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Riskreward

Predicting the bottom of AvalancheAVAX/USDT.P on BYBIT Looks like the W-X-Y pattern is coming to an end and we will try to predict the bottom as best we can to catch a swing trade of wave C or even a 3 and a new rally. If the count is right and the weekly support level at 13.910 does not hold, a one to one (of the W-X-Y) price target will be next. We could speculate the weekly level then will serve as a SR flip to confirm the start of the last wave 5. Watch out for the weekly bar ending as a spinning top or doji for a bullish reversal up to wave 4 of 3 of C of Y in the last zig zag. Risk For me the stop level would be either right under weekly level at 12.180 or at the low of 10.535 also giving a double bottom setup. If we se it go all the wave to the high of wave A we could se a Risk/Reward ratio at a proximally 6. Targets First target for locking in profit would be the weekly level at 13.910 then we have the point of control for the whole correction at 17.285 and the high of A or 1 at 22.795. Avalanche Market Cap Avalanche market cap is now ricing to $4,741,712,576 and as of writing the trading volume (24h) is $132,773,075. Conclusion I will continue watching the price action on Avalanche and if it will continue to decline and unfold in way similar to the predicted pattern. It could be an interesting swing trade to the upside for a low risk.
Long
by Ingvar77
Stubborn EURUSD protects 🛡️1.076 Daily Level FOMC Meeting Minutes is coinciding with a touch into our Daily Support Level that has held since last Thursday. It's almost been an entire week since the decline has been halted. Yesterday we created a publishing about a potential double bottom, but we may have jumped the gun so to speak. The market may have needed more time to accumulate long orders and trap short liquidity. The Market appears to keep banging its head stubbornly against our 1.076 Daily Level. This morning thus far we could observe a volatile 40 pip range between 1.0795 and 1.075. Day traders have been having a hell of a time. This market reminds me of the FOMC Interest rate announcement about 3 weeks ago. It was a volatile range and turned out to be the turning point in favor of the bears for Eurusd. The market used FOMC as a turning point recently and I think we may see another occurrence as the market shakes out Buyers and Sellers with this volatile price action. Similar to the CPI news shaking out weak sellers 2 week ago, this market may increase. The price is low but the Sellers don't look necessarily persistent in their effort to sell into the 1.076 Daily Level. The Buyers on the other hand are happy to go long at our Daily Support Level as it offers great risk to reward. Price is has made a new low during London but was quickly bought up at our pre-planned 1hr support zone 1.0749. I liken price to return to our 1.08125 Daily Level as we continue to see a volatile range and fight in the 1.07's for Eurusd. I've struggled in my scalping of Eurusd this week and attribute it to psychology. Trading psychology is a very large part of trading and requires constant attention. It must be managed properly and is a skill just as developing a profitable system that suits your personality. It takes time to understand your weaknesses and strengths as a trader. This week I've had a particularly difficult time managing my weaknesses. Time and Patience is the greatest warrior and so I will come back stronger at a later time. Safe trading.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Bitcoin Scalping PlanHello friends. According to following reasons i personally go LONG for BTC/USD : 1 - Reach the Higher Timeframe Valid trendline. 2- shape an Bullish Engulfing pattern on this line. 3-Reach the 27000 support level. 4-Bullish divergence Between Price and RSI. 5-Long distance from 50 , 100 and 200 EMA So for these reasons i think we can go up till drawn trendline and price 28200. Trade R/R is 1:2 and after that we should look after price for next analysis. Thanks for your supports.
