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Riskon

The Secrets to Forex & Why You Were Bullied at Trader HighSchoolThis is the second half of the deliverable on fundamentals. It covers content you don't normally learn about in the retail trading loserverse, stuff that is often paywalled behind shill "courses" or dismissed as unnecessary by wealth gurus. I'm here to short those paywalls with my appropriately priced FREE knowledge. Take everything in stride, this business wasn't meant to be mastered or understood overnight. You don't think they give the Fisher accounts of the world out to any tryhard with a computer and a chart? Conversely. Don't worry, too much knowledge is the best problem you can have. Part 1: Modern Chartfare When you started trading, you were probably 360 no-scoping your trades. You probably had a few win-streaks, and then a demoralizing losing streak. You felt your win/loss ratio falling and you sought out new strategies, new weapons. So you turned to the internet for ideas, like you would for anything. The omnipresence of advertising and social media caught your attention first. You turned to a metric shitload of wealth gurus. Instagram, telegram, pictogram, etc. Sure, the bros pitching this stuff look like older versions of the kids that bullied you in school, but now they're here to make you money, right? Nice try nitwit. Now you're making a new kind of losing investment. This is an important piece of "risk management," and I wasn't sure where to fit it in. But those educators, ARE your competitors. Your investment isn't a potential return, its accounts recievable to Guru LLC. When you make enough money trading, you don't need to shill services for income. Remember, forex is a meta marketplace itself, AKA a place to trade services . Most of which are scams or overpriced. Wealth and warfare go hand in hand. In capitalism, the true battlefield is your bank account, the true center of gravity is your mindspace. The weapons are languages, visuals, platforms, technologies.. And I can tell, trust me, that most of you are easily exploited noncombatants, unarmed and unable to defend yourself or stake a claim to survival in this eternal warzone. Step one to making wealth is protecting whatever amount (no matter how pathetic) of wealth you currently have. Step two is to stop chasing paywalled wealth gurus who draw no income from trading, or any profit that do is embarrassingly mediocre. Greed makes it too easy for the fishermen these days. But wealth that lasts is quiet and deals in many faces. You have to go looking for it, it doesn't try to find you. That's why I'm not selling you on overnight wealth, I'm buying you a lifetime of better risk taking behavior. You need to stop being a wierdo who idolizes mediocre profits. Part 2: Lunch is NOT for WIMPs Most of the information in this article is available to find online for free with enough effort, it's just not prioritized by the get-rich shills on major social media platforms. That's the problem. You're still getting bullied out of your lunch money. I have a counter-offer, I'll buy you lunch instead. At the conclusion of this series in a few months, I will launch a free, private signal service (based on one of my own profitable strategy systems), to build a new type of community, and to help demonstrate the effectiveness of my risk ethos promulgated across this series. I'll get into earning details in a later article, but those master accounts are traded by my hand and produce a minimum positive number of pips per month. Bottom line, it's enough for lunch at Dorsia. But it's not enough to replace a job. Answers to all questions will be provided when the time comes, and performance will be fully transparent. There will be rules for the community and the private signal, rules that may not make sense at first or seem unfamiliar, but everything will be free, always. I don't need your money, the federal reserve has given me plenty. Instead, I will 'trick' you into prioritizing the right things, to protect and develop your networth and lifeworth. From this new kind of community, I will eventually select a few unique individuals to inherit and run my forex trading systems, so I can focus on business creation. In the meantime, you should be utilizing free websites like FxBlue or Psyquation to manage and study your account risk overtime. You'll be able to see clear differences in the before and after comparison corresponding to your trading experience before finishing this series vs afterwards. Part 3: Factoring Events Alright, this will be a bit disjointed but let's start the race to the bottom. Some investors will pitch their fund or their style as event-driven trading. I simply call event-driven trading by another phrase, 'risk management.' That's all it is. EVENTS ARE THE ONLY FORM OF VOLATILITY THAT MATTERS. The priority for your risk management across long-term timeframes is not entirely explained in simple volatility equations. I have briefly mentioned this in prior articles. But the investing boomerisms about volatility are right and wrong. Volatility is the key to risk management, right, but only if you understand the threat origination of volatility itself, which most don't. Which is why they lose. Volatility is the rapid transition of fear into security or security into fear. The identifiable rapid transition EVENTS are driven by market psychology (the players within). And those rapid transition events CAN be predicted by preparing your trades for predicted/scheduled future EVENTS (and sometimes ongoing events). We talked a lot about geopolitics and some economic events in the last article. But there are others. You don't really need to know a lot about them, you just need to know that they are predictable events, which means meaningful volatility, which means risk management. You don't need to be an economist or try to out-analyze these events (though that might lead to some edge), because you can safely assume that the forecasts are already priced in. You can assume that the majority of major market players did their own research or got access to better research. Tough to out-edge those guys. There's a reason they own the porn industry. "Thank God I don't have to use my brain too much." No, don't even. I would rather not create anymore dumb rich people, we got enough already and boy are they big liabilities. Part 4: Losers Wouldn't Know A forecast