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Riskmangement

How to know when you are wrong and what to do nextThe feeling of ever admitting that one’s action is wrong is something many people never acknowledges, outside the works of trading, you get to see that even in a bilateral misconduct between two sovereign nations, it’s always difficult or maybe impossible for one of those countries to accept that there were at fault( being wrong), it goes on in every aspect of human endeavors, No one wants to take the blame. Now let’s take a case study into the current invasion of Russia into Ukraine, you will get to see that none of the presidents according to their speech has accepted to be wrong in their actions. Russian president Vladimor Putin while delivering his annual state state of the nation’s speech at the Gosting Duor conference center on February 21, 2023 did in his statement puts the blames on West and Ukraine for provoking conflicts while the president of Ukraine while replying to his speech did debunked the allegations of the Russian President. So the big question now is who is to be blamed? Who is Wrong? It’s the same thing that applies to trading, so many beginners and advanced traders can’t really beat their chest to tell when their analysis becomes invalid so that’s the reason am here to fix things up. What is wrong in forex? I won’t quote any dictionary or trader but I will simply put it this way that wrong in forex is a level or stage where you find PERSONALLY that the trade setup you had plan to trade or that you had traded is no more valid, useful or won’t be profitable if traded. The main keywords there are personally, profitability and traded. As far as wrong is concerned, it has to do with one accepting to the fact that a signal won’t yield profit because it had passed a particular level or structure. How to know that you are wrong I will like to drop some factors that will help you know that a setup is soar or is wrong. You have to set up parameters before entering a trade: wheather you use pending orders or market execution, you shouldn’t rush into a trade because of how attractive or how sweet looking the candles are being printed on the chart without knowing firstly where you will consider being wrong in the market. For me, since we are in a very sensitive environment while trading, then I feel identifying where your wrong zone would be is more important travel where your profit target would be. Use a well backtested strategy that you trust: Using a strategy that you trust would always enable a trader to quickly identify certain trade management levels. Let’s take a case st udy of a driver who uses one route everyday while going to and fro work at night, then unluckily for him, while returning from work at night on a faithful day, his head light malfunctions and then refuses to work, you will notice that with the aid of streetlight, you will be amazed that even under such mysterious circumstance, the driver would still manage to scale through the road successfully back home. Now you will ask how? This is because he has been using this route repeatedly and knows where there could be portholes and bombs so he would avoid those areas. Same thing applies with trading, when you trade a particular strategy day in day out, you will always at the slight of a fingertip be acquainted with where to identify your wrong level(stoploss) and you right level (take profit). Be psychologically ready to accept that you are wrong: This is one of the major problems encountered by traders because most traders even when their levels or an intending structure they acknowledged as their wrong level are taken out (those who believes in closing trades manually), they rather believe that things could get better (trades will surely reverse) so they keep holding their losses till it gets out of control. As a trader, you must be ready to boldly acknowledge that a setup you saw due to some factors is wrong and then immediately close it without second thoughts. Some technical tools and indicators to help you be aware of being wrong Thank God for the recent innovations that has been seen in the world of trading. With this, trading has been made more smart and rewarding because of there sophisticated tools and indicators that have been made available. Here are some of the tools that can help you identify when you are wrong Support and Resistance indicator by Luxalgo As we all know, trading is all about identifying key levels and structures which turns to become support and resistance levels. This indicator by Luxalgo makes it more easy to quickly identify market structures and trends on each timeframe so one could use the indicator to set a particular structure which will be used as his or her wrong level. ATR indicator You(Mindset) indicator This indicator surpasses all other technical indicators and tools because it has to do with the trader itself. Having to make use of those mentioned indicators is all dependent on you. This indicator determines the progress that you make in the industry. After Losing, What Next? There are some traders that would love to acknowledge being wrong in its dealings( setups or analysis) but their biggest question would be “After I agree that am wrong, what next should I do”? According to a book titled “Mastering trading psychology “ written collaboratively by Andrew Aziz( founder and CEO, Peak Capital Trading Founder,Bear Bull Traders) and Mike Baehr( Chief training officer , Peak Capital Trading Couch, Bear Bull Traders), one of their est technical analysis trainee who they had in mind to reserve as their full time trader after encountering a loss( wrong) had this to say and I quote “This is embarrassing. I was doing so well alternating between real and simulator this whole week. These were my results: ƒ Monday: 4 green trades out of 4 ƒ Tuesday: 3 green trades out of 5 trades ƒ Wednesday: 1 green trade out of 1 trade ƒ Thursday: 2 green trades out of 2 trades Total: 10 green trades out of a total of 12 trades: nice profits, and feeling on top of the world! And today it all fell apart in spectacular fashion. I traded like a maniac and finished with a huge loss. It was all a blur, but this is my recollection of the events in question: After two small losses 10 minutes after the open, I was a bit shook. Then on my 3rd trade, I made a hotkey mistake and doubled up my position rather than exiting. That ended in a huge loss. Shortly after that, I made another hotkey mistake and took another big hit. I was a psycho- logical mess. Rather than walking away, I went on a rampage. I started trading stocks not in play (JD, BABA, MU), and was reckless and vengeful. I said to myself, ‘Fuck it, let’s go!’ (literally out loud) and fired away at my hotkeys like there was no tomorrow. By 10:30 AM ET, I was 0 for 7. By noon, I had made 13 trades. When it was all said and done, I had made 20 trades total (not tickets, but trades). Only 2 of them turned out to be winners. Talk about lack of self-control... I violated every single rule that I had been following reli- giously all week. I stopped caring about those A+ setups and traded anything that looked marginally good. And since SPY was a roller coaster today, I got destroyed by questionable entries and ‘make-believe’ strategies. I kept trading the same stocks over and over, even after admit- ting they were not in play. I was trading like it was going out of style. I thought I could outsmart the market and get back at it. It wasn’t even about the money anymore. The losses were a foregone conclusion and had evaporated to currency heaven. The sad part about this whole tirade was that I knew I was breaking the rules while violating them—and I didn’t give a damn about it. In the moment, I turned into the Incredible Hulk and everything switched to autopi- lot mode. I smashed at my keyboard like a savage. Everything I had learned up to this point in my (short- lived) trading career was thrown out the window. I had literally unleashed an animal that I had no control of. I’ve never experienced such poor self-discipline in my normal life—ever. Today was a reminder of how fragile the trading mindset can be. All it takes is one moment—a FILG one —to send you spiraling out of control. All of these rules and checklists I had been adhering to were useless in the face of such madness. They were nothing but delicate paper walls I had erected to trick myself into believing that my emotions were in check. They came crumbling down under the slightest pressure. It was all an illusion; I was delusional. I have a lot of reflecting and contemplating to do this weekend. I might take a break from trading to rebuild my psyche. Maybe I’ll visit a monastery to cleanse myself of all these trading sins. But first I need to forgive myself. Now I’m just rambling like a fool. Thanks for reading, and remember—don’t trade like a crackhead”. I know being wrong hurts but here are the remedies to do in such circumstances. Shut down your computer sets for that day: The is a saying that “He who doesn’t bet the farm on one trade lives to trade another day. Setups as far as trading is concerned is a repeatable outcome, as far as your strategy has an edge, then your setups will always come. Move away for that day and return the next day. Have a source of happiness: It’s not just shutting down the system but what do you do after putting the system off, you must as a trader have something that brings happiness to you naturally, it could be hanging out with friends, playing soccer or having some cool time with your kids or maybe taking some yummy ice cream or whatever. Personally when bad days or wrong days usually comes around, I do play virtual games and this just has its own way of making me happy. After shutting down, make sure you locate your source of happiness immediately. Return like a baby the next day: The mind of a baby according to research is like a flowing river, it always keeps moving without thoughts of what happened previously, your mind as a trader should be like a baby. You should learn from your mistakes but don’t let it weigh you down. Resume office the next day with joy forgetting what occurred the previous day. Take trading decisions according to your strategy and let the trades play out. Conclusion The key take away from this write up is learn to adjust, learn to accept your wrongs and act accordingly to it. Digest this my write up efficiently and still check out for other other resources I will be dropping soon. Always try as much as possible to see how you can improve both yourself and your trading carrier everyday of your life. SEE YOU AT THE TOP!!
Education
by Officialpipsome
1
How I manage the order volume?How I manage the order volume? I often trade Futures, where I can take advantage of leverage to optimize profits. But at first, I didn't know what was a reasonable amount to enter an order with. I know my maximum is 10% of my capital as I shared in the prev post. But when calculating with leverage, it made me quite confused at first. Try the following example. Suppose, I have 200USDT capital. I will enter 1 order, with a STOPLOSS level of 0.2% So each of my orders will be a maximum of 20USDT (ie 10% of total capital) And my maximum risk tolerance would be when I lose 25% of my money on a trade. That is 5USDT. Because the volume you place on the order is constant (certainly 10% of capital), so it is necessary to change the leverage to achieve the maximum loss tolerance, how do you calculate the leverage? Here's my way: 20*(25/0.2) = 2500x 2500x leverage? I certainly never had that much leverage lol. The problem appeared when the calculated leverage was too large. So what now when the max leverage is only 100x (I assume so, realistically is that there are many exchanges with higher leverage.) I will take the actual leverage needed when I use 10% of capital (here 2500x) and divide it by the available leverage (here 100x). So the actual volume needed to use with 100x leverage and achieve the stop loss condition when losing 25% of the amount on 1 order and the actual stop loss is 0.2% is: 20*(25/0.2)/100 = 25USDT You can enter an order with 25USDT, you will lose 5USDT (2.5% of total capital) when stoploss In short, to calculate actual volume and leverage, I will calculate according to this formula: A = 10% of total capital B = Maximum risk tolerance (I usually take 30%) C = Actual STOPLOSS Level D = Maximum Leverage Actual volume = A*(B/C)/D That's it, I hope the way I share can help you, this is the way I am using, very effective. You can comment below, I will try to answer. Enjoy DYOR
Education
by crypto_pumpppp
BITCOIN BULLISH short term!!!Bitcoin has broken through a massive downtrend and is now retesting the diagonal or dynamic resistance. If bitcoin manages to hold these levels, I would exspect prices to move higher at tap the 28k level. This is a great area to enter a long while managing your risk for a 2% max loss on trade if your stop-loss hits. You can also see that on the 6hr TF is is well oversold which is more bullish than bearish in the medium term. Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
by Navitility
2
HHRU - Leading job-search company hints that... ... Russian labor market is far from being week. Due to massive wave's extensions beyond classic fibonacci levels, I am not placing big confidence on my EW count, but solely from market price and volume dynamics there is an argument to be made for price starting new advance to at least prior Sep's highs. Although, I am not a fan of big late-August weekly reversal candle, creating overhead supplies (potential downside pressure from those buyers who bough the Aug's highs and still holding loses), I do like how price finds support on ascending 10w MA line, that coincides with an ideal area for wave "iv" correction's support zone. So from the mid-term bullish price trend nothing is wrong or to be consider abnormal. Zooming in to the Daily landscape, we may observe, how the selling pressure subsides and price tries to form the right side of the potential "cup". Volume profile looks like how we want it to be with higher selling volume on the left side of the "cup" and higher buying volume on the right side of it. That potentially illustrate that sellers and their shares are being absorb by the buyers, that are starting to dominate moving the price up. General thesis : until price holds above 50D MA and in particular above 3050 area, at least one more wave to 4300 or even to 4900-5150 resistance zone could be considered. Short/Mid-Term thesis is wrong bellow 4300 zone. I did started building position in early October, I will consider holding if the price will not move below -3 and -5% from my average cost. I don't have any issues with stepping aside being stoped out and re-entering at the higher prices, if the price so wishes. All I need is tight risk-management parameters and price cooperating with my thesis in timely manner.
