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Riskoff

Fundamental Analysis of EURUSDEURUSD is trading in the support area which has been respected by the price action since December of 2022. Similarly, there is an area of resistance. There are two scenarios based on the current geopolitical tension and the policy of the new administration in the US. Scenario#1: Risk OFF or USD depreciates against EUR and other currency pairs The new US administration will take charge in Jan 2025, and by that time if the Scenario#2 has not happened then the EUR should appreciate significantly against USD. The new administration is expected to be business friendly. The US economy should get an ultra-boost because of lower taxes and less regulations. There are many other promises made by the winning party like the increase in import tariffs on all the countries, deportation etc., maybe those promises were to attract voters. We don't know how it will play out, so we go with the simple approach that republican party means less regulation, hence business friendly. Scenario#2: Risk ON or USD appreciates against EUR and other currency pairs This scenario could play out even before the new administration takes charge!!! We don't know if it is a bluff from Russia or a real threat, but the fear of nuclear war can be frightening. Whenever there are major escalations in the world, the USD appreciates and that is as simple as 1 + 1 = 2, right?
by spranav
1
Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction: With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment: Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns. Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds. Analysis: Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities. Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode. What to Watch: Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution. Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance) Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
Bitcoin Breaks Record, Shrugs Off Risk-On Label Gold extended gains for a third consecutive session, crossing $2,650 per ounce, as investors sought safety following an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also performing well and doesn't appear to be acting totally as a risk-on asset in this environment, surging to a fresh record high. President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is reportedly considering a dedicated cryptocurrency policy role within the White House, Bloomberg reported. Adding to Bitcoin's momentum, the Financial Times revealed that Trump Media and Technology Company is in advanced talks to acquire crypto trading platform Bakkt. Bitcoin remains above key technical levels, including the 50- and 100-day EMAs, while the RSI hit overbought territory at 80.
BLACKBULL:BTCUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
safe-haven play :USD vs. NZDIn several of my previous analyses, I mentioned the state of the Forex market due to geopolitical tensions . As a result, we are witnessing an increase in safe-haven currencies like USD compared to riskier currencies such as AUD and NZD. Therefore, by following proper risk management principles, you can open short positions on this currency pair. Additionally, from a technical perspective, after breaking down the ascending channel, the price has formed the first wave of Elliott and, after its correction, has completed the second wave. In the most recent candle, it has entered the third impulsive wave. Target 1: 0.59750 Target 2: 0.58626 Stop Loss: 0.61010
Short
by Market-Analyzer
Lower Technology Sector Pulls Cryptos LowerCryptocurrencies are trading to the downside, and we are seeing some sharp intraday sell-offs, most likely triggered by risk-off flows. As you know, normally when stocks are down, cryptos tend to move in the same direction, especially when there are significant sell-offs in the stock market like we've seen over the last few days, triggered by missed earning reports and lower technology sector. It's not surprising that we are seeing a pullback, which we have been warning about in our past updates. Some of the coins are experiencing very sharp sell-offs and deeper retracements, while other stronger coins are hitting interesting support levels. Even Bitcoin, the most important cryptocurrency, is at a very interesting first area of support. However, looking at the total crypto market cap, there is a sharp one-leg down, suggesting a more complex and deeper ABC retracement before the market may really find new buyers. There is first tecnical strong support around the $2.24 trillion level. Looking at the NASDAQ 100, there seems to be a very strong impulse away from the highs, so toš is in, but we see prices possibly in the 5th wave approaching some support around 19,000. If we get an ABC rally in the near term, that's when cryptos could also stabilize. GH
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ew-forecast
commodities high conviction entry in FebLooking back, commodities had a high conviction in february based on a longterm trend. Combining macd and BB break out. Markets have either risk-on sentiment or defensive. During risk-on phase people want to put money to work, there is too much money. During risk-off or defensive, people want money and safety. Assets become too expensive. Bitcoin rallies during risk-on phases. Oil or gold can be either risk-on and risk-off . Markets are fascinating. Faang can be a risk-on and risk-off, till everything becomes too expensive to have. Markets leave clues. and they move on cycles. It makes sense why commodities are risk-off . Small caps usually are risk-on (when economy does well, there are no global conflicts; ie the future is BRIGHT). More concerns move the weight to risk-off , ie markets are a weighing machine longterm. People tend to be stuck in one mood or another, and it's tough to adjust? markets can change gears quickly.
AMEX:DJP
by citsvar
AUD/USD, NZD/USD hint at a round of risk-offIf commodity FX is anything to go by, we could be in for a bout of risk-off. The yen and US dollar were the strongest majors, which saw AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pull back from cycle highs and form bearish outside days alongside AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The fact that AUD/USD reversed at its 200-day average and closed beneath the 200-day EMA makes it likely the 2-day bounce from support we anticipated has run its course. And with NZD/USD hitting new cycle lows with a bearish engulfing day and closed beneath its 100/200-day EMAs likely brings 60c into mind for bears, and 65c for AUD/USD bears.
Short
by CityIndex
The most important chart in your trading career.Merry Christmas to all, I hope you and yours are well. My present to you this year is the one chart you should ALL be watching. SPX/GOLD Risk On (Equities), Risk Off (Gold). It will save you a TON of time/headaches, if you follow this chart. In this video I go over why you should use it. How your portfolio would have been managed the last 50yr, and at the end give a quick method for managing your ratio between Risk On/Off. As always, good luck in your trading, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
FRED:M2SL
by mrjones2020
6
LIQUIDITY MATTERS! Global liquidity vs #BitcoinLook at how the bullish green arrows and bearish red arrows show how global liquidity correlates HEAVILY with the direction of Bitcoin. T You don't have to be a genius to see how beautiful this correlation is. And how sensitive #BTC is to excess capital in the system. As a risk on asset When ppl have easy money to gamble with , a portion of that ends up in the #Crypto markets. Currently you can see how aggressive the withdrawal of liquidity is across the globe In the USA, EU, China & Japan.
FRED:WALCL
by BallaJi
📈 The Trailing Stop Loss📍 What Is a Trailing Stop? A trailing stop is a modification of a typical stop order that can be set at a defined percentage or dollar amount away from a security's current market price. For a long position, an investor places a trailing stop loss below the current market price. For a short position, an investor places the trailing stop above the current market price. A trailing stop is designed to protect gains by enabling a trade to remain open and continue to profit as long as the price is moving in the investor’s favor. The order closes the trade if the price changes direction by a specified percentage or dollar amount. 📍Important Takeaways 🔹 A trailing stop is an order type designed to lock in profits or limit losses as a trade moves favorably. 🔹 Trailing stops only move if the price moves favorably. Once it moves to lock in a profit or reduce a loss, it does not move back in the other direction. 🔹 A trailing stop is a stop order and has the additional option of being a limit order or a market order. 🔹 One of the most important considerations for a trailing stop order is whether it will be a percentage or fixed-dollar amount and by how much it will trail the price. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
5
Continuation Wedge (Bullish) | 37% move possibleDirexion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares forms bullish "Continuation Wedge" chart pattern "Continuation Wedge (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares (WEBS:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $20.30 to the range of $27.00 - $28.50. The pattern formed over 15 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis. Tells Me: After a temporary interruption, the prior uptrend is set to continue. A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
AMEX:WEBSLong
by moneytalkstome