Risky
AXP Weekly Options PlayDescription
A close < 176 triggers a short position.
Using expiration two weeks out for a little additional time on this slow mover.
Put Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL > 176
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 172.5P
SELL
11/12 157.5
R/R & Breakevens will vary when filled.
The long put is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
Short put is placed at the support established in August - September.
Always implement proper risk management
Only invest what you are willing to lose
AAPL Same Week Long Call Calendar SpreadDescription:
Earnings after close, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
R/R ~4:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Conveniently, Break-evens:
158.99, (2 stdev from open)
146.33, (~80% of 1 stdev from open)
Intend to close before near term expiration.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/05 152.5C
SELL
10/29 152.5C
Position Addition:
Will be running a limited amount of capital in additional same week OTM long calls to position for additional upside.
These will be purchased at EOD.
My Position:
BUY
10/29 160C
*The amount I am buying of the OTM calls here is equivalent to ~15% of total position size.
Estimated Position Delta: .09
As you can see, my long long bias is negligible to the overall strategy.
I will update with my fill and delta when I open the additional long calls.
AAPL 10/29 Weekly Options PlayDescription:
Price is meeting that broken-down upward sloping trendline established through July and August, as well as the daily supply zone @ 150.
Looking for swift reaction to close this position early next week.
Put Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
Entry on close < 150
SL >150
TGT - 143
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
10/29 148P
SELL
10/29 143P
Earnings next week is a risk factor.
Long put is ATM for max success rate.
Short put is at the target price for max profit potential.
UPS Long: Option PlayBroke ATH, good entry on close over 217.5.
Using A call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL < 217.5
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 220C
SELL
11/12 235C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed 3 standard deviations away.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
MSFT Long Call Calendar SpreadDescription:
Earnings after close, taking advantage of high IV on same week options and covering with next week's (Calendar Spread).
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels on Chart
R/R ~3:1
Positive R/R, stop loss levels built into position.
Intend to close before near term expiration.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/05 310C
SELL
10/29 310C
EUR-GBP Risky Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-GBP is trading in a downtrend
And I am bearish on the pair overall
However, a local long opportunity
Will present itself when the pair
Retest the horizontal support level
The target will be slightly below
The horizontal resistance level
Buy!
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Ascending triangle breakoutI mentioned that I'm bullish on commodities, not only lithium. The oil prices are going higher as I assumed and will most likely continue and possibly even reach a few hundreds in the next ten years.
This chart is pretty illiquid - especially in the beginning - and difficult to analyze but I looked at the big picture and I conclude that the smart money accumulation range should be over. 1.45 AUD should be possible in 1 - 2 years. $ 0.40 AUD is the shorter term target but everything is possible here. Just for small positions in my opinion!
FB at Critical levels hereFB is sitting at a very crucial level here. After dropping about 15% from ATH levels, it just had one of its biggest drops of the downtrend so far. Because of the news that Trump Media and Digital World Acquisition Group are merging, this will be another competitor to FB and Twitter, no matter what people think. This will take some market share away from the big social media giants, and this has reflected in the FB and Twitter share prices in the last couple days.
Personally, I believe FB will use its recent acquisitions, and massive market share to blow past this minor dent and will create its own monopoly again on the social media world.
We have seen cases like in China, where WeChat runs the entire country and all transactions, pretty much, are done through the WeChat platform.
With FB trying to monopolize, and creating its own cryptocurrency, or token, we can maybe see the beginning of a new era with FB.
Things to note:
Earnings: FB announces earning on the 25th, and we can expect this to make or break the stock.
$300 is a critical level, and if FB breaks down, we could see a retest of the lows where Trump was banned from FB, and Twitter.
Buying shares at this level, and will average down if a breakdown does occur, but I do not see FB dying lower than $300, and if it does, we will see a nice long bounce up to original levels.
Short term: could be bearish, and could see even lower lows until a reversal occurs
Long term: Bullish and I think this is a good price to get started in FB shares long term.
AMC Setting UpAMC has been in this pennant since that ridiculous run in June that we all remember. Meme stocks popped due to reddit and robinhood retail investors taking advantage of the huge % of shorts by institutions. We saw something that has never been seen before and we may be looking at a round two, on a smaller scale however.
AMC has made its 5 legged pennant (A,B,C,D,E) and looks to be primed to break out above the upper trendline, and then the resistance at the $51- $52 level. It has been obeying very close to the fib retracement levels so make sure to keep an eye on each level as AMC continues it's path in this pennant and the potential breakout.