HLong
by artemfedorov
Unlocking The Trader's PyramidIn the realm of trading, success isn't solely derived from intricate technical analysis. Surprisingly, the key to triumph lies in an unconventional ratio: 20% technical analysis and a staggering 80% blend of emotions, discipline, psychology, risk management, and money management. If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜💜 The 20%: Technical Expertise Yes, technical analysis is crucial, comprising the foundational 20% of your crypto trading journey. This segment encompasses chart patterns, indicators, and market trends. However, it's not the sole determinant of your success. The 80%: The Pillars of Triumph The real magic happens within the 80%. Embracing your emotions, mastering discipline, understanding market psychology, and implementing astute risk and money management techniques form the cornerstone of your success. Emotional intelligence allows you to navigate market highs and lows, discipline ensures you stick to your strategies, and psychological resilience helps you stay steady amidst volatility. Effective risk and money management safeguard your capital and nurture your profits. This symbiotic blend of technical expertise and emotional intelligence propels you towards trading mastery. By allocating your focus and energy according to this pyramid, you're not just trading; you're sculpting success . Let this balanced approach be your guiding light in the trading journey! Happy trading! 💜
Education
by Vestinda
6
HOW TO EARN IN TRADING WITHOUT WATCHING THE CHART.Explore the fascinating investment strategy known as Shannon's Demon Theory. Unlike technical analysis, this method focuses on steadily growing your assets without the hassle of market timing, price fluctuations, or complex charts. I'll simplify it step by step, making it accessible for anyone to embark on a stable investment journey. Meet Claude Shannon , the genius mathematician and computer scientist born on April 30, 1916, in the United States. Known as the father of information theory and digital technology, Shannon revolutionized the way we comprehend and transmit information. Thanks to him, we can effortlessly send messages and share digital memories with friends. One of Shannon's remarkable contributions is the Balanced Portfolio Investment Theory, which we'll explore today. Imagine a simple coin-tossing game with a 50% chance of getting heads or tails. Shannon discovered how to profit from these random outcomes, showing that you can double your investment by winning with heads and only lose half if tails appear. In simple terms, if you invest $1,000 and win, you'll get $1,000, but if you lose, you'll only lose $500. Shannon emphasized the importance of not investing all your assets to mitigate risks. In reality, when tossing a coin multiple times, you'll often encounter situations where you get multiple heads or tails in a row, deviating from the expected 50-50 probability. However, Shannon argued that if there's an investment product that ultimately converges to a 0% return, you should invest in it immediately. He claimed that by investing only half of your money each time in this game, regardless of short-term results, you can achieve tremendous long-term returns. As you can see, by balancing your cash and investment in a 50-50 ratio, your returns gradually trend upward over time, even in a game that ultimately converges to 0%. This strategy can lead to incredible returns compared to investing all your assets. Imagine following Shannon's Demon method, alternating wins and losses for ten games starting with $1,000. With a natural 50% win rate, our initial $1,000 becomes an impressive $1,800, resulting in an 80% return on investment. To optimize outcomes, it's crucial to exercise caution and avoid excessive trading, which incurs transaction fees. Frequent trading can result in returns similar to long-term value investing or worse. Instead, adopting an appropriate trading frequency like rebalancing once a week or once a month helps maintain consistent growth in assets. Following Shannon's Balanced Portfolio Investment Theory may result in profits in a bull market or losses during unfavorable market conditions. However, over an extended period, the returns will ultimately follow an upward trajectory, regardless of the starting point. What sets Shannon's theory apart is its advantage in providing easy and stable investing without the need for market predictions. As you gather more trading statistics, you'll witness the significant difference in returns between simple value investing and Shannon's theory. Since the abandonment of the gold standard, the financial market has experienced significant changes. Money has become an infinite asset, while financial products have turned finite. Consequently, financial markets have exhibited an upward bias over the long term. With an ample trading dataset, Shannon's approach proves more advantageous in financial markets than relying solely on chance. Between 1950 and 1986, Shannon achieved an average annual compound return of 28%, surpassing Warren Buffett's returns based on statistics. By rebalancing between one week and one month, he reported no negative returns during those 36 years. Consistency and compounding lead to substantial profits and accomplishments over time. We can learn two essential truths from Shannon's Demon investment method: 1. You don't need to force yourself to invest in all seed money with every trade. 2. Long-term statistics are more important than short-term statistics. These two principles are like timeless rules in the world of investment. If you lack a deep understanding of technical analysis and market timing or struggle with risk management despite having some market timing knowledge, consider applying this theory. Follow and Boost for your financial success ! Write your thoughts in the comment section.
by Wealthy_Stats
Kelly Criterion and other common position-sizing methodsWhat is position sizing & why is it important? Position size refers to the amount of risk - money, contracts, equity, etc. - that a trader uses when entering a position on the financial market. We assume, for ease, that traders expect a 100% profit or loss as a result of the profit lost. Common ways to size positions are: Using a set amount of capital per trade . A trader enters with $100 for example, every time. This means that no matter what the position is, the maximum risk of it will be that set capital. It is the most straight-forward way to size positions, and it aims at producing linear growth in their portfolio. Using a set amount of contracts per trade . A trader enters with 1 contract of the given asset per trade. When trading Bitcoin, for example, this would mean 1 contract is equal to 1 Bitcoin. This approach can be tricky to backtest and analyse, since the contract’s dollar value changes over time. A trade that has been placed at a given time when the dollar price is high may show as a bigger win or loss, and a trade at a time when the dollar price of the contract is less, can be shown as a smaller win or loss. Percentage of total equity - this method is used by traders who decide to enter with a given percentage of their total equity on each position. It is commonly used in an attempt to achieve ‘exponential growth’ of the portfolio size. However, the following fictional scenario will show how luck plays a major role in the outcome of such a sizing method. Let’s assume that the trader has chosen to enter with 50% of their total capital per position. This would mean that with an equity of $1000, a trader would enter with $500 the first time. This could lead to two situations for the first trade: - The position is profitable, and the total equity now is $1500 - The position is losing, and the total equity now is $500. When we look at these two cases, we can then go deeper into the trading process, looking at the second and third positions they enter. If the first trade is losing, and we assume that the second two are winning: a) 500 * 0.5 = 250 entry, total capital when profitable is 750 b) 750 * 0.5 = 375 entry, total capital when profitable is $1125 On the other hand, If the first trade is winning, and we assume that the second two are winning too: a) 1500 * 0.5 = 750 entry, total capital when profitable is $2250 b) 2250 * 0.5 = 1125 entry, total capital when profitable is $3375 Let’s recap: The trader enters with 50% of the capital and, based on the outcome of the first trade, even if the following two trades are profitable, the difference between the final equity is: a) First trade lost: $1125 b) First trade won: $3375 This extreme difference of $2250 comes from the single first trade, and whether it’s profitable or not. This goes to show that luck is extremely important when trading with percentage of equity, since that first trade can go any way. Traders often do not take into account the luck factor that they need to have to reach exponential growth . This leads to very unrealistic expectations of performance of their trading strategy. What is the Kelly Criterion? The percentage of equity strategy, as we saw, is dependent on luck and is very tricky. The Kelly Criterion builds on top of that method, however it takes into account factors of the trader’s strategy and historical performance to create a new way of sizing positions. This mathematical formula is employed by