Are You Taking the Right Risks in Trading? Best RISK Per Trade
What portion of your equity should you risk for your trading positions?
In the today's article, I will reveal the types of risks related to your position sizing.
Quick note: your risk per trade will be defined by the distance from your entry point to stop loss in pips and the lot size.
🟢Risking 1-2% of your trading account per trade will be considered a low risk.
With such a risk, one can expect low returns but a high level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is optimal for conservative and newbie traders.
With limited account drawdowns, one will remain psychologically stable during the negative trading periods.
🟡2-5% risk per trade is a medium risk.
With such a risk, one can expect medium returns but a moderate level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is suitable for experienced traders who are able to take losses and psychologically resilient to big drawdowns and losing streaks.
🔴5%+ risk per trade is a high risk.
With such a risk, one can expect high returns but a low level of safety of the total equity.
Such a risk is appropriate for rare, "5-star" trading opportunities where all stars align and one is extremely confident in the positive outcome.
That winner alone can bring substantial profits, while just 2 losing trades in a row will burn 10% of the entire capital.
🛑15%+ risk per trade is considered to be a stupid risk.
With such a risk, one can blow the entire trading account with 4-5 trades losing streak.
Taking into consideration the fact that 100% trading setups does not exist, such a risk is too high to be taken.
The problem is that most of the traders does not measure the % risk per trade and use the fixed lot. Never make such a mistake and plan your risks according to the scale that I shared with you.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Riskreward
Guard Your Funds: Only risk what you can afford to lose.🎉 Risk Management tip for Vesties and @TradingView community! 🚀
😲 We all know the saying "only risk what you can afford to lose," but do you know the powerful impact it can have on your trading journey? 🤔
In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency and futures trading, one fundamental principle stands as the cornerstone of profitable and sustainable trading journeys: Only risk what you can afford to lose. Embracing this essential concept is crucial for preserving capital, maintaining emotional stability, and cultivating a disciplined approach to risk management. In this article, we will delve into the significance of operating money and risk within the confines of one's financial capacity and explore the key pillars that underpin this approach.
Understanding Risk Tolerance and Capital Allocation:
1. Assessing Individual Risk Tolerance:
To truly understand one's risk tolerance and establish a robust risk management strategy, traders are encouraged to engage in a thought exercise that involves imagining potential losses in tangible terms. Visualize throwing money into the bin or burning it completely, purely to experience the feeling of losing money. This exercise may seem unconventional, but it serves a crucial purpose: it helps traders gauge their emotional response to monetary losses.
During this exercise, consider the two extreme scenarios: the first being the largest amount of money you can lose without causing significant distress, and the second being the maximum amount of loss that would completely devastate you financially and emotionally. These two amounts represent your Fine Risk and Critical Risk , which reflects the sum you are willing and able to lose over a specific period of time without compromising your financial well-being.
👉 The next step involves breaking down the Fine Risk into smaller, manageable parts. 🔑 Divide the Fine Risk into 10 or even 20 equal parts, each representing the risk amount for every individual trade. This approach is designed to create a safety net for traders, especially when they encounter unfavorable market conditions.
For instance, imagine a scenario where you face five consecutive losing trades. With each trade representing only a fraction of your Fine Risk, the cumulative loss remains relatively small compared to your risk capability, providing emotional resilience and the ability to continue trading with confidence.
By splitting the Fine Risk into smaller portions, we can safeguard their capital and ensure that a string of losses does not result in irreversible damage to our trading accounts or emotional well-being. Additionally, this approach promotes a disciplined and structured trading mindset, encouraging us to adhere to their predefined risk management rules and avoid impulsive decisions based on emotions.
Remember, risk management is not solely about avoiding losses but also about preserving the means to participate in the market over the long term.
2. Establishing a Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
The risk-to-reward ratio is a critical metric that every trader must comprehend to develop a successful trading system. It is a representation of the potential risk taken in a trade relative to the potential reward. For a well-balanced and sustainable approach to trading, it is essential to ensure that the risk-to-reward ratio is greater than 1:1.10.
A risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1.10 implies that for every unit of risk taken, the trader expects a potential reward of 1.10 units. This ratio serves as a safety measure, ensuring that over time, the profits generated from winning trades will outweigh the losses incurred from losing trades. While there is a popular notion that the risk-to-reward ratio should ideally be 1:3, what truly matters is that the ratio remains above the 1:1.10 mark.
Maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.10 is beneficial for several reasons. Firstly, it allows traders to cover their losses in the long term. Even with a series of losing trades, the accumulated profits from winning trades will offset the losses, allowing traders to continue trading without significant setbacks.
Secondly, a risk-to-reward ratio higher than 1:1.10, combined with proper risk management and a well-executed trading system, enables traders to accumulate profits over time. Consistently achieving a slightly better reward than the risk taken can lead to substantial gains in the long run.
3. Determining Appropriate Position Sizes:
Once you have a clear understanding of your risk amount and risk-to-reward ratio, you can proceed to calculate appropriate position sizes for each trade. To do this, you can use a simple formula:
Position Size = (Risk Amount per Trade / Stop Loss) * 100%
Let's take an example to illustrate this calculation:
Example:
Risk Amount per Trade: $100
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2
Stop Loss: -4.12%
Take Profit: +8.26%
Using the formula:
Position Size = ($100 / -4.12%) * 100%
Position Size ≈ $2427.18
In this example, your calculated position size is approximately $2427.18. This means that for this particular trade, you would allocate a position size of approximately $2427.18 to ensure that your risk exposure remains at $100.
After executing the trade, let's say the trade turned out to be profitable, and you achieved a profit of $200. This outcome is a result of adhering to a well-calculated position size that aligns with your risk management strategy.
By determining appropriate position sizes based on your risk tolerance and risk-to-reward ratio, you can effectively control your exposure to the market. This approach helps you maintain consistency in risk management and enhances your ability to manage potential losses while allowing your profits to compound over time.
Emotions and Psychology in Risk Management:
A. The Impact of Emotions on Trading Decisions:
Emotions can significantly influence trading decisions, often leading to suboptimal outcomes. Traders must recognize the impact of emotions such as fear, greed, and excitement on their decision-making processes. Emotional biases can cloud judgment and result in impulsive actions, which can be detrimental to overall trading performance.
B. Recognizing and Managing Fear and Greed:
Fear and greed are two dominant emotions that can disrupt a trader's ability to make rational choices. By developing self-awareness and recognizing emotional triggers, traders can gain better control over their reactions. Implementing techniques to manage fear and greed, such as setting predefined entry and exit points, can help traders navigate turbulent market conditions.
C. Developing a Disciplined Trading Mindset:
A disciplined trading mindset is the bedrock of successful risk management. This involves adhering to a well-defined trading plan that outlines risk management rules and strategies. By staying committed to the plan and maintaining a long-term perspective, traders can resist impulsive actions and maintain discipline during times of market volatility.
D. Techniques for Avoiding Impulsive and Emotional Trading:
To avoid impulsive and emotional trading, traders can employ various techniques. Implementing cooling-off periods before making trade decisions allows traders to gain clarity before acting. Seeking support from trading communities or mentors provides valuable insights and helps traders stay grounded. Utilizing automated trading systems can reduce emotional interference and ensure trades are executed based on predefined criteria.
In the world of cryptocurrency and futures trading, the fundamental principle of "only risk what you can afford to lose" remains the cornerstone of successful trading. Embracing this concept is essential for preserving capital, maintaining emotional stability, and cultivating a disciplined approach to risk management.
Understanding individual risk tolerance and breaking down total risk into smaller portions allows traders to navigate unfavorable market conditions with resilience. Maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio above 1:1.10 ensures that profits outweigh losses over time, while determining appropriate position sizes enables effective risk control.
Emotions play a significant role in trading decisions, and managing fear and greed empowers traders to make rational choices. Employing techniques to avoid impulsive trading, like cooling-off periods and seeking support, reinforces a disciplined trading mindset.
In conclusion, adhering to the principle of only risking what you can afford to lose leads to sustainable success in the dynamic trading world. By implementing effective risk management practices, traders enhance their chances of achieving profitability and longevity in their trading journeys.