isn't a foresight, its a guesstimate. We talked a lot about the inherent delusion built into speculation. Obviously, these guesstimates COULD be wildly wrong. The actuals could be 5 standard deviations away from the expert consensus estimate. Therein lies the potential for major volatility. Forget the digits, I want you to look at the econ calendar as opportunites for entry or exits in your trading system, and ignore the estimate. Or, if you already are exposed to the pair, I want your to prepare your position for these events ("prepare" will be further discussed). Both of these routes can constitute proper risk management in conjunction with key technicals, which is the focus of the next section. There are a ton of events that don't appear on the econ schedule though. Only the cool kids know about these. We did geopolitics already, the tough unscheduled stuff. But there is more to discuss. END OF MONTH + END OF QUARTER REBALANCING It's hard to predict cause commercials and institutions use broad cross-asset reasoning to balance portfolios, but generally the mindset is derived from a need to hedge across the major/minor/cross currencies (g10). The safest bet is to just expect volatility, and therefore prepare your risk management in concert. Dont spend cognitive resources trying to predict direction. Just look at the Biden campaign. Now that's how you conserve cognitive resources. LONDON FIX There are multiple fixes, but the London fix is the biggest and most relevant for majors because most of the money and most of the villains have congregated there. It occurs at 4PM City time (London time) and it's basically used as a benchmark for NON-SPOT market operations, like agreements/forwards between companies or branches within companies to convert currency to meet payment responsibilities like payroll, invoices, debts, etc. That was determined to be the "fairest" way, instead of negotiating over spot prices. The exact exchange values are determined with less oversight than you would hope but usually as an average of price range around the 4PM period. It just means that you have another volatility roadbump as a retail trader. For the powerful and wealthy, it might mean other opportunities. We don't always play the same game, even if it seems like it. The fix is even crazier during those end of month rebalancing events. Consider them gravitationally attracted. WITCHING HOURS This is the period when Wall Street performs satanic rituals for profitable insight. You probably won't have to worry too much about this now that we got Maxwell behind bars, and I really should've just covered it more directly in the seasonality article. This hour is just the last hour of trading on the third friday of every month (unless it's a holiday), where some options and some futures expire. The lead up to the hour itself can involve unusual price action from complex arbitrage. There is recent interest in resolving this inefficient period by developing special rollover/settlement options. CME Group (the largest futures group) is working on this, so I wouldn't do too much of a deep dive looking for edge because it might not exist for much longer. At most, you should just remember to increase risk oversight on the third friday of each month, and that a few months (March, June, Sept, Decem) have larger expiry loads, so be extra careful. That's the speedrun. Part 5: Steak Salesmen Trump tweets. Now in the steak salesman era of American politics, Presidents also like to hype or influence economic information, and significant portions of the market will react. You gotta follow the man in the OO if you want the complete global macro coverage. We have less than a year left of insured Trump tweets, and a speculative 4 more years of Trump tweets. I do consider a high probabilty of a Trump reelection, 70%+. Twitter market influence is here to stay either way, though it would be more subdued without Glormphf. This ties into a reliable source of fundamental certainty, which is the dependency of timezones and market newsflow. That is, big US market newsflow happens during the business day, by and large. Everyone is awake, everyone is at work. This is obvious but useful nevertheless. Lets say there is some kind of unscheduled macro leak, like a major Korean newspaper claims that a CCP trade minister said that TRADE DEAL PHASE 1 might be off the table.. the market will react poorly and all of this will occur overnight for the US and for EU. However, when the sun shines on that side of the world, we will get an update, and usually a correction, that calms markets. You can use that reaction cycle as a tradeable pattern in future instances. This type of pattern happens all the time, a few times a month at least. Part 6: The Confusion of Traders COT data. The Contusion of Traders data is the most freely available source of information that approximates open interest and institutional sentiment in forex. You probably know that real volume data is available for most financial assets on major exchanges (like stocks), but due to the derivative and OTC nature of forex, this real information on liquidity, sentiment, and volume is priveledged knowledge held privately by individuals and institutions to generate edge and to fiddle with spreads. COT data is a close but not exact representation of this liquidity and sentiment via commodity futures contracts held by trading funds, institutions of a market-making nature, or brokers. Unfortunately, this data is compiled and released weekly, and not in real-time. So it has a 1 week lag, and more during holidays. However, it is still very useful from a fundamental perspective for long-term traders. OI (open interest) shows DEMAND. You can find this data via google, and there are few dedicated people on a certain factory related forex site that put out excellent weekly COT reviews. Generally speaking, you want to look for strong competing trends between speculators and commercials. You will want to track your risk management to that trend. Quite frankly, you rarely want to trade against a strong COT data-derived trend unless you are making a special type of carry trade. If you want to bet against the trend, you incur the same risk-managment responsibilities of a commercial (deep pocket institutions, money makers), except you remain a pathetic and shallow pocketed retail trader. This is counter-intuitive because your capital is vastly