Long
by TraderAmin-KZ
4
Shadow Banking The shadow banking system is something you're probably not familiar with. Until today! the shadow banking system is made up of mainly investment banks i.e. your market whales or market makers, money market funds i.e. like schwab and vanguard, and hedge funds. these financial entities dont give out loans to you or I, but rather trade amongst themselves. which is what is known as the shadow banking system. one of the main functions of the Shadow Banking system is to provide liquidity aka money (which is mostly made up anyways) to the financial system. for example if a whale wants to move a massive amount of money into a position, or what happened to Zimbabwe a while back and give an entire nation a loan at a ridiculous amount of interest they're able to do so, or take a massive position in a promising opportunity and need capital fast! How does this work? How do you ensure that a hedge fund will pay back on their loan? collateral! Usually in the form of government issued bonds and bills. one can trade an equilivent amount of t-bills plus interest for X-amount of dollars to carry out said transaction. example: Hedge fund A wants to take a position shorting the RMBS market. (strictly coincidental) Hedge Fund A is so confident in their analysis they are willing to take a whales position. they need the capital. well like all good risk management practices they have off set their high beta shares with low risk positions. the lowest risk investment you can have is a US Bond or Treasury Bill. So, Investment bank A says okay I can lend you 10 Billion Dollars at a 4% interest rate per day for 3 days, if you default I keep your Bonds. The swap happens. Now, Hedge Fund A has not only to make their money back on the bond trade, but they have to make at least 4.01% to make the trade profitable and they have 3 days to do it. Another way this can be done is Hedge Fund B says I too am going to short the RMBS market but i am going to offer it to all the investment banks and other hedge funds. So they offer it as an investment opportunity. the offering fund takes a small fee and the winnings or losings are dealt accordingly. while this might sound a a little familiar... well it is! names and places have been changed to protect the innocent. The major critique the financial system has with this Shadow Banking is that its not really regulated. becasue going back to our example with Hedge Fund A If Hedge Fund A Doesnt pay then Investment Bank A can shoot their interest rate from 4% to 40% in one day making the loan almost impossible to pay back causing the Hedge Fund to collapse and all the unsuspecting investors in the Hedge Fund are out of pocket. Or my personal favorite. Lets Say Hedge Fund (HFA) A is going to short the RMBS market with a 10 Billion dollar Position for 3 days and Investment Bank A (IBA) wants to short the CMBS market with a $20 billion position for 5 days. well the trade between HFA and IBA happens 10 billion will float to HFA at a 4% interest rate per day for 3 days. Now, IBA wants to short CMBSs they will approach Life Insurance Group A (LIA) and will offer $20 billion dollars in bonds 10 from their reserve and the 10 billion from HFA. at a 5% per day interest rate for 5 days. Now, you might see the problem. but i will continue. Day 3 is up. HFA made their little profit. IBA doesnt have their bonds (because theyre with LIA). So, IBA will probably give HFA 10 billion of their own bonds which for this post is what happens. HFA is squared away with IBA. Now, in the 5 days that IBA is holding LIAs money the fed decided to raise interest rates 200 base points. the bond market yields sky rocket causing their prices to plummet. but fortunately IBA made 10% on their risk they pay LIA their 5% interest and take a 5% loss on their bonds and come out BE or Break even. As you can see in this overly simplified example how if any one part of these parties failed it could be detrimental for a lot of people. Because peoples pensions are held by hedge funds, countries and other governments have their investments with the Investment Bank peoples money and loans are held with the Life Insurance groups. I believe this shadow banking system is also the Stock Markets (yes the entire stock markets) Stop Loss!
K
by ARegularGuy
The Story of a Failed Trader | OKXIDEASOnce upon a time there was a man who was a very poor and he belong to a middle class family but he had the ability to dream it. He was 20 years old and he also think that he spend all of had 20 years doing nothing, he was a dreamer. He wanted to become a rich man, he finding ways to become a rich man, he tried almost every thing but failed. One day he watched a video about trading on YouTube and he decided to become a trader, become a rich with trading and fulfill all of had dreams. He started to learn trading, he watched all of educational videos about trading on YouTube and spend had 15 hours every day just watching videos, now he knows about the basic trading he shifted to the analysis part of trading, he started to practice and learn the technical analysis. He find the method that he can trade with, he combined some technical indicator signals and created strategy for himself. Now he had very passionate about trading, wanted to open a real account and start trading with real account. He had some saving money around 500 dollar he deposited that money in the real account and start trading with that money. He started dreaming from the first day of trading and created some trading rules for himself like he had to take 10% risk per trade and don't take that trade which is below 1/1 risk to reward ratio. On the first day he had taken almost 3 trades and win all of them, now he was more excited for trading he had made $192 profit means something around 38% profit on 500 dollar account. He wanted to trade more but he was a little bit smarter one, he think that i am in profit and my wining ratio is 100% so why i just damage my wining ratio and why i just risk my today profit so he had decided to come back tomorrow. On the second day he had $692 total balance in the account, he had to play a little bit more smarter than a previous day and he decided to take 10% risk per trade of the current total balance $692 in the account rather than the starting balance which is $500. On the second day he take almost 4 trades and he won 2 trades out of 4 trades, now the account condition had almost break-even no loss & no profit, he decided to try again and trade more, he finding the reason to trade more and then he calculate today and yesterday total taken trades which is 7 trades, he think that i won 5 trades out of 7 trades so my wining ratio is almost around 70% which is good and i can trade more because my wining ratio is still above 50% so i am still in positive side. He trade almost 3 trades again and he lose all of them, now he had very sad and almost broken, he decided to step back and come back later. He sturdy himself and come back on the third day, now he had facing a little bit draw-down on the third day the total account balance is around 484 dollar, he started looking for the trades opportunity and at the end of the day he took almost 5 trades with the 10% risk per trade but the third day results had also again bad and he lose 4 trades out of 5 and just win 1 trade, he had very shameful from himself, he closed the laptop goes to outdoor and talk to himself. He analysis the current situation of the account, it that point the total account balance is around 276 dollar he almost around 45% in draw-down and the wining ratio had below 50% so now he entered to the negative side. On the fourth day morning he traded 2 trades and he lose both of them now he almost lose the hope and the account condition had around 72% in draw-down and he left only 138 dollar in the account. At the time he give up and he just decided to depend on just one trade, he just waiting for the best opportunity of the day and finally he got the trade but at the end he lose that trade again and he almost blow out had account. After that all he had stressful and sad from almost one week, he decided to leave the trading and move on to the next thing and he looking to find other things that suitable for him because he think that trading is not suitable for him. One month later he just scrolling on the internet and he see the FAQ that 90% of traders lose and only 10% had succeed, now he had a little bit shock and he think that its pretty normal every trader in the 90% had facing that stage which stage that i faced. He decided to come back to trading and start from the zero, he started to modify had strategy and created new rules for had strategy like he set this time risk to reward ratio for had trades is minimum 1/2 and he decided to risk only 2% of the total account also he decided to take only 2 trades per day, this time he opened the demo account rather than the real account and start trading with demo account, he decided to journal had journey and after one month of consistency he hadn't break any rules and when he see the results after month he had profitable, now he feel like stronger and he continue the journey with that same demo account after three months he had similar results and still profitable. In that time he think that i don't have much money and in trading it's required a lot of money to earn a lot of profits, he started to search for that how he had to prove himself to big investors and raise money for himself to trade. One day he searching and he knows about prop firms trading now he had interested in that and wanted to know more about prop firms, he think that this is the big opportunity for himself to become succeed quickly, now he decided to trade with prop firms and buy the challenge from the prop firms, he adjusted had strategy rules and trading plan according to the prop firms requirement, now but the only problem is that he don't have money to actually buy the prop firms challenge. By the way he was dropout from the school after completing had secondary education and so he just setting at the home, he don't have much money to buy the challenge, the pocket money of him had just depend on him father and he hadn't want to say to father to give me extra money because of him father was very poor and he work as a taxi driver, so then he had decided to get the any kind of job for himself and try to earn some money in the form of salary and buy the challenge with that money, he worked hard and after one month he got the salary and then he just swift to the prop firm website and buy the $50000 account challenge for himself, now he started trading with challenge account phase one, on the phase one he decided to risk only 1% per trade, take only 2 trades a day and the every trade risk to reward ratio had to minimum 1/2 after one month of consistency he gained +8% profit, he was in profit but he hadn't achieved the prop firm required profit target which is +10% in that case prop firm gives traders free retake so then he take the challenge again with the new account and new month from zero and he think that my wining ratio for the previous