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InFiNiTy MoNeY to the rescueSupport retested, zone under the green green block proven to be a strong buy zone. Bitcoin pumped on news that the U.S. Fed will be buying anything: www.cnbc.com U.S. equities pumped in pre-market too, but retraced rather quickly. It's a bullish sign that bitcoin did not slink back under support following the news pump. Things I am wary of: - Bitmain 03/27 $5000 euro-style bitcoin puts - March 31st Mt. Gox repayment plan deadline involving 140000 bitcoin - Daily close under support - COVID-19 affecting market sentiment - Oil price war causing unpredictable fluctuations in US dollar's value (but can it get any much lower?)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by NeoButane
ridethepig | Switched Sides On Gold!A masterclass performance from buyers, well done all those holding longs from 1250 and 1350... I know many here who have been riding the pig, that have kept working longs because the market said it worked and it paid! This has been one of the easiest rides in Gold in all my years of trading, the easy part of the rally is now finished. We are coming to the end of "Santanomics": Profit taking will begin and with that it was time to begin unwinding all remaining longs and time to cover with shorts. The blind retail coming in and buying this expecting it to go up forever when smart money have been miles ahead, we are just taking profits and switching sides...my regular readers will know this is the first sell idea i've posted in Gold in years... In any case, a flawless example of a swing to the topside throughout 2019. All targets are cleared and hit with the only exception being 1700 although this looks far away now considering profit taking has already begun. On the technical side, 1700 is acting as steel resistance above and should cap the highs unless we get panic via coronavirus (not expected till later in the year). The targets to the downside come into fruition at 1600, 1592 and to a lot lesser of an extent 1512 although is currently out of scope. Fading the exhaustion here seems tactical. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
14
DXY: Market OverviewThe leading indicator has already pointed out exhausted bullish. Technically talking we all can see dxy has extended a lot high due to some past week greenback power over most of its counterparts. Last week it was an almost risk-off market situation where safe haven did most well and the case dollar been dragging most of its counterpart creating some bullish momentum on dxy. The situation doesn't seem well for dxy bulls at this point when we saw a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern which indicating bearish momentum gradually increasing at the market. To consider properly we know how pound, euro, Aussie (mainly) and kiwi trying to lead over greenback at the moment and overall market risk sentiment changed when NY trader entered the market. I assume if the market player avoids risk aversion and gets nasty over chasing risky assets then counterparts of greenback may perform well especially those comdolls and which will eventually help dxy bears to drag the price further lower. Technically we can see stoch did hang around a couple of times in its overbought zone but finally it leaves the 80 zone!
TVC:DXY
by Anatta0
Weekly Fundamental Update (Mon Jan 27, 2020)Weekly Fundamental Update This last week ended with a noteworthy sell off seen towards the end of the week and it was a broad sell-off not specific, which is more accurate of risk-based movement a cross the financial markets rather than a specific impact from the target region (Asia) or asset class. Consideration of risk these days is important. The backing of value in its classical form has given way to an extreme amount of complacency; fueled by the bulls (buy-high, sell-higher). Being flexible to trade the markets bias and not the news is critical towards spotting opportunities in not only multiple timeframes but also across different asset classes. Your risk- tolerance should be in the front of your mind going into this next week. The most noteworthy topic last week was growth. Even though the GDP proxies that many people point to PMI’s have their flaws, they remain the leading key forward-looking indicator without any better solution. Generally speaking, they reflect the same figures as what the government published. In particular, this week’s Eurozone government-based GDP readings will be updated. This will be interesting considering the GDP from South Korea (worst since 2008) and China (worst in 29 years). Looking at the 10’s minus the 3-mo’s U.S. bonds you would assume that growth as far as a catalyst ended up with a weak footed bias. However, when you look at the PMI’s themselves, here’s how they stood. - JPY: +0.9 to 49.3 - NZD: -0.1% - EUR: +1.2 - Australia’s figures softened however the Japanese numbers improved. The number is still below 50 (indicative of a retraction), however its improvement was above 50 (an expansion). - Germany: A bigger than expected uptick, however still not above 50 - U.K.: A significant boost, manufacturing and services improving and shared burden 47.t to 49.8 - U.S.: Manufacturing ticked lower from52.4 to 51.7 (still above 50) Overall this data would be an improvement in growth. This didn’t reflect in the yield spread last week and risk-aversion was obvious. Now, what’s motivating this? If it’s something that we can identify than it’s something that most traders who consider fundamentals are all watching. I would define the complacency in the channel in the