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Riskonriskoff

DXY I Still have the DXY in the expanded Flat with a top in at $107 which happens to be the fib retracement 50% level of the 5 down wave A. I expect the momentum indicators to begin to slowly roll over. RSI, Stochastic RSI , OBV , MACD should all confirm the last leg of the down trend wave C which I expect to finish around $94. At $94 the DXY should complete a very HTF wave 4 and then kick off what is shaping up to be one ugly recession. W5 targets for DXY run over $130 and I don't think much will survive this risk off trade set up. This is likely what many analysts are referring to as the "Blow off Top" to which I find myself reluctantly agreeing with since all my charts keep leading me down this rabbit hole. ;)
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Big_Mike716
$DXY Correction?The DXY has been on a rip in 2022 with the US Dollar rising significantly against major currencies. This channel has been pretty consistent and the latest price point is at the peak of it. A strong DXY tends to correlate with weak stocks and risk on assets. Vice versa, a correction here would provide some relief for the markets and currency pairs such as the EUR and GBP which have been in free fall this year. I'm not convinced the DXY breaks that upper resistance here, especially with the mid terms around the corner. I'd expect a correction and then the macro / risk on/off environment will determine whether the price rebounds nearer the bottom of the channel. I'm mid to long term bearish on the economy therefore I don't believe we've seen the top of this DXY run. Nevertheless, those trading short term may find value in this price action and correlation.
TVC:DXY
by Zeahl_Capital
DXY UPDATE USD has broke above the key 108-109 multi year resistance with a strong bullish impulse, price is now correcting to retest the zone as support, if it holds as support and continues to rally on NFP data RISK assets will get hit hard. The other scenario is if the support fails and price breaks back below this will confirm the breakout is a fake move and DXY will correct, in this case risk assets will have a positive reaction. Remember we cant control the outcome we have to be prepared with entries in either direction and react to what the market shows us, less than 2 hours to go until NFP.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by ITSCRYPTO1
1
RISK ON vs RISK OFF ‼️Risk-on risk-off is an investment setting in which price behavior responds to and is driven by changes in investor risk tolerance. Risk-on risk-off refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patterns. During periods when risk is perceived as low, the risk-on risk-off theory states that investors tend to engage in higher-risk investments. When risk is perceived to be high, investors have the tendency to gravitate toward lower-risk investments. RISK ON - is when investor are looking to multiply their money, they are looking for RISK. MORE RISK - MORE MONEY RISK OFF - is when investors are looking to keep/save their money, they are looking to protect more than to RISK. MORE PROTECTION - LESS MONEY
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
RISK ON vs RISK OFFI tried to show you in this example what is the difference between risk on and risk off, what financial instrumnets rise during times of finacial stress aka risk off and what instruments rise during time of financial optimism aka risk on. RISK ON - is when investor are looking to multiply their money, they are looking for RISK. MORE RISK - MORE MONEY RISK OFF - is when investors are looking to keep/save their money, they are looking to protect more than to RISK. MORE PROTECTION - LESS MONEY P.S - Where do you think CRYPTOCURRENCY market goes? Into a RISK ON or RISK OFF financial instrument ? Comment below
TVC:VIXEducation
by AnonimFXRO
3
What on Earth does Risk-On / Risk-Off Mean?If you have been hearing people say things like "The market is in risk-on mode today" and you have no idea what the hell they are on about, then read this. TLDR: Risk-On means that in general, the winds are fair for the market. Market participants feel that there is no real bad news around, economies are running along quite nicely, thank you. Risk-Off means there is either some nervousness or even a panic. When looking at the equity market's Risk-On / Risk-Off status, amazingly, people look at the major currencies for the clue. This may not seem intuitive, but here's why: There are 8 major currencies. Some of them are "commodity currencies". These are CAD (Oil), AUD (minerals mining) and NZD (foodstuffs). When the world economy is rockin', these states to sell and their tax receipts go up, and the rest of the world needs to own their currency to buy their goods. So, their currencies appreciate. Also lumped in with them (certainly for me) is GBP, as the United Kingdom sells services to the world like accountancy, and these services are in more demand when the world is in good shape. So, that gives 4 major Risk-On currencies. There are also 4 Risk-Off currencies. USD, JPY, CHF and (more and more) EUR. These 4 are seen as "reserve" currencies, "safe havens" in a storm, especially USD. When the smelly stuff hits the fan, nervous people sell their CADs and AUDs etc and run for safety. All the safe currencies rally and the commodity currencies sag. Take a look at March 2020, Pandemic hits: Equities traders running around with their pants on the heads, and the "reserve" currencies rally. The indicator used in this chart is freely available in my profile. It might be used to indicate the overbought or oversold nature of the two sets of currencies, to help index and equities traders.
