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Riskoff

EURCHF SHORT OPPORTUNITY ON DOVISH ECB & TECHNICAL CONFIRMATIONSentiment/Fundamental insight: German Producer Prices Rise 24.2% Y/Y Strongest YoY Increase Since The Survey Began In 1949 ECB’s Lagarde: No Reasons For Us To Act In The Same Way As The U.S. Federal Reserve ECB’s De Cos: No Interest Rate Increase Expected In 2022 | Speaking on Spanish TV Risk-off market will keep CHF as save heaven currency strong We are still hold very bearish bias on all Euro pairs.
Short
by TradingCocktail
2
AUDUSD: Be Cautious Going Short! Multiple Resistance In The WayBearish RSI divergence on 4H charts. Is the price loosing momentum? is there consolidation ahead? Well, we should NOT expect the price to HIT 0.7000 straight away if the ascending 4H trendline breaks! The reason being simple, THERE ARE MULTIPLE RESISTANCE PRESENT IN THE WAY UNTIL WE REACH 0.70000 LEVEL! Just observe the chart and you would notice these obstacles. To trade this opportunity with extreme caution, it is advisable to break and trade. Focus on each individual level breach and trade accordingly. There is a risk that the price might reverse from any of these levels should the trader decide to take profit in one go at 0.7000. So breaking and trading on each individual level breach might be the best action a trader could execute in such conditions. Just observe the chart, no further explanations is needed here for now. Cheer, I hope you found this insight helpful & Happy Holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
BTC short-medium term Bearish trackingBINANCEUS:BTCUSD # Note: This is not financial advice, nor am I a financial advisor Looking at some broad market conditions: * Unwinding risk at EOY to close out gains at funds * Massively over-valued market run for equities and crypto * High levels of leverage across markets (dipping from crypto to equities and equities to crypto) * Covid uncertainty * Fed tapering * Fed announcement of rate increases 3x in 2022 * Higher Volatility * Failing to create a new higher high and a double-top back in Nov. * Risk in Chinese real-estate markets (usually summated by "Evergrande" story...the Countrywide of 2021) * Hedge Fund closures * Risk to supply chain causing ripple effects to markets * Inflation (ie. massive increases in money supply, which is loaned out at stupidly low rates) * Continued and increased guidance around risk and leverage to institutional investors Long positions in crypto started to take off right around the trough of the 2020 pandemic shutdown. As we've continued through the pandemic, broad markets have continued to go up in value along with PE multiples, inflation, and more recently volatility is at all time highs, along with all the major indexes. Since mid November, we've been seeing weakening buying power at the levels we're at. Investors and Funds, both, are trying to either reposition for a crash or they're trying to get out of positions to shore up P/L by End of Year (either to meet commitments to investors, set up the ideal tax scenarios, or wanting to offset losses on bad short positions). BTC can be seen as more or less the index/guideline of the broader crypto markets as it has the largest valuation and marketcap of other coins AND most coins tend to directly follow movements of BTC. In the short term, it looks like there's sell pressure right around current levels, but a sustained increase above the resistance line (ie. close above the line and confirm the next candle above the line as breakout, there are additional upside risks ($50k barrier again, most of the SMAs aside from the 200-day SMA, which is offering support right now), and being below the Ichimoku cloud). Also, we're trading in a bearish channel right now, which further supports the thesis that downside risk continues. There is a lot of money from Wall Street being used to extend positions and make some quick cash to fill margin accounts, but it appears that the buying has worn off for a while. As they unwind positions and try to reduce their risk exposure with the traditionally crazy end of year cycle that funds work on (they get paid on Dec. 31 of each year), we're going to see continued decline through December, with maybe another upside rally before EOY, but should still fail to exceed significant resistance barriers. The key level to watch will be $50k, which is a key psychological barrier, along with other broad market indicators (inflation, QE, covid, interest rates, etc.). Targets: $45k next significant support $38k-40k if above support fails $30k if the call continues below the 38k buy zone ~$20k if the 30k zone doesn't hold everything off I'm not short on BTC, but I'm looking to average in to BTC starting around $30k. If I had a net long position of BTC or WBTC (on an ETH blockchain), I would be taking up a small short position to play the swing down right now. I am doing this with ETH, however, but the price levels are different and that is a different position to discuss.