Volume is falling while price is RISING so tread carefully as this is a BEARISH divergence sign.
MACD crossed after that falling wedge pattern we played earlier last week, which is a good sign.
Not all signs are looking good but it is a RISKY trade.
I anticipate a retest of the lower trendline, at around $39 - $40, where you can enter the trade. If it does not retest, I would watch the yellow rectangle area I drew which could be the nearest support, and best BUY area if you are bullish as well.
REMEMBER: this pattern is not always a BULLISH pattern. It can turn BEARISH if AMC breaks down below the lower trendline, so tread carefully. With stocks like this, hyped meme stocks, things can go south very quickly, just as fast as they can turn profitable.
KEY LEVELS:
$40 - IF AMC can hold this level, I will be very bullish on this stock and will be aiming for around the $49-50 level.
$50 - over 50, needs to break 52 then I believe it can fly with some injection of volume, so keep your eye on the volume.
Taking some shares at this level, as a starter position. Taking my time to enter any option calls or puts.
CALLS:
19 Nov 40C looks good, with over 5k in open interest (OI)
21 Jan 40C is your best bet if you can afford it, with over 29k in OI
** You can also do spreads in order to limit your risk, a vertical spread with 19 Nov 40C and selling the 45C is around $180, giving you a $320 potential max return. Pretty decent risk to return.
✅EUR_AUD RISKY LONG🚀
✅EUR_AUD is retesting a wide horizontal support level
And while the price action looks rather bearish
The support level is strong
So I still think that a local long is possible
Yet, we need to wait for a reversal pattern to emerge
Before entering any trade!
LONG🚀
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GOLD Risky Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD was trading in a falling wedge
And now we are seeing an attempt at a bullish breakout
I would wait for more bullish signals to appear
But should the breakout be conclusive
It will go up and retest the target level above
Buy!
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USD-CAD Risky Short! Sell!Hello,Traders!
USD-CAD is trading in an uptrend
But the pair is now retesting a horizontal resistance
I think that we will see a pullback from the level
But the momentum of the movement is high
So I urge you to wait for a reversal pattern to from
Before you enter a short
Sell!
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Overbought weekly RSI with (daily) divergence in OBV and RSI14As the two mentioned indicators confirm each other AND the weekly RSI is also overbought I risk a little short position. Nevertheless, market could move higher anytime so I would only risk 1% with this first trade. If there is a new a high and I get stoped out I would risk another position if there are signs of weaknesses.
If the short plays out well I would try to make the trade even bigger! ;)
Caution: Trade against mid- and long-term trend! Stop-loss is beeing moved closer if there is a chance. :)
Short Apple?What a very risky play and my analysis have been on a loosing streak! Nothing to hide here, just honest analysis. Why do I keep getting killed?
Here are my thoughts on Apples price movement for the very short term.
2 sell signals initiated by D+ which is an insanely accurate buy and sell indicator that gives signals based on their algorithm that combines RSI & Divergence.
MACD also shows extremely high levels of price and volume and they have just started to balance out and will potentially slow down & drop as indicated by the most recent red bar showing the start of bearish strength.
On the Contrary the Kurotoga cloud shows a support at $148.76 a share which is not far from its current price, so will apple fall below that level of support?
If it were to fall below that cloud I would have no issue shorting it to $146 a share and scalp a quick profit regardless it hits that price or not. The goal is to ride the wave down. But will it fall at all? What are your thoughts?
✅CAD_CHF RISKY SHORT🔥
🏛CAD_CHF is retesting a strong resistance level
But the bullish wave is very strong too
Coming from the local strength of oil that props up CAD
And the CHF weakness probably pressed by the Swiss CB interventions
Thus, lets wait for the reversal patterns to form
Before we decide on entering or not entering the position
SHORT🔥
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GOLD Risky Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD bounced off the horizontal support
Just as I predicted but the marker returned it back down
And the pice action looks bearish to me
However, the support is strong
And a local long provides a good R:R
So while risky, statistically its a win anyway
I suggest we wait for a reversal pattern to appear on 1H TF
And only then enter the position!
Buy!
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trying stocks for the first time no idea but i like the risk I bought one share of apple because the volume looked reasonable and the markets overall making quarterly and annually also seemed pretty good and I think the beta was risky but I still took the risk and bought a share for a long time period I have no idea what I'm doing but I would accept any type of advice.