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USD CHF - to the earths coreHello analysts and traders - Let's take a look for a long term sell USD CHF - please note, our positions and entries will change with accordance for the market conditions. COT Data: Averages Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 12,661 7,169 19,830 64% 36% Avg_20 13,054 8,583 21,637 62% 38% Avg_130 13,200 16,542 29,740 49% 51% Now let us see the Net position changes - see how strong the Swiss Franc has become. Date Long Short Net Change in positions 14/07/2020 16,526 9,469 25,995 64% 36% 7,057 3,279 07/07/2020 12,832 9,054 21,886 59% 41% 3,778 -560 30/06/2020 12,796 8,458 21,254 60% 40% 4,338 2,890 23/06/2020 11,739 10,291 22,030 53% 47% 1,448 -158 16/06/2020 9,150 7,544 16,694 55% 45% 1,606 -160 09/06/2020 10,463 8,697 19,160 55% 45% 1,766 -7,223 it is clear longs have been added. Expectations based on the consolidation: Technicals: 20month + consolidation of the pair ranging from 1.00 to 0.93 - now the price has broken the distribution Weekly demand zone - however, the demand has previous touches this is the so the chances of a breakthrough from the strong safehaven of the CHF is a likelihood. Looking at the VIX - we can see this increasing by a large amount first targets are 40.00 DXY the dollar is weakening to a 95.2 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards - the lows of 82 are to be tested. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Nasdaq monthly close will be a bearish hammer unless bulls keep the 10,600 supply intact. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
FTSE 100 - short as in 50-61.8% ratio. Hello analysts and traders - Looking at the FTSE100 - it is time to sell? We think yes - we have monitored this on private charts but now it is time show a public view and to close some longs and begin to hedge and close out final longs. Have you noticed a pattern? All indexes have had Vshaped recoveries - however is it sustainable? Nope. With a lot of the companies on the FTSE stock exchange being foreign owned on multiple exchanges - it is clear that these giants will see a poor performance coming. Technicals - weak trend line which saw a fakeout and retest on our orginial trendline - but this was now corrected. Now we move sideways around the 50%. Taking the impulse from the highs to the lows March end. We have a very poor trend line which is a correction rising channel - but as tailed off. UK sectors - will see large outflows with the FTSE supply and lower high formed - means the sentiment is sour. The UK has a dead cat bounce , similar to S&P, Nasdaq, and Dax. VIX and Gold will be the strongest gainers where money printing and inflation occurs. . Fundamentals Brexit in play with a little chance of a deal and the stimulus package which the UK provided to citizens is clever to many to provide companies with the 20% pay gap, however many people are still not in work and the sentiment of the government finding ways to prevent debt to tip over 100% will become a real issue. Brexit again, EU stimulus package for loans and grants is another poor decision - with many countries affected in crippling ways, Southern Europe, Eastern Europe also and western countries e.g. Scandinavian, Netherlands all not wishing this would go ahead. Germany need the stimulus to keep on top of the EU. Germany has become the power of EU since Euro inception. UK assets - will be reduced to losses without trade deals from the EU, USA and Canadian, swiss or singaporean style deal.. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets - both work in investment banks, hedge funds simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by LupaCapital
US 10 BondsThe US 10 Year Bond is probably the most watched metric used to determine the health of the markets. A drop in yields denotes fear and all risk assets are being sold off. The current chart for the 10 Year Bond looks pretty ugly, but it might make the bears quite happy. We are in a giant descending triangle. The formation within the triangle is a very ugly topping pattern. The chart below is the price action of the 10 Year Bond and it is even more defined and clear. We are approaching the end of the formation. Currently we stand at the edge and a single big red day may mean a continuation of the down trend. Oil and stocks seem to be topping or at meaningful resistance. Does this mean an imminent drop? No. I am no bear and I frankly don't care which way the markets go, but caution is very much advised. A daily close past the respective resistance/support lines will be a giant red flag for risk assets. Precious metals will likely also drop in such a situation as they have been trading similarly to stocks. However, the drop will likely be far less severe than the last one. This is not trading advice, but purely my personal opinion.
TVC:US10Y
by Svetul4o
3
EUR/JPY Short Hello traders ! I have this trade for you, on higher time frames, daily and weelky we are on a down trend, using this information and combining with that highlighted zone on the chart we discover a zone of resistence. We have also a risk on sentiment on the market that give us an extra pro argument to take this short. We can get 3+ R/R that is nice for us ! You can enter in this trade right now and put your SL at 124.150, yout TP at 123.450 and wait to make money ! Also during nights and when Sydney and Tokyo will open up theyr markets and New York will close the market, during this time this pair is losing some price ! use that wisely ! Have a good night !
