People make mistakes, Money don't!We have different players in markets, but the summation of their interaction always presents itself as the market price, no matter if you look at the stock, cryptocurrency, commodities, or real estate market.
I believe the most important factor behind any price movement in any market is money flow and the stock market and cryptocurrency market are not exceptions. Whenever we have a positive money flow (influx)in the market, prices will go up. The opposite is also true! if we have a negative money flow (outflux), prices will go down.
Evaluating the money flow must become a habit for long-term investors and short time traders. Because investing in an asset with a negative money flow (outflux) will almost always waste your time and capital as a long-term investor! On the other hand, money flow creates lots of trading opportunities for short-time traders in any market!
This reality is not ignorable, and those who ignore it will pay for that. I usually follow the average trading value to evaluate the money flow of the trend and how strong a trend is. Having said that, we can redefine the bullish trend as prices going up plus money influx, and the bearish trend is when prices go down and we have money outflux.
To have a better idea let's review this on the charts:
NASDAQ:TSLA Weekly chart since 2019.
Red/Green bar chart: Weekly Trading Value estimate(Volume*Closing Price)
Orange line: 4 weeks average Trading Value (if multiply by 4 you can have an estimate of monthly trading value)
A constant increase in monthly trading value from 48 Billion in June 2019 to 844 billion in December 2020 caused an 1863% gain in the same timeframe.
Maximum trading value in one week: 290 Billion, third week December 2020
Maximum trading value in one month: 844 Billion, December 2020
Last week Trading value: 111 Billion (-62% decreased)
Last month Average Trading value: 481 Billion (-43% decreased)
NASDAQ:AAPL Weekly chart since 2019.
Red/Green bar chart: Weekly Trading Value estimate(Volume*Closing Price)
Orange line: 4 weeks average Trading Value (if multiply by 4 you can have an estimate of monthly trading value)
A constant increase in monthly trading value from 134 Billion in January 2019 to 525 billion in August 2020 caused a 288% gain in the same timeframe.
Maximum trading value in one week: 143 Billion, first week September 2020
Maximum trading value in one month: 525 Billion, August 2020
Last week Trading value: 65 Billion (-54% decreased)
Last month Average Trading value: 248 Billion (-53% decreased)
NASDAQ:AMZN
NASDAQ:FB
NYSE:NIO
NYSE:PLTR
NYSE:GME
NASDAQ:BNGO
NASDAQ:RIOT
By now you should be familiar with the power of money in the market and how money flow affects the trend!
Any increase in price without an increase in money flow is not sustainable and creates a profitable short opportunity..!
Moshkelgosha (Sniper Trader)
RIT
How to play the breakouts!?!Lately, there has been a lot of buzz about BTC! Will it breakout or not? In the end, it did not as we predicted with the accuracy of a surgent in our most viewed post till now that you can find in RELATED IDEAS.
Here is a nice school example of how ETH does the breakouts and probably similar pattern will be played in the near future. We will write more about that in the next posts but for now, let's focus on the lessons.
A double top has been a pattern that ETH forms quiet often. Probably cause of false hopes when people just wait for ETH to do the same run as BTC and then hope gets denied or to say it better - run postponed!
It happened before (2017), it happened in the near past (2019) and it will probably happen in the near future.
In order to get the best return in time (RIT) and not only the best return on investment (ROI), it's important to know when to expect the moon so a trader can optimize his or her positions.
Actually, trading is not about buying at the cheapest price, but buying (or selling) close to the time when the price will move the most. So when is that?
In this example, it's clear that after breakout retest!
People usually FOMO when the breakout happens but history shows that in most cases it will be retested.
However, at the point of best entry (RIT), some start to get scared that the breakout was not successful.
Some might even sell in panic (FUD - Fear, uncertainty, and doubt).
This post is made in order to remember what to do and how to work with your emotions (fear, anger,...) when we are close to breakouts.
Buy the retest! Patience is always the key. Keep calm, use the knowledge and you should be fine.
Take care and GL!
PS: You can see Elliot Waves count in this example also, but let's leave that for some other occasion.
For now, it is just important to know that in this example wave 4 needs to be higher than wave 1.