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Riskappetite

Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction: A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety. For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics. Analysis: Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds. Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years. Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY). Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels) Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
Risk appetite in the markets? Checking the $XLY / $XLP quotientI have this quotient in my watchlist to monitor the risk appetite of the market. The AMEX:XLY ETF (Consumer Discretionary) is a good indicator of high risk appetite because its holdings are more focus on growth therefore are more volatile. And the AMEX:XLP ETF (Consumer Staples) is more focus in value stocks, therefore less volatile. AMEX:XLY with holdings like NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:TSLA and NYSE:MCD . And AMEX:XLP with holdings like NYSE:KO , NASDAQ:PEP and NASDAQ:COST . Right now the quotinet XLY/XLP is near a breakout off a base to make an all time high, while its 20 day moving average is croosing the 50 moving average. This are good news to this bull market.
AMEX:XLYLong
by dpuleo19
1
EURUSD Possible Short Term Rebound/Retracement UpwardRemembered this chart from my older idea? No much changes from the technical point of view but things do change around beyond technical and I just want to tell my good folks that I am a guy who go with the follow. Kinda like trend following trader you can take but I don't mean the overall reversal of trend on this major pair but just the personality I got during trading. It will be a foolish word to just say overall trend reversal as things need time to fully confirm the actual fact and it's not right time to say a pure reversal or not but I can say for now bearish have been weakening and we can see a slight retracement around 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at least. If better who knows 50% can also be possible but the price will need to break the weekly pivot point level plus breakout beyond the falling trendline (red). Thanks for reading my idea and I hope you enjoyed and if you think it added some value in your trading don't forget to support me by hitting a thumbs up button! (LIKE)
Long
by Anatta0
4
CADJPY Reversal Chart Pattern For Sure?!Risk appetite appears to have improved somewhat during the Asian session, and the Loonie has been the strongest among the comdoll bunch. This is likely because the commodity currency is having some strength after Canadian data and a pickup in crude oil as well. After all, there are speculations that the OPEC could consider an increase in output cuts or at least an extension of their agreement in order to prop prices up. On the flip side, the LYSH yen is losing ground to risk-on flows while also facing the possibility of a Q4 GDP contraction. With that, I’m looking at this inverted head and shoulders breakout on CAD/JPY, especially since the pair appears to be making a retest of the broken neckline. If you think that this reversal is about to gain friction from here, shorting in at market with a stop that’s enough to weather the pair’s average daily volatility 50.3 pips could be a good play.
by Anatta0
EUR/JPY Price Action Overview And AnticipationAfter breaking below its long period ascending trend line, this pair pulled up for a quick retest and is now ready to gain power on its downtrend. EUR/JPY is now down to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension, and moving averages suggest that further losses are in the works. The 100 SMA crossed below the 200 SMA to confirm that bearish momentum is in play, and the former is also holding as a dynamic resistance. However, stochastic is already indicating oversold conditions, and turning higher could allow buyers to return at some point and may rebound lower again depending on coming up Lagarde's speech, other top tier reports from European or which lower yield gaining the most power out of lower-risk appetite market situation at that point should be taken concern.
by Anatta0
1
AUDJPY Market OverviewIt looks like a successful break-and-retest. AUD/JPY found resistance at the former support level around 74.25 and is resuming its slide to the next downside targets. The 38.2% Fibonacci extension level appears to be holding as support at the moment, but stochastic has room to move lower before reflecting exhaustion among sellers. Bearish pressure could still take the pair down to the next support areas, possibly around the 50% Fib that lines up with the swing low and around s1-s2 of the weekly pivot. Worst case for Aussie bulls should lead the price lower dip extension at 78.60% which line up with the s3. Another speech by RBA Governor Lowe is coming up soon, and negative remarks could hurt the Aussie, especially if risk appetite stays lows.
by Anatta0
EURNZD Possible Trade OpportunityRisk appetite has recovered in recent trading sessions as China seems to be stepping up its game when it comes to keeping the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the economy contained. This was enough to bring EUR/NZD down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on its recent rally, and it appears that buyers are trying to defend this area. Price is currently trading below the weekly pivot point level and a deeper pullback could last until the 50-61.8% Fibs that span an area of interest. A bounce off the 50-61.8% area could take EUR/NZD back to the swing high around 1.71770 (around weekly pivot point R1). With ECB head Lagarde due to give a speech in an hour, I’m hoping to see some volatility for this pair. If the speech favor euro we can actually see a bounce but if it doesn't help the positive sentiment for euro we may see the price dip further without any pullbacks from those key levels of fib.
Long
by Anatta0
USDJPY Possible Trade Opportunities. RetrenchmentOrContinuation? A strong U.S equities market and risk-friendly trading environment have helped push and breakout USD/JPY above a descending trend line on the 1-hour time frame. The pair were consolidated for a while London entered but then somehow the global positive risk sentiment news concern to coronavirus saying "China finding an effective drug to treat people with new coronavirus" pump the pair little higher but I guess there was some more hidden reason for price acting that manner earlier. Before the U.S. ADP report only a few hours away USD/JPY’s may have some possible retracement opportunity if today’s U.S. ADP report prints lower than market already weak expectations. We could see USD/JPY give up some of its gains and revisit 109.063 and this case should be considered to buy the rumors sell the news case. As we can see, the fib 38.2% level lines up with the previous resistance level 109.063 which is a good take profit level for bearish bias traders if the ADP forecast ends up being the actual or even worst. If today’s ADP release prints better than expected, then we could see USD/JPY trade higher without a significant retracement and bullish momentum may not fade away which will lead to some more new fresh buyers in this major pair!
