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DADA - Up it goes 45.8 first, 58.8 nextThis is a follow up to my previous post you can check out below. Bullish view is intact as this one (any many other Chinese stocks) have held perfectly during current market correction. As long as invalidation holds, I see no reason to not have a position here and in Chinese stocks in general (other good one for exemple is ZI) Previous post: Don't forget to follow and give a thumbs up if you like my content. The more you appreciate my work, the more I'll share for free.
NASDAQ:DADALong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
BTC Dancing In Triangle!Hello Community! Before we begin please support my idea with a thumbs up and a comment. It'll be greatly appreciated and will motivate me to post a little more! Lets keep it simple. When taking a look at BTC/USDT we see it trading in a triangle. Bulls and bears respect these zones until it reaches close to the end where a decision needs to be made. Personally i think it can go either way but i'm leaning more towards the bullish side. Lets watch closely and see exactly how this plays out in the next 24 hrs. Each line is an area of value where you can enter a quick short position or long. remember to use your stops and good luck! This is not Financial advice. Safe Trading Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! Simplicity Win
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by rnaofs
2
Proving Your Trading System with BacktestingWouldn’t it be great to see the future? To see where turning points in price will occur with a high degree of accuracy? To see if a trading system that you developed or bought or learned actually works? Well, you can, with a method called BACKTESTING.  Backtesting performs three important functions: 1: It helps you IDENTIFY the reliability / win rate of your trading system over time. 2: It helps develop and reinforce the muscle memory you need to EXECUTE opportunities in your trading strategy 3: It helps you continually REFINE / improve your strategy as you observe it work against price action, ultimately increasing your "hit rate" as a professional trader. The first requirement of a trading system is that it works via RULES. There are no 'hunches' in the market... the market has *specific* behavior patterns and our job as traders is to recognize those patterns and *capitalize* on them. Backtesting has three important requirements: The first requirement is that your trading platform supports backtesting. Can you go back "x" amount of time and look at the timeframe(s) you need to make the decisions you would have made if you were "in the moment" in an efficient manner in order for you to simulate hundreds of trade setups? The second requirement is that *you* are willing to put the energy and work into testing your trading system within an inch of its life before you risk a single penny of your trading capital. You need to know WHEN the system works, WHERE the system fails, and WHY the system worked and failed when it did, and that takes hundreds (if not thousands!) of simulated trades to do so. As you are observing the system in action you will begin to "see" the patterns in a new light. It will become more and more intuitive and you will find opportunities to 'tweak' the system as you go along. You will identify patterns when trades fail and stop trading that pattern. You will see opportunities that got away and you can 'tweak' your system to take advantage of those opportunities. Most importantly, you will see whether the system even works reliably at all and ditch it if it doesn't. It may be frustrating to decide to do so, but the good news is you will not have lost a single penny trading a faulty system to begin with! TRACKING YOUR TRADING SYSTEM To track the accuracy of your trading system you will need to setup a spreadsheet that will record the important variables you want to track. For example, you may want to include the headers, Asset / Date / Time In / Time Out / Long or Short / Reward to Risk Ratio / Gain or Loss / Account Balance The "Reward to Risk Ratio" column is the most important. If you read my previous column, "Trade Like a Pirate" ... ... I discuss that you need to think in terms of Percent Risk per trade ("R") and not Dollars. This will show you how well your strategy works. For Example, if after tracking 100 trades you find out that your system has a 33% success rate, your account will grow by 1% for every three trades if you follow a minimum 3:1 Reward to Risk Ratio (3 -1 -1 = +1). If you find on average 6 trades per day, your account can potentially grow by 2% per day. Under the "Account Balance" column, if you add the trade's win/loss to your previous account balance you can determine how long it would take to get 'x' amount of money from where you started (or how long it will take and inferior system to lose it all as well!) Testing your trading system also shows you how many opportunities present themselves per day / per hour and when the best time is to go 'fishing' for trades. Backtesting might tell you that you need to wake up 2 hours earlier (and go to bed 2 hours earlier) if you want to achieve the goal of replacing your car in 6 months. Or fire your boss in 24 months. Or pay off the mortgage in 3 years. Having a plan to *make* money should also include your plans on how and when you want to *spend* that money - how you will 'pay yourself'. Socrates famously said “The unexamined life is not worth living.” Likewise the unexamined trading system is not worth putting your hard earned money into. The more you backtest your system, the more you will gain (or lose) confidence in the system which will ultimately determine the actions you will take. Another happy by-product is that not only will you be able to refine your trading system, but you yourself will be continually refined in the fire of the market, exercising your mental muscles looking for opportunities that meet your particular trading system. For instance, by analyzing all my losing trades in my first batch of 100, I was able to identity a pattern in the formations common to all failing trades but not winning trades. I then modified my trading system to exclude trades which showed that pattern, increasing my success rate by 30% in the next 100 trades I tested with the new system. Not happy with that, I went through my losing trades from Round 2 and found another common pattern among them. Eliminating those, I modified my system and increased my success rate by yet another 20%. Finding what works is often a product of finding out what doesn't work, and just stop doing that! If you need advice on how to stop a bad habit, just listen to Bob Newhart: www.youtube.com Finally, just as any athlete will you tell you that you should "Warm Up" before performing any strenuous exercise, one thing my backtesting system has taught me is that I need to spend the first 30 minutes of my trading day "warming up" by finding all the opportunities that presented themselves in the Futures market during the overnight session and log them in my spreadsheet. Likewise at the end of the day I look at all opportunities I might have missed so I can reduce the likelihood of missing them again. The original title of this article was "Backtesting to the Future" which reflected this habit: by 'warming up' before actually trading I got my mind prepared to "see the opportunities" for the future day ahead, and I identified these patterns a lot better than I would have if I entered the pool cold and experienced the 'cramp' of a losing trade. Admittedly, backtesting a highly visual concept, so I will be following up this article with a video showing an example of my backtesting strategy and how you can model my system to meet the needs of *your* system. As I love to say, "Good artists copy, great artists steal." Likewise, "Good traders copy... Great traders steal." I hope you can steal some of these ideas and have them help improve your trading game! Share your thoughts and success below! As always, I'd love to hear if this has helped you become more confident and profitable in your trading. Like and Follow if you haven't already and you will be alerted to when I post the followup video! Trade hard and trade well!
Education
by ocaptain
105
S&P500 - Bulls still not out of the woods ...S&P500 - Despite the optimism we're seeing in the markets today, I wouldn't go on a buying spree right away. Many setups have been popping up but I still believe we're in a bad phase right now and there is a high chance for markets to sell off and make new lows. What the catalyst might be, I don't know... Maybe Trump will not acknowledge the results ? Who knows What I do know is that it's possible we're in a Flat correction here (or next leg of a sideways Triangle) therefore be particularly careful because the potential sell off could be very sharp!
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by ElliottWaveBelgium
AUDNZD Swing Idea 10/30/2020The demand zone in which the price is ranging right now has already been tested 3 times as a Support. Logically, we can't blindly trust this Demand Zone and just place Buy Limits. The more a price level has been touched or tested, the more likely it is to be broken. Therefore, we will wait for clear rejections in lower timeframes to confirm the Bullish Volume. Although, if the price breaks our support and goes lower than the previous higher low, we would wait for a Clear Retest and look for Sells inside the Flip Zone.
by joseafab
RISK 2 REWARD ratio is the key I know almost every trader has asked themselves these questions: How come I keep losing?! WHY?! Why do I keep getting stopped out?! Why is it taking so long? ! Is it even possible?! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Today I have some good news for you maybe you already know this maybe you don't, but this is for those folks who do not know the power of a good Risk to Reward ratio. Let me tell something real quick you do not have a 80% winning rate not 70% I am going to say not even a 50% winning rate to be profitable ( Hold ON A MINUTE man HOLD the bus man... serious) dead serious. With a risk to reward ratio of 1:2.5 you only need to win 30% of your trades to be profitable ( see below ) SAY YOU execute 10 trades and you only win 3 so essentially 30% LOST:7 WON:3 Total loss: Total profit: 7 * 1 = 7 3 *2.5 = 7.5 Total profit - Total loss = +0.5 Now even though 0.5 is not a lot at least it's not a loss. But there are a few things extra to keep in mind : 1) Your risk to reward has to stay the same for the period of the 10 trades 2) Your lot size needs to stay the same 3) AND as possible try to keep the amount of pips the same for your ratio because it does not help if you win 3 trades and you decided to set one of your positions SL as 100 pips and its TP as 250 pips and the rest of the positions SL as 20 pips and TP as 50 pips. If you lose the the big trade and hit the SL of a 100 pips its gonna through everything out of wack. So be sure to try and keep everything as consistent as possible and it will be a matter of time before you see profits. Trade with H
by Trade_with_H
Entry Strategies using Support & Resistance ZonesBrief video tutorial discussing entry strategies using support and resistance zones. How I produce support & Resistance zones can be learnt from the live stream recording HERE With any trading indicator, it is vitally important to have a sensible entry strategy with entry, stop loss and enough risk to reward to the next support or resistance zone. It is also as important not to fudge your entry and stop to give a decent risk to reward. Frame your charts first with Support & resistance zone, put on your stop and your entry. Then the last thing to do is put on your risk to reward. I cover this in this video and show you how to use the Fibonacci extension tool to work out your risk to reward
CME_MINI:RTY1!Education
by PBratbyOfficial
Nat Gas - Classic patterns vs Elliott WaveWe can make the case for this being a rising Wedge Pattern or in terms of the Wave Principle, an Ending Diagonal fifth wave. Looking at the Wedge pattern, there's nothing wrong here and we can short if price goes outside the pattern. But there are two problems with this view according to the wave Principle : 1) Wave 4 did not enter wave 1 territory altough this can happen on rare occasions. 2) Proportions wise, wave 3 is bigger than wave 1 which is possible in case we have an Expanding Diagonal but because wave 4 is smaller than wave 2 here, I don't think that's the case. This then leaves us with the Extended fifth wave possibility I talked about on the last update. We can therefore expect something similar to this or possibly even much higher prices than 4.00 if it really starts to get extended.
NLong
by ElliottWaveBelgium
Here's How I Doubled My Money on Silvergate Capital Corp ($SI)I sold half of my position on a double of $SI yesterday. I'm now in a risk-free position for life. I bet only a small size, but I think small is the way to go for longevity in this game. I took this trade for two reasons: Fundamentals & Technicals. I'll break down both. The Six Most Important Fundamentals Firstly, the six most important fundamentals looked good. You can take a look at the fundamentals, here . The fundamentals are broken down into six categories Value Dilution Cash Debt Growth Effectiveness Here are some metrics for $SI: Value P/B: 1 P/E < 20 Dilution < 25 million shares out Cash P/C < 5 P/FCF < 5 Debt D/E: 7 Long-term D/E: 0 Growth Quarterly Revenue Growth > 5% Quarterly Earnings Growth > 20% Effectivness Return on Assets > 0% Return on Equity > 0% Return on Capital Employed > 0% These six fundamental criteria cover virtually all aspects of a stock's fundamentals, and it's the best way to get a clean, holistic view of a business. These six fundamental criteria all kinds of stocks, whether they are high-growth, value-based, dividend-paying, small-cap, etc Sometimes, businesses may have high debt (like this one). However, if they have good cash-flow, that, in some ways, balances the high debt. Why? Good cash-flows will be used to pay off the debt. On Risk And Relax , you can choose the fundamental factors that you think are the most important, and ignore the rest. This way, you can cleanly analyze a business without the noise. In this case, $SI had a good score of over 65% when considering all six fundamental criteria. Now, let's look at the technicals. The Most Important Technicals There are several technical indicators, but in my opinion, the most important "indicator" is market structure. In other words, is the price shows signs of a bottom? I want to see the price in the shape of a 'W'. And around April of this year, that's exactly what I saw. The Bottom Line All other technical indicators are fine, but they add noise. The goal should always be to subtract noise. And the best way to do this is to focus solely on price action (market structure) and the six key fundamentals. If both are a go, then I feel comfortable buying! So, that's what I did. I bought @ $9, and I sold half of my position when the price hit $18. I had the conviction to keep holding because of the fundamentals. I hope this helped. I also made a YouTube video on this investment. Check it out!
S
by realcapmillen