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ABCAPITAL - Cup and Handle patternAll details are given on chart. If you like the analyses please do share it with your friends, like and follow me for more such interesting charts.
Disc - Am not a SEBI registered. Please do your own analyses before taking position. This post is only for educational purposes and not a trading recommendation.
The ABCs of Risk Management in Stock TradingThe ABCs of Risk Management in Stock Trading
Introduction
In the exhilarating world of stock trading, mastering the art of risk management is a crucial skill that separates successful traders from the rest. Effective risk management is all about safeguarding your capital and minimizing potential losses while maximizing opportunities for profit. In this blog post, we will explore the ABCs of risk management in stock trading and how it can lead to more sustainable and rewarding trading experiences.
A - Assessing Risk Tolerance
Before delving into the markets, it's essential to evaluate your risk tolerance. Be honest with yourself about how much capital you can afford to put at risk without causing emotional distress. Your risk tolerance will determine your position sizing and the percentage of your portfolio allocated to each trade.
B - Balancing Diversification
Diversification is a key risk management strategy. Avoid putting all your funds into a single stock or sector. By diversifying your portfolio across different assets, industries, and geographic regions, you reduce the impact of any individual investment's adverse performance on your overall portfolio.
C - Cutting Losses with Stop-Loss Orders
Stop-loss orders are a trader's best friend. Implementing stop-loss levels before entering a trade ensures that you automatically exit a position if it goes against you beyond a predetermined point. This helps protect your capital and prevent significant losses.
D - Doing Your Due Diligence
Knowledge is power in the stock market. Thoroughly research and analyze potential trades before executing them. Understand the company's fundamentals, technical indicators, and market trends to make informed decisions and reduce the element of surprise.
E - Emotion Management
Emotions can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. Successful traders maintain emotional discipline and stick to their trading plans, regardless of market fluctuations. Embrace a rational approach to trading and avoid letting emotions dictate your actions.
F - Focusing on Risk-Reward Ratio
A positive risk-reward ratio is a fundamental aspect of risk management. Aim to take trades with higher potential rewards than the associated risks. This means that even if some trades result in losses, profitable trades should outweigh them over time.
G - Gradual Position Sizing
Avoid going all-in on a single trade. Gradually scale into positions, especially in volatile markets. This way, you can manage risk and adjust your exposure as market conditions change.
Conclusion
As you venture into the exciting world of stock trading, remember that managing risk is paramount to long-term success. By following the ABCs of risk management - assessing risk tolerance, balancing diversification, cutting losses with stop-loss orders, doing due diligence, managing emotions, focusing on risk-reward ratio, and employing gradual position sizing - you can navigate the markets with confidence and achieve your trading goals.
Stay disciplined, stay informed, and let effective risk management be the cornerstone of your stock trading journey. Happy trading and may your endeavors be both rewarding and fulfilling!
How To Lose Small When Trading BigLosing trades aren't always bad. It's when you don't manage the trade before you lose that can make losing trades bad.
Let me walk you through 4 positions that I stacked week and show you how I avoided losing thousands of dollars and kept the loss to under 1%.
Firstly, it's important to understand that I am a swing trader which means I observe a variety of higher timeframes.
Secondly, I use my own strategy called TMP. It's based around every pullback within the trend cycles so I can trade the continuation of the trend.
Thirdly, This analysis was mostly done on the weekly, daily, 4 hour, and 2 hour timeframe.
Lastly, I aim for more than 2:1 reward to risk trades and for these trades I was sure to keep my losses below $500 a trade.
Trade 1
s3.tradingview.com
This trade was based on the weekly timeframe. The reward to risk was around 4.50 and I knew I'd be in this trade long term. Probably around a month or so, maybe longer.
I risked 0.50% in the trade because I needed to build the analysis and I knew I wanted to stack more trades in case price went my way which you will see me begin to build in the new few trades.
Trade 2
s3.tradingview.com
This trade was based on the 4 hour timeframe. Price made a new higher high on the 4 hour. I set a pending order so when price pulled back it would trigger me into the trade.
This trade was a 8:1 reward to risk ratio. I risked 0.50% on this trade.
