RIVN
How to Trade RIVIAN $RIVNPer EW, this is in wave4 consolidation wave, fell till exactly high of wave1, If this follows EW, then this should take reversal from here onwards to 15.6.
Another analysis with trendline support can come at 11.3 and then rise again towards atleast 13.68
FYI, i took few at 11.8 with a Stoploss at 11.28
Rivian Introduces Affordable R2 SUV and R3 CrossoversRivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ), the innovative electric vehicle (EV) maker, unveils its latest offerings - the smaller and more affordable "R2" SUVs and "R3" crossovers, signaling a strategic shift in response to changing market dynamics within the EV industry.
Key Highlights:
- Rivian's ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) introduction of the R2 SUVs, priced at $45,000, aims to address the slowdown in EV demand exacerbated by high interest rates.
- The decision to produce the R2 at Rivian's existing facility in Illinois reflects a strategic pivot to ensure timely deliveries by 2026 while reducing capital expenditure and mitigating launch risks.
- Rivian anticipates saving over $2.25 billion through this decision, reaffirming its commitment to fiscal prudence and operational efficiency.
- The R2, a five-seater variant offering over 300 miles of range, is poised to play a pivotal role in Rivian's success amidst intensifying competition in the EV market.
Challenges and Opportunities:
Rivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) acknowledges the hurdles in ramping up production and stimulating demand beyond early adopters, particularly in the SUV and pickup segment. The unveiling of the R3 crossover and its more potent variant, R3X, underscores Rivian's proactive approach to diversifying its product lineup and appealing to a broader customer base. With SUVs and crossovers gaining traction in the U.S., Rivian's strategic focus on affordability and versatility positions it to capitalize on evolving consumer preferences and foster widespread EV adoption.
Future Outlook:
Rivian's foray into the mid-priced EV market signifies a pivotal moment in its growth trajectory, signaling its commitment to democratizing electric mobility. As Rivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) navigates the complexities of production scalability and market penetration, its ability to offer compelling EV solutions at scale will be instrumental in reshaping the automotive landscape.
Conclusion:
Rivian's ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) unveiling of the R2 SUVs and R3 crossovers marks a significant milestone in its quest to redefine the EV market. By prioritizing affordability, adaptability, and innovation, Rivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) demonstrates its unwavering commitment to driving sustainable mobility and shaping the future of transportation.
FSR is driving to its earnings LONGFSR is shown here on a 30 minute chart on the move up in the approach to earnings on February
29th. For comparison purposes only TSLA is shown sideways with the purple line. FSR has
started a VWAP band breakout into the area of the mean anchored VWAP where it could pick up
institutionally based trader interest. The growing volumes of trading are obvious and lend
further support to taking a position. I will long long here with both shares and options
as a pre-earnings play. The call options for mid-March are $ 6.00 per contract.
Rivian ($RIVN) Rebounds From Record Low In Premarket MoveShares of Rivian Automotive, Inc. ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) rose in premarket trading on Monday after the battering they received last week in the aftermath of the electric vehicle startup's quarterly report.
The stock plummeted by about 38% in the week ended Feb. 23 and closed at a record low after the company announced 2024 deliveries guidance that fell notably below Street expectations. Following the earnings, sell-side analysts lowered their forward estimates for the company and, as an extension, their price targets for the stock.
Rivian Inc. ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) also suffered downgrades in the hands of JPMorgan, UBS and Truist Securities. JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underweight and reduced its price target from $20 to $11.
UBS downgraded the stock from Buy to Sell and lowered the price target from $24 to $28.
Truist cut its rating on the stock from Buy to Hold and took down the price target from $26 to $11.
Monday's rebound could be because the sell-off may have been overdone. Following last week's dismal stock performance, Tesla investor Gary Black defended the company. He flagged the company's likelihood of emerging as a credible number two to Tesla by 2030.
The company has a key catalyst in the near term as the Irvine, California-based company gears up to launch its second-gen R2 low-priced EV on Mar. 7.
For a reversal, the stock should fill the gap formed when it gapped down following the quarterly results and go past a key resistance around the $16 area. The stock is currently in oversold territory, going by its relative strength index.
In premarket trading, Rivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) rose 1.09% to $10.18 and suddenly plummeted by about 2%.
RIVN guides itself lower- but is it a dip buy? SHORTRIVN spends more to produce of its nice truck than it sells them for. This is a recipe for a
disaster which is now baking in the oven Earnings have plummeted. If guidance was better
than realities forecast there might be a dip buy here. i have a variety of positions shorting
RIVN when it runs a countertrend correction I will take a hedging long position until the
correction is over. I use these shorts to balance my portfolio against risk from an overall
falling market. Balanced in short vs long positions dollar for dollar and in the options
balanced in expiration times spread across the next almost two years. I find this keeps
the portfolio safe. I also look to LCID for a similar scenario while having a bullish bias on
WKHS. NKLA is a whole 'nother story. SHORT RIVN do not dip buy .