Short
by Andrei_C
GBP AUD - long term buys - impulse into the range againHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. Over the end of last week, we saw the Aussie get stronger but was not enough to break through to 1.78 area. so the demand zone still stands and the range is in play and active. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 30,441 54,256 84,697 36% 64% Avg_20 33,958 63,290 97,248 35% 65% Avg_50 39,133 76,363 115,496 34% 66% Avg_130 38,877 76,625 115,502 34% 66% COT data: Pound Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
GA trading range update - short near term, still longHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. We added a new sell position in order to protect longs, keep in mind this is risky - but until price shows a break of the range of clear downside movements. This accumulation range will build up a big move up or down. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_20 33,541 66,392 99,933 33.55% 66.45% COT data: Pound 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% 31,267 45,396 76,663 42% 58% AVG 13 weekly With reference to previous postings, these are still very much in play. Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Ausrtralia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - long term buys update - accumulation rangeHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% 27,228 56,775 84,003 33% 67% AVG 13 weekly COT data: Pound 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% 31,267 45,396 76,663 42% 58% AVG 13 weekly Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold, Oil, Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Ausrtralia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
by LupaCapital
GBP JPY - Potential short continuation if zone is rejected.Hello traders and analysts, we have a great opportunity here for a short swing if the criteria is met remember price is reactive to levels so only trade this scenario if it fits with your criteria. COT data, GBP Long Short Total %Long %Short 1,477 43,607 75,084 43% 57% JPY Long Short Total %Long %Short 26,924 52,964 79,888 34% 66% Price can break the daily level with the following; GBP news of re-opening the economy for public spending internally Progress with EU trade deal Breaking through the 1.25 level and closing higher on a daily close. Gold movements sell off Price can be short if: risk off sentiment is present with coronavirus - as safehaven currencies become stronger fail to break 1.25 to the upside Stalled EU trade talks correlation with gold buys Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
USD CAD short only if NFP provides a direction of shortHello traders and analysts, we have an opportunity here for a short with Dollar strength amid risk off - only if NFP shows the right direction. As figures could be manipulated and also once the market has made it's move, we will also make ours. Technical direction: - Holding an indecision structure. - weekly is an uptrend however there is a nice reversal from 1.40 - break of the trendline and now retracing. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct. - we have made higher lows on the 2 hour - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks forming to show anticipation for the next move. COT data CAD Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 47,439 19,696 67,135 71% 29% USD index Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 21,244 10,212 31,456 67% 33% Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. We will most likely enter where we have positioned on the chart - but only if our criteria is met. Good luck and enjoy Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
ridethepig | Delights and Torments📍 By now I am sure you all have grasped the basic premise: from the very start of the March dead cat bounce we are calling bluff and looking to play the fade, fighting the Fed does work on occasion despite the rumours, and lastly have formed enough energy after this quarter for a huge swing down in global equities as Long bonds complete the cycle. Most recessions typically take 5 Quarters to play out, with the study of history it is not a bad thing to introduce one or two of those five quarters are retracements to introduce concepts of the trap. One must act in their best interest, recognise straightaway that this is a game of risk flows and stimulus which are both possible and likely via combinations of further lockdowns and coordinated CB intervention. The only thing to result from all these demonstrations will be a massive breakup in Gold: the last three iterations have been natural; of course all exclusively live on tradingview. How can we continue to load? 📌 => Delights and Torments of Adding to Swing Positions The typical retail error is over committing in size to positions; of course the fact that the first three entries are all sitting heavy in profit we are entitled to an ideal privilege. For, me the breakup is an active confirmation of momentum in the spirit of risk via Covid , Brexit and the pending Sovereign Debt Crisis. Measures like this cannot be left out. Event risk must be taken and played with. Quite naturally, these bear character and influence. There is cause for hurry to occupy the $1,900 target within a few days and weeks. A journey where we can seek to settle and thus take profits before reloading without any effort for $2,000 and beyond in 2021. A huge economic shock... with VIX still sitting above Lehmen levels try as you may to believe this is a V shape recovery... I am not buying it. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
14
GA long update - officially longLong activated as per previous - Waited for the double bottom to occur. technical fresh touch of the demand after a long rally down drop base drop scenario on previous touch - strong engulfing candles to the upside, similar pattern here bearish technical - was oversized head and shoulders Long term - Aussie will lose momentum with a risk off scenario If you like our work and updates - Leave a comment and like. Good luck and enjoy the trade. If you like our swing trade work, please leave a like and or comment. Thanks, Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBPJPY bearish continuation (100+ pips opportunity)Pound, unlike other currencies that enjoy appreciation vs safe havens under times of sentiment improvement and risk assets bull market has other economical and fundamental problems. Still, the big issue is coronavirus but Brexit uncertainties are weighing on Pound heavily. BOE didn't change rates but left the same as before, plus adding some more stimulus which markets didn't 'cheer' as enough questioning BOE's support to the economy. JPY appreciated the most last week vs majors and on secular performance as well on the latest Coronavirus fears. Indices and metals were lower as well giving risk-off signals toward the investors. GBP is still the best candidate to depreciate vs other currencies, but given the mentioned sentiment fact safe havens might hurt Pound more than risk-on currencies. As June is coming near its end sentiment shift might stay for a while and further corrections could keep ongoing. Technically this pair is bearish from higher timeframes (looking from monthly, weekly, daily) and broke its key near term support levels. 131-133 range might be in-play if we form support on 131, but even lower levels like 130-129 are not excluded due to strong momentum at the moment. IDEAS: Any pullback towards 133 as long as the price stays under and doesn't close green daily candle above is a selling opportunity. The best way to enter a sell would be to wait this pullback under these circumstances and enter on last known support breakout. I consider this the safest way to enter the continuation trend market. By doing it this way you simply eliminate the risk of fakeouts, early entries, and the most important counter-trend trap (bull traps). Trade at your own risk!
Short
by fxmonarchy
USDCAD: possible long opportunityUSDCAD is breaking the trendline formed since the beginning of this week. On the chart you can see some support/resistance areas + RSI divergence + price above all moving averages and not too far away... Stocks and oil are under pressure, thus risk-off is favorable for USD bulls. Another USD long already opened. Entering the position around 1.3560 (current level) with 1.3780 T/P and 1.35 S/L provides decent R:R=3. Wait for confirmation and relevant price action on the lower time-frame before entering the position. // Make your own analysis before entering position. Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated + support my work by hitting like.)
Long
by GIgor_021