Price began to go my way. I felt good about the trade.
Trade 3- Trailing the stop begins
s3.tradingview.com
Price made a new higher high. I had to drop down to the 2 hour timeframe to get a good view of this trade. My feelings on this trade was neutral. I reminded my self that no matter what I'd follow my rules. So I set another pending order and went about my day.
The Reward to risk on this trade was a 16:1.
I risked 0.25% on this trade.
Now at this time I'm sitting at 1.25% of risk in 3 trades.
This was when I decided to move my stop loss on both trades underneath the third trades higher low.
I had just a little risk left on both of these trades but nothing heart stopping.
I was stoped out of the third position for a for around -0.27%. But my first two trades continued to run.
Trade 4- The last stand
s3.tradingview.com
Then price went my way. I realized I wanted to be long again and the entry sat right where I'd just entered my precious losing trade.
The reward to risk was 19:1. Whew! This was the opportunity of opportunities for me this week and I couldn't avoid entering.
So I set another pending order to buy. It triggered and a few hours later, I lost the trade. and my other trades were taken out as well.
I lost a total of $761.
This was only 0.76% loss in my account because of how I managed my trades as price went up in profit.
Had I kept my trades at the same risk(1%) and never moved my stop loss I could have lost $4000 this week.
The key to losing small is to build out your positions each time price makes a new high or low depending on the direction of the trade.
I built 4 positions and I have to say I would do it again. The potential for big rewards to risk got me, and I knew risk 1% on each trade would have meant I'd lose my funded account due to their drawdown rules. I cannot lose 3% in one day. Thats very manageable when you decrease your risk per trade.
Thats what had to be done.
If you don't think you can pass a challenge by decreasing you risk, your rewards aren't big enough.
If you learn anything from the trades I entered this week, the previous statement above is how can lose small while trading big.
Do I still believe NZDCAD can go up? Yes!
As long as price stays above the weekly higher low. I'll build out this scenario again.
Well, I really do pray you enjoyed this recap from my trading this week. I had no other trades on my other currency pair so it was a smooth trading week.
Be sure to like this article if you enjoyed it and found it intriguing. If you have any questions do ask them below.
Much love and blessing❤️
Shaquan
🔥 OG Low Volatility Accumulation Break OutOG saw an incredibly bullish move earlier this year, where it gained over 350% in a mere two days. However, since topping around 16$ OG has been falling with no end in sight.
This trade is based on the idea that OG is currently in a horizontal accumulation phase (purple area) and will soon, helped by Bitcoin, move back up towards the 2023 highs.
Most likely, Bitcoin will have to break out through 31,000$ in order to give investors the confidence to launch OG upwards.
Stop just below the most recent June lows, target at 15$. With a tight stop we managed to construct a very high risk-reward trade that most likely has a high expected return. A more defensive strategy would be to take partial profits around 9.5$.
🔥 GRT Patient For Break Out: Pump Potential!After a huge pump earlier this year, GRT has largely been trading bearish and losing value. However, a break out through the dotted diagonal resistance could be the catalyst to set off another pump for this token.
Target placed at the 2023 highs, stop just below 0.12$. For a less risky trade you could take (partial) profits around 0.17$.
🔥 ID Potentially One Of The Best Trades Of The YearI've been following ID for a while now, with my previous analysis below. No entry was made before, but this time we will.
ID has currently broken through a 3 month bearish resistance, which can potentially trigger a huge influx of both buyers and shorts that will close their positions, both very bullish.
For the best risk-reward I'm looking at a 1$ target, stop just below the resistance. A more conservative bet would be to take (partial) profits at 0.50$, or put the stop around 0.245$.
GOLD's Next Move (^///^) 1974Gold made its way to our 1955 level. We took profit on our buys from 1930-1933 range to close for +250 pip move. We took a 30-pip loss on 1955 level after it was broken and reset for buys on the new candle. We will risk buying here from 1954 sl 1950 we will aim to take this to 1974. If price breaks back under 1954 , we will likely stay out and wait for better entry (1913). We will take gold level to level keeping an eye on price action.
