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Riskanalysis

ETHBTC: The Back Bone of Risk Appetite AnalysisIntroduction: Understanding the nuances of the cryptocurrency market is challenging, especially with its inherent volatility. However, seasoned investors often rely on specific charts to gauge the market's overall sentiment. One such crucial chart is the ETHBTC chart, which is a ratio of Ethereum's price to Bitcoin's price. This article delves into how this chart can be an essential tool for discerning risk appetite in the crypto market and identifying potential altcoin outperformance compared to Bitcoin. 1. A Brief Overview of ETHBTC: The ETHBTC chart represents the value of one Ethereum (ETH) in terms of Bitcoin (BTC). When the ratio rises, it suggests that Ethereum is gaining strength relative to Bitcoin, and when it falls, Ethereum is weakening relative to Bitcoin. Solana will be used as a representative for altcoins for live examples. 2. Gauging Risk Appetite: Bullish Sentiment for Altcoins: A rising ETHBTC ratio can be an indication that the broader altcoin market is bullish. Ethereum, being the second-largest cryptocurrency, often leads altcoin rallies. When investors are optimistic about the general altcoin space, Ethereum typically sees significant gains against Bitcoin. Bearish Sentiment for Altcoins: Conversely, a falling ETHBTC ratio may indicate a more risk-averse sentiment, where investors prefer the perceived 'safe-haven' of Bitcoin over altcoins, including Ethereum. 3. Identifying Potential Outperformance of Altcoins: Early Indicators: A rising ETHBTC ratio can serve as an early signal that altcoins might start to outperform Bitcoin. When Ethereum, a bellwether for altcoins, gains strength against Bitcoin, it can foreshadow a broader altcoin rally. (depicted earlier) Reversal Points: Sharp reversals or significant inflection points in the ETHBTC chart can indicate changing market dynamics. These can be pivotal moments where market sentiment shifts, providing opportunities for astute investors. 4. Correlation with Broader Market Indicators: To get a comprehensive view, investors can also correlate the ETHBTC chart with other market metrics like total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin or volume dominance of major altcoins. Such analyses provide a more holistic understanding of where the market is heading. 5. Caveats and Considerations: While the ETHBTC chart offers valuable insights, relying solely on it can be myopic. It's vital to: Combine with Other Tools: Integrate the insights from the ETHBTC chart with other technical indicators and fundamental analyses to ensure a well-rounded investment decision. Stay Updated: The cryptocurrency market is notoriously dynamic, with rapid changes. Regularly updating oneself on global news, technological advancements, and regulatory changes is paramount. Conclusion: The ETHBTC chart is a potent tool in an investor's arsenal, offering insights into market sentiment and potential altcoin performance. However, as with all investment strategies, it's crucial to employ a multi-faceted approach, integrating various tools and staying updated to navigate the tumultuous crypto waters successfully.
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
The 3 Musketeers of Risk AnalysisIntroduction: In the world of investing, managing risk is as crucial as seeking returns. Three vital tools for assessing risk-adjusted returns are the Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Omega Ratio. In this post, we'll explore these ratios, their calculation, their unique features, and when to use them. 1. Sharpe Ratio: Balancing Risk and Return Measures risk-adjusted returns using total volatility (both up and down). Formula: (Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Portfolio Standard Deviation. Strength: Widely accepted and provides a simple assessment of risk-adjusted return. Weakness: Assumes normal distribution and ignores skewness. 2. Sortino Ratio: Focusing on Downside Risk Emphasizes downside risk. Formula: (Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Downside Deviation (only negative returns). Strength: Ideal for risk-averse investors and non-normally distributed returns. Weakness: Ignores upside volatility. 3. Omega Ratio: Probability of Positive Returns Evaluates risk-adjusted returns based on the probability of achieving positive returns. Formula: Probability of Positive Returns / Probability of Negative Returns. Strength: Provides insights into return probabilities and considers tail events. Weakness: Less recognized and may require more data. Conclusion: Understanding these ratios helps investors make informed decisions. The Sharpe Ratio simplifies risk-return assessment, the Sortino Ratio prioritizes downside protection, and the Omega Ratio analyzes return probabilities. Combining these ratios offers a comprehensive view of investment performance in an unpredictable financial world.