limited both in size and use. Okay let's circle back to riskon and riskoff and tie them into econ events. Part 7: Securities Industry Essentials Exam The stock market is a critical component of fundamentals because it serves as a reliable indicator of riskon vs riskoff. Money considers the share market (like NASDAQ/DOW/SP500/NIKKEI, etc) risky. I find this absolutely clown-tier in the current year, considering Central Banking debt/asset strategies. Digression. It considers other equities like corpo bonds, debentures, warrants, etc, as accessories to share performance, at least when looking at drivers for riskon sentiment. Unfortunately, the stock market runs through exchanges that do not operate on a 24/7 basis, unlike forex. The old world still functions on sleep. Imagine sleeping when you could be making money. You can alleviate this issue by looking at the futures market, where you can follow different stock markets while live exchange data feeds are stopped. You need to be mindful of which stock market to follow based on time of day. Recall that NA and EU represent most of the influence on sentiment only while live. Commodities like energies and metals are perhaps even clearer examples of risk sentiment. With the exception of gold and silver, most commodities are riskon, and act as a signal for demand within economies. Since economies are the underlying to markets, markets interpret commodity demand (which generally reflects as higher prices), as a sign that economies are growing. Copper in particular because of its valience application in much of the developed, tech-dependent world. Part 8: The Pyramid Club National bonds were discussed in prior articles. Bond PRICE rises (because demand increases) during riskoff periods. Now, this is only true for SAFEHAVEN countries. Well-managed, top-twenty economies. This is because demand for a national bond can drop if investors think the country is at risk of debt restructuring. Though, as prior mentioned in the carry article, this issue is more political than it is economic in nature, and a bailout is always available. It might be easier to think of national bonds as 'loans' citizens can give to governments. Writing a loan for a trustworthy debtor could be an economically benefitial thing, but vice versa for a debtor who is struggling. In general, as a forex trader, just focus on US national bonds. Note that there are varity of national bond types, but the distinction between them is less relevant than the overall yield and price conditions. It only becomes relevant if you have a lot of money to invest, which we all know you don't have. Now what about yields? Sadly, as bond prices rise, the yield (added interest value) drops. Though in the grand scheme of things... yields are pretty much in net decline these past 10-15 years, which are the only kinds of timeframes they are truly relevant in anyway, except as a sentiment measure with glance value. Obviously, in a riskon environment, more investors, and therefore more money, shift into riskier avenues; so demand drops and bond prices drop. Now, there are other factors that influence the pricing of national bond yields and other country-level assets, namely interest rates set by a central bank, yield curve issues, and other money operations between the central bank and private banks. As mentioned in the article on carry trades, the importance of staying up to date on central banking activity and rationale is paramount in the world of forex. I'm not going to give a 21st Century Central Banking ECON 301 course here; just research the history of Gold Man Sachs' corporate management and you'll be ahead of the game. Also. VIX is another simple and popular tool for measuring the riskon vs riskoff environment, though as I have already warned in prior articles, volatility is not synonymous with risk due to its vulnerability to black swans, and risk management based on traditional volatility measures is not sufficient. And keep in mind that VIX has a sleep schedule. Part 9: Gekkos & Goblins It's easy to get lost in all the words, statements, claims, projections, predictions you get from experts, twitter, reports, releases, news, and media. But you have to stay laser focused on the flow of cash itself. Adding 'value' or 'growth' and removing 'liabilities' or 'obstacles' are nice terms, but they don't exist in reality. You can't put them in your pocket. You can't buy a house with them. Remember, ultimately it's all about the bucks, the rest is just conversation. Where ever there are billions sloshing around, there lies your market. You just need to watch the money move to understand the risk transitions. Though, don't follow it too closely, you might see something that was meant to be hidden. Part 10: Most Successful People were Bullied Society has an odd way of bullying people into conformity (and therefore mediocrity). But if you weather the mental pressure to conform, you end up outside the predicted plot. A place where no one can reach you. When making money is involved, that's usually a good thing. The last man standing is usually the risk management specialist, yet the biggest risk is not taking any risk at all. A paradox? You're not trying to avoid all loss, you're trying to be the best at managing loss. You can't be a risk management specialist without RISK being involved somewhere. You have to suffer the bullying before you can step outside of the plot. "Most men take few risks, and then they all die in the end anyway." The interesting characters in GOT died before the show ended, because they took interesting risks. If they didn't, then HBO wouldn't have made any money. The show was profitable because unexpected events drove interesting storylines, the writers weren't afraid to kill people off, break their paradigms, or run them through intense pain and embarrassment. You are HBO and your trades need to be like Littlefinger, for instance. He spent a lot of time worshipping risk and chaos, but wasn't he the most meticulous character in the show? What about Tyrion? He appeared to keep a low profile for most of the show, but actually took huge risks. Confused? Here's the sum of these analogies: You will get bullied by the market. But if you can break your mental paradigms, kill off bad strategies, and survive the pain and embarrassment, you'll be the last man standing. Well, technically I'll be there, wondering what took you so long.