DOW, NASDAQ, or the SPX. These are the best performing asset classes in general, and especially in the last 12 months (U.S. equities vs rest of world equities (VEU)). The pullback yesterday almost hit the -1% mark, but the SPX was down 0.9%. This was a decline that was the biggest since October, but it’s also been 72 trading days without a 1% drop or advance. This is something that is considerable and can be directly reflected in the subdued volatility of the VIX. The next 1% move I think will be down, not up considering the current over extension of the longer-term bull run for the U.S. equity market. The top event risk this week depends on how we are surprised with scheduled events this week. The risk perspective will be a principle driver and I will be watching tomorrow during the N.Y. session to see how the current levels (which are at channel floors established since October 19) Event risk: The official GDP figures this week: Mexico and the U.S. on Thurs and the Eurozone on Friday. This will affect the EUR/USD and other U.S. dollar pairs. Given how quiet things have been on the Euro, I think it will reflect volatility seen in other cross pairs. Earnings: Tech, manufactures, goods etc. C onsumer confidence sentiment: worth highlighting, because of the impact is has the U.S. elections (second tax cut, and trade war resolutions) Monetary Policy: The Fed decision is the top priority this week for event risk. Higher levels of inflation is expected from Australia. There is also rumors based on the REPO/ swap market that the BOE will cut interest rates. The fed will release its forecast for 2020 and their “review” of their effectiveness of monetary policy (targeting 2% inflation vs QE as a standard tool vs. risk of high-leverage exposure to future crises) could raise questions of the ineffectiveness of monetary policy and its low rates and benchmark yields regarding solvency. This probability is low and it’s seen in the Fed Funds Futures contracts. You can’t write off the risk though, because if it comes to fruition it can overwhelm other fundamental themes. 03:11:43 (UTC) Mon Jan 27, 2020 ©2020
TVC:DXY
by TayFx
1
Gold stalled out, markets risk-on, flirting with edge of rangeWith the markets going increasingly risk-on, any bullish price movement in gold is suspect. So far this year it's had a strong rally out of that accumulation zone, but soon we should see whether it was a simple fakeout or a continuation move to new highs. Gold is still at risk of giving back all gains received in Q3 2018 if he fails this range completely. Right now we have a simple "bear flag within bull flag" structure that may want to suck in some buyers around the 1490 level and potentially all the way up until 1500 (would certainly generate media attention). Not rushing into a short position just yet but some good opportunities could be around the corner
TVC:GOLDShort
by Carlito101
ORBEX: Will the US Avoid A Gov Shutdown This Year?In this market insights, I talk about the reason #FX Majors were muted; on the back of a shift to riskier assets i.e. the equities I dive into euro, pound, dollar and the safe-haven yen to provide you with my short-term analysis. I also talk about what to focus on for the rest of the week and with crunch talks around the allocation of US’s $1.3tn spending continuing, it is certainly going to be an interesting one as fears of another shutdown linger! Timestamps for each pair: EURUSD 1H 01:30 USDJPY 1H 03:40 GBPUSD 1H 05:00 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
USDJPY Potential CTL RetestI’ll be watching UJ along with US Equities & Gold to gauge whether or not this setup is truly risk off. Ultimately, it is likely to bounce before a larger countertrend move to the downside. If no immediate rejection from the zone identified takes place, shorts could get rekt. Whether up or down, a setup should materialize. Short term bullish, medium term bearish is what I’m thinking. Side note: We have Cheeto Bandito in the Whitehouse with dusty hand puppet Jerome Powell going absolute full send hyperinflation (QE )straight into equity futures.
Long
by bryanrg
1
ORBEX: USDJPY Could be Heading For Wave 3 Completion Higher!USDJPY could move higher towards the 1.618x Fibonacci extension of the latest bullish minute pattern started on 107.88. This would validate the recent breakout above 109.32 as well as the intermediate degree structure which has a medium-term target near 114.55. The pair, however, could have just ended the intermediate move to the upside at the 2x Fibonacci extension near 109.62. That would assume that the last upside move from 106.50 upwards is an ending triangle, and that the current intermediate degree labeling is invalid! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
CADJPY Might Attempt A Move Upwards To Around 84.000 Area!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Long
by FX618Analysis
CABLE Could Test 1.2700 Level After Support Break!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
ORBEX:GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD - Exit Or Extension? Trudeau Wins!In today’s #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD, #EURUSD and #USDCAD! Another failed Johnson attempt to get Parliamentarians to vote supports the #pound as now chances of an extension increase! Both an October exit (highly unlikely) or an extension could see mainly #pound and in a smaller degree #euro gain. Meanwhile, in Canada Trudeau won the elections again! This is likely to weigh on technicals more as fiscals are going to remain unchanged.. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex