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GBP AUD short to complete extension, then buy.Hello analysts and traders. Important updates - we have been holding a short and enjoying the wave ride down to the demand extension zone. The market works in waves - it is incredible. However - we are experiencing at this moment a really nice Fibonacci retracement on the GBP AUD - where AUD is in control more than the GBP despite strong buying net position changes. COT data: Pay attention to the Long positions added back in June. Aussie cot Data - Date Long Short Total %Long%Short Net Change 14/07/20 45,543 41,293 86,836 52% 48% 4,250 4,944 07/07/20 44,740 45,434 90,174 50% 50% -694 2,214 30/06/20 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% -2,908 1,902 23/06/20 35,974 40,784 76,758 47% 53% -4,810 1,722 16/06/20 31,685 38,217 69,902 45% 55% -6,532 30,043 09/06/20 29,912 66,487 96,399 31% 69% -36,575 4,216 GBP COT 14/07/2020 43,175 56,761 99,936 43% 57% -13,586 2,822 07/07/2020 39,892 56,300 96,192 41% 59% -16,408 4,582 30/06/2020 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% -20,990 -2,474 23/06/2020 29,654 48,170 77,824 38% 62% -18,516 -2,518 16/06/2020 29,378 45,376 74,754 39% 61% -15,998 8,050 09/06/2020 28,893 52,941 81,834 35% 65% -24,048 11,996 Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish - monthly also bearish - with a nice - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.715+ for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
US 10 BondsThe US 10 Year Bond is probably the most watched metric used to determine the health of the markets. A drop in yields denotes fear and all risk assets are being sold off. The current chart for the 10 Year Bond looks pretty ugly, but it might make the bears quite happy. We are in a giant descending triangle. The formation within the triangle is a very ugly topping pattern. The chart below is the price action of the 10 Year Bond and it is even more defined and clear. We are approaching the end of the formation. Currently we stand at the edge and a single big red day may mean a continuation of the down trend. Oil and stocks seem to be topping or at meaningful resistance. Does this mean an imminent drop? No. I am no bear and I frankly don't care which way the markets go, but caution is very much advised. A daily close past the respective resistance/support lines will be a giant red flag for risk assets. Precious metals will likely also drop in such a situation as they have been trading similarly to stocks. However, the drop will likely be far less severe than the last one. This is not trading advice, but purely my personal opinion.
TVC:US10Y
by Svetul4o
3
GBP USD - weakness coming as high, lower high formedHello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. what has changed since the last chart? So what is new is that we have had a zone touch and a lower 4hour zone touch. We can see personally a failed touch of the zone, the GBP is staying weak against the dollar with uncertainty of the GBP strength so we will now look to the downside and close out longs. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - long term buys - impulse into the range againHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. Over the end of last week, we saw the Aussie get stronger but was not enough to break through to 1.78 area. so the demand zone still stands and the range is in play and active. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 30,441 54,256 84,697 36% 64% Avg_20 33,958 63,290 97,248 35% 65% Avg_50 39,133 76,363 115,496 34% 66% Avg_130 38,877 76,625 115,502 34% 66% COT data: Pound Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
Dax daily: 15 Jul 2020Yesterday's price action was a great example of the rational behaviour of the market participants. As we mentioned in our analysis yesterday, the zone around 12 592 was important for establishing further price development, with the break outside signifying the continuation in that particular direction. Dax oscillated the entire European session before gaining momentum in the afternoon and we could target our trades to previous day VPOC. That is exactly what happened and Dax closed the day at the fair value with the biggest amount of orders. Important zones Resistance: 12 882 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases NIL Today's session hypothesis Dax opened the day with an ascending gap and the first morning impulse attempts to close the gap. Considering the fact we have the resistance of 12 882 in near vicinity, we're now eying a lovely scenario of closing the gap as it correlates with the VPOC of Monday and then targeting the retest of resistance at 12 882 and possibly break higher. There are no fundamental releases scheduled for Dax today, but the optimism on the US stock markets dominates the market sentiment across the board, even despite the negative echoes of the US-China dealings. Consider it's the earning season too. Should the price get above 12 882, there is a lot of space ahead of us to continue our long bias in the short to the mid-term horizon.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
EURJPY Long after break, close and retest and a move upWe've had a bounce at the 119.50 level and a convincing move to the upside on the daily chart which coincides with the highs from late March before the COVID move south. Open longs once 121 level broken (in line with the green elipse) for profits north of 200 pips up to previous highs of 123.90. Be wary of negative news from EU around upsurges in COVID-19 cases but opening up of lockdown restrictions and upcoming summer travel will stimulate growth in EU and potential risk-on market activity.
by firegenie
EUR/NZD - Long - Bearish Reversal I always like too think the charts don't lie and with the ECB meetings tomorrow all signs point upwards. Although, despite short term success in this diverging channel for NZD that is largely due to the risk on tone across the markets. The top tier 1.82000 resistance is a potential TP with both 100 & 200 day MA looking to diverge for potential change of direction to either side the ECB news could prove a 100+ pip winner by US session. For you oscillator fans the RSI indicates its oversold but further risk on tone could see us move into range from the upside breakout earlier this year. The bearish reversal touching the bottom of the channel points to a test upside.
Long
by darrenkav25
NZDJPY Potentially heading to pre-covid19 levelsTechnically - On a strong resistance --> Hopeful to see slight retest before break up to levels before Covid-19 Fundamentals - Risk on --> Economies around the world are opening up, this will potentially result to selloff in safe havens assets like Japanese Yen and Gold, this will likely result in medium term selloff of JPY against other countries currencies NZD in particular. We are having a medium term bullish bias in the pair
Long
by bluepipsforexsignals
OIL PRICE BULLISH RALLY MUCH EXPECTED TARGET NEAR $40Technically - The price has retested the channel support which implies that there is a possibility for pull back. - Also the momentum is still strong as can be noticed from MACD 4C - The 30 period MA is sloping upward Fundamentally - The economies are opening up from Covid19 pandemic which will likely boost demand and Oil price - On the supply side, the crude inventories are also declining on weekly basis which is also good for oil price. I have initiated a long position at current price with first target around $39.50
TVC:USOILLong
by bluepipsforexsignals
GBP/JPY - Risk On to Start June 2020Don't be fouled by optimistic start to June 2020 be careful of any extension of current rally to the upside with obstacles approaching at 137.000 1. 200 Day - Daily MA (Blue) approaching at present testing the 100 day - Daily MA (Orange). 2. Fib Level at 0.618 will not stop Rally but potential reversal on fundamental pressure from investor attitude and BREXIT spotlight The typical weak performer GBP in the summer months has recouped from low levels of 130.000. However, reopening economies and progressive BREXIT talk will spur the rally above 137.000 Trade idea: 137.000 Entry SL 137.300 dependant on progress of the rally. Failure to beat 100 Day MA could see a short at 136.000 with SL at 136.3000
by darrenkav25
1