investors seeking to enhance their capital growth objectives. It presupposes that investors are willing to reinvest their profits and expose them to potential risks in subsequent trades. The primary aim of this formula is to ascertain the optimal allocation of capital for each individual trade. The Kelly criterion encompasses two pivotal components: Winning Probability Factor (W) : This factor represents the likelihood of a trade yielding a positive return. In the context of TradingView strategies, this refers to the Percent Profitable. Win/Loss Ratio (R) : This ratio is calculated by the maximum winning potential divided by the maximum loss potential. It could be taken as the Take Profit / Stop-Loss ratio. It can also be taken as the Largest Winning Trade / Largest Losing Trade ratio from the backtesting tab. The outcome of this formula furnishes investors with guidance on the proportion of their total capital to allocate to each investment endeavour. Commonly referred to as the Kelly strategy, Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, the formula can be expressed as follows: Kelly % = W - (1 - W) / R Where: Kelly % = Percent of equity that the trader should put in a single trade W = Winning Probability Factor R = Win/Loss Ratio This Kelly % is the suggested percentage of equity a trader should put into their position, based on this sizing formula. With the change of Winning Probability and Win/Loss ratio, traders are able to re-apply the formula to adjust their position size. Let’s see an example of this formula. Let’s assume our Win/Loss Ration (R) is the Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss from the TradingView backtesting statistics. Let’s say the Win/Loss ratio is 0.965. Also, let’s assume that the Winning Probability Factor is the Percent Profitable statistics from TradingView’s backtesting window. Let’s assume that it is 70%. With this data, our Kelly % would be: Kelly % = 0.7 - (1 - 0.7) / 0.965 = 0.38912 = 38.9% Therefore, based on this fictional example, the trader should allocate around 38.9% of their equity and not more, in order to have an optimal position size according to the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly formula, in essence, aims to answer the question of “What percent of my equity should I use in a trade, so that it will be optimal”. While any method it is not perfect, it is widely used in the industry as a way to more accurately size positions that use percent of equity for entries. Caution disclaimer Although adherents of the Kelly Criterion may choose to apply the formula in its conventional manner, it is essential to acknowledge the potential downsides associated with allocating an excessively substantial portion of one's portfolio into a solitary asset. In the pursuit of diversification, investors would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investments that surpass 20% of their overall equity, even if the Kelly Criterion advocates a more substantial allocation. Source about information on Kelly Criterion www.investopedia.com
Education
by sofex
4
Role of Risk Management in Trading and How to calculate riskThe Foundations of Solid Risk Management 🛡️📊: Risk management in trading involves a series of strategic decisions aimed at minimizing potential losses. It revolves around understanding the risks associated with each trade and employing measures to mitigate them. Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, risk management remains a non-negotiable aspect of sustainable trading. 👍 Pros of Effective Risk Management: Shields your trading capital from significant losses. Provides a structured framework for decision-making. Fosters discipline and rationality in the face of market fluctuations. 👎 Cons of Neglecting Risk Management: Exposes your portfolio to undue risks that can lead to substantial losses. Increases the likelihood of emotional decision-making driven by fear and greed. The Emotional and Financial Benefits of Risk Management 🧘‍♂️❤️: Effective risk management isn't just about preserving your financial resources; it's also about maintaining emotional equilibrium. When traders implement robust risk management strategies, they reduce the psychological stress and anxiety that often accompany trading. This enables traders to make more logical decisions, avoiding impulsive actions triggered by heightened emotions. Calculating Position Size and Setting Stop Losses 📈🛑: Two key elements of risk management are calculating the appropriate position size and setting stop-loss levels. These practices are integral to controlling the amount of capital at risk in each trade. By determining the position size based on a percentage of your capital and setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses, traders ensure that no single trade can significantly erode their account balance. Comparing Potential Losses and Gains for Different Risk Management Scenarios 💹📉: Let's explore how the 2% rule affects potential outcomes for different risk management scenarios: Risking 2% of a $1000 Deposit: Maximum Risk per Trade: $20 (2% of $1000) Potential Loss: Limited to $20 per trade Potential Gain: Can vary, but the focus is on maintaining risk control Risking 5% of a $1000 Deposit: Maximum Risk per Trade: $50 (5% of $1000) Potential Loss: Larger at $50 per trade Potential Gain: Higher, but the risk of significant losses is elevated Risking 10% of a $1000 Deposit: Maximum Risk per Trade: $100 (10% of $1000) Potential Loss: Considerably larger at $100 per trade Potential Gain: Higher compared to 2% risk, but risk of capital depletion is significant How to calculate your position size ? You can easily calculate risk directly in TradingView using the built-in calculator! Choose the direction of your position - long or short. The next step is to set up according to your deposit and risk per trade. After that, simply drag it onto the chart in line with your stop loss and take profit (more on this in the upcoming article), and it will automatically calculate the position size for you!
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
11
BluetonaFX - AUDCAD LONG Trade IdeaHi Traders! There is bullish momentum forming on the AUDCAD 1D chart as the pair looks to possibly retest the resistance area. Price Action 📊 There are higher highs and higher lows above the trendline support, and a bullish momentum candle is forming to break above the 20 EMA. Looking for a momentum break and a close above the 20 EMA for possible long entries to exit at the resistance area between 0.86668 and 0.88486 Fundamental Analysis 📰 The market's outlook on the AUD has been very positive this week, with a significant improvement in the employment situation in Australia. Support 📉 0.86668: SUPPORT TRENDLINE Resistance 📈 0.88198: FIRST RESISTANCE 0.88486: SECOND RESISTANCE Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀, as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
10
The Power of Risk ManagementRisk management is one of the key topics in forex trading that is not emphasised enough. Instead, there is too much emphasis on solely focusing on being on the right side of the market to consistently make money while ignoring proper risk management in the process. This post will completely debunk this, so after you have finished reading, you will hopefully have a completely new mindset on how to actually succeed long-term in forex. Absolute Uncertainty The forex market is a place where the majority of people struggle to find consistency. This is due to the nature of the market, where uncertainty is constant. What I mean by this is that the market is completely irrational and neutral; when you want to buy, there is somebody else on the other side that wants to sell, and vice versa. The market is filled with millions of other participants with their own goals, beliefs, and motivations; therefore, the market will go where it wants to go. Unfortunately, not enough people really grasp what this means and are obsessed with how many trades they can get right to make money. The main purpose of risk management in forex is to reduce your trading risk and grow your trading capital safely. It is great to have good skills in determining the market's direction, but more importantly, you need to have good risk management skills too. Two different traders, Same Trades, Two different outcomes Let's put this into practice. Let us assume that two different traders both took the exact same ten trades and both won five of the ten trades taken. Let's call these traders 'Trader A' and 'Trader B. Trader A is just obsessed with being right in the market. The trader is quite skilled in understanding the market, but the trader is just focused on how many trades are closed at profit. Trader A risks about 2% per trade; however, trades are usually cut short, and thus ends up taking profit at about half of the initial risk (2% risk per trade and 0.5:1 risk-reward). Trader B understands that the market is completely irrational, where anything can happen at any time, and to trade the market succesfully, must treat trading like a business, causing the trader to have strict risk management rules (2% risk per trade and 2:1 risk-reward) that are stuck to at all times. As you can see from the above image, Trader A ended up with a 5% decrease to the account and Trader B ended up with a 9.98% increase to the account after both traders taking