by CountofCoins
AUD/USD + RISK ON SENTIMENT⭐️Key Takeaways⭐️ ✔️ AUDUSD is that risk-on sentiment currency - should monitor SPX for correlations. ✔️ Gold continues to maintain it's bull run but struggled to break above $2000. A correction is gold could signal strength with the buck. ✔️ Small timeframe rounding top action but could transition into a gartley pattern ⭐️Technical Analysis⭐️ As long as the US continues to see a rise in COVID19 cases, we should expect to continue to see further USD weakness. AUDUSD on the daily showing clear divergence with RSI. Seems like this divergence theme is getting pretty played out by now as we've seen divergence across the board for several weeks now with zero follow through. Ascending support maintains with this pair. Next critical upside resistance level is around the 0.73 handle. If we manage to break below the ascending support, that could open up further downside as the USD enters its correction phase to the upside. Downside levels of support to look out for include 70, 69 and 68 handles. Regards, Michael Harding RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this video are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
SP:SPX
by Michael_Harding
GBP AUD short to complete extension, then buy.Hello analysts and traders. Important updates - we have been holding a short and enjoying the wave ride down to the demand extension zone. The market works in waves - it is incredible. However - we are experiencing at this moment a really nice Fibonacci retracement on the GBP AUD - where AUD is in control more than the GBP despite strong buying net position changes. COT data: Pay attention to the Long positions added back in June. Aussie cot Data - Date Long Short Total %Long%Short Net Change 14/07/20 45,543 41,293 86,836 52% 48% 4,250 4,944 07/07/20 44,740 45,434 90,174 50% 50% -694 2,214 30/06/20 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% -2,908 1,902 23/06/20 35,974 40,784 76,758 47% 53% -4,810 1,722 16/06/20 31,685 38,217 69,902 45% 55% -6,532 30,043 09/06/20 29,912 66,487 96,399 31% 69% -36,575 4,216 GBP COT 14/07/2020 43,175 56,761 99,936 43% 57% -13,586 2,822 07/07/2020 39,892 56,300 96,192 41% 59% -16,408 4,582 30/06/2020 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% -20,990 -2,474 23/06/2020 29,654 48,170 77,824 38% 62% -18,516 -2,518 16/06/2020 29,378 45,376 74,754 39% 61% -15,998 8,050 09/06/2020 28,893 52,941 81,834 35% 65% -24,048 11,996 Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish - monthly also bearish - with a nice - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.715+ for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
US 10 BondsThe US 10 Year Bond is probably the most watched metric used to determine the health of the markets. A drop in yields denotes fear and all risk assets are being sold off. The current chart for the 10 Year Bond looks pretty ugly, but it might make the bears quite happy. We are in a giant descending triangle. The formation within the triangle is a very ugly topping pattern. The chart below is the price action of the 10 Year Bond and it is even more defined and clear. We are approaching the end of the formation. Currently we stand at the edge and a single big red day may mean a continuation of the down trend. Oil and stocks seem to be topping or at meaningful resistance. Does this mean an imminent drop? No. I am no bear and I frankly don't care which way the markets go, but caution is very much advised. A daily close past the respective resistance/support lines will be a giant red flag for risk assets. Precious metals will likely also drop in such a situation as they have been trading similarly to stocks. However, the drop will likely be far less severe than the last one. This is not trading advice, but purely my personal opinion.