by Anatta0
ORBEX: SPX, DXY: What's Next For Indices?In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #SPX and #DXY. SPX keeps going up, and with structural variances playing in we could see fresh highs reached in no time. Will the US-China situation and a dovish #Fed boost appetite for equities more? The US Index, on the other hand, should be watched cautiously. Will this upside impulsive move turn out to be another correction or the real bullish deal? Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
ORBEX:USDJPY Up on Possible Rollbacks,GBPUSD Down on Dovish BoE!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about the latest geopolitical and economic developments affecting #FXMajor pairs #USDJPY and #GBPUSD. For one, US confirmed that rollbacks on previously imposed tariffs against Ciina are possible, pushing #safehavens down and #dollaryen to a fresh multimonth high! At the #BoE meeting yesterday, #Carney re-cited #Brexit related downside risks but the board decided to hold #interestrates unchanged at 0.75%. However, this time, two policymakers voted for a cut, which suggests that one might be coming sooner than expected. Meanwhile, the 2020 outlook for both #GDP and #inflation numbers were both downgraded. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
BTC & personal saving rate, macro signal for final capitulationFinal capitulation occurred on 12 JAN 2015, during a time in which the personal saving rate made a multi-year high, peaking on 30 JAN 2015. This could help us identify a max point of financial opportunity in overall market conditions and investor psychology. Q4 2018 ended the year with the highest personal saving rate of 2018. Q1 and Q2 readings in 2019 could be instrumental in confirming if a final capitulation has indeed occurred. For added analysis, household debt service payments as a percent of disposable income has been plotted for additional confirmation of consumer strength/risk appetite.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoAlpha0
EUR/JPY DE10Y vs. JP10YIncreased spread between Germany 10-year bond yield vs Japan 10-year yield could indicate a slide in the Euro against the Yen. Even though the yield is higher for European bund, the risk appetite is declining, while the global economy is projected to have a slow growth rate through out 2019. This means that investors seek safe heaven assets like the Yen and JP10 bonds, that’s why we could see lower yield on the JP10Y. While the bond buying program from ECB is slowly decreasing - will increase the DE10Y yield. Maybe we could see a negative JP10Y yield this year, as it happened in 2016 and was the reason behind the slump of the pair from 128 to 111. I see a weak risk appetite, more demand on JP10 or even lower Japanese bonds, and a higher supply of European bonds. If the risk appetite is weak, we will also see a lower S&P and positive correlated indices with the S&P lower. European stocks is a risk in 2019 = less demand for the euro. If the risk sentiment is changing, then we could see a higher EUR/JPY. I am closely monitoring this factor. A range throughout 2019 of the pair is also possible. Holding shorts, and will add more if we break 123,400 and 121,500.
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
USDJPY/ SPX: NET RISK APPETITE - THE REVERSAL OR INTERDAY TREND?- As many of you know ive been tracking/ am keen on this whole macro "net risk sentiment" theme to gauge what direction markets are heading in for the day/ week/ several weeks. - We started today as planned, with both safe havens and risk asset relatively flat, before risk-on sentiment dominated early trading with yen breaking out the 107 level and equity indexes holding their gains/ in the green. - However, at apprx 10am GMT BBC Radio 4 reiterated the 3wk old sentiments from BOJ govenor Kuroda, which downplayed the chance of helicopter money/ took a hawkish tone - which in turn then shifted markets into a mildly strong risk-off rally, with yen falling 150pips straight down and equities failing to hold in the green. Where do we go from here: 1. The easiest thought, with Yen up 1% and gold up 1% is to think "the risk rally/ recovery is materially over, we should start positioning for the material risk-off downtrend that has dominated 2016 and get net short safe havens again" however by steeping away from the fundamental intraday signs for a moment/ looking at the technicals from a macro perspective, there is a promising underlying trend that has developed this past 2wks (since the risk rally began) which MAY mean this is NOT the case. 2. Firstly look at the daily of USDJPY below (my favourite Safe haven indicator of risk sentiment given FX being the fastest asset to process information) and SPX above (my favourite risk-on indicator of risk sentiment due to its nobility) - what do you notice? - For the past 9 trading days (since the risk-recovery started) SPX has traded one day higher, then one day lower EVERYDAY and today seems to be no exception - we are on the lower day. 9-days is particularly enough to be certain but it is definitely something worth thinking about when considering if this is the doom and gloom end of the risk rally or merely an interday correction that the market has been happy with since the rally started. - Correlation at 97% confirms this view - and high correlations are usually markers of a trend (e.g. one up one down) and harder to break so i definitely think this could be an interday trend lower for risk (before resuming higher again tomorrow) - rather than a risk-off reversal. BOJ Kuroda's reiterated comments: 1. Kurodas reiterated comments today from 3wks ago was certainly the driver for the aggressive sell-off however, we have since moved 50-70pips higher than them levels so there is definitely something more macro at play as to why risk is struggling today e.g. the one day trend that has held. Going forward: 1. It will be interesting to see if that pattern continues to hold true e.g. tomorrow is a risk-on day. Though the odds are against it with friday historically being the WORST day for stocks due to end of week book clearing - so before making any moves on Friday it may be even best to wait until Monday to decide if the risk-off sentiment is here to stay before switching your trading sentiment (as i said last weekend) - unless we were to see some aggressive selling off tomorrow e.g. UJ to <104 - this to me would confirm that the risk rally was over and I would turn a net seller of USDJPY and cut my risk holdings - It seems weird that the ECB dovishness was enough to send EUR$ lower (never happens) but not enough to give risk a prop up - so it could well be that the macro trend of 1 up/ 1 down on the daily takes precedent no matter what + the BBC R4 Spat with kurodas comments earlier was just an emphasiser of the already established marco pattern? - Time will tell.
TVC:SPX
by QuantumLogicTrading
2