DAX - Ready to go down like the other indexes ?Dax, like the other indexes is at a decisive point right now.
If we really are in this ending Diagonal, we should see price drop sharply very soon.
On this setup, same as my post on the S&P, the R/R ratio totally makes up for the low probability of this trade.
Similar to this setup :
An exemple of how this can play out,
Notice the similarity of this setup to WTI in August !
Riskreward
TESLA - Follow up to previous post - Time to take profitsTime to take profits here and let late buyers fight the bears.
With our members, we closed part of our positions at 573 some of our positions a week ago and now we closed most of our remaining and left only 1/4 with a stop at 510.
If it continues higher after what seems to be a triangle consolidation.
Looking for 630 next where red wave V would be equal to wave I.
BITCOIN - Finally reaching 20 000$ ?! - Other followingWe seem to have finished a Triangle count here so can look for the move higher to be equal to wave (i) which gives us a potential target of 20219 .
Of course it can go higher and I'd love to see it go higher but 20k is already a great target.
If price goes above 19340 , it should continue to go higher towards the noted Fib clusters.
Same view goes for the other cryptos !
Notice that Litecoin and XR P have the biggest growth potential among the list.
For LTC I think it's doeable but XRP i'm not that sure, so, carefull on your allocations.
But if price goes below orange wave e , we could see a sell off here so be twice as carefull in that case!
NIO: Pullback, not a Reversal sign.Hello traders and investors! Ok, NIO dropped sharply today, let’s see what’s going on here, and if there are reasons to panic.
First, NIO dropped below our target at $ 42.51 (red line), and it hit the next support level at the $ 38.33 (purple line), and now it is reacting. The fact that it quickly filled the gap today, and it closed above the previous support at the red line is a very good sign . It shows strength. If you missed my previous NIO analysis, the link to it is below, as usual.
These support levels are clearly buy zones , and the sell-off couldn’t sustain for too long. Since the trend is slightly bearish in the hourly chart, the zone of the pink line and the 21 ema are supposed to work as resistances next.
Now, let’s look at the daily chart:
All the lines present in this chart are support levels, which are all buy zones. When NIO loses one support level, it’ll seek the next one to attract new investors. This is how the market works, at least most of the time.
Nio just hit a support level at the green line and it is doing a great candlestick pattern today. The volume is looking good, and if it closes above the 21 ema it’ll be even better. We may have a classic candlestick pattern called Piercing Line , which is usually a very good sign. But NIO must close this way.
Since we are in a support level, the situation favors the bulls, as when you buy near a support level the Risk/Reward ratio is usually very good. Also, since the trend is bullish, the odds favor the bulls too, and pullbacks are just opportunities to buy.
Let’s see how NIO will close today, and if you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates, and please support this idea if you liked it!
Thank you very much!
FUTU - Support at 41/43, good place to start building longsThis one has been pretty good to me and my subsribers us althought our first buy in was stopped out for a tiny loss but we were able to get in again and got some nice profits out of it.
Now we're in a fourth wave so this could and probably will continue some more sideways if it stops at support.
So, building longs slowly is the way to go imo but only if we see price stall around the marked support zone !
S&P500 - Is this just a fakeout ? Fantastic R/RThis is the SPY ETF but the count is the same for SPX too.
I don't know if we're in a 3 waves correction here or in a 1,2 situation.
- If price starts to go lower but in corrective fashion and doesn't invalidate the count, chances increase (by a lot) that we'll see a rally higher.
- If on the other hand it keeps on going lower, I expect this to be a wave C or Y, completing a Flat correction or a WXY combination that started on September 2nd.
- And if of course price goes above 269.4, this would make the Diagonal pink wave 3 the shortest motive wave hence invalidate the count and thus probably continue higher.
The R/R is great and completely makes up for the low probability of this setup at this point if you want to short right away.
For the more risk averse traders among you, you could wait for a sharp drop below pink wave 4 before initiating any trade or simply a 5 waves drop followed by a 3 waves correction.
Review of back to back CADCHF trades.Evening traders
I just wanted to share two trades I've taken in the last two days on CADCHF working the 30M time frame.
In previous Forex ideas I have noted using the strategy I am utilizing on the H1 time frame following trend until next signal presents.
But this strategy is adaptable to how you would like to trade. In this example I have set my parameters to work to a stop loss and take profit setting. The setting is a 1:2.15 risk to reward ratio. Back tested from when I started trading this pair on March 4th in this manner you will see the results at the bottom of the screen are 79% gains on capital. This from risking 2% of capital per trade.
$200 dollars was risked on these trades for a $430 dollar gain on capital. Trade one was a 31pip profit move and trade two a 29 pip profit move.
For any more information on the strategy I am using please feel free to drop me a message.
Gold - Reversing now or one more tiny drop first ?We seem to have finished a WXY correction contained in this descending channel.
A move above orange wave iv is a first sign that price is reversing but you can wait for a break above the middle channel line which would be a another bullish sign, followed by a move outside the channel.
Beware though, we could see one more tiny drop down to around 1750 if the alternate count is correct and this is actually just orange wave iv.
NFLX - Going for 570. Will 662 follow after ? Good R/R setup !NFLX - Looks like we could see a rally up to 570 first, followed by 662 next but this view has to be evaluated anew once (if) price reaches 570.
Best is to wait for a push above 496 before buying, in which case Stops can be placed at 475 but I recommend using 458.8, just to give it some more room.
Ps: Notice that we have a potential Head & Shoulder pattern, building potentially the right shoulder.
Short setup of AUDCHF at 0.6715-0.6750 with high RR ratio Technical Analysis:
On the Weekly chart, the pair has been sideways for a while, sell at the top would give me a low risk trade with high reward.
entry 0.6715
stop 0.6750,
target 1 is 1.5 of stop loss, target 2 is 0.6450.
In addition, the downtrend line in cyan blue colour would give more odds on my side.
Basically, it’s a nice structure to place this trade. However, if I got stopped out. I will look for long setups for the pullback.
Plan your trade and trade your plan. Before we pull the trigger, we must know the possible scenarios. Don't focus on the money, instead focus on your trading process. The money will come into your pocket.
Importance of risk management : this trade is now risk free!I took this trade and was expecting price to move 3R in my favor. However, after hitting 1R, the price just collapsed back.
Even though I might loose this trade - but because of my risk management plan, this trade is already risk free for me (after it hit 1R).
I cannot express enough - HAVE A RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN that works for your attitude!
Risk management
1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free
2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even
3) Close trade at 3R
4) Winner = 1.75R (looser = 1R)
NIO: Earnings tomorrow! Should we worry about it?Hello traders and investors! Tomorrow NIO will report its Earnings , and this may bring some volatility. Let’s see what’s going on here.
First, NIO is failing in trading above the green line at $ 45.28, which was supposed to work as a support, and the 21 ema is flat, meaning the bull trend is weaker. This isn’t a reversal sign yet, and I see this as a natural and healthy movement.
I see this green line as a quite important point for the short-term, as we have been discussing in the past few days. If you missed my previous analysis, the link to it is below, as usual .
The trend is still bullish, and we have no lower highs/lower lows here, and sometimes it is good for it to take a break . But the question is, what point should I start to get worried? It depends on your strategy here, and I would look at the daily chart for more info:
Honestly, if I were on NIO, I wouldn’t be worried at all, as the 21 ema is still pointing up , and we have a bull trend in the hourly and daily chart alike. If it closes above the green line would be perfect, but if it doesn’t, and retest again the 21 ema, I see no reason to panic.
We had a quite bearish sign on Friday, which still could make NIO drop to the $ 37 level, but today’s reaction is frustrating the bears here. And this is one of the reasons I don’t like to short stocks like this. Just like the movement we saw on Tesla this year; we can’t underestimate a bull trend.
I think now t is not the time to buy, as the Risk/Reward is not that interesting. I always prefer to buy near pullbacks, and if the Earnings bring some volatility for us, maybe we can use it in our favor. But for now, I think it is time to manage positions, and increase every time we see NIO doing a pullback.
And if this idea helped you, please, support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates!
Thank you very much.
EUR/USD 100 PIPS BUY SETUP WITH 1:5 RISK TO REWARDAfter a wonderful short setup on the previous post we expected price to test liquidity level to confirm continuation with overall trend to upside.
---->Price has broke the counter trend line which is also forming "higher lows"
----> Price respecting the 50% fib level which is the golden fibonacci level.
----> the dollar index show weakness to upside and we could see price now for eurusd continue to upside
Key areas to watch for target to be achieved
--->resistance level around 1.18250 level which is a highly point of control of the market and that give as a risk to reward of 1;1.3 in case we break that level we could see price continue to upside. 1.19000 level which gives us a nice risk to reward of 1:5
---> If price close below 1.17850 level the the trade becomes invalid. also have an eye of how market react cause it is friday
Russell2000 - Trouble ahead ! Shorts recommendedLooking at the other indexes, I have to favor the Flat count on this one.
I don't believe to be in a 1,2 / i,ii situation but it's still a valid option just as a potential Diagonal count !
But in both cases price needs to remain above invalidation level !
Shorting is the best option for now.
For non-elliottitians :
Idealized chart :
Other indexes are at similiar position.
USDMXN - Peso - Short & Longer term view.Technical & Fundamental View:
Fundamental View: Longer term I do see dollar weakening this doesn't mean it's going to 0 and we all jump into crypto's! Just personal opinion but I do think the further QE we have inflation target of 2% DEC FOMC meeting is something I am very interested in and how large will the QE be and given the great vaccine news ..It's something to think about. QE and other tools they have, they are basic tools that are used within economic cycle, which you can research in your spare time and if you would like to know good books regarding that, message me privately or comment down below I'd be sure to help. I see further decline in the dollar longer term due many fundamental factors as I stared and you can read my last post on EUR. However, when trading think of good R/R. We are in range bound areas, in most of the G10 currencies, just look at the euro 1.16-1.19 for good solid few months...! But I am not jumping into the market.
When the market is range bound in technical stand point its going to break out eventually but short term, take advantage of the intra-day set ups for this example: I have been long Peso since 20.25353 for few days it didn't move yes frustrating but then it spiked higher on lower time frame I saw bullish formation, now my target are next resistance areas 20.800 areas. Does this mean you jump in right now? No - Do what your trade plan says, when I look at trades I personally look at good R/R this trade still does have potential.
Technical analysis - Long and short term:
Key support: 20.14100
Key resistance: 20.80200 & 21.11600
Short term formation: Small Channel resistance is 20.800 areas (It can be seen
Longer term formation: Bear flag
Short term view: Up towards 21.800 Areas (Good resistance Zone) and if it edges higher keep an eye on 200 EMA.
Long term view: Further decline towards retesting 20.14100 areas and perhaps decline longer term to lower areas of 20.000 areas which matches 161.8 Fib Retracement. Remember, market moves in waves!
Key tip: Follow your own trade plan & Journal your trades
(Remember - Just a trade idea, not a recommendation).