TVC:US10Y
by Svetul4o
3
GBP USD - weakness coming as high, lower high formedHello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. what has changed since the last chart? So what is new is that we have had a zone touch and a lower 4hour zone touch. We can see personally a failed touch of the zone, the GBP is staying weak against the dollar with uncertainty of the GBP strength so we will now look to the downside and close out longs. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - long term buys - impulse into the range againHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. Over the end of last week, we saw the Aussie get stronger but was not enough to break through to 1.78 area. so the demand zone still stands and the range is in play and active. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 30,441 54,256 84,697 36% 64% Avg_20 33,958 63,290 97,248 35% 65% Avg_50 39,133 76,363 115,496 34% 66% Avg_130 38,877 76,625 115,502 34% 66% COT data: Pound Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
Dax daily: 15 Jul 2020Yesterday's price action was a great example of the rational behaviour of the market participants. As we mentioned in our analysis yesterday, the zone around 12 592 was important for establishing further price development, with the break outside signifying the continuation in that particular direction. Dax oscillated the entire European session before gaining momentum in the afternoon and we could target our trades to previous day VPOC. That is exactly what happened and Dax closed the day at the fair value with the biggest amount of orders. Important zones Resistance: 12 882 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened the day with an ascending gap and the first morning impulse attempts to close the gap. Considering the fact we have the resistance of 12 882 in near vicinity, we're now eying a lovely scenario of closing the gap as it correlates with the VPOC of Monday and then targeting the retest of resistance at 12 882 and possibly break higher. There are no fundamental releases scheduled for Dax today, but the optimism on the US stock markets dominates the market sentiment across the board, even despite the negative echoes of the US-China dealings. Consider it's the earning season too. Should the price get above 12 882, there is a lot of space ahead of us to continue our long bias in the short to the mid-term horizon.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
EURJPY Long after break, close and retest and a move upWe've had a bounce at the 119.50 level and a convincing move to the upside on the daily chart which coincides with the highs from late March before the COVID move south. Open longs once 121 level broken (in line with the green elipse) for profits north of 200 pips up to previous highs of 123.90. Be wary of negative news from EU around upsurges in COVID-19 cases but opening up of lockdown restrictions and upcoming summer travel will stimulate growth in EU and potential risk-on market activity.
by firegenie
EUR/NZD - Long - Bearish Reversal I always like too think the charts don't lie and with the ECB meetings tomorrow all signs point upwards. Although, despite short term success in this diverging channel for NZD that is largely due to the risk on tone across the markets. The top tier 1.82000 resistance is a potential TP with both 100 & 200 day MA looking to diverge for potential change of direction to either side the ECB news could prove a 100+ pip winner by US session. For you oscillator fans the RSI indicates its oversold but further risk on tone could see us move into range from the upside breakout earlier this year. The bearish reversal touching the bottom of the channel points to a test upside.
Long
by darrenkav25
NZDJPY Potentially heading to pre-covid19 levelsTechnically - On a strong resistance --> Hopeful to see slight retest before break up to levels before Covid-19 Fundamentals - Risk on --> Economies around the world are opening up, this will potentially result to selloff in safe havens assets like Japanese Yen and Gold, this will likely result in medium term selloff of JPY against other countries currencies NZD in particular. We are having a medium term bullish bias in the pair
Long
by bluepipsforexsignals
OIL PRICE BULLISH RALLY MUCH EXPECTED TARGET NEAR $40Technically - The price has retested the channel support which implies that there is a possibility for pull back. - Also the momentum is still strong as can be noticed from MACD 4C - The 30 period MA is sloping upward Fundamentally - The economies are opening up from Covid19 pandemic which will likely boost demand and Oil price - On the supply side, the crude inventories are also declining on weekly basis which is also good for oil price. I have initiated a long position at current price with first target around $39.50
TVC:USOILLong
by bluepipsforexsignals
GBP/JPY - Risk On to Start June 2020Don't be fouled by optimistic start to June 2020 be careful of any extension of current rally to the upside with obstacles approaching at 137.000 1. 200 Day - Daily MA (Blue) approaching at present testing the 100 day - Daily MA (Orange). 2. Fib Level at 0.618 will not stop Rally but potential reversal on fundamental pressure from investor attitude and BREXIT spotlight The typical weak performer GBP in the summer months has recouped from low levels of 130.000. However, reopening economies and progressive BREXIT talk will spur the rally above 137.000 Trade idea: 137.000 Entry SL 137.300 dependant on progress of the rally. Failure to beat 100 Day MA could see a short at 136.000 with SL at 136.3000
by darrenkav25
1