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Riskonriskoff

AUDJPY: Return of Risk On Trades?AUDJPY Timeframe: 1D Direction: Long Confluences for Trade: - Price action bouncing off Support of Parallel Channel - Stochastic Oversold momentum (D1 and W1) - Wide gap between EMAs - Price action created a double bottom around Parallel Channel support line - Fundamentally, there is positivity in sentiment moving into the coming 2019 which will see a dollar weakening scenario and AUD will gain from positive sentiment from global outlook being moderate instead of weakening tremendously. Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 77.45 - 78.45 SL: 76.81 TP: 80.44 RR: Approx. 2.18 (Depending on Entry Level) May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D *This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Long
by weekendanalyst
IS YEN REALLY RISK-OFF AND CORRELATED TO SPX (RISK-ON)?Though id post as just one example, perhaps the most obvious, that shows how heavily the JPY is considered a risk-off asset and to show the clearly, since the SPX is a risk-on asset, that the JPY is negatively correlated with the SPX. In times of market fear/ uncertainty, YEN is sought out, just like bonds and gold, as a safe heaven asset. The theory behind this is that the JPY offers stability through the nation being one of the only developed nation with a net credit balance sheet. Clearly, in the financial crisis, one with a hypothesis as the above, should see the SPX fall and the YEN risk.. Indeed, the chart shows exacty that, almost 1:1 correlation. Now, the JPY SPX correlation DOES change, in times of extreme fear or extreme exuberance, the YEN will be proportionately more correlated with the SPX and other risk assets. . In "Normal" or non heavily trending markets, the correlation is less obvious - since it is the extremes that cause investors to seek difference assets and change their strategy in masses. In times of fear, investors move their liquidity to risk-off YEN, hence we see USDJPY fall during the crisis. We also see SPX fall in a correlated manner, this is because investors pull their liquidity OUT of SPX and apply it in some proportion to YEN.
by QuantumLogicTrading
FINALLY! GOLD COMPLETES THE RISK-OFF *3* - !SHORT EQUITIES!Finally Gold completes the market risk-off 3 for rallying... we not have JPY, BONDS and GOLD all rallying - this completes the set of 3 -riskoff indicators, we are now in full bear mode for stock markets imo.. as you can tell from the US Treasuries and JPY, these riskoff assets have been gaining value for some time, gold has been lagging behind but today following a poor NFP print but STRONG Unemployment print. IMO gold is rallying higher as the probability for a fed hike becomes higher since unemployment is their target measure along with inflation (and not NFP as some will believe). with all 3 riskoff assets rallying this means there CANNOT be enough liquidity in the market to push risk assets (SPX/NAS100/DJ30) to new highs as well - its all but a 0 sum game - the liquidity to push JPY BONDS and GOLD higher MUST have come from risk assets. I believe this will be the end of the modest bull run for equities #downwego probably starting next week. A movement lower in equities at his point is well served - we have many high risk events coming up and i believe people will be getting out of risk and into safety starting next week given 1: fed on the 16th 2. brexit on the 23rd and also BOJ on the 16th (along with a slew of other Central banks also due to declare their monetary policy). Given the above uncertainties/ Risks NOW seems a perfect time for investors to flee to safety and for the SPX to follow suit 5-10% lower in the coming weeks. As per my previous articles this answers all of the questions, we now have enough uncertainty momentum to push gold UP and stocks down IMO.. the paradoxical bonds/jpy AND stocks higher will come to an end in the coming days with STOCKS selling off for at least 4 weeks. PLease see the attached articles for more information.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by QuantumLogicTrading