I want to share with you some points about Risk ManagementThis topic is so important, that´s why I wanted to share it with you and hope I can reach as much people as possible. Hope it will help some :)
I saw in the last years many who crashed their accounts very hard, they lost a lot of money and for some it was very dreadful!
It is hard to watch this people how they burn money and bring even his own family in financial danger. That´s why risk management in trading is so heavily important, to keep yourself and your life in balance.
May be some will find very helpful, or some will remember this rules again :)
I will keep it a bit shorter here as in my book, but the main points are still mentioned!
I can´t say it often enough, always keep your rules during trading. Trading is not the way to get rich quick, it is a serious and hard business! It take a lot of time to learn, it requires a lot of patience and it will happen a lot of failures.
This failures are even more important than your success! Success will not open up how it will not work, failures will.
But let´s talk about risk management!
For each investment you have to consider you take for each trade the risk to lose money, that´s why it is mandatory to handle each investment with a good risk/reward distribution.
You have to keep in mind, the determined risk/reward is only theoretically and can result complete different. But with knowledge you can dedicate a good entry for your trades to keep your risk as low as possible.
Determine important support and resistance levels and think about all situations what could happen and what will you do, if you are going into the red or into the green? Which levels are the best entries and exits?
This all will help you to determine your riks/reward ratio.
What is the Risk/Reward Ratio?
Successful day traders are generally aware of both, the potential risk and potential reward before entering a trade.
The goal of a day trader is to place trades where the potential reward outweighs the potential risk.
These trades would be considered to have a good risk/reward ratio.
A risk/reward ratio is simply the amount of money you plan to risk, compared to the amount of money you believe you can gain.
For example, if you think a potential trade may result in either a $400 profit or $100 loss, the trade would have a risk/reward ratio of 1:4, making it a favorable setup. Contrarily, if you risk $100 to make $100, the trade has a risk/reward ratio of 1:1, giving you the same type of unfavorable odds that you can find in a casino.
Which ratio should you desire?
Like described above, finding trades with high risk/reward ratios (1:2 or higher), will help you maintain higher average profits and lower average losses, making your trading strategy more sustainable.
The common suggestion between traders is a distribution of minimum 1:2 ratio. In reality there are often even better ratios available, if you do your technical chart analysis or financial stock analysis.
But what should you do if you have to cut losses?
We have to place our stop loss right below our support or other important levels we determined before.
The purpose is to cut losses before they grow too large. Stopping out of a losing trade can be one of the hardest things for traders to do consistently. However, failing to take stops can result in margin calls, unnecessarily large losses, and ultimately account blowouts.
How big should I enter a position?
To lower your risk I recommend to think about your size to enter a position.
Overall you shouldn´t risk money you need, only deposit money in your broker you can afford.
Entering small can be the smartest way to safe your account. I suggest that because of four reasons:
1. You don´t risk to much of your funds and your stop loss should be tight anyway.
2. You can average down if the price is going in the other direction, but consider this option only if you are sure what you are doing.
3. You can buy the dips/pullbacks if the trend is strong and still heading in your desired direction.
4. Your emotional control is stronger if the price movement is heading in the wrong direction.
This brings us to the next topic.
Should you use leverage?
Yes I know, big leverage will give you big gains...but as a beginner you will not have the experience to know which trade has a very big potential or not.
Even experienced traders use only a small amount to enter a position and not the whole fund.
If you use leverage the losses can be much higher and the problem with that is, if you lose money, your leverage will also decrease significantly and the losses are harder to recover after each loss.
So what is the answer of the question, should you use leverage?
For beginners we can easily answer: Take your hands of a big leverage!
You can so hardly blow up yourself with that tool, it is ridiculous. Your way back into the profit zone will probably take years.
But you have to save yourself and after a period of time, a period of taking profits and cutting losses you will gain knowledge until you feel much more comfortable on the market and you understand how trading really works, then you can consider to use leverage.
Conclusion:
As I said, I want to share only some big points about this topic, simple and understandable, because I think many new investors don´t understand how important that topic is!
Safe yourself and have fun in trading and learning!
Sincerely,
TradeandGrow
Trade safe!
