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Riskreward

USDCAD Post-FOMC/Oil ReportsThe Canadian Dollar had a really strong year against the US dollar correlating nicely with the DXY. After FOMC reports however, the Dollar continues to dig itself out of the hole it was in late 2020 and pairs with the dollar as the dominant, such as FX:USDCAD , have started to experience some upward momentum that I expect to continue for the next few days as North American Oil availability appears grim likely hiking the rate per barrel, ultimately pushing down the value of North and South American currencies (exception of the USD, I'll get to that). With this in mind, a safe entry is created on USDCAD as there is some relatively tight downside protection/cushion with this information in the market. The devaluation (dare I say inflation) of the US dollar is what makes this trade possible. If it wouldn't of been as prepared for the worse, prior to FOMC and bad oil news, the DXY would most likely have continued to see a downfall. However, the perfect storm of a declining stock market, "less economic scarring", and the decline in Bitcoin, maybe the Dollar has found its floor? Maybe not, but for the next month or two I will look to retain this bias.
Long
by crawfordpaul
Still riding the wave #forexThe beauty of swing trading (especially with a rules based strategy) is the potential for great risk reward ratios over long periods. Now obviously risk/reward ratios can be applied to any time frame but swing trading allows you to capture much larger gains over a set time period and are easier to manage. Let me use this trade taken back on October 21 as an example. It was a range trade that risked 130 pips, and when nzd/cad was at its highs, the risk/reward ratio was over 4 and the net gain was nearly 500 pips. If I was trading on a smaller time frame looking for the same risk/reward ratio but lets say the gain would be 30-40 pips, I would had to be right 13-17 times (over the same 3 month period) to get to 500 pips in profit. Because market timing on any time frame is so difficult, it is much easier to be right once and let time and trend work in your favor then to try to be right 17 times.
by IngenuityTrading
4
EOS/USDT Active!Hello Community! Before we begin please support my idea with a thumbs up and a comment. It'll be greatly appreciated and will motivate me to post a little more! Lets keep it simple. When taking a look at EOS / USDT on the Daily TF, we can see it trading back in a parallel channel I drew out in a previous post. It is currently making a go at the top of the channel and if it breaks out decisively we can expect to see a nice run to the next resistance drawn out, which is about 20%. This is a very active coin that seems to not shy away from 20% movements frequently. With that being said. If it fails to go through the channel I can see a move to retest the bottom, and you can guess that percentage or just look at my chart. lol This is not Financial advice. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect!! Simplicity Wins
by rnaofs
2
[Risk Management trick] Tilting the "Math" in your favor!We all try to find the strategies which offer best possible win probabilities. Yet, we often overlook another crucial component of increasing your odds of winning => risk management. Today, I am going to show you how you can use a simple risk management trick to tilt the "Math" in your favor. Would you like to increase the output of your strategy by 25% without doing anything extra? Imagine a 3R win suddenly increasing to 3.75R with no change in the strategy at all. Consider this trade... We are trying to setup a sell trade with a very defined -1R risk and +3R profit. If we were to loose this trade, we will loose 1% of our capital - and if we win, we will make 3% in return (3RR). Here, we assumed that we'll exit the trade when price moves -1R completely against us. What if, we pivot our thinking and assume the trade is lost when price has moved -0.8R : because if the trade goes that much against you, there's a very high probability that it'll hit your stop loss too. There is no reason to pretend that it can still turn around at the last moment. Murphy's law truly applies here - "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong". If we do really pivot our thinking, lets see how it works in our favor! The Stop loss is now updated and set at -0.8R So a win will still give us the same 3%, but the loss will only wipe out -0.8% from our account. Now because our profit targets are still setup as per the original 1% trade, you can now see that we now get this extra reward if our trade hits its original 3R target The moment we draw 3R as per our new -0.8R stop loss, we get this - You can see how the 3R with -0.8R stop loss is achieved much before than the 3R with -1R stop loss (obviously)! That means, the extra reward you got when the trade reached your original 3R - is additional profit which you now have - without ever changing your trading strategy! 3/0.8 = 0.75 (which is 25% of your original 3R target) 0.75/3 = 25% You now have extra an 25% reward for free! New RR = 3.75 This is a very beautiful math equation for yet another reason! Imagine you lost your trade with a -0.8R => the additional 0.75R you will achieve (for free) from another trade will extremely quickly cover up anything you lost. As you can see, we can really use sound risk management techniques & Math to our benefit. This is called : Tilting the "Math" in your favor!