BShort
by khrystoph
USDJPY UNLIKELY TO BREAK 112.000 BARRIER! Here is WHYA very interesting pair to trade during this ongoing pandemic, certainly USDJPY has caught the eye of many traders as both currencies acting as SAFEHAVEN. However in RISKOFF mood, the advantage certainly lies with the JPY, as the SAFEHAVEN status makes it appreciate against various counterparts such as the AUD, NZD, CAD, EURO, GBP. In the case of USD and CHF, the JPY has a bit of tussle appreciating since all are considered SAFEHAVEN assets. Looking at the bigger picture, in the RISK OFF markets the JPY certainly appreciates against the USD. For example since the pandemic began, we saw the JPY strengthen against the USD and fall to levels low as much as 105.000 In the RISKON markets, there is no doubt that the JPY weakens against various counterparts, but mostly against the USD. For example, when the global population started being vaccinated slowly, the signs of recovery in the USDJPY was quite evident, as the pair inched closer to 116.000 from lows of 105.000. A QUITE BIG RISE compared to other currencies paired with JPY. CURRENT MARKET MOOD: SEEMS TO BE RISKOFF AND RISKON. BUT PARTICULARY SKEWED TOWARDS THE RISKOFF AS THE OMICRON FEARS GATHER PACE Its festive season and the spread of the new variant would likely make the cases skyrocket, however as many are already vaccinated and boosters shots being administered, we should NOT expect much panic such as the one that was caused by the DELTA variant!. There are other several reasons behind to support this statement HERD IMMUNITY: since the pandemic began and up until now, the whole population has likely already achieved natural immunity and/or acquired immunity. Even as the new variant arise, our immune system are already equipped to fight off the virus DEATHS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW: comparing the fatality that delta variant was causing, so far if you observe the number of new omicron cases, the fatality is very very low. This is because of the HERD immunity. COVID 19 IS HERE TO STAY: Just like the COMMON COLD, COVID19 is here to stay with us. as it mutates and our immune system has also been equipped to fight off new strains. the COMMON COLD and COVID 19 are both classed from the same family of CORONAVIRUS. therefore the world is learning to deal and learn how to live with COVID 19. THE WORLD WANTS TO RETURN TO NORMAL: People are tired of lockdowns and as per the above point, are willing to live with the virus. be it using vaccines more often or just their natural immunity function. As such major financial banks are already predicting the economic recovery in 2022 and beyond GETTING TO THE POINT Current market mood is mixed, that is why it could be seen that USDJPY is ranging after falling sharply on the news that south Africa has detected a new variant. There is no doubt that this festive season would make the new cases sky rocket, however as looking at all the above points, mainly the vaccines and immunity, we can expect the fatality rate to be much much lower compared to the havoc that DELTA variant caused. Looking at the main chart, the festive season would likely cause the USDJPY price to HIT 112.000 or 113.000 area which is the lower end of the channel as the markets panic and enter the RISKOFF MOOD. But as usual the HERD IMMUNITY AND VACCINES BOOSTER ROLEOUT, would make this less threatening and markets might finally realize this and enter in RISKON mood. This would make the USDJPY price rise and possibly HIT 118.000 in 2022. However the covid 19 is highly unlikely to cause markets to enter in a long term RISKOFF mood, therefore we should expect this channel to hold and guide this pair steadily towards the 118.000 mark in 2022. In short this pandemic has caused the markets to be so cautious, however looking at all this every large DIP in USDJPY should be seen a buying opportunity. CHEERS AND THANKS. HOPE YOU FOUND THIS INSIGHT HELPFUL
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY...The Stuff of Nightmares....So I'll cut to the chase, as we may not have much time.... USDJPY Signaling Major Risk Off move, we've only seen the beginning of the "Blood in the streets" "Buy the Dip" moment, IMO. Take profits, be safe. Protect against Risk Off/Liquidity events, in these globally connected markets...they can cascade quickly, biblically. 4 previous times I've had this signal (it's not related to any indicator on the chart, so don't look for it there). The 4 signals were all correct, and their avg dump to the downside was 970ish pips ( I rounded ). Projected from our current Top....it's a beautiful ICT style PDArray from an area of Premium, to a nice Discount accumulation (tbd at that point). As always, practice solid risk management, and good luck trading.
Short
by mrjones2020
DAX Sells-Off As Markets Are In Risk-Off SentimentHello traders and investors! Markets are in risk-off mode as the media is spreading fear about the new covid variant. But everything is maybe just too pessimistic if we consider there are no deaths and no hospitalization for a new variant! However, markets do not like uncertainty so we are seeing a sharp sell-off on stocks, even commodities are coming down which is making a dollar, jpy and chf very strong. DAX is coming down but into some support at around 15k with five waves down, so rally can be coming in three waves. Resistance is at 15500/15450, where a new sell-off may show up, but only once we have an a-b-c rally. All the best! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by ew-forecast
RISK ON vs RISK OFFI tried to show you in this example what is the difference between risk on and risk off, what financial instrumnets rise during times of finacial stress aka risk off and what instruments rise during time of financial optimism aka risk on. RISK ON - is when investor are looking to multiply their money, they are looking for RISK. MORE RISK - MORE MONEY RISK OFF - is when investors are looking to keep/save their money, they are looking to protect more than to RISK. MORE PROTECTION - LESS MONEY P.S - Where do you think CRYPTOCURRENCY market goes? Into a RISK ON or RISK OFF financial instrument ? Comment below
TVC:VIXEducation
by AnonimFXRO
3
UPST bounceUPST i had been tracking as a risk off play so alot of people have been selling the positions especially with high inflation scares however i am happy to see it finally bounce off the 200MA cloud on my chart i will keep watching to see it build up from here before i go long with shares and options as this would be a good entry point if it starts to consolidate here, when I first reviewed this play i was already bullish and i published that video on youtube as it's great at mitigating risk while still producing solid rev as you can see from earnings reports it has been beating estimates out of the gate
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by Stock_Hustle21
$DXY: Weekly trend signal...This signal can end up nullifying a quarterly chart uptrend signal in $EURUSD, certainly interesting, massive coiled spring here. I'm keen on going long the dollar against weak currency pairs here. The $DXY trade itself isn't bad at all either. Market is in risk off mode so far, we had rising $VIX and $DXY while everything else was falling. Risk is 1.1% ish down from here, so size your positions according to your max risk tolerance. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
1
Gold 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring? In 2021 gold has been rotating between $1900 and $1700 per ounce. While a variety of classic patterns have either formed or attempted to form throughout the year there appears to be a broader attempt at a double bottom in 2021. The double bottom, having recently tested and rejected 1700, would need to breakout from ~1915 to be validated. This pattern projects 2150 as the target. Objectively gold was in a very strong uptrend from 2018 through 2020 and after making a new all time high in August 2020 the price has corrected almost 20%. There is clear support at 1700 and resistance at 1900. Continuing range bound price action suggests a mean price of 1800. The price is not going to reach 2150 on its own volition. Some factor's worth considering include risk-on/risk-off sentiment, Federal Reserve monetary policy, US Dollar valuation, political events, government trading, and the global supply from mining. Since the double bottom is not validated the current position is neutral with a bias in favour of mean reversion about 1800.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by xciiitradingco
Risk management lessonI mentioned it on another day already, but this topic is very important so I decided to share it again to reach as much as possible. Hope it will help some! The last weeks it happend again, I saw some traders with less knowledge (young and old) who crashed their accounts very hard. They lost a lot of money and for some it was very dreadful! It is hard to watch this people how they burn money and bring even his own family in financial danger. That´s why I decided to share one important chapter from my book here to you. May be some will find very helpful, or some will remember this rules again. I will keep it a bit shorter here as in my book, but the main points are still mentioned! I can´t say it often enough, keep the important rules in trading. Trading is not the way to get rich quick, it is a serious and hard business! It take a lot of time to learn, it requires a lot of patience and it will happen a lot of failures. This failures are even more important than your success! Success will not open up how it will not work, failures will. Let´s talk about risk management! For each investment you have to consider you take for each trade the risk to lose money, that´s why it is mandatory to handle each investment with a good risk/reward distribution. You have to keep in mind, the determined risk/reward is only theoretically and can result complete different. But with knowledge you can dedicate a good entry for your trades to keep your risk as low as possible. Determine important support and resistance levels and think about all situations what could happen and what will you do if you are going into the red or into the green? Which levels are the best entry and exit? This all will help you to determine your riks/reward ratio. What is the Risk/Reward Ratio? Successful day traders are generally aware of both, the potential risk and potential reward before entering a trade. The goal of a day trader is to place trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. These trades would be considered to have a good risk/reward ratio. A risk/reward ratio is simply the amount of money you plan to risk, compared to the amount of money you believe you can gain. For example, if you think a potential trade may result in either a $400 profit or $100 loss, the trade would have a risk/reward ratio of 1:4, making it a favorable setup. Contrarily, if you risk $100 to make $100, the trade has a risk/reward ratio of 1:1, giving you the same type of unfavorable odds that you can find in a casino. Which ratio should you desire? Like described above, finding trades with high risk/reward ratios (1:2 or higher), will help you maintain higher average profits and lower average losses, making your trading strategy more sustainable. The common suggestion between traders is a distribution of minimum 1:2 ratio. In reality there are often even better ratios available, if you do your technical chart analysis. But what should you do if you have to cut losses? We have to place our stop loss right below our support or other important levels we determined before. The purpose is to cut losses before they grow too large. Stopping out of a losing trade can be one of the hardest things for traders to do consistently. However, failing to take stops can result in margin calls, unnecessarily large losses, and ultimately account blowouts. How big should I enter a position? To lower your risk I recommend to think about your size to enter a position. Overall you shouldn´t risk money you need, only deposit money in your broker you can afford. Entering small can be the smartest way to safe your account. I suggest that because of four reasons, the first reason is, you don´t risk to much of your funds and your stop loss should be tight anyway. The second reason is, you can average down if the price is going in the other direction, but consider this option only if you are sure what you are doing. The third reason is, you can buy the dips/pullbacks if the trend is strong and still heading in your desired direction. In addition, the fourth reason is, your emotional control is stronger if the price movement is heading in the wrong direction. That brings me to another topic. Should you use leverage? Yes I know, big leverage will give you big gains...but as a beginner you will not have the experience to know which trade has a very big potential or not. Even experienced traders use only a small amount to enter a position and not the whole fund. If you use leverage the losses can be much higher and the problem with that is, if you lose money, your leverage will also decrease significantly and the losses are harder to recover after each loss. So the answer of the question, if you should use leverage: For beginners we can easily answer: Take your hands of a big leverage! You can so hardly blow up yourself with that tool, it is ridiculous. Your way back into the profit zone will probably take years. But you have to save yourself and after a period of time, a period of taking profits and cutting losses you will gain knowledge until you feel much more comfortable on the market and you understand how trading really works, then you can consider to use leverage. Conclusion: As I said, I want to share only some big points about this topic, because I think many new investors don´t understand how important that topic is! Safe yourself and have fun in trading and learning! Sincerely, TradeandGrow Trade safe!
NYSE:AMCEducation
by TradeandGrow
2
Today I want to share some very important points in trading!The last weeks it happend again, I saw some traders with less knowledge (young and old) who crashed their accounts very hard. They lost a lot of money and for some it was very dreadful! It is hard to watch this people how they burn money and bring even his own family in financial danger. That´s why I decided to share one important chapter from my book here to you. May be some will find very helpful, or some will remember this rules again. I will keep it a bit shorter here as in my book, but the main points are still mentioned! I can´t say it often enough, keep the important rules in trading. Trading is not the way to get rich quick, it is a serious and hard business! It take a lot of time to learn, it requires a lot of patience and it will happen a lot of failures. This failures are even more important than your success! Success will not open up how it will not work, failures will. Let´s talk about risk management! For each investment you have to consider you take for each trade the risk to lose money, that´s why it is mandatory to handle each investment with a good risk/reward distribution. You have to keep in mind, the determined risk/reward is only theoretically and can result complete different. But with knowledge you can dedicate a good entry for your trades to keep your risk as low as possible. Determine important support and resistance levels and think about all situations what could happen and what will you do if you are going into the red or into the green? Which levels are the best entry and exit? This all will help you to determine your riks/reward ratio. What is the Risk/Reward Ratio? Successful day traders are generally aware of both, the potential risk and potential reward before entering a trade. The goal of a day trader is to place trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. These trades would be considered to have a good risk/reward ratio. A risk/reward ratio is simply the amount of money you plan to risk, compared to the amount of money you believe you can gain. For example, if you think a potential trade may result in either a $400 profit or $100 loss, the trade would have a risk/reward ratio of 1:4, making it a favorable setup. Contrarily, if you risk $100 to make $100, the trade has a risk/reward ratio of 1:1, giving you the same type of unfavorable odds that you can find in a casino. Which ratio should you desire? Like described above, finding trades with high risk/reward ratios (1:2 or higher), will help you maintain higher average profits and lower average losses, making your trading strategy more sustainable. The common suggestion between traders is a distribution of minimum 1:2 ratio. In reality there are often even better ratios available, if you do your technical chart analysis. But what should you do if you have to cut losses? We have to place our stop loss right below our support or other important levels we determined before. The purpose is to cut losses before they grow too large. Stopping out of a losing trade can be one of the hardest things for traders to do consistently. However, failing to take stops can result in margin calls, unnecessarily large losses, and ultimately account blowouts. How big should I enter a position? To lower your risk I recommend to think about your size to enter a position. Overall you shouldn´t risk money you need, only deposit money in your broker you can afford. Entering small can be the smartest way to safe your account. I suggest that because of four reasons, the first reason is, you don´t risk to much of your funds and your stop loss should be tight anyway. The second reason is, you can average down if the price is going in the other direction, but consider this option only if you are sure what you are doing. The third reason is, you can buy the dips/pullbacks if the trend is strong and still heading in your desired direction. In addition, the fourth reason is, your emotional control is stronger if the price movement is heading in the wrong direction. That brings me to another topic. Should you use leverage? Yes I know, big leverage will give you big gains...but as a beginner you will not have the experience to know which trade has a very big potential or not. Even experienced traders use only a small amount to enter a position and not the whole fund. If you use leverage the losses can be much higher and the problem with that is, if you lose money, your leverage will also decrease significantly and the losses are harder to recover after each loss. So the answer of the question, if you should use leverage is: For beginners we can easily answer: Take your hands of a big leverage! You can so hardly blow up yourself with that tool, it is ridiculous. Your way back into the profit zone will probably take years. But you have to save yourself and after a period of time, a period of taking profits and cutting losses you will gain knowledge until you feel much more comfortable on the market and you understand how trading really works, then you can consider to use leverage. Conclusion: As I said, I want to share only some big points about this topic, because I think many new investors don´t understand how important that topic is! Safe yourself and have fun in trading and learning! Sincerely, TradeandGrow Trade safe!
NYSE:NIO
by TradeandGrow
8
AUDUSD bulls have a bumpy road aheadAUDUSD refreshes intraday low under 0.7400 threshold as covid woes escalate in Australia, taking down the overall risk sentiment amid pre-Fed cautious mood. The same reverse the Aussie pair’s breakout of a three-week-old resistance line, portrayed the previous day, by staying below a broad horizontal resistance area since July 09. Hence, the quote is likely to retest the previous resistance line, near 0.7355, before challenging a weekly support line around 0.7340. Should AUDUSD bears keep reins past 0.7340, the monthly low near 0.7288 will be on their radars. Meanwhile, the stated resistance area surrounding 0.7400–7410 guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of a descending trend line resistance from June 11, surrounding 0.7440. In a case where AUDUSD bulls manage to cross the 0.7440 hurdle, a 200-SMA level close to 0.7510 will be a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Hence, the bearish trajectory has multiple filters to the north and the risk-off mood keeps sellers hopeful.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
RISK MANAGEMENTHad some spare time today so decided to backtest my strategy. As a day trader, I try to minimize risk as much as possible, and if it's one thing I learned this is the way you stay in the game. It can be frustrating leaving money on the table but equally frustrating being stopped out for a loss. I normally take 2 trades a day or add to my position if I can find something. What I like to do is move my stop to breakeven or understructure to protect profit. I'd rather be stopped out for breakeven rather than it hit my stop but this is not always the case if it needs space to breathe before it starts going into profit at which case I might get stopped out for a small loss. As the trade progresses I move my stop under the previous wick or sometimes the body locking in more profit on the way. I DON'T LIKE TO GIVE TOO MUCH BACK ONCE I'M IN PROFIT BUT THAT'S JUST ME. Always remember Discipline, Strategy, and then risk. Good luck with your trading.
Education
by hyperspacefx