Get started

Riskoff

#AUDJPY [4H] Risk-OFF Alert. [85% : 15%] A fall Anticipated...SAXO:AUDJPY Has failed several times last couple of weeks to break through the 70 mark. As risk aversion kicks in including recent tensions between US and China. A risk off mode might be brought into the market. This can reflex in a big way into SAXO:AUDJPY as AUD is 4th most expensive currency at the moment and kind of over bought considering the slow economy looming. Here is a short setup for the upcoming week with a ratio of 85% to 15% in favor of short over long. Follow for more ideas... AHMEDMESBAH
Short
by AhmedMesbah
2
GBPJPY - Short - Take Profit 130.000Short trade recommended with a take profit of 130.000 Fibonacci Retracement at 0.382 struggling to break through the past 10+ days to the 0.5 retracement level. The real test of this trade once reached is the 132.500 level which has proven extremely difficult to break over the past 10 days. The upside today was based on a wave of fundamental news (Postive) and strong index performance across the globe seeing between 5% - 8% gains across the globe weakened the YEN. The evening seen a snap downwards due to minister being admitted to ICU. I expect to see downside in Asian session tonight (Provided no positive news moving futures upwards).
Short
by darrenkav25
1
AUDJPY Possible Bearish Continuation Price floating below the long period SMA 200 (red) and trading under the weekly and daily pivot point already indicting bearish sentiment for this pair. Comdolls aren't doing well and the risk bets are not good so far which we can see from the price action in most of comdolls related pairs like au,uc,nu. Yen and dollar ruling over the market this week so far which let me think that this pair might drop further lower if market mode are in risk off.
Short
by Anatta0
2
USDOLLAR Slides to 61.8% Fibonacci LevelFurther to yesterday's article , the USDOLLAR has continued to decline. It now finds itself at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of its previous impulse move. This level overlaps with price support (green shaded horizontal) around the 12,290 level. The rotation of capital into bonds as well as short term notes is putting pressure on yields. This is the the catalyst for the lower USD. We note the positive correlation between the 2 Yr Treasury Bill and the USDOLLAR (red rectangle areas). However, we again reiterate that the RSI for the T-Bill is oversold (blue rectangle) and that it will need to normalize soon. This is likely to provide support for the greenback, which may provide a floor to further greenback weakness in the near term.
FX:USDOLLARLong
by FXCM
USDJPY - SHORT - RISK OFF - NEW WAVE COUNTTECHNICAL STRATEGY I am looking to take this short (after a pullback) after this has been rejected from the top side of this descending triangle. I am also anticipating a new wave count and hoping to catch the 3rd wave. DESCENDING TRIANGLE RISK OFF SENTIMENT Another thing that drove me to sell this pair is the fact that the CBOE Volatility Index has spiked it to level after a very long time which is initiating that we are currently risk-off.
Short
by zorrays
THE GOLD RUSH (shooting up) - Why? And how can I get involved?Gold is setting record new highs with no sign of slowing. This is due to gold being a "safe heaven", e.g when there is uncertainty in the market, large investors move to safer options such as resources with limited availability. This is because due to there only being a certain amount of gold on earth at any given time it always retains value. Gold being the favourite. Due to the Corona virus large uncertainty in many countries currency has impacted the market. So how can I get involved and make some profit? We know fundamentally gold is long, so now to the charts for the technical's. Looking back on the WEEKLY we can see there is no real structure to slow down the price of gold, so go long on the pullbacks or break of new highs.(Basic trend trading skills required, just have a search online it's fairly simple to learn). High impact corona virus news will fuel the move upwards, but also be weary any news that stabilises the market will make gold plummet. Fun fact: Did you know if you collected all the worlds gold and made it into a cube, you could have an approximate 20m x 20m x 20m cube that would fit under the Eiffel tower! Get gold, not Corona!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by joebrownFX
Live Positioning in GBPJPY !!!A round of GBP chart updates after the latest cabinet reshuffle. A nice sweep of the highs and we are set to go with the fiscal taps set to rain down and attempt to offset the impact via brexit. On the other side we have risk taking the spotlight again with coronavirus flows not abating. JPY is set to outperform over the coming sessions with a soft selloff in global equities and with GBPJPY at the top in the range we are sitting at good value levels to recycle shorts. For the map: Highs 143.25 <=> Mid 142.25 <=> Lows 141.25 Expecting a red asian session with more risk clearing to be complete, I am taken back by how complacent that many markets have been able to try looking through the outbreak. We have a few reasons to remain on high alerts, uncertainty around the 2s5s: Notice how the inversions are ahead of recessions, while the press reports all is well there are downside risks building and playable across many markets. If we see an improvement in sentiment around the coronavirus I will lighten up. I will not be stubborn and hold on. Keep it simple and trade the driver! Don't forget to keep the likes and comments coming!!
Short
by ridethepig
1
AAPL: Puts might pay off...I'm posting this one as an update to my broad stock positions outlook. For now I've moved to cash in all positions, and bought some energy, gold/mining/oil and added to my #Bitcoin holdings with proceeds. I also have some bearish bets in #AAPL, might be a good idea to reduce risk. My bullish posts for stocks might end up resulting in a failed signal, or maybe they endure a large drop before going back up over time. Be safe out there! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by IvanLabrie
Weekly Fundamental Update (Mon Jan 27, 2020)Weekly Fundamental Update This last week ended with a noteworthy sell off seen towards the end of the week and it was a broad sell-off not specific, which is more accurate of risk-based movement a cross the financial markets rather than a specific impact from the target region (Asia) or asset class. Consideration of risk these days is important. The backing of value in its classical form has given way to an extreme amount of complacency; fueled by the bulls (buy-high, sell-higher). Being flexible to trade the markets bias and not the news is critical towards spotting opportunities in not only multiple timeframes but also across different asset classes. Your risk- tolerance should be in the front of your mind going into this next week. The most noteworthy topic last week was growth. Even though the GDP proxies that many people point to PMI’s have their flaws, they remain the leading key forward-looking indicator without any better solution. Generally speaking, they reflect the same figures as what the government published. In particular, this week’s Eurozone government-based GDP readings will be updated. This will be interesting considering the GDP from South Korea (worst since 2008) and China (worst in 29 years). Looking at the 10’s minus the 3-mo’s U.S. bonds you would assume that growth as far as a catalyst ended up with a weak footed bias. However, when you look at the PMI’s themselves, here’s how they stood. - JPY: +0.9 to 49.3 - NZD: -0.1% - EUR: +1.2 - Australia’s figures softened however the Japanese numbers improved. The number is still below 50 (indicative of a retraction), however its improvement was above 50 (an expansion). - Germany: A bigger than expected uptick, however still not above 50 - U.K.: A significant boost, manufacturing and services improving and shared burden 47.t to 49.8 - U.S.: Manufacturing ticked lower from52.4 to 51.7 (still above 50) Overall this data would be an improvement in growth. This didn’t reflect in the yield spread last week and risk-aversion was obvious. Now, what’s motivating this? If it’s something that we can identify than it’s something that most traders who consider fundamentals are all watching. I would define the complacency in the channel in the DOW, NASDAQ, or the SPX. These are the best performing asset classes in general, and especially in the last 12 months (U.S. equities vs rest of world equities (VEU)). The pullback yesterday almost hit the -1% mark, but the SPX was down 0.9%. This was a decline that was the biggest since October, but it’s also been 72 trading days without a 1% drop or advance. This is something that is considerable and can be directly reflected in the subdued volatility of the VIX. The next 1% move I think will be down, not up considering the current over extension of the longer-term bull run for the U.S. equity market. The top event risk this week depends on how we are surprised with scheduled events this week. The risk perspective will be a principle driver and I will be watching tomorrow during the N.Y. session to see how the current levels (which are at channel floors established since October 19) Event risk: The official GDP figures this week: Mexico and the U.S. on Thurs and the Eurozone on Friday. This will affect the EUR/USD and other U.S. dollar pairs. Given how quiet things have been on the Euro, I think it will reflect volatility seen in other cross pairs. Earnings: Tech, manufactures, goods etc. C onsumer confidence sentiment: worth highlighting, because of the impact is has the U.S. elections (second tax cut, and trade war resolutions) Monetary Policy: The Fed decision is the top priority this week for event risk. Higher levels of inflation is expected from Australia. There is also rumors based on the REPO/ swap market that the BOE will cut interest rates. The fed will release its forecast for 2020 and their “review” of their effectiveness of monetary policy (targeting 2% inflation vs QE as a standard tool vs. risk of high-leverage exposure to future crises) could raise questions of the ineffectiveness of monetary policy and its low rates and benchmark yields regarding solvency. This probability is low and it’s seen in the Fed Funds Futures contracts. You can’t write off the risk though, because if it comes to fruition it can overwhelm other fundamental themes. 03:11:43 (UTC) Mon Jan 27, 2020 ©2020
TVC:DXY
by TayFx
1
#Yen weekly chart update ! The futures chart suggests we are very close to be breaking out of a 4 year consolidation ( in this case barrier triangle ) in the price of Yen. This move should last aprox 2 years ( i am looking for wave equality of C vs A) , which looking at the macro global picture means that we should be getting ready for a period of strong risk averse sentiment , turbulent equity markets and overall defense style approaches. The catalyst for this remains to be seen, but the charts are telling you this before it happens. Buckle up !!
CME_MINI:J71!Long
by cryptcowboy
1