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EURUSD remains pressured below 50-SMA, monthly low in focusDespite bouncing off intraday low, EURUSD remains below immediate hurdles, namely 50-SMA and weekly rising trend line. Also keeping the pair sellers hopeful are the downbeat MACD and RSI conditions. Hence, the latest corrective pullback could be ignored unless the quote stays below the short-term resistance line around 1.1985. Although a breakout of 50-SMA level of 1.1920 can’t be ruled out. It should, however, be noted that the trend remains bearish unless the quote crosses a downward sloping trend line from May 17, near 1.2075. Meanwhile, the 1.1900 threshold and the yearly low around 1.1845 can lure the intraday bears. In a case where EURUSD bears remain dominant past 1.1845, the 1.1800 round figure may act as a buffer before driving the prices southward to an ascending support line from November, close to 1.1765. To sum up, the quote remains depressed but intermediate bounces may be expected.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls struggle between 50-SMA and previous supportDespite failing to cross the previous support line from May 13, AUDUSD holds onto bounce off 50-SMA amid early Monday. Given the pair’s risk barometer status amid the current cautious markets, AUDUSD is likely to remain heavy. Hence, a clear downside break of 50-SMA level surrounding 0.7570 should back the bears targeting the yearly low of 0.7478. During the fall, the last Monday’s swing high near 0.7545 and the 0.7500 threshold could offer intermediate halts. Should the market sentiment improves, backing the AUDUSD beyond the 0.7610 trend line hurdle, the early month low of 0.7645 and lows marked during late May, as well as mid-June, may test the pair buyers near 0.7675. In a case where the quote stays bullish above 0.7675, the 0.7700 round figure and the monthly peak of 0.7775 will be in focus. Overall, AUDUSD consolidates the monthly losses but the key resistance tests the upside momentum.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Bitcoin Tops and Bottoms Before the S&P500Is Bitcoin a good barometer for the broader market? The chart laid out above suggests this is a possibility - and indeed, it would make a lot of sense, considering how risk tends to peak prior to tactical and cyclical corrections in the stock market, and Bitcoin is broadly considered to be a risk asset. Note how the 2017 macro top in BTC foretold a top in the S&P just 5 weeks later, and in 2018 BTC bottomed just a few weeks before the S&P. Yet again, this relationship held during the 2020 COVID crash with BTC finding a bottom just two weeks before the S&P. Is the recent top formation in Bitcoin signaling potential weakness in the S&P500 that is yet to come? With breadth deteriorating across major indices, the almighty dollar (DXY) finding support and shaping up for a potential double bottom, and the least amount of bears on the AAII survey since Feb 2018, it's possible that the S&P is in for a deeper pullback, one that is well-deserved after such an incredible run from the COVID crash lows. One thing I'm looking for to see confirmation of a tactical top in the broader stock market is the Financials Sector (XLF). If we can't hold above that former major resistance, then we are likely in for a messy S&P over the summer. Remember, assets can correct in both price and time. We may just be in for some more sideways rather than an outright move down. If the S&P does begin to correct, it is safe to assume that Bitcoin may once again find a constructive bottom a few weeks before the S&P. I'll be on the lookout for all of the above and will keep this post updated. Till then, happy trading!
BNC:BLX
by CalmCapital
What on Earth does Risk-On / Risk-Off Mean?If you have been hearing people say things like "The market is in risk-on mode today" and you have no idea what the hell they are on about, then read this. TLDR: Risk-On means that in general, the winds are fair for the market. Market participants feel that there is no real bad news around, economies are running along quite nicely, thank you. Risk-Off means there is either some nervousness or even a panic. When looking at the equity market's Risk-On / Risk-Off status, amazingly, people look at the major currencies for the clue. This may not seem intuitive, but here's why: There are 8 major currencies. Some of them are "commodity currencies". These are CAD (Oil), AUD (minerals mining) and NZD (foodstuffs). When the world economy is rockin', these states to sell and their tax receipts go up, and the rest of the world needs to own their currency to buy their goods. So, their currencies appreciate. Also lumped in with them (certainly for me) is GBP, as the United Kingdom sells services to the world like accountancy, and these services are in more demand when the world is in good shape. So, that gives 4 major Risk-On currencies. There are also 4 Risk-Off currencies. USD, JPY, CHF and (more and more) EUR. These 4 are seen as "reserve" currencies, "safe havens" in a storm, especially USD. When the smelly stuff hits the fan, nervous people sell their CADs and AUDs etc and run for safety. All the safe currencies rally and the commodity currencies sag. Take a look at March 2020, Pandemic hits: Equities traders running around with their pants on the heads, and the "reserve" currencies rally. The indicator used in this chart is freely available in my profile. It might be used to indicate the overbought or oversold nature of the two sets of currencies, to help index and equities traders.
UEducation
by Paul_Varcoe
1
S&P 500 / SPY Breaks Down to Support, Bounce or Larger Crash?The S&P 500 has broken down to trendline support after a failed breakout at 4240. The SPY index formed a high at 4238 and tried to break it at 4255, but failed to hold above that alltimehigh. It is now testing trendline support, and the question is whether price will bounce here at support or will support fail to hold and thus lead to a much larger correction. Part of the reason that I'm looking at the S&P500 even though I mostly focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is that the correlation between the two has recently been quite high, and they have both been retracing in the past few days, so a recovery in the S&P500 could also bode well for a recovery in Bitcoin and the wider cryptoassets. The key level to watch is 4175. If this level holds, then we remain above the trendline and can expect another leg up. If we close below 4175, then be prepared for some volatility upon trendline break as we might have formed a double top, which will likely also trickle over to Bitcoin and other risk-on assets as well. Of course, it's possible that what we are seeing is similar to what we saw back in March, when price failed to hold a higher high, broke down a bit, and then rallied higher. If price does break down, then the 200 day moving average at 3900 should serve as ultimate support, though I'd think that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve would have stepped in before that happens.
SP:SPXShort
by cryptotraderog
7
AUDUSD - IS IT TIME TO FADE?AUDUSD - We reached that golden area of 0.80! Then, we faded that area...what's next? This morning typing this we down half of 1% - Since my year ahead outlook 0.80 is an area I have been eyeing for a while, since we finally reached that target area there will be an update video for the Q2 on what to expect. This will be shared privately via YouTube - If you're interested: Comment down below or message privately. I've been fading the majors from the start of the week - as yields rise higher, tech space declining, it's an interesting time. Will there be YCC from the Feds? Commodities are at interesting area. AUDUSD - Follow your own trade plan. Support: 0.78050, 0.77700, 0.77455 Resistance: 0.78790, 0.78970, 0.79300 Target area: 0.77700 areas (ALL DEPENDENT ON PRICE & FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS) I've taken 70% of profits. If price to rise I will be adding to my position to get in further. Key tip: Mostly everyone can analyse a chart and being on a demo account that's the easy part done, but emotionally not everyone can control there live execution state and that what makes you different from just an analyst to being a real market maker! And you can do it. FRIDAY QUOTE: The jealous are troublesome to others, but a torment to themselves. - William Penn Have a good weekend. Trade Journal (DISCLAIMER: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal