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Riskreward

EOS/USDT Active!Hello Community! Before we begin please support my idea with a thumbs up and a comment. It'll be greatly appreciated and will motivate me to post a little more! Lets keep it simple. When taking a look at EOS / USDT on the Daily TF, we can see it trading back in a parallel channel I drew out in a previous post. It is currently making a go at the top of the channel and if it breaks out decisively we can expect to see a nice run to the next resistance drawn out, which is about 20%. This is a very active coin that seems to not shy away from 20% movements frequently. With that being said. If it fails to go through the channel I can see a move to retest the bottom, and you can guess that percentage or just look at my chart. lol This is not Financial advice. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect!! Simplicity Wins
by rnaofs
2
[Risk Management trick] Tilting the "Math" in your favor!We all try to find the strategies which offer best possible win probabilities. Yet, we often overlook another crucial component of increasing your odds of winning => risk management. Today, I am going to show you how you can use a simple risk management trick to tilt the "Math" in your favor. Would you like to increase the output of your strategy by 25% without doing anything extra? Imagine a 3R win suddenly increasing to 3.75R with no change in the strategy at all. Consider this trade... We are trying to setup a sell trade with a very defined -1R risk and +3R profit. If we were to loose this trade, we will loose 1% of our capital - and if we win, we will make 3% in return (3RR). Here, we assumed that we'll exit the trade when price moves -1R completely against us. What if, we pivot our thinking and assume the trade is lost when price has moved -0.8R : because if the trade goes that much against you, there's a very high probability that it'll hit your stop loss too. There is no reason to pretend that it can still turn around at the last moment. Murphy's law truly applies here - "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong". If we do really pivot our thinking, lets see how it works in our favor! The Stop loss is now updated and set at -0.8R So a win will still give us the same 3%, but the loss will only wipe out -0.8% from our account. Now because our profit targets are still setup as per the original 1% trade, you can now see that we now get this extra reward if our trade hits its original 3R target The moment we draw 3R as per our new -0.8R stop loss, we get this - You can see how the 3R with -0.8R stop loss is achieved much before than the 3R with -1R stop loss (obviously)! That means, the extra reward you got when the trade reached your original 3R - is additional profit which you now have - without ever changing your trading strategy! 3/0.8 = 0.75 (which is 25% of your original 3R target) 0.75/3 = 25% You now have extra an 25% reward for free! New RR = 3.75 This is a very beautiful math equation for yet another reason! Imagine you lost your trade with a -0.8R => the additional 0.75R you will achieve (for free) from another trade will extremely quickly cover up anything you lost. As you can see, we can really use sound risk management techniques & Math to our benefit. This is called : Tilting the "Math" in your favor!
Education
by makuchaku
155
FTSE100 - UKX - WHERE TO NEXT?FTSE100 UKX - Range Bound - WHERE TO NEXT? Technical View: Resistance: 6782.5, 6823.0, 6900.5 Support: 6677.7, 6627.6, 6610.9, 6535.8 (200EMA) Pattern: Multiple formation Bull Flag / Triangle Formation How to approach this trade idea: - Add alerts at key break out areas - Wait for the break out and trade the pull back - Check the key Fibs matching S&R Areas - Don't forget to gain a good R/R - Add limit orders to break out areas, bit more of risky approach as you don't want be part of fake break out! Go with what you have written on your trade plan overall. It's FRIDAY....! On a Friday - I take day trades, review my journal and get ready for the week ahead. It hasn't been bad week very choppy markets we are in range bound areas in most assets apart from Crypto's great momentum towards down side I always say in life and in the markets - What goes up, comes down eventually. Now it doesn't mean you're going to become profitable trader and come down - NO! What I mean is, your performance isn't going to be straight line there will be days up and down and let be honest with you - I don't always trade everyday because I know when I want to be part of the market, be disciplined! It does depends on way you mange your portfolio. Have a great weekend. Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
U
by Trade_Journal
AUDJPY - Great R/R Trade Idea!AUDJPY Technical view: Pattern: Descending wedge Support: 80.185, 80.005, 79.815, 79.605 Resistance: 80.520, 80.660, 80.845 Bearish Confirmation Below: 80.185 How to approach the trade idea: - Follow your trade plan - Add an order where you think a confirmed break below would be - Checking the sentiment of the market for further conviction - Wait for break out, and trade the pull back Fundamentals: ECB : I don't think there will be any significant movement within ECB meeting there are few areas I will be keeping an eye if mentioned: - Biden ( inflation factors) - Political stance in Italy - Extension of lockdowns - Vaccination - Exchange Rate of EUR Jobless Claims : Wall street Vs Main street. I've had few people message in past weeks and days questions along lines of: How do you keep going even when the trade is against you? & How did you not quit? My answer: Be humble enough to let your ego go within trading, that's what a stoploss is there for, journal your trades to know what went wrong follow your own trade plan you don't always need multiple amount of indicators, stay disciplined to become the trader you want to become. It's not an over night success - I like the quote: First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. The reality is - The market owes you nothing at all, and the best set up are those you have the patience with rather than rushing into. Surround yourself with community (Network) around you not social media community but a professional community, that most likely will cost. All the best, Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
BTCUSD 7.6/1 RRCOINBASE:BTCUSD looks about ready to move back up. For many investors these low swings have been a blessing in disguise and there is no drop that isn't quickly met with a sharp rally. Bitcoin has been searching for a floor, slowly making new lows but 34k has been manipulated heavily and there seems to be no reason that bitcoin couldn't crack it, but I do not believe there is enough supply in the market for it to achieve such a feat again. I could see it rapidly making its way back up to 35k and potentially clawing back up to 40k if the conditions are right.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by crawfordpaul
2
ADBE - Follow up - Getting ready to rallyOn my previous post a few days ago, I highlighted this orange zone from which a bounce is highly likely if the primary count is correct. Today we are seeing it go up with other mega caps. Right now it look like it's making a 5 wave advance which would be a great bullish sign but we only have 3 waves up for now. I already have a position here but I will look to add to it if we get 5 waves up followed by a correction lower which needs to remain above 453.2 !
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
1
EURNZD Breakout PlayEURNZD showing signs of our market structure. Has had multiple lower highs swings, and then momentum became to exhaust. A reversal of the trend has triggered. The 1.6962 zone was resistance. The breakout occurred, and then price pulled back to retest. The last 4 hour candle close indicated that buyers are stepping in, and a higher low has been confirmed. I am targeting the 1.71 zone for my first target. We could make another swing depending on how price reacts at that level. Placing my stop loss below the retest, and targeting 1.71 gives me close to a 1:3 risk vs reward ratio.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
ZI - Ready to get going It's been a while but looks like it's getting ready for a move higher now. But, if this updated count is to be correct, we will see only one push higher before seeing it pullback again, since it seems we got a Triangle here. For those among you who are not familiar with the Elliott Wave Theory, know that Triangle corrections occur in the position prior to the final actionnary wave in the pattern of one larger degree. Meaning, we will see a wave C higher and then correct most of, if not all, of this ABC rise. Note that wave C often is equal to 61.8%, 100% or 161.8% of wave A. This gives potential targets at 55$, 65$ and 85$. I don't think the 55$ a big hurdle to overcome, we have to primarly focus on the 65$ which is also the all time high for this stock.
NASDAQ:ZILong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
3
ZI - Continuing higher if support holds, else down to 35/38We're in a decision point here. If support holds , we should see a small base form and price continue to go higher , in which case you can buy on a break out of the consolidation. If we do break below support , chances increase for this to be a Flat correction and should therefore see price go down to the marked support zone. Here's an idealised Flat correction Note that here are different types/names of Flats depending of where wave C end. Look it up if you want to learn a bit more.
NASDAQ:ZILong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
1
EURUSD - Consolidation before resuming higher one last time !EURUSD - With my memebers, we got out of this pair on 17th December because I thought pink wave 5 of orange wave iii was done and we met our target zone. Seems like I was slightly off since we got an Ending Diagonal which now came to an end it seems. We now should have started potential orange wave iv which might unfold as a Triangle which is usually the case for waves 4 but it can very well be any other corrective pattern. Support is around 1.2130 here at the Diagonal wave (2) low down to pink wave 4 low at 1.2060. Intraday you can look to short this but if it's not your style of trading, simply stay out of this until orange wave iv comes to an end. FIY : Waves 4 are the trickiest and are a real pain to trade. So, best is to leave this pair alone because it will only frustrate you!
by ElliottWaveBelgium
1
SOME USEFUL TIPS FOR NEW TRADERS here are some tips for newbies. One thing, I want to say again and again don't rush in trading it's not a quick-rich scheme remember that. and every newbie needs to gain knowledge first about markets than most important part risk/money management need to learn because they r so important. Most newbies come into existence and think they have gone to use big leverage in one trade and they gone to be 100% right and gone to rick quick don't think in that way. u not gone to be 100% right all the time. remember u also gone to be face losses as well even experienced traders lose money but because of their money management they able to small their losses and when they win they big win. hope u understand what I mean who earned that GOOD LUCK. I will most more content for newbies so they can get the right path. thanks for reading :)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by THELEGENDSINGH
NIO: New record high! How to proceed?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NIO is doing today! First, NIO did hit our target at the All Time High (ATH) and it even defeated it, which is incredible. The ATH was our target since Dec 29 I believe, and I’ll leave the link to this analysis below. But how to proceed now? Well, there’s not much else to do, but hold. If you booked profits on Friday when it hit our target, I won’t judge you, but as long as we don’t see any reversal or weakness signs around, the trend will persist. As far as I know, NIO is doing what is called Time Correction , meaning, the price is accumulating and moving sideways until the 21 ema catches up with it. Since it is a bull trend, we are fine, but every accumulation in the hourly chart may indicate a Spinning Top/Bottom or Doji in the daily chart: Assuming that NIO will do a Spinning Top or a Doji in the daily chart, if it loses today’s low next, then we may see NIO drop again to a previous support level, maybe to the $ 57.20, or even to the 21 ema in the worst-case scenario. But this would be just a pullback, and pullbacks in a bull trend are just opportunities. I don’t think it is a good idea to buy now, as the R/R ratio is not good. A good R/R ratio was on Dec 29, when NIO triggered the Piercing Line pattern. Now it is time to manage positions. Let’s watch NIO closely form now on and try to react properly when the next opportunity come. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates and support this idea if you liked it! Thank you very much! Have a great Monday!
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
39
Book Review: Trading in the Zone by Mark DouglasSome say that trading is 10% mechanical and 90% psychological. One of my mentors once said "The simpler we make trading, the more profitable it seems to be." and it was a profound statement to me at the time... It was one of those "I heard the exact thing I needed to hear at the exact time" moments and it changed the way I traded. It is in our nature to over-complicate things because we have been conditioned to think that profitable ventures must be complex ventures from a very early age. How many times have we heard "You can't do that... only rich people get to _____." "You'll never be able to get _____ without a college education and years of hard work (working for *someone else*!)." And of course, "If trading were so easy, everybody would be doing it." We are surrounded by negative ninnies nullifying our natural need to succeed. Well, I believe trading indeed is easy, but becoming a trader... now that indeed is the hard part. In an earlier article I talk about Backtesting and its importance in determining if your trading system works, answering the question "Can this system generate a *reliable* income week after week?" Once you determine that, the question is "Can I work the system?" And that question, my fellow traders, is all about psychology. (And the point of the book at hand: Trading in the Zone.) This article rounds out what I believe will be my two most important book reviews. In my previous review of Price Action Breakdown I highlighted the processes of technical analysis as presented by the author. Using Supply and Demand we can find the movement of money in the markets and reliably place trade after trade right behind the big institutions who move those markets. There are many ways to trade using a Supply and Demand methodology. I myself came up with my own method which I call Sabre which I formulated from my years of experience standing on the shoulders of giants, following rules, managing risk, and "sharpening the saw" as the late great Steven Covey would say. However, no matter how good a system is, if not followed properly, (and in some cases if not followed to the *letter*) even the best 'systems' will produce mediocre or even negative results. For instance, there are plenty of great weight loss and weight management 'systems' out there (Keto, Paleo, Atkins, Whole 30, ...) but if one does not have a good psychology, they won't "work the system" even though they know that "the system works." It isn't until a person's *psychology* is right (i.e. that the PAIN of being overweight/unfit is greater than the perceived pain of following a system) that they will follow a prescribed system of weight management or fitness. Mark Douglas opens his book on this very topic, saying that "The consistent winners think differently from everyone else." It's not smarts, or market analysis, or a super-duper indicator that separates the successful from the unsuccessful, but one's State Of Mind , and primarily a state of mind that thinks in probabilities . Trading, says Douglas, is very similar to a casino. The only difference is that we need to think like the person behind the table dealing the cards, not the rube playing the cards. Once you get behind the table, then you can play with the Law of Large Numbers by your side: you don't care how many hands you lose... you just know that overall in the course of 100 deals / shuffles / spins that you will come out ahead if you have an edge - a system that allows you to play where the odds are stacked in your favor. For instance, if you have a trading system that is only right 30% of the time, but your winners consistently generate a minimum of 5R of profit, are you going to be upset that seven out of every ten of your trades are losers? You shouldn't be, because for every 7R in losses (7 losses x 1R) you will generate at least 15R in winnings (5 wins x 3R). Your main goal then would to find as many trades as possible to get into each and every day! (If you are not familiar with the method of trading in "R", or 'aaRrrrrr' as we pirates call it, you can review my " Trade like a Pirate " article...) The essential ingredient in developing this successful probabilistic mindset is to indeed, have a successful trading system, an edge that overall in the game of large numbers will allow you you rake in more winnings than are drawn out by your losses. And as my favorite quote from Douglas says, "Once you learn to identify patterns and read the market, you find there are *limitless* opportunities to make money." Our primary job as traders, then, is to manage risk , that our edge only allows us to take trades that meet the demands of our system, and we take every trade that meeds those qualifications. It is a rare thing, however, to find a "trader in training" willing to think that way... the beginning trader wants to find out how to be right all the time. They want to experience certainty in an environment which is random, which will lead to ultimate disappointment. Think of trading like flipping a coin, (a random event): If you can get someone to play with you where for every time the coin comes up heads they have to pay you $300 and for every time it comes up tails you have to pay them $100, would you play? Of course! Because you know that at the end of the day the money is going to consistently flow in your direction, that overall for every 2 flips you have the expectation of making $200, if 50% of the time it comes up heads (making $300) and 50% of the time it comes up tails (losing $100). If you had a magical money machine that would play with you, with these kind of odds, would you simply flip that coin 5 times and call it a day? If I could make a friendly assumption, I would say that you would sit there in front of that machine flipping that quarter hour after hour until that machine ran out of money! We traders, however, aren't playing a person. We are playing the market . And the market has (for all practical purposes) unlimited piles of money. And if we have an "edge" that pays us 3R for every time we have to pay the market 1R what would you do? You will take every...single...trade... that comes your way that meets your criteria. An amateur at a poker table might walk away because he lost all of his winnings. The market won't run out of money and will play along with you as long as you desire – at least until you reach your goals. Douglas summarizes his point saying that we will be a consistently profitable trader if we can "learn how to redefine your trading activities in such a way that you truly accept the risk, and you’re no longer afraid." And that "the consistency you seek is in your mind , not in the markets." If we want to be "In the Zone" and make ourselves available to this infinite opportunity flow, we need to develop a carefree state of mind that doesn't have any expectation about any individual trade except that "something will happen." Our goal is not to win or not to not lose, but to "get in the water" - to put on every trade that represents our edge and wait for that "something" to happen. And if your trade happens to be a loser, then get excited because that means you are that much closer to a win. With this carefree, probabilistic mindset, "losing" trades will never again produce a negative emotion. In fact, "If every loss puts you that much closer to a win, you will be looking forward to the next occurrence of your edge, ready and waiting to jump in without the slightest reservation or hesitation." Trading, according to Douglass, is ultimately a "pattern recognition numbers game." As long as we insist on "having to know" what will happen with any particular trade we will experience stress and have unfulfilled expectations. When we begin thinking (and acting) in probabilities and a series of trades, we will begin to develop an "unshakable belief in our consistency as a trader." I've recently heard it said that "Trading is one of the most amazing, rewarding, and enriching professions there is. But I wouldn't wish it on anybody!" For the most part, trading is highly psychological. As Yoda said, "You must unlearn what you have learned." What makes one a successful doctor, engineer, lawyer, Fill-in-the-blank.... those skills will contribute *nothing* to being a better trader. Finally, just like one trip to the gym won't make you healthy and fit, a single read of this book won't give you a strong mental edge to complement the technical edge of your trading system. I make it a habit to read/listen to this book at least once per quarter alongside Price Action Breakdown . Take notes. Apply. Rinse. Repeat. That's my one bit of advice for you: Don't just read this book once... read it regularly ... Like with the Napoleon Hill's book Think and Grow Rich ... If you ask anyone if they've ever read it and they said yes, ask them "How many times? Because you obviously aren't rich yet!" Even Napoleon Hill stressed that you should read his book over and over if you are going to exercise your "thinking meat" and make it stronger and stronger day by day. (By the way... you should read that book as well... but that's a review for another day.) Trade well! -Anthony
Education
by ocaptain
25