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Riskoff

Bonds Test Higher LevelsBonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able to break out further, then we have a fairly wide vacuum zone to the next level and target at 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
NZD/USD - BUY SET UP AS INTEREST RATES IN NEW ZEALAND RISE We are highly likely to see a strong recovery in the New Zealand Dollar Against the U.S Dollar as interest rates in New Zealand continue to rise. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate to 3.50% by year-end, which will be a premium 0.75% to 1.00% Interest rate over the U.S. This means any investors holding short positions in NZD/USD will lose money holding the position open overnight. The U.S Dollar has been strong in recent weeks as stock markets have fallen due to the Federal Reserves' commitment to raising interest rates aggressively to contain inflation running at 8.30%. When stock markets fall globally, investors historically sell international currencies and flood into the safety of the U.S Dollar, as its the worlds reserve currency. However, when stocks recover as they always do, investors will quickly sell dollars and move back into international currencies as they invest globally in equities again, causing the dollar to weaken in exchange rates and push up NZD/USD.
Long
by KayansMarkets
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Today we will talk about RISK ON vs RISK OFF Market Sentiment as i use this confluence to enter trades. ✅ Risk ON vs Risk OFF market sentiment reflects all the market activity its not a market sentiment for crypto or forex or stock market its for all the financial markets, when i use this confluence i try to understand what are institutional/retail investors are doing the are buying risk on assets or they are buying risk on assets. ✅ Usually investors buy risk on assets when they are looking for risk meaning they want higher yield on their investment they want to MULTIPLY money(key word) this is happening during times of financial prosperity, no wars, no lockdowns, no problems around the world everyone are doing great and making money on viceversa risk off is when investors tend to buy financil assets that PROTECT (key word) their capital they dont want a high yield they want just to save their money and protect during time of financial stress, wars, lockdowns when everything is not clear and safe.
Education
by Snick3rSD
Move up exhaustedAUDUSD being one of the key risk on pairs, got very close to 0.73 which served already as resistance in January looks to be a likely turning point and return to strong sell off on Risk on assets (crypto and equities). DXY also breaking above recent levels continuing over a year long move from lows ahead of J Powell's speech later on today and ADP/NFP numbers this week. While it is hard to predict exact further impact from Ukraine conflict the most likely two scenarios are as presented, ranging between 0.7 - 0.73 or eventual break below 0.7. For those trading FX this is a good area for a safe Short trade.
Short
by gigisulivan
1
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. When risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments. RISK ON - is when investor are looking to multiply their money, they are looking for RISK. MORE RISK - MORE MONEY RISK OFF - is when investors are looking to keep/save their money, they are looking to protect more than to RISK. MORE PROTECTION - LESS MONEY
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
Bitcoin Bear Market ScenarioFollowing macroeconomic environment, with inflation reporting this week followed by upcoming central bank FOMC meeting in early may (rate hikes & balance sheet reductions)... the following high-level SR zones are key levels to watch. Assuming broader markets are going to experience a significant correction as the Fed loses ability to leverage QE & stimulus in propping up markets without hyperinflation risk, BTC as a risk-on asset will face significant headwinds. Without a changing economic environment, the markets will continue to realize bearish sentiment with more speculative assets (tech stonks & "digital asset technologies") realizing the most severe of pullbacks. FOMC in early May will attempt to reign inflation in, while June's FOMC meeting will include a more nuanced summary of economic projections given assessment of Q1 results as well as Q2 winding down.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by R0MM3LL
3
Gold targets 1910 dollars per ounceSupported by the news that Russia and Ukraine have held their fourth round of talks. Markets are taking a breather to retrace some of the risk-off movements that took place last week. After breaking below the key support level of 1950 dollars, gold has been gaining more bearish momentum. When looking for the next support and resistance levels, focus on the 1910-dollar cluster, which marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement as well as the support of a previously broken resistance high.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MohannadYakout
HOT INFLATION DRIVING USDJPY CRAZY!With inflation running at decades high, USDJPY has been gaining a lot of momentum in the past few weeks driven by the FED's outlook on hiking rates. With the WAR between Russia & Ukraine contributing hugely to the already spiking inflation across the globe, the FED would probably be inclined to tame this by raising interest rates. But what is the FED's latest thinking and outlook would likely be known this week. With that said, both USD & JPY are safehaven currencies! With the development that's going on currently, the fundamentals are in favor of the USD here as the inflation fears is driving up the value of the greenback. Here on the main monthly chart, we can clearly see the price might meet a strong multi-month descending trendline resistance located at 118.500 area. From here onwards its in the FED hands directly as to what they plan to do to tame this hot inflation. Shall the FED decides to hike rates this year numerous times then we can expect this resistance to clear easily and the price can head towards the 120.000 psychological resistance with ease in the coming weeks and possibly higher in the future. On the other hand if the FED does not deliver, this resistance might hold and the prices might start heading lower. All in all this week might set the course as to where this pair might be headed in the future. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on major currencies pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Safe Haven Inflows Still Lifting Gold (For Now)Ukraine woes still weigh on global markets and although gold has retraced significantly, it is still hanging onto the high 1900's. Positive news is incoming as we compose this thread including Putin acknowledging "positive undertones" in Ukraine talks . We have given up the 2000's after touching highs at 2070. After finding support at 1982, we appear to be making a run for 2000 again, currently testing 1999 and hovering about 1995 or so at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is drifting downwards, suggesting a slight bear bias, but we have a lot of support levels below to buoy the price, including 1982, 1977, 1973, and 1964. It is doubtful we will slice through all of these, but watch the vacuum zone below to 1936. If we get a lift, then 2029, 2048, and 2070 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1
Bonds Test LowsBonds have smashed through relative lows in the mid 126's to find support at 126'00 which appears to be a technical and psychological level. We have added this as a technical level on the chart. ZN has been on a clear decline falling 3 handles from the 129's to the base of the 126's. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting we may find support here, or at least that the selloff may ease up. If not, the next target is 125'17. We do appear to be severely oversold and if we see a technical retracement into the bear trend we must break 126'11, where we are currently meeting resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. After that, 126'19 and 126'28 are targets.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
EURGBP: Any Impulse Move Would Meet Stern Resistance! EURGBP faces multiple upside resistance. The descending long term channel is still holding strong and any impulse up-move would likely be met with stern resistance. Fundamentally the EURO is under enormous pressure as well. Looking at the main weekly chart, we could clearly see that the major support break has already taken place that was held on multiple occasions in the past. This support break could guide the prices to the next available low, located at the 0.80000 psychological level. The descending channel might just help to guide the price to 0.8000. Ideally the stop loss should be placed above this channel, preferably above 0.85000 psychological level. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on major currency pairs.
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDCAD: 1.29400 An Ideal Target Shall 1.28170 Is Broken!With OIL gaining traction everyday since the conflict began, the commodity linked/ OIL linked CAD has been seesawing against the in demand SAFEHAVEN USD. Based on the daily technical picture, we can see this statement backed by rising strong ascending trendline on our main chart. USDCAD now would likely take a dig at its next target located at 1.29400. However before this happens, the daily candle must first close above 1.28170. This close would give us conformation that indeed the resistance has been broken and the price is ready to head higher. Once this breakout is confirmed, a LONG trade can be executed based on ideal risk to reward ratio. With ideal RR being not less than 1, it would be advisable to wait for price to retrace and then execute this trade. The main chart would provide these details in deep as you observe it. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful. FOLLOW & LIKE for more insights on major currencies pairs
Long
by FX618Analysis
USDCHF: Greenback Demand Could Finally Break The Range!This market has been ranging for quite some time now, even the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine did not have much impact on this pair!. The reason being simple enough, they are both safehaven currencies and in risk off markets they are both in demand. However, since Switzerland is in EUROPE, the conflict would likely increase the demand for the USD more compared to the CHF. However saying that does not mean we should LONG the USD here, technical analysis should always be performed to increase the trade probability and quality. Looking at the main weekly chart on USDCHF, everything is self explanatory based on technical perspective. The main point here is we have to wait for the weekly candle to close outside the upper range to confirm this breakout. After this a LONG trade can be evaluated based on the risk to reward ratio. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful. Please LIKE and FOLLOW for more insights on other major currency pairs
Long
by FX618Analysis
AUDUSD: Await Retrace Before Going LONG! 0.75000 The TargetWith weekly candle breaking out from the descending channel, the price is ready to target the next high at 0.75000. The price also formed good support at 0.70000 area with RSI indicating a bullish divergence! With that all said, it is advisable to wait for the price to retrace at the desired level and then execute a LONG trade. Trade can be invalidated if 0.75000 is HIT first. To get a clear picture have a look at the main chart. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
EURGBP: More Pain Ahead For The EURO ? With Risk OFF mood especially hitting both EUR & GBP hard, it is well known that the common shared currency EUR has more painful future compared to the GBP! Here we look at the weekly chart that might support our view on this. First and most important step would be for the weekly candle to close below 0.82900 major support. By doing so, it would ensure a major long term support break and thus opening door to the next support that lies at 0.8000 region. After the break is confirmed, a short trade can be evaluated based on the risk to reward and executed. CHEERS
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
UPTREND RESUMPTION: USDJPY LIKELY TO BREAKOUT FROM CONSOLIDATIONSince COVID-19 crisis eased around the globe from last year, we have seen a RISK ON mood in the markets thus propelling USDJPY to its recent highs! However at the moment the crisis between Russia and Ukraine has given this pair an excuse not to go higher. The safehaven status of the JPY is preventing this pair from heading higher and therefore we can assume its just consolidating at the moment. With both USD & JPY being SAFEHAVENS in this scenario, we can expect the USD to win here. The reason being the FED is continuing to hike interest rates and inflation is at all time high. The tightening OIL supply also would just add to the inflation woe, thus putting pressure on FED to keep track on raising rates. SIMPLY ON TODAY'S TERMS, THE INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN THESE TWO SAFEHAVEN PAIRS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE USDJPY TO BREAKOUT AND HEAD TOWARDS THE LIKELY LONG TERM TARGET OF 118.000 LEVEL CHEERS
Long
by FX618Analysis
A pullback before the next drop! The target of 1,1160 was completed and price went even lower. It's time for the next one! Before that though, we should wait for the pullback which could reach the levels around 1,1290. We could look for a possible reversal there and use that as our entry. This is totally possible to happen in the beginning of next week, which means that during today we should see the pullback and therefore we shouldn't rush to enter any trades. Everyone who has made some profit this week should now reduce their lot size and maybe even withdraw some profits before continuing! We're looking for another entry with targets below 1,1110!
Short
by ForexTrendline
23
RISK OFF Markets Could Make EURCHF HIT PARITY!With the RUSSIAN-UKRAINE crisis developing day by day, the markets are quite worried and thus are in the RISK OFF mood. All the safehaven currencies would likely appreciate in the coming weeks against the EURO. However the most sensitive EURO pair in this scenario would be the EURCHF. The crisis would likely make CHF appreciate more and more in the coming days/weeks. Even if the SNB tries to intervene to support its currency, we could still see the sellers winning! TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PARITY is the real target here for EURCHF! For this to happen, we need the weekly candle to break the 1.02500 mark, after that a SHORT trade can be taken based on the appropriate 1:1 risk to reward ratio. The descending monthly trendline or 1.05000 would ideally likely act as dynamic/ horizontal resistance respectively to guide the price to parity
Short
by FX618Analysis