UEducation
by Paul_Varcoe
1
AUDJPY - I've got a plan...!Happy Weekend! However, the grind never stops. This is a good R/R trade, depends on how you trade the idea and your plan but it is best you stick to your trade plan. Technical view: AUDJPY - Daily Support: 82.955, 82.405, 82.110, 81.200 Resistance: 84.180, 84.444, 84.865, 85.415 Pattern: Wedge - Double top How to trade this idea: For further confirmation that may suit your plan is see the break out of wedge or candle close on key support areas of 82,110 areas, then trade the pull back towards the next support areas which may match Fib Retracement area. (A break below 50 EMA) If you're interested in FX weekly: Week ahead review on various instruments, comment or message privately. Have a great week ahead. Mind Capital Just trade ideas, not recommendations
Short
by MINDCAPITAL
2
AUDJPY - Trade Idea! Good morning Traders! Some get excited for the weekend but I get most excited for the Monday mornings! On the weekends I do get up early on Saturday - Morning routine and I did my analysis. I got something special for you this weekend - There will be a video coming out this weekend going through major pairs for the week ahead - We are in for a treat all of us! If you'd like access to the week ahead video - Message privately or simply comment down below. Technical Aspect AUDJPY 1HR: Pattern: Descending triangle formation Support: 79.750, 79.530, 79.230 Resistance: 80.185, 80.275, 80.375 How to approach this trade idea: - Look for pull back towards the resistance areas taking it down towards the great support areas! - 50 & 200 EMA are great resistance zones - Want a better price? Go towards lower time frame perhaps 15Mins chart for intraday trade - finding a what fits your plan to get into a short. Key Tip: Follow your own trade plan, the analysis I provide you is just a guidance - add your own creative aspects towards trading to add further confluence and confidence. Thank you for the comments & messages received, really grateful for the great positive trading community! Have a great week ahead Trade Journal (Just trading Idea, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
EURUSD - Counter trend trade idea! EURUSD - Counter-trend trade opportunity! Hello, It really feels good to be back in-front of my desk! I unfortunately had a very dismal start of the year but I am back and ready to smash this year and to post trade ideas on a more regular basis! If you have any trades you'd like me to go over - Message down below or private message. It's free! Now, Last week - I did miss out the great DXY strength we got - " SQUEEZED!". But, as I always say - the market is full of beautiful opportunities, really does depend on your patience. EUR - COULD Head down towards 1.20 and perhaps 1.19/1.18 before a further increase to areas of resistance: 1.25 - 1.34 - 1.40! Resistance Areas: 1.22210 - 1.22415 Support Areas: 1.21660 - 1.21200 - 1.20810 Pattern wise: Descending wedge formation broke out, any pull back towards 50 EMA would find a reaction of resistance. Measuring the pattern - target = 1.20800 Areas. Please do remember, this is a counter-trend trade idea. For those Dollar bears - Yeah I agree Medium/Longer term I am of course bearish the dollar but I do really like a good risk/reward towards my trades and if we do head towards 1.20 and lower I will be of course buying into EUR further more towards longer term resistance areas. Key Tip: Follow your own trade plan and execute wisely with the correct risk management. Have a great week ahead. All the best, Trade Journal (TJ) Remember: Just a trade idea, not a recommendation.
by Trade_Journal
EUR USD vs DXY - shortHello Traders and analysts, We are currently in sells - Here is our take on EUR USD - weekly chart We added the DXY for reference in Blue The eyes - are sell targets The eyes - are potential buy zones. it depends on your outlook. The US - will be pivotal for investors during the election process. EU - concerned about over valued currency in 2020 as they look to unwind the Brexit divorce. Looking at the key markings, the blue level shows us a strong monthly top - where price will look to either retest or fall back to 1.10 - a most likely scenario, with the probabilities in play. DXY- if the euro attempts 1.19 area, the DXY will respond to 92.XX and then push up. We tend to hold trades for a while and de-risk in terms of leverage - this is important. It is also crucial to ignore ideas which conflict against the trading plan set out. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
AUD/USD + RISK ON SENTIMENT⭐️Key Takeaways⭐️ ✔️ AUDUSD is that risk-on sentiment currency - should monitor SPX for correlations. ✔️ Gold continues to maintain it's bull run but struggled to break above $2000. A correction is gold could signal strength with the buck. ✔️ Small timeframe rounding top action but could transition into a gartley pattern ⭐️Technical Analysis⭐️ As long as the US continues to see a rise in COVID19 cases, we should expect to continue to see further USD weakness. AUDUSD on the daily showing clear divergence with RSI. Seems like this divergence theme is getting pretty played out by now as we've seen divergence across the board for several weeks now with zero follow through. Ascending support maintains with this pair. Next critical upside resistance level is around the 0.73 handle. If we manage to break below the ascending support, that could open up further downside as the USD enters its correction phase to the upside. Downside levels of support to look out for include 70, 69 and 68 handles. Regards, Michael Harding RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this video are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
SP:SPX
by Michael_Harding
XAG USD clear path to 26+Hello traders & analysts, Here is out latest update for Silver . We are bullish and would like to share our out look for the next opportunities which can take place. Now we have hit 21.00 - expect some resistance to occur - why? This is due to the barrier to be broken through. We will now anticipate the next target of 26.00 at 20.5 we closed 200 units to cash in 450pips - great partial take! COT data: Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 62,368 28,887 91,255 69% 31% Avg_20 61,214 26,449 87,663 70% 30% Avg 50 83,059 35,629 118,688 70% 30% Avg_130 84,123 36,227 120,349 70% 30% Technically what has happened? Price was severely undervalued and silver is an important commodity to use for manufacturing sectors. Commodity currencies rely on this as an export factor e.g. CAD, AUD, MXN, ZAR , RUB, NZD. We had a great wedge pattern where we entered on a nice engulfing daily candle which broke to the upside. Price has hit a nice supply zone at 18.3-18.9 zone. The price in this area can reject and retrace which is an option we are looking for; however keep in mind the bullish structure, price has alot of upside potential. If price rejects, we will look for a nice clean break from the zone and hedge. Fundamentals: Coronavirus re-opening of industries and subsequent purchase power of retailers. Fear commodity but less attractive than Gold and platinum. Cheap metal but gains are very high and attractive China vs USA trade war Australia vs China mini trade war. Mexico has large coronavirus numbers but largest producer of silver . Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - Risk on scenario Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - Risk on or risk off?Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
by LupaCapital
EUR/NZD - Long - Bearish Reversal I always like too think the charts don't lie and with the ECB meetings tomorrow all signs point upwards. Although, despite short term success in this diverging channel for NZD that is largely due to the risk on tone across the markets. The top tier 1.82000 resistance is a potential TP with both 100 & 200 day MA looking to diverge for potential change of direction to either side the ECB news could prove a 100+ pip winner by US session. For you oscillator fans the RSI indicates its oversold but further risk on tone could see us move into range from the upside breakout earlier this year. The bearish reversal touching the bottom of the channel points to a test upside.
Long
by darrenkav25
GBP/JPY - Risk On to Start June 2020Don't be fouled by optimistic start to June 2020 be careful of any extension of current rally to the upside with obstacles approaching at 137.000 1. 200 Day - Daily MA (Blue) approaching at present testing the 100 day - Daily MA (Orange). 2. Fib Level at 0.618 will not stop Rally but potential reversal on fundamental pressure from investor attitude and BREXIT spotlight The typical weak performer GBP in the summer months has recouped from low levels of 130.000. However, reopening economies and progressive BREXIT talk will spur the rally above 137.000 Trade idea: 137.000 Entry SL 137.300 dependant on progress of the rally. Failure to beat 100 Day MA could see a short at 136.000 with SL at 136.3000
by darrenkav25
1
AUDUSD: breaking out of ascending wedgeAUDUSD is breaking out of ascending wedge, which might indicate a correction move downside and a risk-on scenario. Aussie is currently trading around 17% higher since march lows and pretty much correlated with bullish sentiment in equity market. The first support level can be found around 0.6250-06270 price, which is between 0.23-0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. After breaking that zone, the price can continue going lower to around 0.6040 level. Fundamentally, I still think that we are going to see lower level in equities (or at least a correction move lower), thus lower price in AUDUSD as well. Joining bears from around 0.64700 price with S/L above 0.66000 and T/P around 0.60400 provides decent R/R. // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated + support my work by hitting like.)
Short
by GIgor_021
Gold down as risk on prevailsGold reached an all-time high earlier this week as it cleared the $1,750 level. It was able to reach bids at $1,765 before the US trading station started for the week. However, this rally was not sustainable as Risk on prevailed as Moderna reported positive data on early-stage coronavirus vaccine trial. Gold retracted back down to $1,725 today as Risk on sentiment prevails in the market, most notably in the oil market. Both WTI and Brent Crude reach highs since the start of the coronavirus breaching $34 and $37, respectively, as demand for oil slowly picks up around the world. Both commodities have been susceptible to the Risk on / Risk off a dynamic that has been playing out in the markets recently. The SP500 has been stuck in a consolidation zone since the end of April, with Investors / Traders gripping onto any good news with regards to any advancements to Coronavirus vaccines. Gold has been experiencing similar consolidation patterns as market sentiment shows genuine uncertainty with the future of the economy and global trade. This creates strong support and resistance lines within the consolidation zones that traders may trade with relative reliability. A breach of these supports and resistance may show strong positive/negative news with regards to Coronavirus vaccines. On quieter news days, traders may use these support and resistance lines for hourly and 4 hourly reversals. However, fundamentally we may see a retest of the $1,750 level again as Tensions between the United States and Australia towards China increase. Furthermore, the possibility of a second wave is still not out of the question, and many more disappointing results with regards to Coronavirus trials are highly likely. However, CEO Pascal Soriot of AstraZeneca, a pharmaceutical company, stated that they are confident that there is a good reason for vaccine trials to work. Are you bullish on Gold?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets