Risk-To-Reward-Calculation with Key-Components.________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hello Traders Investors And Community.
Welcome to this educational idea about the risk-reward-calculation in position trading with the 5-Key-Components determined. Today's markets constantly
changing and adapting and in such environments, we need to stick to a systematic trading approach to have the long term goals realized and do not fall
apart of market-making and smart money operators, when considering position-trading there are some important steps in acquiring the long-term-success
we should take apart when calculating the right risk in comparison to our capital and other key-steps to measure what trading is the best for ones
individual trading-system to achieve the aims we desire.
Therefore I contributed the 5-Key-Components inevitable to measure one's risk-to-reward in the market and best applied in a functional trading-system.
1.) The 5 Key Position-Trading Rules
2.) Acknowledging Risk Aversion
3.) Risk-To-Reward-Calculation
4.) Risk-Reward-Ratio vs. Winrate
5.) Possibilities of Success and Ruin
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1.) The 5 Key Position-Trading Rules
1. First Rule: Do not hold the position longer than necessary:
It is important to choose a trading-system which has good entry timing and the right opportunities to exit therefore it is the best to be in the market when
volatility increases and takes profit at the important levels to not hold the position unnecessarily longer.
2. Second Rule: Aim to make as much as possible by risking as little as possible:
When trading we should advance by making the most of what we have at hand, today's markets offer options with leveraged trading which can work also
with smaller percentages of the deposit at hand, in this case, the leverage should be calculated right.
3. Third Rule: Only risk a small amount of capital on any trade executed:
It is commonly under beginner traders to risk a high percentage of the total deposit, this is a fatal mistake as the risk grows exponentially, to achieve security
of the deposit in the long-run, the maximum risk per trade should not be more than 10% from the deposit, best is 0.5-2%.
4. Fourth Rule: Don't come to the situation to meet margin calls:
This means you should avoid being marginally called on any occasions, when this happens there is evidence that the trade was too risky and the stop-loss
better be placed before the margin call, when it happens, it should be a time to review your trading-system.
5. Determine the maximum drawdown for every trade in advance
Before every trade you should measure how your position size with the stop-loss will possibly take a drawdown in the deposit. When the risk is too high
then the smaller position should be preferred, when it is still too risky than a bigger account will be a good option.
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2.) Acknowledging Risk Aversion
This is a very important step in determining ones individual trading-systems, as traders act differently to circumstances some traders are risk-averse and
others are risk-seeking, this means how the trader is reacting to risk and how much the individual would risk receiving a return.
In the graph, you can see that the lesser your capital is the higher your risk-seeking, you are more ready to risk something averagely when your capital
is lower, this diminishes the higher your capital is, there are different risk preferences reaching from extreme risk averter to extreme risk seeker.
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3.) Risk-To-Reward-Calculation
In the big table in my chart you can see the risk-to-reward calculation and the values in it, the first value is the risk meaning how much you want to risk
in the particular trade coming to the second value, the return is what you get in return on your trade.
For example, you want to buy bitcoin at 15000 and have set the target at 15010, by the technical analysis you have determine a stop-loss at 14500, this will
be a highly risky trade as you are risking to lose 500 points comparison to 10 points.
The best trades are in the green section on the table beginning with trades where you gain 2 and risk 1, these trades should be the aim and preferred,
the breakeven ratio determines how much trades need to go in breakeven to be long-time profitable.
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4.) Risk-Reward-Ratio vs. Winrate
This rate is showing you how your trading develops by time, when you have a good winrate this means you are closing many of your positions in a profit
on the other side when this winrate is low you closing too many positions in a loss and often be unprofitable in the long-run.
What determines an excellent trader now as it is marked in the chart is when the average risk-reward ratio is high and the winrate also, this means you close
many of your positions in a profit and also with the proper risk-reward-ratio.
On the middle of the chart is the threshold determining low and high, you can also be profitable when your risk-reward is high and your win rate low or in
reverse, what should definitely be avoided is when both the winrate and ratio are lows this means you have to adapt your trading-system for sure.
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5. Determine the maximum drawdown for every trade in advance
This is a simple but very effective and important graphic showing the likelihood traders have for a point of ruin and how much the risk of ruin in
comparison to it is, meaning when your deposit is at a level on which there is no longer possibility to continue.
This graphic shows that when your capital is more your risk of losing it diminishes, on the other side when it is low the possibility for losses is more as
the capital is not big to stand the losses, this is a groundstone knowledge in determining the trading-system together with risk.
The graphic shows that the higher your deposit is the better you can take the risks in comparison and the lower it is the higher is the risk of losing more,
this is why it is important to combine the risk together with a solid portfolio.
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Alright, these where the 5 key-components to determine risk in markets accordingly, traders should always look for the individual situation and where the
journeys should lead, therefore it is important to determine the risks in comparison to rewards which I bundled into the 5 Key-components necessary
determining the risk-management in ones trading-system, these components can be combined applied, or single integrated into ones trading-system.
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In this manner, thank you for watching , support for more tutorials and a good day!
"Good luck is when opportunity meets preparation."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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Riskreward
The loonie is gonna flyThe pair has broken the 100 sma in h4 chart and has bounced from the support area between 1.316 and 1.313; there was a stop hunting yesterday when the price has had a spike at 1.31189 (it was a fakeout of the trendline). Now there will be the 5th elliot wave which will go towards the 50% of fibonacci retracement in the daily chart ( around 1.335), the trade has a wonderful risk reward ratio. TheCanadian dollar is going to get weaker because of oil prices slump and the Bank of Canada wants it to be lower in order to have a larger amoun of exports, the quantitative easing programme will keep on at about 5 billions/week of bond purchased and the interest rates will remain at 0.25% for probably 2 years.
Use a good money management.
Enjoy your trading
Francesco
Financial Technology -winner20sma has been supportive since mid-april, today is a great opportunity for an entry at the current level.
Risk-Reward-Ratio is fantastic if you place a stop-loss-limit below the 20sma.
We are also seeing past resistance from early August, which is now coinciding with current support level.
RSI has not broken 50 since then.
OBV has been up-trending since.
Good luck!
EURUSD - Bullish Flag Pattern - Trend Continuation + MTFAHi Traders!
The market is in an Uptrend.
Let's begin our Multiple-Timeframe-Analysis with the Daily:
The market is clearly in a strong Uptrend.
We here have an ascending Parallel Channel.
The price is also respecting those other S&R Levels.
Great, here is the H4-Timeframe:
The market was moving in a consolidation.
Then it came back and is now retesting this break.
Here comes the important part!
Now we have to consider the behavior and the price action of the market during the Retest.
What is the market telling us?
For Example:
The market is breaking down and closes.
Then it comes back and closes even above the opening price of the previos candle.
(Bullish Engulfing Pattern)
This is a sign of Bullish Power, even it did break down at first.
Or what about that:
The market is making lower highs and comes to the Support.
You realizing that this could be a descending Triangle.
This is clear bearish Power, because the Traders are willing to sell at lower and lower prices.
Is everything understandable so far?
If not, write a comment below!
Finally, here is the Entry Timeframe:
Firstly we have drawn the Fibonacci Retracement Tool.
It was falling until the Level between the 50% and the 61.8% Retracement.
Then we drawed the channel from the retracement move.
We realized that this could be the Bullish Flag Pattern.
Even we have a save SL which is far away, the RTR-ration is 1 to 4!
And we're trading WITH the trend.
We recommend to be careful at the Resistance Level.
Thanks and successful Trading :)!
Calling the top in the shipping industry (UPS, FedEx, STMP) In this video I've shown 3 independent forms of technical analysis that make a strong case that the top is already in for these 3 stocks ! In general, I'm bearish the overall market so wouldn't be surprised to see these correct significantly.
Let me know what you guys think ! Always open to comments and critiques.
Potential Bitcoin Long (New strategy that I'm testing)Hey everyone, finally publishing my first trade! As you can see I’m trying to keep the charts as clean as possible, clean charts = a clear mind. This is a new strategy that I’m testing. Please feel free to give me any feedback, I’d love to hear your opinions! I’m anticipating Bitcoin to pull back slightly to the $11380 region. I’ll start averaging into my long from $11480, I have no problem entering positions like this, I’m not trying to snipe it to the exact $ ;). From here I’m hoping to see a move up to the $12750 region and then potentially $13215. I’ll be closing out 75% at $12750 as $13215 is a bonus target. My stop loss is set at $11170. If this trade comes through we’re looking at a 12% move and a RR of nearly 7! (16% move and RR of 9 for the bonus target but I’m not banking on this.) For now I’ll sit back and let the market do its thing. I’ll keep you guys closely updated as the market starts moving. I’ll be more than happy to admit if this goes against me and I get stopped out immediately. I’m risking no more than 1% on this trade so I’m not concerned with what happens. That’s it for this one, I look forward to sharing more ideas with you soon!
LONG & SHORT POSITION TOOL📚An In-Depth Look at Using This ToolThis illustration explains the functionality of TradingView's Long/Short Position Tool and is intended to help new people looking for more information on this tool in a "novice friendly" format. TradingView’s position tool will aid you in pre-planning and pre-evaluating trades and as such should be an essential part of every trader's toolkit .
Note:
At its simplest, the position tool can quickly show you the R:R (Risk-To-Reward) of a single trade. By doing a little extra work, you’ll be able to then use this tool to properly plan for the risk of all trades you are taking compared to your total account size.