The chart is what you might expect. The disaster is what it is. This is basically a falling wedge
and no where near impending a breakout upside.
FSR increasing volatility as earnings approach LONGFSR is on 15 minute chart. It has been in a down trend. However, as the earnings report
due on Feburary 29th is near, trader interest has caused some buying volume spikes and upward
price movement closing in a bull flag pattern after the squeeze indicator triggered several
times and with the last a green histogram reflecting upward price action. The price-volume
trend reversed bearish to bullish. I see this as a setup for a long trade of FSR into the
earnings. In watching for an options setup I noted that the strike $0.50 same day expiration
on 2/23 this past Friday went 0.03 to 0.12 nearly 375% while the same for 3/1 went
0.09 to 0.16 or about 75%. Al in all not matter shares or options, I see FSR as a set up
for a long pre-earnings trade.
Rivian Plans Cut to 10% of Salaried Staff
Rivian Automotive Inc., ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) to cut 10% of its salaried workforce and set production guidance well below Wall Street’s expectations as the maker of electric vehicles grapples with stagnant demand and economic turbulence.
Rivian Automotive Inc., ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) will build 57,000 vehicles this year, roughly in line with its 2023 output, according to a statement Wednesday that also detailed fourth-quarter results. The forecast fell far short of analysts’ average estimate of more than 80,000 units in 2024.
“Our business is not immune to existing economic and geopolitical uncertainties,” Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe said on a conference call. “Most notably, the impact of historically high interest rates, which has negatively impacted demand.”
Rivian’s shares fell 16% to $12.98 as of 6:32 p.m. after regular trading in New York. Rivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) had already tumbled 34% this year through Wednesday’s close.
Rivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) expects an adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $2.7 billion for the full year.
That outlook underscores the challenge of scaling production and stemming losses in an environment of waning consumer demand for battery-powered vehicles. The automaker has aimed to challenge EV market leader Tesla Inc. following Rivian’s blockbuster stock listing in 2021, but it has since dealt with supply-chain woes and other challenges.
The layoffs, part of an aggressive cost-cutting effort, follow job reductions last year and in 2022. Capital expenditures this year will rise to more than $1.7 billion, Rivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) said, up from a little over $1 billion in 2023. It had initially forecast spending on the order of $2 billion last year.
Rivian ($RIVM) builds two consumer EVs and a battery-electric delivery van at a sole plant in Normal, Illinois. There’s a second factory in the works near Atlanta, where it plans to build its first mass-market, lower-priced EV starting in 2026.
Rivian Automotive Inc., ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) reported an adjusted loss last quarter of $1.36 a share, compared with an average $1.33 deficit in estimates. Revenue of $1.32 billion narrowly topped expectations.
Rivian ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) lost more than $40,000 on every vehicle it delivered in the last three months of the year, more than the loss of a little over $30,000 per vehicle in the third quarter. The company attributed that, in part, to delivery of fewer lower-cost vans to Amazon.com. The quarterly loss showed improvement compared with the $124,000 it lost on every vehicle a year ago due to supply chain issues.
RIVIAN Is this earnings slump a buy opportunity in disguise?Rivian Automotive (RIVN) missed earnings by $0.01 and that is expected to put extreme pressure on the stock price on the short-term. However, are those short-term tensions a buy opportunity in disguise?
Well for the long-term, Rivian remains within our technical model as every significant correction since the start of 2023 has been within the -47% and -48% range. That gives a floor price of $12.75, with only weekly closings below it being potentially dangerous for disrupting the long-term outlook.
An oversold 1D RSI (at or below 30.00) is a technical buy entry and there are two bullish scenarios unfolding for Rivian one on the short and one on the medium-term. The short-term scenario includes a +62.74% like the November 10 2023 - December 20 2023 rebound, with a $21.00 Target, which would make a 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line) test. The medium-term scenario is modelled out of the April 26 2023 - July 27 2023 rise which rallied by +142.79% to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. A repeat of that gives us a 2nd Target at $31.00.
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RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't sold RIVN after the Recall of Its Vehicles Due to Loose Fasteners:
nor reentered the Double Bottom:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIVN Rivian Automotive prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 16usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-1,
for a premium of approximately $1.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RIVN a short entry on the rejection by VWAP SHORTPIVN on the 15-minute chart was trading up against the dominant supertrend from last
Thursday. Mid-morning price hit the resistance of the intermediate term mean anchored VWAP
and reversed as suggested yesterday by the bearish divergence on the zero-lag MACD.
Tomorrow is federal news which could increase general market volatility.
I see a short trade targeting 15.25 in the area of the bottom of two-volume profiles
anchored back 2 weeks. The stop loss is 15.9 at the highs of nearby candle wicks. Once the
the move gets underway, those already in long positions may close to take profit and add
into any short selling underway.