the same ten trades, why did this happen? The answer is simple Trader A cut the profits short and ran the losses whereas Trader B ran the profits and cut the losses. It does not matter if you are right or wrong in trading what matters is how much you make from your right trades and how much you give back to the market on your wrong trades. Forex Journey Ends Before Getting Started Due to many people not understanding the power of risk management, their journey in forex ends before it even gets started. To explain further, a lot of traders either do not calculate their risk before they trade the markets or they are aware of their risk but decide not to place high importance on it (a fatal mistake). This is one of the biggest killers of forex traders, and all it takes is one bad trade before the market takes all your hard-earned money and you are out. The market is an unforgivable place that will not care if you are blown out; it will continue to go on with or without you participating, and you must give it respect. The higher your risk, the lower your long-term survivability probabilities are. Remember, if you don't have funds to trade, you can't participate! It is as simple as that, so you must treat trading as a business and not as a casual hobby if you aim to consistently make money over the long term. Let's see how your survivability chance decreases the more you risk. Position Sizing Now that you understand how crucial it is not to risk too much of your account in a trade but do not know exactly how to calculate how much you should be risking per trade, how do we calculate this? In forex, a pip movement on a one-lot contract is approximately $10, so if you enter a trade on a forex pair and it moves 20 pips against you, you will be approximately $200 down. It is very important to understand this because if you do not, you will not know how much you should be risking per trade, and you may end up overexposed in the market with a high chance of blowing your account. For example, if you have a $10,000 account balance and want to risk 2% ($200) of your account per trade on a one-lot contract, that is 20 pips; therefore, your stop loss should be around 20 pips. However, on the same account balance, if your stop loss is 100 pips, let's say, and you are not aware of pip calculations, you are potentially risking 10% of your account in that trade alone, which is extremely dangerous, and as seen in the above example, it only takes 10 trades in a row to blow your account on 10% risk per trade. But what if your strategy requires a 100-pip stop loss, as that is where your stop loss level is, and you really want to enter the trade? You just have to trade a smaller position size! 2% of $10,000 is $200, and we know that 1 pip is equal to around $10, so $200 is equal to 20 pips. Now how do we trade this with good risk management if we want a 100-pip stop? Let's see the image below: So as you can see in the above image, if you are on a 2% rule, which is good risk management, all you need to do is reduce the position size if your strategy requires a larger stop. There is nothing stopping you from entering the position. In the forex market, safety must come first at all times. To add, it is not worth having a smaller stop loss just to be able to trade a bigger position size, as this can be very detrimental to your trading due to the fact that in forex, there is a lot of market noise due to so many participants, and it is very easy to get whipsawed on a small stop loss and get taken out of your position. The next time you are about to enter a position, ask yourself if it would be better to have a larger stop to protect yourself from getting squeezed out of the position. If so, just reduce your position size accordingly and have a larger stop. Always remember that the market does not limit you from trading your opportunities if you have a larger stop but do not want to risk a large percent of your account in the trade; you just have to trade smaller. Plan, Analyse, Assess, Review 1. Plan Before you take a trade, always have a plan for your risk management. The 2% risk per trade rule is always a safe rule, and the best traders tend to use this rule. Always know what your account balance is, what your risk amount should be, and exactly where your stop-loss needs to be. Always remember that if your stop is too tight, try trading a lower position size to give you more leeway. 2. Analyse When you get a trade setup, before you pull the trigger and enter the trade, ask yourself, "Is there enough reward in this trade setup that it is worth entering the trade?" If the answer is no, do not take the trade! Remember, trading is not just about being right or wrong; it is also about how much you take or give to the market when you are right or wrong. The reward must always be worth the risk, and you must constantly analyse this before entering the market. 3. Assess Make sure you often assess your current risk management, especially when you are in a trading position. For example, if your position is about to reach your take-profit target but the market looks like it wants to keep going past your target, instead of coming out of the position completely, why don't you instead take some of the position out and keep the rest of the position in? You can trail your profit to your original target and potentially make extra profits this way with nothing to lose. The same goes on the other side: if you enter a trade and at some point are no longer comfortable with the position, do not be scared to cut the position short and exit the position. Always listen to your gut instinct, as it may be telling you something for a reason. 4. Review Always review your risk management. Take a look at your past trades and try to learn from them. Was your stop-loss too tight in a lot of your trades? Was your stop not tight enough in a lot of your trades? Are you cutting yourself short, and could you have a higher risk-to-reward ratio in a lot of your trades? There is always room for improvement, and the only way to improve your risk management is to review your previous trading history to see what possible adjustments you could make to your risk management. Remember, you should treat trading as a business if you want to succeed long-term, and most, if not all, successful businesses constantly review their risk management. The power of risk management is absolute. If this post has not done enough to convince you of this, always remember that you are always one bad trade away from being put out of business. The majority of beginner traders blow their accounts in the first three months of trading; this is not due to them not understanding the markets but due to poor risk management and not treating trading as a business. Always remember to maximise your profits and cut your losses. All trading involves risk, and there is no 'holy grail' strategy that can eliminate risk entirely. However, by managing your risks effectively, you can reduce the impact of risk on your trading and increase your chances of long-term success. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
4
Are You Taking the Right Risks in Trading? Best RISK Per Trade What portion of your equity should you risk for your trading positions? In the today's article, I will reveal the types of risks related to your position sizing. Quick note: your risk per trade will be defined by the distance from your entry point to stop loss in pips and the lot size. 🟢Risking 1-2% of your trading account per trade will be considered a low risk. With such a risk, one can expect low returns but a high level of safety of the total equity. Such a risk is optimal for conservative and newbie traders. With limited account drawdowns, one will remain psychologically stable during the negative trading periods. 🟡2-5% risk per trade is a medium risk. With such a risk, one can expect medium returns but a moderate level of safety of the total equity. Such a risk is suitable for experienced traders who are able to take losses and psychologically resilient to big drawdowns and losing streaks. 🔴5%+ risk per trade is a high risk. With such a risk, one can expect high returns but a low level of safety of the total equity. Such a risk is appropriate for rare, "5-star" trading opportunities where all stars align and one is extremely confident in the positive outcome. That winner alone can bring substantial profits, while just 2 losing trades in a row will burn 10% of the entire capital. 🛑15%+ risk per trade is considered to be a stupid risk. With such a risk, one can blow the entire trading account with 4-5 trades losing streak. Taking into consideration the fact that 100% trading setups does not exist, such a risk is too high to be taken. The problem is that most of the traders does not measure the % risk per trade and use the fixed lot. Never make such a mistake and plan your risks according to the scale that I shared with you. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
15