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Important terms:
Tick = A tick is a measure of the minimum upward or downward movement in price.
Trade outcome statistics = Used to track the outcome of a trade.
Example:
“Current XYZ position closed
+5.25% gain
10840 account balance after trade impact”
P&L = A representation of current Profit & Loss. Be careful where you position the tool, as the P&L is calculated based on the position of the tool.
Here are two uses for the Position Tool:
1. Only R:R = To quickly find only the R:R of a trade. This method does not bother changing account balance and such is only acceptable if you are tracking your current account balance and doing risk calculations off-platform in something such as a google spreadsheet.
2. Risk+R:R = To ensure your current trade idea meets both your R:R and max risk tolerance (risk amount; in our case, 1%). This is achieved by changing the “Account Size” option every time you are building a new position. This is the advised method to use, since like your trade journal, it’ll help keep you accurate and accountable.
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We will now explain the options contained within the tool’s input on-chart menu:
Account size = The current available balance within your account, the keyword here is available. If you are using the "Risk" option explained below then this needs to be updated upon starting to create a new trade setup.
Risk = Your max tolerable risk amount (either in absolute numbers or as a % of your account size). The default option is "absolute numbers," this uses the base currency of the on chart asset (If you were on ETHBTC, then the base currency would be BTC; for SPX500USD it is USD since this asset is displayed in its USD value). As you know, we suggest you stick to %.
Entry Price = The price you will be entering the position at.
PROFIT LEVEL:
Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the profit target.
Price = The take profit price.
STOP LEVEL:
Ticks = The tick difference from the entry price to the stop loss.
Price = The stop losses price.
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We will now explain all metrics being displayed on the tool while it is plotted on the chart:
Top info panel:
1. The difference in base currency (USD) from the entry price to the take profit price.
2. The difference in percentage change from the entry price to the take profit price.
3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the take profit price.
4. The hypothetical account balance after the take profit target is achieved.
Middle info panel:
1. Simulated P&L from the entry price to where the current live price is.
(Displayed in the base currency of the on chart asset, USD in this example)
2. The quantity of the asset that should be purchased at the entry price.
This is calculated as follows: Qty = Risk / (Entry Price – Stop Price)
3. The risk to reward ratio, this is how much you could gain compared to how much you could lose.
The calculation is as follows:
Risk/Reward Ratio = ((Take profit price - Entry price) / (Entry price - Stop loss price))
Bottom info panel:
1. The base currency (USD) difference from the entry price to the stop-loss price.
2. The difference in percentage change from the entry to the stop-loss price.
3. The difference in ticks from the entry price to the stop-loss price.
4. The hypothetical account balance after the stop-loss is hit.
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Lastly, we will explain how Position Size and Account Balance are being calculated by TradingView:
Long Position Variant
Position Size:
Qty = RiskSize / (EntryPrice - StopPrice)
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level:
Amount = AccountSize + (ProfitLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty
Account Balance when position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level:
Amount = AccountSize – (EntryPrice – StopLevel) * Qty
Short Position Variant
Position Size:
Qty = RiskSize / (StopPrice - EntryPrice)
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Take Profit level:
Amount = AccountSize + (EntryPrice - ProfitLevel) * Qty
Account Balance when a position is closed after reaching the Stop Loss level:
Amount = AccountSize – (StopLevel – EntryPrice) * Qty
AccountSize:
Initial account size specified in the settings
RiskSize:
If the "Risk" option is set to "absolute numbers" = Risk
If the "Risk" option is set to "percentage of account size" = Risk / 100 * AccountSize
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Reference: www.tradingview.com
If we made any mistakes please let us know in the comments. There was a lot of formatting we needed to do to best display all of this information for you guys!
Enjoy. :)
Nzdjpy is going to dropThe pair is in a descending channel in weekly timeframe, if we look at the daily chart we can see that the price has broken the 50-day moving average and has formed a double top in the last month,I think that the price could go down towards the liquidity zone around 66.2, that is the target in a 2-month view; if we analyze the pair on a shorter term view the first target (1-3 weeks) is 68.2 which is the neckline of the double top. Use a tight stop loss, for example just above the moving average.
From a fundamental point of view the RBNZ is going to cut interest rates in early 2021, there will be probably a 50 points cut (from 0.25% to -0.25%), in addition the central bank has expanded the QE to 100 billions of NZ$ and is going to expand it to 140 billions during next year.
Enjoy your trading!!
Missed Trade but Profit target achieved 80 pips we expected gold to retrace the the level i indicated but i wasnt monitoring it for any price reversal or break of structure of entry since we need to adapt on how price react so gold just retraced a little and went to our target is approximately 80 pips from support level 6 pip away from our entry but it was an amazing tracking
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