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NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
3
Did you miss NVDA's move? What now?NVDA's gap up on a stellar earnings report should NOT have been a surprise, as the chart has been showing strength since January when I mentioned it in my Morning Reports. It was completing the bottom at that time. The trend upward was showing pro traders in control of price after Dark Pool quiet accumulation. It has 64% of the shares held by institutions, which is normal for a giant-cap stock. It should actually be a Dow 30 component rather than INTC but, alas, that won't happen for a while. NVDA stair-stepped upward. This is probably one of the hardest trendline patterns to see without rectangles drawn around the step, but one of the most important to recognize professional buyer dominance. What now? The gains are now extreme. And the pros are taking profits. That means there is very high risk for buying at this moment. CAN it move higher? Of course! Euphoric retail buying can easily drive prices upward further for a short period of time. Just remember that without institutional buying at this level, any upside from here may be short-lived.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
RISKOMETER Based on Your Trading Style ⚠️ Hey traders, In this educational post, we will discuss the relation of risk to your trading style. 1️⃣ High Frequency Trading (HFT) It is a complex algorithmic approach that is used to operate on second(s) time frames. Such a style is considered to be the riskiest one. With a very high frequency of order execution and sophisticated strategies, it requires a very high level of experience and proper software and hardware for successful operations. 2️⃣ Scalping It is a manual trading style with operations on minutes time frames. With the average holding period ranging from minutes to hours, scalping requires a high degree of attention and constant charts monitoring. Being one of the most profitable trading styles for retail traders, scalping involves an extremely high risk and mental load. 3️⃣ Day trading The form of speculation in which the traders attempt to make profits within a single trading day. Occasionally, however, day traders may hold their positions overnight. Day trading is considered to be slower than scalping, with the trade execution on hourly time frames. Slower pace drastically reduces risks also limiting the potential gains. 4️⃣ Swing trading It is a style of trading that is aimed to make profits on swing moves, with an average holding period ranging from days to weeks. 4H time frame is the lowest time frame where swing traders usually operate, and a daily time frame is usually the highest one. The operations on higher time frame dramatically reduces the noise and degree of manipulations, making that style of trading relatively safe. 5️⃣Investing (Position Trading) Trading / investing style aiming to make long-term profits. The average holding time of a position trader may expand to years. In comparison to other trading styles, investing generally produces the smallest gain. That is, however, compensated by extremely low risks. Correct understanding of relations between trading styles and potential risks is crucially important for a selection of an appropriate style for you. Shorter is the holding period and operational time frames, higher is the risk, but higher are the potential gains. You should pick the style that fits your risk-tolerance and expectation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
11
MSTR: Bottoming action to prepare swing tradesMSTR would benefit from a stock split. It is pricey for today's market conditions. It is showing improvement in its trend. The resistance above the high range is short-term and moderate. This would more likely be a swing style trade based on the runs and trend. There was a Dark Pool buy zone over the formation of the bottom. This can be a precursor for upside momentum. Because of the current price range, it has room to run with momentum, however Risk Analysis is a factor.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
Dark Pool Buy Zones and Sell Short Risk: LCIDDark Pool buy zones tend to provide strong support for stocks running down. If a stock violates the lows of such support, the rebound tends to come quickly, erasing any sell short profits. This young EV auto manufacturing company is near its IPO price range, which is strong support. The retest of the lows of this bottoming action doesn't show much downside potential for a strong sell short. There is risk that LCID may gap or run down but then reverse quickly and move back up. Whipsaw reversal candles near Dark Pool buy zones can cause big losses for short sellers at this level.
NASDAQ:LCID
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Position & Swing Trading: Weekly ChartsIf you're position or swing trading, it is a MUST to study weekly charts to confirm: 1. IF a bottom is developing 2. WHERE the bottom will complete ...to plan trades with strong reward/risk ratios. For example, let's take a look at EGLX, which had a gap up at open on its earnings release: 1. Note that today's gap up is from a lower low in the downtrend. This particular bottom is not confirmed just yet. When it makes a higher low is when there will be lower risk for an entry. 2. The first resistance is at 3.27, but there's stronger resistance at 4.44--once the stock's price sustains that level, then the bottom will be complete, which is the best time to consider position trade entries. Both resistance levels should be considered for swing trading potential... First ask: "Are there enough points to gain from your entry point to warrant the risk of the trade?" If no, then move on to the next opportunity; maybe put an alert at the next resistance level to revisit. If yes, then which resistance levels are likely to cause profit-taking? A step-by-step checklist that looks further than the entry is important for not giving back profits just as soon as you make them. Learn more at my website.
EEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Technical Analysis for Risk AnalysisTechnical Analysis should be used for Risk Analysis, not just for deciding if and when to buy whatever it is you want to trade, whether it's stocks, crypto, forex, indexes, ETFs, REITs, mutual funds, etc. When you know the technical patterns that point to higher risk, aka sellers gaining traction, you can get out of long positions before the retail crowd and its small fund managers react late to earnings reports. It is NEVER the largest institutions, who we call the Dark Pools, who are selling on earnings announcements. It is ALWAYS the less informed who buy or sell on big news days. This is what we at TechniTrader call "Relational Technical Analysis"--the application of what we know about the market participant groups to discern who is doing what in the technical patterns of a chart. For example: UPST was a struggling IPO anyway. The typical IPO top and drop occurred in October-November. 99% of new IPOs do this. Learn to sell at the peak of a speculative new IPO. That means you must learn what speculation looks like in the charts and how to recognize the top developing so you can get out before the drop. But today's lesson is about the specific set of negative technical patterns developing ahead of Upstart's earnings report yesterday after the market close: 1. A trading range was developing lower highs and lower lows. 2. Compression of price at the low end of the range. 3. Declining Accumulation/Distribution over the sideways action of the trading range. These are what we at TechniTrader call the "footprints" of controlled rotation out of the stock ahead of the earnings press release date. Please like and follow if you learned something new. Learn more at my website.
NASDAQ:UPSTEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
COST: High Risk for Long Term BuyConsidering your risk is something that all investors and traders should do before trading or investing in any stock. Often when a stock displays this much risk on the long- and intermediate-term time frames, it also warns of risk for short-term trading as well. The Weekly Chart provides better perspective of the risk of buying the stock at this new all-time high price. There is no support nearby. See how many points are at risk if a correction occurs? Trade Wisely, Martha Stokes, CMT
NASDAQ:COST
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader