Get started

Riskoff

GBPJPY Trading Plans I am still banking on market's risk averse tone towards the U.K due to the Brexit divorce bill & Irish Border issue. I am not sure if the news of multiple attempts on UK PM May's life will weigh down the sterling but the Asian Equities market have been risk averse so far today (it it UK PM May's assasination attempt story or Trump's upcoming announcement of Jerusalem recognition as Israel's capital - risking wrath from several parties.. or a bit of both?), but the uncertaintly over the first issue is enough for me to be bearish bias on the sterling today. Poor Service PMI numbers yesterday on the economic data perspective, added to my conviction. A.1 and A.2 : are the two targets that I am looking the price to test before looking in if my technical parameters are triggered and grant me short the pair towards 150.00. B : If price breaks the A.1/A.2 levels, I would have to re-assess the market's mood at that time if the move was was due to bullish catalyst a bullish Sterling (I will explain it below at "Risks for the trade"). If I couldn't find anything, I will be looking to short from that level and target would be dependent on price strutures at the time. I always look for a trade setup that is minimum 2:1 C : If you deal with this pair, a correction/retracement sometimes hard to come by. If theres any pair that gives you the FOMO effect (Fear of Missing Out), its this pair! If the pair continues to come down and breaks 150.400, I am anticipating it will be halted at 150.00 or the missed pivot levels below that. I would be an observer if the price breaks 150.400. I hate to chase price. The only way I would think of shorting the pair is if it makes a correction/retracement towards A.1 and/or A.2.. but most probably, id make new plans by then.
Short
by sufiansaid
Trading Plan GBPJPY - Brexit No Deal Aftermath TradeThe rationale for this trade is pretty straightforward : The headline of no deal was made yesterday and more political uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom. No monetary policy issues is in focus right now to help the sterling at the moment as well (today). Equities market in Asian session is a bit in a selloff (Risk Off Tone) gives slight safe haven inflow (Yen Demand). Risk for the trade (yes there's always risk. I have no crystal ball as others as well.. so stupid saying "it will this.. it will that.. it will go up.. it will go down.. very bad mindset to have as a trader") 1. New development on the brexit deal 2. Yen sell-off from a Risk-ON (whatever cause it might be)
Short
by sufiansaid
USDJPY SHORT TARGET 110.00Look, its hard to recommend shorting something which you are long-term bullish. But given the current geopolitical situation happening around (I'm talking about the ousting of royals in Saudi Arabia over the weekend) and Kuroda's affirmation that there will not be any stimulus coming, we can expect the pair to move down lower. Do also note that the pair is also a proxy for safe-haven assets, the markets may be looking at protecting their portfolio against any selloff. The reason I'm saying this is because the equities market are probably overpriced and due for a correction. I am personally short in a couple of cyclical stocks, while long in safe haven assets. Going onto technicals, we can see that the pair has hit a downtrend line. It has also been moving up sideways since October, signalling a weakened rally. We are also able to locate significant resistance 114.30-50, based on price action in May and July 2017. With this, I am able to justify a short on the pair, with a final target at around 110.20. I would take some profit as the pair moves down, but expect myself to be out by 110.20. Cheers guys, happy trading. Follow me on www.houtiantan.com I trade with bit.ly/AxiFXSG
Short
by HouTianTan
North Korea - Risk Off trade over weekendTomorrow is North Korea national day and whether or not they will launch another missile is unknown (and if they do Trump will do something just about as stupid). I'm betting there will be some retreat to Risk off asset such as the JPY. The tricky thing is which pair to pick. I've already had exposure to NZD short and CAD long. My rationale is if there is something wrong with the world, real asset or safe haven asset appreciate, this applies to NZD, AUD, CAD and JPY, not so much for the fiat currencies of EUR or USD. The ECB and Fed are quite Dovish in my opinion, I really can't figure out who's more determined than whom yet though. My plan is to split the bet into Short EURJPY and USDJPY at the same time. EUR has no major news next week why USD has CPI on Wednesday so I may not be able to hold that part as far. On the retail sentiment, JPY is being sold and I can't be more happy to go Long.
Short
by vietbach1990
USDJPY - Risk Off Pure Play Trade (Missed Opportunity)There is not much news coming out of JPY so I kind of ignore the currency coming into the week. However early Monday, with the Korea missile launch I knew JPY should be bought but did not take much action. In this case, the best risk-off play is to pair JPY with a risk currency that is expected to be weak (in this case USD as AUD, CAD, EUR is expected to have major news in the week, NZD is similar neutral). Technical levels pulled back near to 110 for USDJPY was obvious and the risk-reward very good. Of course over the course of the week USD became even weaker with 3 Fed members spoke dovishly, I could have had a free run toward the Pivot of 1.0927. Also the sudden dovish talk starting by Brainard was somewhat surprise in my opinion as she was Neutral in her previous speech, provides us with another entry as price even pulled back after the 109.27 level. USDJPY continue to weaken toward the next Pivot of 108.7 and only to pause as "buy the fact" unfolding after Kashkari and Kaplan's speech.
by vietbach1990
EURGBP: Is Parity InevitableEURGBP Daily – Is Parity Inevitable? Earlier today the Euro broke the psychological $1.200 handle for the first time in 2 years whilst and it is now heading towards an all time high against the British Pound. At the start of the year, analysts had predicted further weakening for the Euro. We are now at the end of August and those predictions could not have been more wrong with the Euro rallying strongly. Despite being overvalued by most indicators, the Euro has continued to strengthen and this is expected to carry on. One of the biggest reasons for this is that the common currency is increasing its appeal to investors and traders as a safe haven. When analysts talk about safe haven currencies, they are usually referring to the US Dollar, Japanese Yen or the Swiss Franc. However, over the past months, demand for the dollar and yen during risk off sentiments have been lower than usual. For the Dollar, this is due to political uncertainty and the conflict with North Korea. Meanwhile, with the Yen, it is due to the risk from North Korea. As we saw yesterday, a missile fired into the Pacific Ocean by North Korea, flew within Japanese airspace, prompting, Japanese official to warn residents who could have been affected. The majority of global risk has been from the two factors mentioned here, which means that the most attractive safe haven currency left would be the Swiss Franc. However, the current stability in Europe and anticipation of the ECB winding down its large QE programme, has made the Euro a great currency for both investors and traders. The Euro strength has been mentioned as a concern by the ECB but they have not indicated plans to take any action just yet. Now that EURUSD has broken above, $1.200, traders should expect an ECB official to address this in the coming days but it is still unlikely for them to intervene. The CFTC commitment of traders reports last week also showed an increase in net long positions on the Euro, also suggesting that the rally is set to continue. However, analysts have mentioned that the Euro strength will weigh down on European companies as it becomes more expensive to import from the Eurozone, with the DAX dropping to 5 month lows yesterday. In the UK, the biggest fundamental factor continue to be Brexit but a lack of progress in talks has actually helped the pound to strengthen. The EUs Juckner is not happy with the position papers handed to the EU from the UK government. UK officials are complaining that the EU are simply being stubborn and currently negotiations look as if they are at a stalemate. The United Kingdom would like the EU to be more flexible and talk about their future relationship, whilst at the same time talking about the separation process. However, the EU are adamant that they will not talk about any future relationship until the terms of their divorce with the UK are resolved. It seems that the biggest hurdle in all of this is the agreement on how much the settlement bill should be, with Brexit secretary Davis saying that the UK will only pay what it is legally obliged to. The current situation is helping to support the pound at the moment but with the BoE not showing any signs of hawkishness, it is highly likely that any appreciation in the Pound is simply a retracement. Today, EURGBP has broken its 2016 high and we now expect it to reach its all time high at around 0.9800. Following this, Brexit makes it seem inevitable that this pair will reach parity but it will also depend on how long it takes to reach these levels and what impact the Euro strength is having on the Eurozone economy. We will be looking for buys on this pair, ideally after some sort of retracement. However, if we do not get a retracement, we will still looking to enter a smaller position and add on to this along the way.
Long
by priyesh
AUDJPY - Elliot Wave AttemptI am reading a book on Elliot Wave and am trying my hand at it. So we have the formation of a wave 1 that I drew a Fibonacci retracement on. The wave 1 has ended and appears to be in a triangle corrective formation that is reaching a point. By my analysis the wave should then break down into a 3 wave that is of more or less the same length as wave 1. The red line shows the length on wave one and is used to predict the end result of wave 3. Given the amount of pips this is expected to move this is probably more of a swing trade than a day trade. This trade is also in line with the fundamentals. JPY has been strong lately because of the geopolitical events that have been occurring lately. N. Korea and Donald Trump have been throwing Insults at each other all this has done is make people antsy and strengthen JPY. AUD has been weak lately precisely because there is a risk-off sentiment. We'll see what happens.....
Short
by basquefxb1
USDJPY Weakness Technical/Fundamental PlayMentioned in the previous post, there was an inherent weakness in the dollar-yen due to its price action around 113.22. While the pair rallied up to 113.35 prior to Asia opening, a huge wave of sell orders sent the pair tumbling. While we saw a potential short opportunity last evening (Singapore Time) on technical basis, the confirmation of North Korea's ICBM by US this morning has supported our technical views as traders remain weary of any military confrontation between the US and North Korea. For that, we remain bearish with a target of 112.40 in mind.
Short
by HouTianTan
USDJPY Epic Descending Triangle Breakdown ImminentOANDA:USDJPY has consolidated for a few days already and failed to retake the 112 level. With a series of lower highs, the supply resistance level is slowly going down to meet with the Weekly 200MA support. Its possible it might find support at the Daily 200MA level as it was able bounce off it from the previous downleg. In my opinion it might still test the 111 level one more time before the support finally breaks. Entry: 111.044 Profit: 108.215 Stop: 111.325 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Short
by SimpleMillennialAverage
2
USDJPY Between 200MAs and a broken channel April 17-21OANDA:USDJPY just had a breakdown not only breaking the weekly 200MA but also the lower support channel but nothing goes in one direction in the markets so I expect a pullback before another move downwards. The price is currently between the daily and weekly 200MA so I expect sideways action with a slight bullish bias in the short term. It will be Daily Fibonacci: OANDA:USDJPY bounced right at the 50% mark at 108.11 so bulls should have a relief bounce for a few days. 4H Timeframe view: Unless news or events comes that will cause the risk off to end or strengthen the dollar I expect consolidation between the daily 200MA support and the broken lower channel that should act as resistance. Its also possible that there might be a spike upwards till the weekly 200MA but I dont expect it to break as there should be a lot of overhead resistance on that area. I still expect OANDA:USDJPY in the long term especially with its correlations have broken their respective supports reinforcing the trend. Nikkei Daily: US 10-Year Daily: Entry: 109.4-110 Stop: 110.6 Profit: 101-103 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Short
by SimpleMillennialAverage
Short term risk off move starting?I think we'll see some kind of retracement in the massive trends we had in place accross the board. Overall, I'm looking to buy weakness in the dollar in the long term, and looking for good value stocks, shorting overvalued stocks if needed, but rarely, and navigating the main trends in commodities. Metals look poised to rally with bonds here, at least in the short term, so having some exposure there might be a good idea. Either that, or hedging your equity exposure for the time being. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2