based on time. Especially for intra-day trading it’s very important because you know certain times of the day volume is really high and other times of the day volume starts to dry up. So especially if you want to capture a certain percentage of move, you want to capture it before a certain time and you usually know that after 5pm or 6pm the volume usually dries up. Price movement is not really that much especially towards 9pm. So you can have a rule saying, for example, at 5pm or 6pm you’ll look at exiting a trade if it’s not reached an objective. If you’re a swing trader you start saying things like you know if it’s consolidating for 10-15 days in a row I will possibly exit out of the trade. So all that is basically based on time.
Let me ask you a question. Out of all the three stops I’ve talked about: technical, money and time, what do you think is the strongest stop of them all? I think, if my guess is right as we have coached thousands of traders, most of them usually tell me it’s either the technical or the money stop. In fact, let me tell you Traders, the weakest one of them all is the money stop because there’s no basis for it. It’s just based on money and just trailing it. The strongest is the time stop because everything is determined on time and you’re time bound in everything that you do. If you look at daily activities: waking up, going to work, having meals, going to bed – your life is time bound.
Here’s the final most critical point. If you actually want to make your risk management really strong, the trick is not to put emphasis on either one of them according to strength, but to make them sync with each other so that they can then adapt to market conditions. It’s basically a confluence of the types of stop losses that can help you to generate the rules which can adapt to market conditions. For example, when you start out if you put in your initial stop loss in a technical place and as time then moves by then you would then get more aggressive with your stop loss and as it’s nearing towards exit, if you’ve reached a certain profit potential as the market price is still hovering around, losing momentum, then you would then start to go into money stop. Money stop is especially useful if you’re in swing trading. For example, when we took the DOW Jones trade and we took that 2,000 point move on a mismatched strategy when it had already done 80% of the move we used a money stop because we don’t want to give back all that profit back to the market. So that’s when we start to us a money stop and a combination of time stop, initially starting with a technical. So that’s how you do it.
Do have a good think about this because this is so critical Traders. If there’s only one thing you have total control of, it’s your stop loss, it’s your risk management. So contemplate this, revisit your strategy rules and see how you can optimise that for maximum performance of your strategy.
I believe that you have really enjoyed this topic and have some amazing value from this. Until the next time, as we always say, stay disciplined, follow your trading plan and keep trading like a master .