month is almost around 40% with minimum 1/2 risk to reward ratio and my daily limit is 2 trades so i need to increase my daily limit from 2 to 3 because if i traded with the same rule 2 trades a day then i hadn't pass with 40% wining ratio. He calculate some numbers like he think, if i take 3 trades per day so then at the end of the month my all trades had to be 60 trades per month and if i maintain my 40% wining ratio then i can easily pass the challenge with that mindset he started the challenge and strictly follow the rules after month he hadn't maintain the 40% wining ratio and he end up with some loss and failed the challenge, this time he almost faced big depression after some days left he realized had mistake and he think i made mistake that i increase my daily trades limit because of this my wining accuracy goes down, i just forced myself to take 3 trades per day and get trapped into the normal trades. At that time he hadn't left any pathway he almost try everything but at the end he faced failure, him father had now getting older and he decided to step back again he start going to the normal job and start saving 30% of had salary, he do that job for almost one year and after one year later he had some saved money in the bank account to buy multiple 10x challenges, he come back to the trading but this time he hadn't leave the job and he do trading like part time thing. He started had journey again he decided to hadn't give up and repeat the process so then he started buying challenges after one by one in some challenges he failed in phase one in some he failed in phase two in some he almost pass the challenge and got the live funded account but hadn't get payout and lose the account in the first month. The journey had started goes on and he just repeating the process and doing try again and again. Will be continued..... Some lessons from the story > Never open real account in the start, try to learn first on demo account. > Don't try to be smart in the front of the market. > Don't lose hope in draw-downs just repeat the process of your trading plan. > Take every trade with the hope of wining. > Never depend on a single trade. > Don't leave too fast stay in the market. > Give yourself enough time to create the solid proven strategy that works at least for you. > Respect your trading limits. > Don't depend on just trading and never leave your job, consider trading like part-time thing in the starting. > Learn from your mistakes and improve your performance. > Make mistakes but don't repeat that mistakes again. > Never depend on small capital always look for an opportunity. > Journal your journey, record your trading performance and improve next time. > Don't fear from failure. > Be patient, market is here not going anywhere. > Don't force yourself to take normal trades wait for good opportunity always. > Don't count the numbers, you need to count the percentage. > Don't try to be rich quickly. > Step back, if you damaged from market then simply step back and come back stronger don't try to fight. If you learned any other lessons from the story, let me know in the comments. What you feel about one day he will be succeed or just the failure always, also let me know in the comments. I hope you enjoyed the story, appreciate my work with like comments and share. I wish you good luck in trading.
Education
by TheLoserMan
1
⚠️ Risk Management Examples Showcase📍What Is the Risk/Reward Ratio? The risk/reward ratio marks the prospective reward an investor can earn for every dollar they risk on an investment. Many investors use risk/reward ratios to compare the expected returns of an investment with the amount of risk they must undertake to earn these returns. A lower risk/return ratio is often preferable as it signals less risk for an equivalent potential gain. 📍Consider the showcased example: An investment with a risk-reward ratio of 1:3 suggests that an investor is willing to risk $100, for the prospect of earning $300. Alternatively, a risk/reward ratio of 1:4 signals that an investor should expect to invest $100, for the prospect of earning $300 on their investment. Traders often use this approach to plan which trades to take, and the ratio is calculated by dividing the amount a trader stands to lose if the price of an asset moves in an unexpected direction (the risk) by the amount of profit the trader expects to have made when the position is closed (the reward). It is very important to calculate your R:R before entering a trade. Sometimes the trade might not be worth the amount you're risking vs the reward you can get. 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Education
by QuantVue
2
Fantom outperform Bitcoin?Hello I'll start to make once per week update from some chart now on, so better stay tuned. Fantom looks really good against Bitcoin as long as price stays on top of that key level which I marked clearly with arrows . You can see from the chart what happened last time it broke that level. If we can't hold the level I let my risk managment do the work and look for new opportunity if the price comes back on top We can also break and retest the level which actually happens quite often if you stay patience Ethereum has also been outperforming Btc for 2 weeks now so that would support this and maybe move some money to alts. Everything depends of the Bitcoin Dominance chart. Let's check some bigger time frame also Not financial advice If you do take trades always use stop loss! 1st mistake novice traders do I don't use them and their ass burned! Check out my previous work "I think bottom is in" -Palén
