Fundamental Analysis of EURUSDEURUSD is trading in the support area which has been respected by the price action since December of 2022. Similarly, there is an area of resistance.
There are two scenarios based on the current geopolitical tension and the policy of the new administration in the US.
Scenario#1: Risk OFF or USD depreciates against EUR and other currency pairs
The new US administration will take charge in Jan 2025, and by that time if the Scenario#2 has not happened then the EUR should appreciate significantly against USD. The new administration is expected to be business friendly. The US economy should get an ultra-boost because of lower taxes and less regulations.
There are many other promises made by the winning party like the increase in import tariffs on all the countries, deportation etc., maybe those promises were to attract voters. We don't know how it will play out, so we go with the simple approach that republican party means less regulation, hence business friendly.
Scenario#2: Risk ON or USD appreciates against EUR and other currency pairs
This scenario could play out even before the new administration takes charge!!! We don't know if it is a bluff from Russia or a real threat, but the fear of nuclear war can be frightening. Whenever there are major escalations in the world, the USD appreciates and that is as simple as 1 + 1 = 2, right?
Riskoff
Bitcoin Breaks Record, Shrugs Off Risk-On Label Gold extended gains for a third consecutive session, crossing $2,650 per ounce, as investors sought safety following an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also performing well and doesn't appear to be acting totally as a risk-on asset in this environment, surging to a fresh record high. President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is reportedly considering a dedicated cryptocurrency policy role within the White House, Bloomberg reported.
Adding to Bitcoin's momentum, the Financial Times revealed that Trump Media and Technology Company is in advanced talks to acquire crypto trading platform Bakkt.
Bitcoin remains above key technical levels, including the 50- and 100-day EMAs, while the RSI hit overbought territory at 80.
safe-haven play :USD vs. NZDIn several of my previous analyses, I mentioned the state of the Forex market due to geopolitical tensions . As a result, we are witnessing an increase in safe-haven currencies like USD compared to riskier currencies such as AUD and NZD. Therefore, by following proper risk management principles, you can open short positions on this currency pair.
Additionally, from a technical perspective, after breaking down the ascending channel, the price has formed the first wave of Elliott and, after its correction, has completed the second wave. In the most recent candle, it has entered the third impulsive wave.
Target 1: 0.59750
Target 2: 0.58626
Stop Loss: 0.61010
NZDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6080
Stop Loss: 0.6140 (60 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.5980 (100 pips below entry, offering a 1.67:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
The New Zealand dollar is displaying signs of weakness, and with global risk-off sentiment prevailing, NZD/USD may continue to fall towards 0.5980. This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.
AUDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6727
Stop Loss: 0.6800 (73 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.6600 (127 pips below entry, offering a 1.7:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
With global risk-off sentiment growing and commodity prices showing signs of weakness, AUD/USD could face further downside pressure. This setup capitalizes on potential bearish momentum, offering a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
SOL / USD ConsolidationNeutral consolidation for a week heading into major economic data. Any sort of risk-on response from the overall market could lead to significant upside. However a breakdown could flush out a lot of bulls in quick fashion.
Upwards price targets of: 151, 158, 163, and 184+
Downwards price targets: 134, 110, 104
Lower Technology Sector Pulls Cryptos LowerCryptocurrencies are trading to the downside, and we are seeing some sharp intraday sell-offs, most likely triggered by risk-off flows. As you know, normally when stocks are down, cryptos tend to move in the same direction, especially when there are significant sell-offs in the stock market like we've seen over the last few days, triggered by missed earning reports and lower technology sector. It's not surprising that we are seeing a pullback, which we have been warning about in our past updates.
Some of the coins are experiencing very sharp sell-offs and deeper retracements, while other stronger coins are hitting interesting support levels. Even Bitcoin, the most important cryptocurrency, is at a very interesting first area of support. However, looking at the total crypto market cap, there is a sharp one-leg down, suggesting a more complex and deeper ABC retracement before the market may really find new buyers. There is first tecnical strong support around the $2.24 trillion level.
Looking at the NASDAQ 100, there seems to be a very strong impulse away from the highs, so toš is in, but we see prices possibly in the 5th wave approaching some support around 19,000. If we get an ABC rally in the near term, that's when cryptos could also stabilize.
GH
Gold big picture: 2400 was "a" top? One more push to 2700 ?We appear to be in an Elliott "Wave 5".
Wave 5's in commodities tend to extend.
Likely a pullback first then next/last leg?
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Here is a Near-Term plot of possible retrace to $2307
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commodities high conviction entry in FebLooking back, commodities had a high conviction in february based on a longterm trend. Combining macd and BB break out.
Markets have either risk-on sentiment or defensive. During risk-on phase people want to put money to work, there is too much money. During risk-off or defensive, people want money and safety. Assets become too expensive. Bitcoin rallies during risk-on phases. Oil or gold can be either risk-on and risk-off . Markets are fascinating.
Faang can be a risk-on and risk-off, till everything becomes too expensive to have.
Markets leave clues. and they move on cycles.