Education
by makuchaku
155
FTSE100 - UKX - WHERE TO NEXT?FTSE100 UKX - Range Bound - WHERE TO NEXT? Technical View: Resistance: 6782.5, 6823.0, 6900.5 Support: 6677.7, 6627.6, 6610.9, 6535.8 (200EMA) Pattern: Multiple formation Bull Flag / Triangle Formation How to approach this trade idea: - Add alerts at key break out areas - Wait for the break out and trade the pull back - Check the key Fibs matching S&R Areas - Don't forget to gain a good R/R - Add limit orders to break out areas, bit more of risky approach as you don't want be part of fake break out! Go with what you have written on your trade plan overall. It's FRIDAY....! On a Friday - I take day trades, review my journal and get ready for the week ahead. It hasn't been bad week very choppy markets we are in range bound areas in most assets apart from Crypto's great momentum towards down side I always say in life and in the markets - What goes up, comes down eventually. Now it doesn't mean you're going to become profitable trader and come down - NO! What I mean is, your performance isn't going to be straight line there will be days up and down and let be honest with you - I don't always trade everyday because I know when I want to be part of the market, be disciplined! It does depends on way you mange your portfolio. Have a great weekend. Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
U
by Trade_Journal
AUDJPY - Great R/R Trade Idea!AUDJPY Technical view: Pattern: Descending wedge Support: 80.185, 80.005, 79.815, 79.605 Resistance: 80.520, 80.660, 80.845 Bearish Confirmation Below: 80.185 How to approach the trade idea: - Follow your trade plan - Add an order where you think a confirmed break below would be - Checking the sentiment of the market for further conviction - Wait for break out, and trade the pull back Fundamentals: ECB : I don't think there will be any significant movement within ECB meeting there are few areas I will be keeping an eye if mentioned: - Biden ( inflation factors) - Political stance in Italy - Extension of lockdowns - Vaccination - Exchange Rate of EUR Jobless Claims : Wall street Vs Main street. I've had few people message in past weeks and days questions along lines of: How do you keep going even when the trade is against you? & How did you not quit? My answer: Be humble enough to let your ego go within trading, that's what a stoploss is there for, journal your trades to know what went wrong follow your own trade plan you don't always need multiple amount of indicators, stay disciplined to become the trader you want to become. It's not an over night success - I like the quote: First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. The reality is - The market owes you nothing at all, and the best set up are those you have the patience with rather than rushing into. Surround yourself with community (Network) around you not social media community but a professional community, that most likely will cost. All the best, Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
BTCUSD 7.6/1 RRCOINBASE:BTCUSD looks about ready to move back up. For many investors these low swings have been a blessing in disguise and there is no drop that isn't quickly met with a sharp rally. Bitcoin has been searching for a floor, slowly making new lows but 34k has been manipulated heavily and there seems to be no reason that bitcoin couldn't crack it, but I do not believe there is enough supply in the market for it to achieve such a feat again. I could see it rapidly making its way back up to 35k and potentially clawing back up to 40k if the conditions are right.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by crawfordpaul
2
ADBE - Follow up - Getting ready to rallyOn my previous post a few days ago, I highlighted this orange zone from which a bounce is highly likely if the primary count is correct. Today we are seeing it go up with other mega caps. Right now it look like it's making a 5 wave advance which would be a great bullish sign but we only have 3 waves up for now. I already have a position here but I will look to add to it if we get 5 waves up followed by a correction lower which needs to remain above 453.2 !
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
1
EURNZD Breakout PlayEURNZD showing signs of our market structure. Has had multiple lower highs swings, and then momentum became to exhaust. A reversal of the trend has triggered. The 1.6962 zone was resistance. The breakout occurred, and then price pulled back to retest. The last 4 hour candle close indicated that buyers are stepping in, and a higher low has been confirmed. I am targeting the 1.71 zone for my first target. We could make another swing depending on how price reacts at that level. Placing my stop loss below the retest, and targeting 1.71 gives me close to a 1:3 risk vs reward ratio.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
ZI - Ready to get going It's been a while but looks like it's getting ready for a move higher now. But, if this updated count is to be correct, we will see only one push higher before seeing it pullback again, since it seems we got a Triangle here. For those among you who are not familiar with the Elliott Wave Theory, know that Triangle corrections occur in the position prior to the final actionnary wave in the pattern of one larger degree. Meaning, we will see a wave C higher and then correct most of, if not all, of this ABC rise. Note that wave C often is equal to 61.8%, 100% or 161.8% of wave A. This gives potential targets at 55$, 65$ and 85$. I don't think the 55$ a big hurdle to overcome, we have to primarly focus on the 65$ which is also the all time high for this stock.
NASDAQ:ZILong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
3
ZI - Continuing higher if support holds, else down to 35/38We're in a decision point here. If support holds , we should see a small base form and price continue to go higher , in which case you can buy on a break out of the consolidation. If we do break below support , chances increase for this to be a Flat correction and should therefore see price go down to the marked support zone. Here's an idealised Flat correction Note that here are different types/names of Flats depending of where wave C end. Look it up if you want to learn a bit more.
NASDAQ:ZILong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
1
EURUSD - Consolidation before resuming higher one last time !EURUSD - With my memebers, we got out of this pair on 17th December because I thought pink wave 5 of orange wave iii was done and we met our target zone. Seems like I was slightly off since we got an Ending Diagonal which now came to an end it seems. We now should have started potential orange wave iv which might unfold as a Triangle which is usually the case for waves 4 but it can very well be any other corrective pattern. Support is around 1.2130 here at the Diagonal wave (2) low down to pink wave 4 low at 1.2060. Intraday you can look to short this but if it's not your style of trading, simply stay out of this until orange wave iv comes to an end. FIY : Waves 4 are the trickiest and are a real pain to trade. So, best is to leave this pair alone because it will only frustrate you!
by ElliottWaveBelgium
1
SOME USEFUL TIPS FOR NEW TRADERS here are some tips for newbies. One thing, I want to say again and again don't rush in trading it's not a quick-rich scheme remember that. and every newbie needs to gain knowledge first about markets than most important part risk/money management need to learn because they r so important. Most newbies come into existence and think they have gone to use big leverage in one trade and they gone to be 100% right and gone to rick quick don't think in that way. u not gone to be 100% right all the time. remember u also gone to be face losses as well even experienced traders lose money but because of their money management they able to small their losses and when they win they big win. hope u understand what I mean who earned that GOOD LUCK. I will most more content for newbies so they can get the right path. thanks for reading :)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by THELEGENDSINGH