USDJPY | H1 | UpdateUSDJPY update, looking at USDJPY now based on my initial analysis we can see that the USDJPY tanked as per the initial forecast, there was some volatility during the course of the week due to fundamental events surrounding the USD which also acted as a catalyst towards increasing the overall momentum as we would’ve noticed with today’s NFP announcement.
But looking back we can take note that USDJPY created a short term trading range between 144.19x and 144.68x before breaking out of our minor support level at 144.19x then came back to retest that level and confirm it as our new resistance after the announcement of the US ADP Employment Change yesterday before tumbling further down. Today’s NFP announcement acted as a further catalyst pushing USDJPY to break through our initial target and support at 142.8xx & 142.6xx now we’re looking forward to it pushing further down to 141.2xx
🔥 Is Bitcoin Finally Breaking Out? High Volatility SignalBTC is seeing very start of the day, bring it all the way to the top of the range that we've been trading in for weeks now. Every time we broke above 31k, BTC sold off shortly after, so wait for the 4H candle to close above the range to confirm the break out.
With all the ETF announcments I'm expecting strong volatility. For the best risk-reward I'm looking at a 39k target, would be surprised if we can break above it.
I chose for 39k because it's around the middle of my Elliot Waves analysis range, see below.
Stop below the most recent swing low. For higher risk-reward you could place the stop around 30,5k. For a lower risk trade, consider taking (partial) profits around 33k and 35k.
Educational: The issue with high risk to reward🔶 Introduction
A high win rate—that is, the proportion of trades that result in profits—is appealing to many traders. They might believe that being lucrative requires a high win rate, or that it will increase their self-assurance and lessen their tension. A trader's performance may be negatively impacted over time if they have a high win rate, which is not a guarantee that they will be profitable. We will discuss the problem with high risk to reward and win rates in trading in this publication and why they are not the best measures of success.
🔶 Risk to reward and win rate
Two ideas that are frequently used to gauge the effectiveness of a trading system or strategy are the risk to reward ratio and win rate. The risk to reward ratio calculates how much a trader is prepared to lose in exchange for a possible gain. A trader's risk to reward ratio, for instance, is 1:2 if they stake $100 in order to gain $200. The win rate calculates the percentage of trades that a trader wins out of all the trades they place. For instance, a trader's win rate is 80% if they win 80 out of every 100 trades.
🔶 Inverse Relationship between Risk to Reward Ratio and Win Rate
One would believe that a successful trader should have a high win rate together with a high risk to reward ratio. This isn't always the case, though. In fact, the risk to reward ratio and win rate have an inverse connection, which means that when one goes up, the other goes down. This is due to the fact that the likelihood of achieving a reward decreases as it increases in potential, and vice versa. For example, if a trader aims for a 10:1 risk to reward ratio, they will have to find a very rare opportunity where they can risk $100 to make $1000, which is unlikely to happen often. On the other hand, if a trader aims for a 1:1 risk to reward ratio, they will have more chances of finding trades where they can risk $100 to make $100, but they will also have to win more than half of their trades to be profitable.
🔶 Importance of Positive Expectation
Therefore, unless a trader also has a positive expectation, which is the average amount of money they gain or lose every deal, having a high win rate does not necessarily indicate that they are a profitable trader. The risk to reward ratio is multiplied by the win rate, and the loss rate—which equals 1 less than the win rate—is subtracted to determine the expectation. For instance, a trader's expectation is as follows if they have a 2:1 risk to reward ratio and a 60% win rate:
Expectancy = (2 x 0.6) - (1 x 0.4) = 0.8
This indicates that they profit by $0.8 every trade on average. However, if their win rate remains at 60% and their risk to reward ratio falls to 1:1, their anticipation changes to:
Expectancy = (1 x 0.6) - (1 x 0.4) = 0.2
This means that on average, they make only $0.2 per trade. As you can see, having a high win rate does not guarantee profitability, unless it is accompanied by a high enough risk to reward ratio.
🔶 The Limitations of High Risk-to-Reward Ratio and Win Rate
High win rates can also be problematic because they might make traders overconfident and complacent. They might neglect the risks and uncertainties associated with trading because they believe they have discovered a perfect technique or plan that will always work in their favor. A second possibility is that they grow emotionally attached to their winning streaks and worry about losing them, which can lead them to stray from their trading strategy or take unwarranted risks. Furthermore, a high success rate may make traders more susceptible to cognitive errors like confirmation bias and hindsight bias, which can skew their judgment.
🔶 Conclusion
It may not be as desirable as it may seem to have a high risk-to-reward ratio and win rate when trading. It does not necessarily imply that a trader is successful or profitable, and it may also have some negatives that adversely impact their performance. For long-term trading success, traders should pay more attention to other elements than only these indicators, such as expectancy, consistency, risk management, and emotional control.
🔥 ID Breaking Out Of Bear Trend: Huge Potential!ID has been trading bearish for 2.5 months, losing over 75% of its total value in the process.
However, it seems that there might be an end to the selling. ID is currently underway of breaking out through the dotted diagonal resistance line. Wait for the 8H candle to close above the line to confirm the break out and scout an entry.
Target placed at 1.00, stop below the recent swing low. This trade gives us an amazing 11.6 risk-reward. For a less risky trade you could take (partial) profits around 0.50 or 0.75
⚖️ How Much You Need To Recover LossesWhen an investment's value fluctuates, the amount of money required to bring it back to its initial value is equal to the amount of change, but with the opposite sign. When expressed as a percentage, the gain and loss percentages will be different. This is because the same dollar amount is being calculated as a percentage of two different initial amounts.
📌The formula is expressed as a change from the initial value to the final value.
Percentage change = ( Final value − Initial value ) / Initial value ∗ 100
Examples:
🔹 With a loss of 10%, one needs a gain of about 11% to recover. (A market correction)
🔹 With a loss of 20%, one needs a gain of 25% to recover. (A bear market)
🔹 With a loss of 30%, one needs a gain of about 43% to recover.
🔹 With a loss of 40%, one needs a gain of about 67% to recover.
🔹 With a loss of 50%, one needs a gain of 100% to recover.
(If you lose half your money you need to double what you have left to get back to even.)
🔹 With a loss of 100%, you are starting over from zero. And remember, anything multiplied by zero is still zero.
As the plot graph showcased on the idea, after a percentage loss, the plot shows that you always need a larger percentage increase to come back to the same value
To understand this, we can look at the following example:
$1,000 = starting value
$ 900 = $1,000 - (10% of $1,000), a drop of 10%
$ 990 = $ 900 + (10% of $900), followed by a gain of 10%
The ending value of $990 is less than the starting value of $1,000.
🧠 Psychological Aspect:
Investors should be able to mentally admit that they have incurred a loss, which is expected in trading. The investor should give some time to heal the process and only keep a close watch on the market situation. Huge losses incurred might disrupt the decision-making skill and stop trading for a few days until the confidence is regained. There should be the right focus to approach the right opportunities, and there should not be any regrets of any loss during trading.
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How to do ration of win/loss in option trading?
The ratio of win/loss in trading is an important metric that helps evaluate the effectiveness of your trading strategy. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to calculate and improve your win/loss ratio:
1| Keep meticulous records: Start by maintaining a comprehensive trading journal where you record every trade you make. Include details such as entry and exit points, trade size, and the outcome (win or loss).
2| Determine the number of winning trades: Review your trading journal and count the total number of trades that resulted in a profit. This will be your "number of winning trades."
3| Calculate the number of losing trades: Similarly, determine the total number of trades that ended in a loss. This will be your "number of losing trades."
4| Calculate the win/loss ratio: Divide the number of winning trades by the number of losing trades. For example, if you had 40 winning trades and 20 losing trades, your win/loss ratio would be 2:1 (40/20).
5| Analyze and improve: Once you have your win/loss ratio, assess your trading strategy and identify areas for improvement. Focus on enhancing your risk management techniques, refining your entry and exit strategies, and ensuring proper trade selection.
6| Set realistic expectations: It's crucial to understand that a high win/loss ratio alone does not guarantee profitability. Consider other metrics like the average size of your winning and losing trades, as well as the overall risk-to-reward ratio.