Long
by PalenTrade
Continuation Wedge (Bullish) | 37% move possibleDirexion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares forms bullish "Continuation Wedge" chart pattern "Continuation Wedge (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares (WEBS:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $20.30 to the range of $27.00 - $28.50. The pattern formed over 15 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis. Tells Me: After a temporary interruption, the prior uptrend is set to continue. A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
AMEX:WEBSLong
by moneytalkstome
Simple Math Defies Logic"The ones who make the most money lose the least when they are wrong" Let's use a scalping trading style for example Say you have a set risk reward ratio of -10 pips for being wrong +30 pips for being right Start trading Loss Loss Loss Win Loss Loss Loss Loss Loss Win Loss Loss Loss Win Win Loss Loss Win Loss Loss Wow, a lot of losses, but hold on.... You have the same amount of money you started with, minus maybe a small bit on commission. How does that happen? Let's put the running total (pips) next to each trade Loss -10 Loss -20 Loss -30 Win 0 Loss -10 Loss -20 Loss -30 Loss -40 Loss -50 Win -20 Loss -30 Loss -40 Loss -50 Win -20 Win +10 Loss 0 Loss -10 Win +20 Loss +10 Loss 0 Final for the day = 0 ( -1.5 - 2.5 pips for commissions) Accuracy rate: 30% So in simple terms, by just using a simple risk management set up that allows you to win more than 1x the risk, you do not have to have a very high accuracy rate in order to make even a small profit. It is very difficult to keep your mind in check about this simple math, because we look at each trade on it's own, instead of looking at a series of trades (for a day/week/month) to judge performance. Keeping the overall picture in mind, and just making sure you do not allow more risk on a position than you planned, and most cases you will begin to see an improvement on trading. By not using stops, losses can quickly mount up, because losing streaks happen. Stick to the plan, and let your mind just sit in the corner mad about the stop rules (Ignore the feeling, like a 2 year old that didn't get ice cream, or because they weren't right, & just remember the math). *If you move your stop, one of two things apply: You are either finding more support for the idea, just a bad entry. Move the stop to what you would risk as an additional position had you taken the trade from the spot you decide to move the stop from, and count it as two trades. If you had a small stop, but not the maximum risk you allow on the idea, then move it no further than you planned to risk as a maximum for a single trade. Moving a stop because you have a reason is OK, just COUNT IT, and MAKE SURE you have a REASON to do so. DO NOT just move it because you don't want to lose, or you will take out your own account very quickly.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ForexStoryteller
⚠️ Risk:Reward & Win-Rate CheatsheetThe reward to risk ratio (RRR, or reward risk ratio) is maybe the most important metric in trading and a trader who understands the RRR can improve his chances of becoming profitable. Basically, the reward risk ratio measures the distance from your entry to your stop loss and your take profit order and then compares the two distances. Traders who understand this connection can quickly see that you neither need an extremely high winrate nor a large reward:risk ratio to make money as a trader. As long as your reward:risk ratio and your historical winrate match, your trading will provide a positive expectancy. 🔷 Calculating the RRR Let’s say the distance between your entry and stop loss is 50 points and the distance between the entry and your take profit is 100 points . Then the reward risk ratio is 2:1 because 100/50 = 2. Reward Risk Ratio Formula RRR = (Take Profit – Entry ) / (Entry – Stop loss) 🔷 Minimum Winrate When you know the reward:risk ratio for your trade, you can easily calculate the minimum required winrate (see formula below). Why is this important? Because if you take trades that have a small RRR you will lose money over the long term, even if you think you find good trades. Minimum Winrate Formula Minimum Winrate = 1 / (1 + Reward:Risk) 👤 @AlgoBuddy 📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators ❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
Editors' picks
Education
by QuantVue
8
Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) | 18% move possibleiShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF forms bullish "Symmetrical Continuation Triangle" chart pattern "Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on iShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF (EUFN:NASDAQ). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $18.44 to the range of $20.90 - $21.50. The pattern formed over 17 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis. Tells Me: The price has broken upward out of a consolidation period, suggesting a continuation of the prior uptrend. A Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) shows two converging trendlines as prices reach lower highs and higher lows. Volume diminishes as the price swings back and forth between an increasingly narrow range reflecting uncertainty in the market direction. Then well before the triangle reaches its apex, the price breaks out above the upper trendline with a noticeable increase in volume, confirming the pattern as a continuation of the prior uptrend.
NASDAQ:EUFNLong
by moneytalkstome