Guard Your Funds: Only risk what you can afford to lose.🎉 Risk Management tip for Vesties and @TradingView community! 🚀 😲 We all know the saying "only risk what you can afford to lose," but do you know the powerful impact it can have on your trading journey? 🤔 In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency and futures trading, one fundamental principle stands as the cornerstone of profitable and sustainable trading journeys: Only risk what you can afford to lose. Embracing this essential concept is crucial for preserving capital, maintaining emotional stability, and cultivating a disciplined approach to risk management. In this article, we will delve into the significance of operating money and risk within the confines of one's financial capacity and explore the key pillars that underpin this approach. Understanding Risk Tolerance and Capital Allocation: 1. Assessing Individual Risk Tolerance: To truly understand one's risk tolerance and establish a robust risk management strategy, traders are encouraged to engage in a thought exercise that involves imagining potential losses in tangible terms. Visualize throwing money into the bin or burning it completely, purely to experience the feeling of losing money. This exercise may seem unconventional, but it serves a crucial purpose: it helps traders gauge their emotional response to monetary losses. During this exercise, consider the two extreme scenarios: the first being the largest amount of money you can lose without causing significant distress, and the second being the maximum amount of loss that would completely devastate you financially and emotionally. These two amounts represent your Fine Risk and Critical Risk , which reflects the sum you are willing and able to lose over a specific period of time without compromising your financial well-being. 👉 The next step involves breaking down the Fine Risk into smaller, manageable parts. 🔑 Divide the Fine Risk into 10 or even 20 equal parts, each representing the risk amount for every individual trade. This approach is designed to create a safety net for traders, especially when they encounter unfavorable market conditions. For instance, imagine a scenario where you face five consecutive losing trades. With each trade representing only a fraction of your Fine Risk, the cumulative loss remains relatively small compared to your risk capability, providing emotional resilience and the ability to continue trading with confidence. By splitting the Fine Risk into smaller portions, we can safeguard their capital and ensure that a string of losses does not result in irreversible damage to our trading accounts or emotional well-being. Additionally, this approach promotes a disciplined and structured trading mindset, encouraging us to adhere to their predefined risk management rules and avoid impulsive decisions based on emotions. Remember, risk management is not solely about avoiding losses but also about preserving the means to participate in the market over the long term. 2. Establishing a Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The risk-to-reward ratio is a critical metric that every trader must comprehend to develop a successful trading system. It is a representation of the potential risk taken in a trade relative to the potential reward. For a well-balanced and sustainable approach to trading, it is essential to ensure that the risk-to-reward ratio is greater than 1:1.10. A risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.10 implies that for every unit of risk taken, the trader expects a potential reward of 1.10 units. This ratio serves as a safety measure, ensuring that over time, the profits generated from winning trades will outweigh the losses incurred from losing trades. While there is a popular notion that the risk-to-reward ratio should ideally be 1:3, what truly matters is that the ratio remains above the 1:1.10 mark. Maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.10 is beneficial for several reasons. Firstly, it allows traders to cover their losses in the long term. Even with a series of losing trades, the accumulated profits from winning trades will offset the losses, allowing traders to continue trading without significant setbacks. Secondly, a risk-to-reward ratio higher than 1:1.10, combined with proper risk management and a well-executed trading system, enables traders to accumulate profits over time. Consistently achieving a slightly better reward than the risk taken can lead to substantial gains in the long run. 3. Determining Appropriate Position Sizes: Once you have a clear understanding of your risk amount and risk-to-reward ratio, you can proceed to calculate appropriate position sizes for each trade. To do this, you can use a simple formula: Position Size = (Risk Amount per Trade / Stop Loss) * 100% Let's take an example to illustrate this calculation: Example: Risk Amount per Trade: $100 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 Stop Loss: -4.12% Take Profit: +8.26% Using the formula: Position Size = ($100 / -4.12%) * 100% Position Size ≈ $2427.18 In this example, your calculated position size is approximately $2427.18. This means that for this particular trade, you would allocate a position size of approximately $2427.18 to ensure that your risk exposure remains at $100. After executing the trade, let's say the trade turned out to be profitable, and you achieved a profit of $200. This outcome is a result of adhering to a well-calculated position size that aligns with your risk management strategy. By determining appropriate position sizes based on your risk tolerance and risk-to-reward ratio, you can effectively control your exposure to the market. This approach helps you maintain consistency in risk management and enhances your ability to manage potential losses while allowing your profits to compound over time. Emotions and Psychology in Risk Management: A. The Impact of Emotions on Trading Decisions: Emotions can significantly influence trading decisions, often leading to suboptimal outcomes. Traders must recognize the impact of emotions such as fear, greed, and excitement on their decision-making processes. Emotional biases can cloud judgment and result in impulsive actions, which can be detrimental to overall trading performance. B. Recognizing and Managing Fear and Greed: Fear and greed are two dominant emotions that can disrupt a trader's ability to make rational choices. By developing self-awareness and recognizing emotional triggers, traders can gain better control over their reactions. Implementing techniques to manage fear and greed, such as setting predefined entry and exit points, can help traders navigate turbulent market conditions. C. Developing a Disciplined Trading Mindset: A disciplined trading mindset is the bedrock of successful risk management. This involves adhering to a well-defined trading plan that outlines risk management rules and strategies. By staying committed to the plan and maintaining a long-term perspective, traders can resist impulsive actions and maintain discipline during times of market volatility. D. Techniques for Avoiding Impulsive and Emotional Trading: To avoid impulsive and emotional trading, traders can employ various techniques. Implementing cooling-off periods before making trade decisions allows traders to gain clarity before acting. Seeking support from trading communities or mentors provides valuable insights and helps traders stay grounded. Utilizing automated trading systems can reduce emotional interference and ensure trades are executed based on predefined criteria. In the world of cryptocurrency and futures trading, the fundamental principle of "only risk what you can afford to lose" remains the cornerstone of successful trading. Embracing this concept is essential for preserving capital, maintaining emotional stability, and cultivating a disciplined approach to risk management. Understanding individual risk tolerance and breaking down total risk into smaller portions allows traders to navigate unfavorable market conditions with resilience. Maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio above 1:1.10 ensures that profits outweigh losses over time, while determining appropriate position sizes enables effective risk control. Emotions play a significant role in trading decisions, and managing fear and greed empowers traders to make rational choices. Employing techniques to avoid impulsive trading, like cooling-off periods and seeking support, reinforces a disciplined trading mindset. In conclusion, adhering to the principle of only risking what you can afford to lose leads to sustainable success in the dynamic trading world. By implementing effective risk management practices, traders enhance their chances of achieving profitability and longevity in their trading journeys. 📝👋 Feedback is super important to us! 😊 We would absolutely love to hear your thoughts and comments about the article. 🧐 Did you find the information helpful and well-explained? 🤔 Your feedback means a lot to us and will help us improve our content to provide better insights in the future. 😇 Thank you so much for taking the time to share your thoughts! 🙏 We're excited to hear from you! 💬
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Vestinda
Gbp/Usd Reaches Fair Value.Gooday to you all. Gbp/Usd Reaches Fair Value. Today's idea is around the British pound vs The US Dollar (Gbp/Usd) We spotted fair price for the fX/Currency pair that we believe will produce a potential buy opportunity for the pair. We will buy the pair should we we have a 1hr candle close above the identified price zone at 1.28200 with profit target set to 1.29300 Use adequate risk management if you are to execute a trade with this analyses. Enjoy and happy trading! We are the #ExodusTradingDesk.
Long
by ExodusTradingDesk
Understanding US Economic newsUS Economic Indicators: We know about trends and trend changes, but why a trend changes? The tops and bottoms of the market are determined by the fundamentals, like news releases, while the technicals show us how we get between those two points. So a news release can be the cause or trigger of a trend change. So it is to our advantage to at least be aware of upcoming news releases. Here are some releases to watch for: Non-Farm Payrolls Non-Farm Payrolls have proven itself to be one of the most significant fundamental indicators in recent U.S. history. As a report of the number of new jobs created outside the farming industry each month, a positive or negative NFP can get traders to act very hastily. A better than expected figure is very bullish for the dollar, whereas a more sluggish number usually results in the dollar being sold off. There is another component of unemployment released on the same day: The Unemployment Rate. Unemployment measures the amount of people that are out of a job, but are actively seeking one. If this number is smaller, then it means that the people that are seeking jobs are finding them, possibly meaning that businesses are well off and that the economy is expanding. The NFP is a number, usually between 5-6 figures, whereas the Unemployment rate is a percentage. A higher NFP number and lower unemployment number are generally bullish for the dollar and vice versa. It is difficult to trade the NFP and Unemployment Rate only because many times traders will not pay attention to what seems to be the most significant components, but will instead focus in on what reinforces their bias. Also, the release causes a significant amount of volatility in the markets. FOMC Rate Decision Interest Rate decisions for the Fed Funds Rate are very important when trading the U.S. Dollar. When the Fed raises interest rates, the yield offered by dollar denominated assets are higher, which generally attracts more traders and investors. If interest rates are lowered, that means that the yield offered by dollar denominated assets is less, which will give investors less of an incentive to invest in dollars. When the decision is made about the rate it is always accompanied by a statement where the Fed gives a brief summary of what they think of the economy as a whole. When reading the statement it is important to check the exact language. Many times by the time that the decision is published, it is usually factored into the market. This means that only slight fluctuations are seen if the decision is as expected. The statement on the other hand is analyzed word for word for any signs of what the Fed may do at the next meeting. Remember the actual interest rate movement tends to be less important than the expectations for future interest rate moves. Retail Sales The Retail Sales figure is an important number in a series of key economic data that comes out during the month. Because it measures how much businesses are selling and consumers are purchasing, a strong retail sales figure could signal dollar bullishness because it means strength in the US economy, whereas a less-than-expected number could lead to dollar bearishness. Again, the logic behind this is that if consumers are spending more, and businesses are making more money, then the economy is picking up pace, and to keep inflation from creeping in during this time period, the Fed may have to raise rates, all of which would be positive for the US dollar. Traders tend to use the Retail Sales figure more as a leading indicator for other releases such as Consumer Confidence and CPI, and thereby don’t usually “jump the gun,” unless the numbers are terribly out of proportion. Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries (TIC Data) The Treasury International Capital flow (TIC) reports on net foreign securities purchases measures the amount of US treasuries and dollar denominated assets that foreigners are holding. A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the U.S. dollar. Looking at the different central banks, most important seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two giant US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month’s trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country. As a side note, purchases by Caribbean central banks are generally seen to be less consistent since most hedge funds are incorporated in the Caribbean. Hedge funds generally have a much shorter holding period than other investors. US Trade Balance The Trade Balance figure is a measure of net exports minus net imports and tends to be negative for the U.S. as it is primarily a “consuming” nation. However, a growing imbalance in the Trade Balance suggests much about the current account and whether or not if the U.S. is “overspending” on foreign goods and services. Traders will understand a decreasing Trade Balance number to implicate dollar bullishness, whereas a growing disparity between exports and imports will lead to dollar bearishness. Because the figure precedes the Current Account release, it pretty much helps project the direction of change in the Current Account and also begins to factor in those expectations. Current Account Balance The U.S. Current Account is a figure representing the total accrued deficit of the U.S per quarter against foreign nations. Traders will interpret a greater deficit as bad news for the U.S. and will consequently sell the dollar, whereas a shrinking deficit will spark dollar bullishness. Usually, the Current Account Deficit is expected to be funded by the net foreign securities, but when ends don’t meet in these data, the Current Account could signal a big dollar sell-off. Additionally, because the Current Account data comes out after the Trade Balance Numbers, a lot of its expectations begin to get priced into the market, so a surprise to either side of expectations could result in big market movements for the dollar. Consumer Price Index (CPI)/Producer Price Index (PPI) The Consumer Price Index is one of the leading economic gauges to measure the pace of inflation. Many investors and the Fed constantly monitor this figure to get an understanding about the future of interest rates. Interest rates are significant because not only do they have a direct impact on the amount of capital inflow into the country, but also say much about dollar-based carry trades. If the inflation number comes in higher than expected, traders will interpret that to mean that an interest rate hike is more likely in the near future and will thus buy dollars, whereas a figure that falls short of expectations may cause traders to wait on the sideline until the Fed actually makes a decision. Essentially, trading a negative change in CPI is much more difficult than trading a positive change due to the nature of different interpretations. A significant increase in the CPI will result in much dollar bullishness, but a decrease will not necessarily result in dollar bearishness. The CPI measures inflation at the retail level (consumers), while the PPI measures the inflation at the wholesale level (producers). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The U.S. Gross Domestic Product is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the U.S. economy. If the figure increases, the economy is improving, and often the dollar will strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy to be mired by inflation and consequently interest rates will go up. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance Durable Goods The Durable Good figure measures the amount of capital spending the U.S. is doing, such as on equipment, transportation, etc., both on a business and personal level. Essentially, the more the U.S. spends the more the dollar stands to benefit; the opposite is also true. This is because increased spending could very well be a harbinger for inflation, and thus consequently, interest rate hikes. Traders will usually focus in on the durable goods figure, but not too deeply, as it usually precedes data regarding housing starts and the annualized GDP figure release. Therefore trading based on the Durable Goods number is only voluminous when stagnancy in other key economic releases has been confirmed by a market consensus.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
21
EURUSD I Starting to consolidate I Will head downWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
25
Risk Management Strategies for Conservative& Aggressive Traders📚 #Risk_management Risk management in forex for retail traders is essential, especially considering the use of leverage. Leverage allows traders to control larger positions in the market with a smaller amount of capital. While leverage can amplify profits, it also increases the risk of losses. Here's how risk management and leverage factor into forex trading: -Position Sizing with Leverage: When using leverage, traders need to be cautious about the size of their positions. Higher leverage ratios allow for larger positions, but they also increase the potential for significant losses. Proper position sizing is crucial to ensure that potential losses are within the trader's risk tolerance. -Stop-Loss Orders with Leverage: Leverage magnifies the impact of market movements, which means losses can accumulate quickly. Placing appropriate stop-loss orders becomes even more critical when using leverage. Traders should set stop-loss levels based on their risk tolerance and the volatility of the currency pair being traded. -Risk-Reward Ratio with Leverage: Leverage affects the risk-reward ratio. While leverage can enhance potential profits, it can also amplify losses. Traders should be mindful of maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio when considering their profit targets and potential losses. -Diversification with Leverage: Diversification is important for risk management, especially when using leverage. By spreading exposure across different currency pairs or trading strategies, traders can minimize the impact of adverse price movements. Diversification helps to mitigate the risk associated with concentrated positions. -Trading Plan and Journal with Leverage: When using leverage, having a well-defined trading plan is crucial. It outlines the risk management rules, including leverage usage, position sizing, and stop-loss levels. Maintaining a trading journal becomes even more important as it helps traders review their leverage usage and analyze the impact on their trading performance. -Emotional Control with Leverage: Leverage can heighten emotional responses in trading. Traders may be tempted to take on excessive risks or panic during periods of losses. Emotional control becomes vital to avoid impulsive decisions driven by fear or greed. Traders should stick to their risk management plan and avoid overleveraging. In summary, risk management in forex trading is even more crucial when leverage is involved. Traders need to carefully consider position sizing, set appropriate stop-loss levels, maintain a favorable risk-reward ratio, diversify their trades, adhere to their trading plan, and exercise emotional control. By incorporating these practices, traders can navigate the risks associated with leverage and protect their trading capital.