It makes sense why commodities are risk-off . Small caps usually are risk-on (when economy does well, there are no global conflicts; ie the future is BRIGHT).
More concerns move the weight to risk-off , ie markets are a weighing machine longterm.
People tend to be stuck in one mood or another, and it's tough to adjust? markets can change gears quickly.
SQUIDGROW BIG RISK BIG GAIN PART 3 Let's clarify right away, this is an altcoin that has a small market cap, but some zones that should have held have held out, especially bullish on a large time frame. It is not a persuasion to buy, but my knowledge plus a trade idea
if you like this series, click like. See part 2 and part 1 below by clicking on the arrow where the price went
AUD/USD, NZD/USD hint at a round of risk-offIf commodity FX is anything to go by, we could be in for a bout of risk-off. The yen and US dollar were the strongest majors, which saw AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pull back from cycle highs and form bearish outside days alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
The fact that AUD/USD reversed at its 200-day average and closed beneath the 200-day EMA makes it likely the 2-day bounce from support we anticipated has run its course. And with NZD/USD hitting new cycle lows with a bearish engulfing day and closed beneath its 100/200-day EMAs likely brings 60c into mind for bears, and 65c for AUD/USD bears.
The most important chart in your trading career.Merry Christmas to all, I hope you and yours are well.
My present to you this year is the one chart you should ALL be watching. SPX/GOLD
Risk On (Equities), Risk Off (Gold). It will save you a TON of time/headaches, if you follow this chart.
In this video I go over why you should use it. How your portfolio would have been managed the last 50yr, and at the end give a quick method for managing your ratio between Risk On/Off.
As always, good luck in your trading, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
GBPJPY D1 - Long SignalGBPJPY is flirting between this 185 support price and 188 region, a solid 300 point range, we are hopeful to see a pullback and another opportunity to enter long from this 185 psychological price zone. From here we can look to targets 1R, 3R, 6R respectively.
A lucrative setup, with lots of mileage upside, nothing to say we can't target 190.00.
LIQUIDITY MATTERS! Global liquidity vs #BitcoinLook at how the bullish green arrows and bearish red arrows show how global liquidity correlates HEAVILY with the direction of Bitcoin. T
You don't have to be a genius to see how beautiful this correlation is.
And how sensitive #BTC is to excess capital in the system.
As a risk on asset
When ppl have easy money to gamble with , a portion of that ends up in the #Crypto markets.
Currently you can see how aggressive the withdrawal of liquidity is across the globe
In the USA, EU, China & Japan.
Stocks Are Turning Down After Three Wave Rally US yields are coming higher once again and looks like new high can show up soon, and this is something that is drving the USD higher. Even stocks are coming down this morning, cannot handle the USD strenght anymore so it appears that we ahve some risk-off flows at the moment which can last a few more sessions.
The elliott wave A-B-C rally on SP500, NASDAQ100 and even DAX is not looking good for the bulls.
Grega
just an observation. $SPY vs $IEF / $HYGAppears we are running out of risk appetite. Put also looks like we have built a very nice base for a significant move higher. Hopefully, that's a risk on move, not a risk-off move.
Personally, I believe we have already corrected in each individual sector, it just didn't happen all at once like it normally does.
According to this, risk aversion and sentiment have been flat in a range for the past few months according to IEF/HYG.
📈 The Trailing Stop Loss📍 What Is a Trailing Stop?
A trailing stop is a modification of a typical stop order that can be set at a defined percentage or dollar amount away from a security's current market price. For a long position, an investor places a trailing stop loss below the current market price. For a short position, an investor places the trailing stop above the current market price.
A trailing stop is designed to protect gains by enabling a trade to remain open and continue to profit as long as the price is moving in the investor’s favor. The order closes the trade if the price changes direction by a specified percentage or dollar amount.
📍Important Takeaways
🔹 A trailing stop is an order type designed to lock in profits or limit losses as a trade moves favorably.
🔹 Trailing stops only move if the price moves favorably. Once it moves to lock in a profit or reduce a loss, it does not move back in the other direction.
🔹 A trailing stop is a stop order and has the additional option of being a limit order or a market order.
🔹 One of the most important considerations for a trailing stop order is whether it will be a percentage or fixed-dollar amount and by how much it will trail the price.
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Continuation Wedge (Bullish) | 37% move possibleDirexion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares forms bullish "Continuation Wedge" chart pattern
"Continuation Wedge (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares (WEBS:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $20.30 to the range of $27.00 - $28.50. The pattern formed over 15 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.
Tells Me: After a temporary interruption, the prior uptrend is set to continue.
A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
$AUDJPY Is Falling. [Weekly Analysis]FX_IDC:AUDJPY Has broken a minor ascending channel formed since the corona dip in 2020. The significance of the breakout lies in a rejection occurred when tested an old channel extended since the 90s "1990 and 1995".
Levels of significance:
92.500 "+/-" = Anticipated correction range.
80.500 "+/-" = Anticipated target over the mid-term.
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