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Riskoff

Short GBP/JPY Over the weekend, the major news has been centered around Brexit and the situation in the Ukraine / Russia. With May's Divorce deal likely to be rejected by the house in the weeks to come. (This is my primary trade to end 2018) The market is focused on all things brexit. With Russia detaining Ukrainian vessels and injuring Ukrainian servicemen in the Process. The Ukrainian defense Minister has referred to this as an act of war. My Feeling is with the addition of the US / Mexico border Closure there will be slight risk off. I like GBPJPY to be drivin lower through London.
Short
by FX_Trade_Plan
EURJPY (1D): EUR Weakness Not Done?EURJPY Timeframe: 1D Direction: Short Confluences for Trade: - Stochastic Overbought momentum (1D, H4, H1) - Reversed against the Fibo Retracement 50% line - Fundamentally, Italy's budget story has yet to be solved, EU-Italy discussion continues this week; expecting further volatility. In addition to that, higher chance of Democrats taking over the House will add political uncertainty and lead the EURJPY down with this pair normally being a risk off pair. Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 129.45 - 129.90 SL: 130.38 TP: 128.32 RR: Approx. 2.27 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
2
EURJPY (H4): Tensions Brewing for Risk Off PlayEURJPY Timeframe: H4 Direction: Short Confluences for Trade: - Price Action at Resistance of Parallel Channel - Price Action bouncing off 50 EMA line - Stochastics close Overbought momentum - Fundamentally, jittery concerns about EU's disapproval of Italy's budget plan; JPY likely to gain with such issues and adding on Jamal Khashoggi's death creating tension between USA and Saudi. Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 129.55 - 130.23 SL: 130.54 TP: 127.52 RR: Approx. 2.05 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Short
by weekendanalyst
5
USD/JPY - Rising Wedge - Day TradeFundamentally JPY looks extremely strong as usually it counts as a safe haven when the risk-off scenario prevails in the market. Indices falling sharply and my personal view is that there is still room to go down taking into account all of the latest fundamenal developments. Technically, JPY has formed a rising wedge and looks like it is ready to break it in the upcoming hours. As a result for me, it looks like an ideal day-trade with a pretty good RRR of over 2. The idea is to trade the break-down with the SL above the recent high and TP based on the M.P.O. projection. There is a high possibility that the price action will demonstrate an even more severe drop, thus am going to trail the stop after my initial TP level will be reached. The break of the wedge should occur in the next 4-5 hours in order the pattern and the overall trade set-up to be valid. Wish all a great trading day! Check my other ideas, and support me with likes, please.
Short
by CAS_Trading
3
Selling NZDJPY if it gets near trendlineThe yen pairs appear to be moving higher despite an increase in risk to trade in the global markets. Sentiment appears to be holding up, perhaps to do with the good economic data we are receiving at the moment, however, in recent trading days we have had a lot of trade war noise. The US seems to be serious about the next $200bn of tariffs against China and that must have a negative effect. The indices look like they might be turning lower which would normally drag the yen pairs down but that dynamic is not playing out. Should the trade war noise start to turn into some hard facts and data about reduced trade then we can expect to see a more significant fall in the indices and a possible flight to safety that will drag the yen pairs lower and boost assets like Gold. Of all the currencies NZD appears to have the weakest fundamental backing with a dovish central bank, falling export prices (especially dairy) and an export-driven economy that needs good global trade to survive. My preferred option in a risk-off scenario is to sell NZDJPY, the technical situation looks quite strong, we have a clear downward trend with a series of lower lows and lower highs marked by the orange trendline and no real resistance for some time marked by the red line. At the moment NZDJPY is bouncing from a recent low and it appears to be trading out a three wave bounce, the prefered scenario for wave traders as it gives a target for the end of the bounce. In this case, the target is right at the trendline where a turn lower might be expected. The plan is as follows:- If risk sentiment starts to fall away (more trade war talk, indices moving lower, gold moving higher) and the current NZDJPY bounce continues in three waves I will sell it somewhere near the trendline risking 2% of equity hoping for a risk reward of 3:1
Short
by SteveTobin
The Eve of RiskOur Second Idea on Tradingview => Here we are smelling risk off in the coming sessions. =>From a technical perspective we are eyeballing a move back towards the 61.8% from the bottom of the channel we have been trading since April. =>Expecting investors to raise the bid on risk off assets as we have the triple CB combo this week with BOJ, FED and BOE in play. =>We are choosing Gold as the perfect asset class to trade this as we expect some mild profit taking from Dollarbulls =>Gold long @1227| TP1 1260 | TP2 1305 | STP LOSS 1208 =>In the background we also have EZ and US inflation numbers mid week, both expected inline providing further pull factors to Gold =>Good Luck all
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
S&P 500: The showdown of the US government shutdown The Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell is making contingency plans for the growing possibility of a government shutdown ( www.fxstreet.com ). The RSI momentum indicator is starting to show a bearish divergence, after the "S&P 500" had reached my previous long target at 2800 points. Due to the uncertainty regarding the outcome of a government shutdown are signs of weakness visible at the R3 price resistance. To hedge open long-positions I recommend to place a small sized short around here. Short entry: 2798 Stop loss: 2808 1. Target 2768 2. Target: 2708 Risk to SL at 2675: 10 points Reward (1. Target): 30 points Reward (2. Target): 90 points
SP:SPXShort
by ChartArt
Practical Exercise - Market Risk EnvironmentGenerally, the market will either be in a risk-on or a risk-off environment. During uncertain times, the market is considered to be in a risk-off mode where investors prefer to park their money on lower risk investments. During recovery or bullish times, the market is considered to be in a risk-on mode where investors are willing to park their money on higher risk investments. Practical Exercise 1) Using the market risk indicator, identify what is the current market risk environment. 2) List down what are the financial instruments to take note, and the likely impact on them. 3) Post your exercise on the comment section in the thread.