Remember, trading is a dynamic process, and ratios can fluctuate over time. Strive for continuous improvement, adapt to changing market conditions, and always prioritize risk management to achieve long-term success in trading.
🔥 STG Breaking Out: High Risk Reward PotentialSTG has been trading bearish for almost all year. However, as of this morning the dotted purple resistance has been broken, giving way for more potential growth in the near future.
My target is the 2023 top, stop under the recent swing low. A more defensive trade would be to take partial profits around 0.72 and/or 0.95
📊 7 Steps To Plan Your TradingHere are 7 steps to consider before entering a trade. Pick one or multiple options for each step to incorporate into your plan.
🔷 Timeframe: This step involves determining the desired timeframe for the trade, which can vary from day trading on shorter timeframes (m15 to h1), swing trading on intermediate timeframes (h4 to d1), or position trading on longer timeframes (d1 to w1). Choosing the appropriate timeframe helps establish the trade duration and the level of monitoring required.
🔷 Risk Management: This step focuses on determining the level of risk to allocate to each trade. It is recommended to risk a certain percentage of capital per trade, typically ranging from 1% to 3%. This ensures that losses are limited and helps maintain consistent risk across trades.
🔷 Conditions: Identifying market conditions is crucial for trade planning. Traders need to assess whether the market is ranging (moving within a defined price range) or trending (showing a clear upward or downward direction). Understanding the prevailing market conditions helps in selecting appropriate trading strategies and indicators.
🔷 Markets: This step involves selecting the specific financial markets or instruments in which to trade. Traders can choose from a wide range of options, such as equities (stocks), options, bonds, futures or Crypto. The choice depends on individual preferences, market knowledge, and the availability of suitable trading opportunities.
🔷 Entries: Determining entry points is essential for initiating a trade. This step involves selecting entry strategies based on the identified market conditions. Common entry methods include taking advantage of pullbacks (temporary price retracements within a trend), breakouts (entering when price surpasses a key level), or trading news events that can cause significant price movements.
🔷 Stops: Placing stop-loss orders is crucial for managing risk and protecting capital. Traders need to determine stop levels that are strategically placed away from market structures, such as support and resistance levels. This helps minimize the chances of premature stop-outs due to normal market fluctuations while still ensuring that losses are controlled.
🔷 Targets: Setting profit targets is essential for determining when to exit a trade. Traders can choose between fixed targets, where a predetermined price level is identified to take profits, or trailing stops, where the stop-loss order is adjusted as the trade moves in the trader's favor. Both approaches aim to capture gains and lock in profits while allowing the trade to run if the market continues to move favorably.
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🔥 FET Bullish Reversal Trade: Patience!FET has been trading bearish for months. As of a couple of days ago, BTC saw a huge break out which will likely take alts with it. This trade assumes that FET, an early 2023 winner, will move up together with BTC.
I'm waiting for the break out through the top diagonal resistance. Once a daily candle has closed above said resistance, we're entering from around that level. Target at the 2023 top for the highest risk-reward. If you're more risk averse, consider taking (partial) profits around 0.30 or 0.40
Risk Reward Ratio ExpainedThe key to becoming successful as a Forex trader is to find the right balance between how much you risk per trade to achieve the desired profit you are aiming for. This balance needs to be realistic and relevant to the technical strategy you are applying. You need to combine risk reward with your strategy.
The risk-reward ratio is simply a calculation of how much you are willing to risk in a trade, versus how much you plan to aim for as a profit target. To keep it simple, if you were making a trade and you only wanted to set your stop loss at five pips and set your take profit at 20 pips, your risk reward ratio would be 5:20 or 1:4. You are risking five pips for the chance to gain 20 pips. The basic theory for the risk-reward ratio is to look for opportunities where the reward outweighs the risk. The greater the possible rewards, the more failed trades your account can withstand at a time. When it comes down to it, it is up to you as a trader to figure out what type of risk-reward ratio you want to use. You should try to avoid having your risk be bigger than your reward, particularly if you are a beginner, but there is no particular ratio that works for all traders. The important thing is that you use a ratio that makes sense for your trading style and for market conditions!
I recommend to use 1:2 risk reward ratio.
Have a great day 📊