TVC:DXYEducation
by Moon_SmartMoney
2
Educational: Relative Drawdown vs. Absolute DrawdownUnderstanding the concepts of relative drawdown and absolute drawdown is crucial for effective risk management and evaluating the performance of trading strategies. In this publication, we will delve into the understanding of both relative drawdown and absolute drawdown. 🔷 Relative Drawdown: (Sometimes referred to as equity drawdown) Relative drawdown is like looking at how much your money went down compared to the highest amount of money you had in your piggy bank before it started going down. Relative drawdown measures the decline in equity relative to the previous peak value, expressed as a percentage. It provides a proportional view of the drawdown in comparison to the highest equity point achieved. Traders often utilize relative drawdown to assess the performance of their trading strategies over time. By calculating the relative drawdown, traders can determine the percentage loss from the peak and evaluate the strategy's ability to recover from losses. For example, if a trading account reaches a peak equity of $10,000 and subsequently experiences a drawdown with a low point of $8,000, the relative drawdown would be 20% ($2,000 decline divided by $10,000 peak). A higher relative drawdown indicates a more significant loss relative to the previous peak, potentially highlighting the need for adjustments in risk management or strategy refinement. 🔸Relative drawdown provides traders with insights into the consistency of their strategies and the extent of losses experienced during adverse market conditions. It helps them compare the drawdowns of different strategies or trading systems using a percentage-based metric, enabling a better understanding of risk exposure and the ability to set realistic expectations. 🔷 Absolute Drawdown: (Sometimes referred to as balance drawdown) In contrast to relative drawdown, absolute drawdown quantifies the actual monetary value of the decline in equity from the initial balance to low . Continuing from the previous example, if the lowest equity point during the drawdown was $8,000, the absolute drawdown would be $2,000. Absolute drawdown focuses on the actual amount of money you lost from the starting point to the lowest point. It helps us understand the total decrease in money without comparing it to any percentages or ratios. 🔸By understanding the absolute drawdown, traders can assess the real monetary value lost during a drawdown period, which helps in making informed decisions regarding position sizing, risk allocation, and overall portfolio management. It also assists in evaluating the effectiveness of risk management strategies in terms of limiting losses during drawdowns. NB: It is worth noting that it is important to clarity when discussing balance base drawdown as the balance base drawdown can be calculated based on the starting balance of each day or trading session which in this case will have a drawdown calculated based on a dynamic balance as oppose to the static initial balance. ----------------- Relative and absolute drawdowns play a vital role in assessing the performance and risk exposure of trading strategies. While relative drawdown provides a percentage-based view of the decline in equity from the peak, absolute drawdown quantifies the monetary value of the loss. Traders should consider both types of drawdowns to effectively manage risk, set realistic expectations, and make informed decisions about their trading strategies. Remember, understanding and managing drawdowns are key elements of long-term success in the trading world. It's important to understand that drawdowns are a natural and inevitable part of trading. No trader, no matter how experienced or skilled, is immune to drawdowns. Here's a simplified explanation of why drawdowns occur and why traders should not be discouraged by them: When you play a game, there are times when you might make a mistake or encounter challenges that cause you to lose points. Similarly, in trading, the market can sometimes move in a way that goes against your expectations or trading strategy, causing temporary losses in your trading account. This decline in the value of your account is known as a drawdown. Drawdowns occur due to various factors, such as changes in market conditions, unexpected news events, or even errors in decision-making. Markets are influenced by many participants, and their behavior can be unpredictable at times. Therefore, it's natural to experience periods of drawdown. Traders should not be discouraged by drawdowns for a few important reasons: 🔸Learning Opportunity: Drawdowns provide valuable lessons for traders. They offer insights into potential weaknesses in their trading strategies or areas where they can improve their risk management. By analyzing drawdowns, traders can refine their approach and enhance their trading skills. 🔸Long-Term Perspective: Successful traders understand that trading is a long-term game. Drawdowns are often temporary and can be followed by periods of profitability. By maintaining a long-term perspective, traders can ride out drawdowns, knowing that their overall success is determined by their ability to stay focused, adapt, and stick to their trading plans. 🔸Risk Management: Drawdowns highlight the importance of proper risk management. Traders who implement effective risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders, diversifying their portfolios, and managing position sizes, can limit the impact of drawdowns on their overall trading performance. 🔸Psychological Resilience: Drawdowns test a trader's emotional resilience. Successful traders understand that emotions like fear or frustration can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. By developing emotional resilience and maintaining a disciplined mindset, traders can navigate drawdowns more effectively and make rational decisions based on their trading plans. 🔸Consistency is Key: Consistency in trading is crucial. Drawdowns are part of the journey to profitability. Traders who remain committed to their strategies, continue learning, and adapt as needed have a higher likelihood of success over the long run.
PEPPERSTONE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
2