CBOE:VIX
by KarYong
GBPJPY Trading Plans I am still banking on market's risk averse tone towards the U.K due to the Brexit divorce bill & Irish Border issue. I am not sure if the news of multiple attempts on UK PM May's life will weigh down the sterling but the Asian Equities market have been risk averse so far today (it it UK PM May's assasination attempt story or Trump's upcoming announcement of Jerusalem recognition as Israel's capital - risking wrath from several parties.. or a bit of both?), but the uncertaintly over the first issue is enough for me to be bearish bias on the sterling today. Poor Service PMI numbers yesterday on the economic data perspective, added to my conviction. A.1 and A.2 : are the two targets that I am looking the price to test before looking in if my technical parameters are triggered and grant me short the pair towards 150.00. B : If price breaks the A.1/A.2 levels, I would have to re-assess the market's mood at that time if the move was was due to bullish catalyst a bullish Sterling (I will explain it below at "Risks for the trade"). If I couldn't find anything, I will be looking to short from that level and target would be dependent on price strutures at the time. I always look for a trade setup that is minimum 2:1 C : If you deal with this pair, a correction/retracement sometimes hard to come by. If theres any pair that gives you the FOMO effect (Fear of Missing Out), its this pair! If the pair continues to come down and breaks 150.400, I am anticipating it will be halted at 150.00 or the missed pivot levels below that. I would be an observer if the price breaks 150.400. I hate to chase price. The only way I would think of shorting the pair is if it makes a correction/retracement towards A.1 and/or A.2.. but most probably, id make new plans by then.
Short
by sufiansaid
Trading Plan GBPJPY - Brexit No Deal Aftermath TradeThe rationale for this trade is pretty straightforward : The headline of no deal was made yesterday and more political uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom. No monetary policy issues is in focus right now to help the sterling at the moment as well (today). Equities market in Asian session is a bit in a selloff (Risk Off Tone) gives slight safe haven inflow (Yen Demand). Risk for the trade (yes there's always risk. I have no crystal ball as others as well.. so stupid saying "it will this.. it will that.. it will go up.. it will go down.. very bad mindset to have as a trader") 1. New development on the brexit deal 2. Yen sell-off from a Risk-ON (whatever cause it might be)
Short
by sufiansaid
USDJPY SHORT TARGET 110.00Look, its hard to recommend shorting something which you are long-term bullish. But given the current geopolitical situation happening around (I'm talking about the ousting of royals in Saudi Arabia over the weekend) and Kuroda's affirmation that there will not be any stimulus coming, we can expect the pair to move down lower. Do also note that the pair is also a proxy for safe-haven assets, the markets may be looking at protecting their portfolio against any selloff. The reason I'm saying this is because the equities market are probably overpriced and due for a correction. I am personally short in a couple of cyclical stocks, while long in safe haven assets. Going onto technicals, we can see that the pair has hit a downtrend line. It has also been moving up sideways since October, signalling a weakened rally. We are also able to locate significant resistance 114.30-50, based on price action in May and July 2017. With this, I am able to justify a short on the pair, with a final target at around 110.20. I would take some profit as the pair moves down, but expect myself to be out by 110.20. Cheers guys, happy trading. Follow me on www.houtiantan.com I trade with bit.ly/AxiFXSG
Short
by HouTianTan
North Korea - Risk Off trade over weekendTomorrow is North Korea national day and whether or not they will launch another missile is unknown (and if they do Trump will do something just about as stupid). I'm betting there will be some retreat to Risk off asset such as the JPY. The tricky thing is which pair to pick. I've already had exposure to NZD short and CAD long. My rationale is if there is something wrong with the world, real asset or safe haven asset appreciate, this applies to NZD, AUD, CAD and JPY, not so much for the fiat currencies of EUR or USD. The ECB and Fed are quite Dovish in my opinion, I really can't figure out who's more determined than whom yet though. My plan is to split the bet into Short EURJPY and USDJPY at the same time. EUR has no major news next week why USD has CPI on Wednesday so I may not be able to hold that part as far. On the retail sentiment, JPY is being sold and I can't be more happy to go Long.
Short
by vietbach1990
USDJPY - Risk Off Pure Play Trade (Missed Opportunity)There is not much news coming out of JPY so I kind of ignore the currency coming into the week. However early Monday, with the Korea missile launch I knew JPY should be bought but did not take much action. In this case, the best risk-off play is to pair JPY with a risk currency that is expected to be weak (in this case USD as AUD, CAD, EUR is expected to have major news in the week, NZD is similar neutral). Technical levels pulled back near to 110 for USDJPY was obvious and the risk-reward very good. Of course over the course of the week USD became even weaker with 3 Fed members spoke dovishly, I could have had a free run toward the Pivot of 1.0927. Also the sudden dovish talk starting by Brainard was somewhat surprise in my opinion as she was Neutral in her previous speech, provides us with another entry as price even pulled back after the 109.27 level. USDJPY continue to weaken toward the next Pivot of 108.7 and only to pause as "buy the fact" unfolding after Kashkari and Kaplan's speech.
by vietbach1990
EURGBP: Is Parity InevitableEURGBP Daily – Is Parity Inevitable? Earlier today the Euro broke the psychological $1.200 handle for the first time in 2 years whilst and it is now heading towards an all time high against the British Pound. At the start of the year, analysts had predicted further weakening for the Euro. We are now at the end of August and those predictions could not have been more wrong with the Euro rallying strongly. Despite being overvalued by most indicators, the Euro has continued to strengthen and this is expected to carry on. One of the biggest reasons for this is that the common currency is increasing its appeal to investors and traders as a safe haven. When analysts talk about safe haven currencies, they are usually referring to the US Dollar, Japanese Yen or the Swiss Franc. However, over the past months, demand for the dollar and yen during risk off sentiments have been lower than usual. For the Dollar, this is due to political uncertainty and the conflict with North Korea. Meanwhile, with the Yen, it is due to the risk from North Korea. As we saw yesterday, a missile fired into the Pacific Ocean by North Korea, flew within Japanese airspace, prompting, Japanese official to warn residents who could have been affected. The majority of global risk has been from the two factors mentioned here, which means that the most attractive safe haven currency left would be the Swiss Franc. However, the current stability in Europe and anticipation of the ECB winding down its large QE programme, has made the Euro a great currency for both investors and traders. The Euro strength has been mentioned as a concern by the ECB but they have not indicated plans to take any action just yet. Now that EURUSD has broken above, $1.200, traders should expect an ECB official to address this in the coming days but it is still unlikely for them to intervene. The CFTC commitment of traders reports last week also showed an increase in net long positions on the Euro, also suggesting that the rally is set to continue. However, analysts have mentioned that the Euro strength will weigh down on European companies as it becomes more expensive to import from the Eurozone, with the DAX dropping to 5 month lows yesterday. In the UK, the biggest fundamental factor continue to be Brexit but a lack of progress in talks has actually helped the pound to strengthen. The EUs Juckner is not happy with the position papers handed to the EU from the UK government. UK officials are complaining that the EU are simply being stubborn and currently negotiations look as if they are at a stalemate. The United Kingdom would like the EU to be more flexible and talk about their future relationship, whilst at the same time talking about the separation process. However, the EU are adamant that they will not talk about any future relationship until the terms of their divorce with the UK are resolved. It seems that the biggest hurdle in all of this is the agreement on how much the settlement bill should be, with Brexit secretary Davis saying that the UK will only pay what it is legally obliged to. The current situation is helping to support the pound at the moment but with the BoE not showing any signs of hawkishness, it is highly likely that any appreciation in the Pound is simply a retracement. Today, EURGBP has broken its 2016 high and we now expect it to reach its all time high at around 0.9800. Following this, Brexit makes it seem inevitable that this pair will reach parity but it will also depend on how long it takes to reach these levels and what impact the Euro strength is having on the Eurozone economy. We will be looking for buys on this pair, ideally after some sort of retracement. However, if we do not get a retracement, we will still looking to enter a smaller position and add on to this along the way.
Long
by priyesh
AUDJPY - Elliot Wave AttemptI am reading a book on Elliot Wave and am trying my hand at it. So we have the formation of a wave 1 that I drew a Fibonacci retracement on. The wave 1 has ended and appears to be in a triangle corrective formation that is reaching a point. By my analysis the wave should then break down into a 3 wave that is of more or less the same length as wave 1. The red line shows the length on wave one and is used to predict the end result of wave 3. Given the amount of pips this is expected to move this is probably more of a swing trade than a day trade. This trade is also in line with the fundamentals. JPY has been strong lately because of the geopolitical events that have been occurring lately. N. Korea and Donald Trump have been throwing Insults at each other all this has done is make people antsy and strengthen JPY. AUD has been weak lately precisely because there is a risk-off sentiment. We'll see what happens.....
Short
by basquefxb1