LCID SHORT on VWAP rejecting price rise.In my previous idea of January 29, I bought LCID as it broke out of a falling wedge on news from
Saudi Arabia fixing supply chain and production issues for body parts. LCID ascended the
following day to fall down on rejection from the mean VWAP band line anchored in mid-
December. On the 4H chart, another smaller and more condensed falling wedge is found
and price is moving down toward the one standard deviation line below the mean VWAP ( the
jagged blue line ) which is now horizontal. The last candle is red and narrow bodied. It is near
the top of the channel. Trade plan- I will short LCID here and add to the position each time
price returns to the top of the channel as monitored on a lower time frame such as 15-45
minutes. I will watch for a reversal of the down-trending lines of the zero-lag MACD
and a cross at the bottom. Similarly for the RSI indicator and its green fast and red slow line
in the range of RSI value of 20-35. Likewise, if price rises above the channel in an early
breakout, the trade is over as the downtrend is correcting again. If the price were to break
resistance of the mean VWAP zone, this would represent a break of the down supertrend and
could cause a bit of a short squeeze to get underway. If I see that, I will get into a long
position with more position size as it could become lucrative.
RIVIAN Low risk buy opportunity at least on the short-term.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) hit the $21.00 Target following our November 29 2023 (see chart below) buy call but even though it confidently broke above the Bearish Megaphone, the price corrected aggressively back even below the Higher Lows Zone:
The price is at the moment coming off an oversold 1D RSI Double Bottom, naturally below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though the long-term pattern remains a Channel Up (blue), we have to consider the possibility of the (dashed) Channel Down breaking below it and establishing a new long-term trend. Until that happens, this is a short-term buy opportunity, with our Target being $23.00, right at the top of the Channel Down, on the (dotted) median of the Channel Up, representing a +62.17% rise from the Channel's bottom, similar to the December 26 2023 Lower High (peak).
If then we get a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line), which will be the stock's first time to do so, we will buy the bullish break-out and pursue our long-term Target of $35.50, which will represent a +142.79% rise from the bottom, similar to the last Bullish Leg of the long-term Channel Up that peaked on July 27 2023.
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RIVN Is Rivian the next TSLA?Yesterday, I observed some unusual blocks of calls in the options chain expiring on Feb 23, following the earnings release.
One of the most substantial positions was in the $20 strike price call, with options traders paying $1.7 million in premium.
Listening to analysts, some mentioned they expect a 'TSLA Model 3 moment' from RIVN as well.
In addition to Amazon, which has agreed to purchase 100,000 delivery vans from Rivian, AT&T is set to acquire its electric vans and R1 vehicles in a new pilot program starting in early 2024.
On the other hand, the CEO stated that he anticipates Rivian reaching a break-even point on each EV built by the end of this year. We will likely hear more about this on the earnings call.
I am extremely bullish on Rivian's upcoming earnings release!
RIVIAN Channel Up targeting $35.50Rivian (RIVN) gave us a great break-out buy entry on our previous November 29 analysis (see chart below) as it broke above the Inner Lower Highs and hit our $21.00 target:
The pattern that is now dominating the 1D log chart is a Channel Up. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to negate the recently made Death Cross and cross back again above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form a Golden Cross. This will be a strong bullish continuation signal for the current bullish leg of the Channel Up. We are bullish again on this stock, targeting $35.50, which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, the Feb level where the previous Higher High was made.
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$OSK Breaking Out of Flag Formation?NYSE:OSK Here is another play on electrified specialty vehicles. Check out their website www.oshkoshcorp.com Pretty cool stuff.
I have been watching this one for a good entry since earnings on Oct 23rd. I missed the pullback breakout on Nov 13th, but it has pulled back again and looks to be breaking back above that pullback. I have started ¼ sized position and I will place my stop just below today’s low of day. I do not expect this to be barn burner but a 10% to 20% gain over the next 2 months seems reasonable. I think it can get back to the double top highs from September. All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
RIVIAN Potential triple bullish break-out ahead. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) remained supported within the (green) Higher Lows Zone and on a significant Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI (in the form of a Channel Up). This is an early bullish sentiment signal but the real technical catalyst is right ahead.
That is the Triple Resistance zone consisting of the Inner Lower Highs trend-line as well as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a strong bullish combo signal if broken but in our personal opinion breaking and closing a 1D candle above the Inner Lower Highs will suffice. If successful, we will target $21.00 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which would make a Lower High at the top of the 4-month Bearish Megaphone (the 0.618 Fib was where the previous Lower High was formed).
The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00.
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Tesla - Remember, The Ponzi Always ContinuesSo, you've realized that Teslas aren't particularly great cars, EVs becoming a worldwide trend is a hoax, and that Elon Musk isn't any kind of very saintly very MAGA saviour of humanity during the end times.
And now that price is down a lot, we want to victory lap and short, because the public relations firms that are running the campaign needed to produce liquidity for banks and big money funds to buy told you to.
The problem with the short Tesla thesis right now is that Musk pledged a significant volume of his shares as collateral to get big money to finance his acquisition of Tweeter, (now known as Xeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeter), which by some accounts is worth some painful $15 billion compared to the $45 billion he (they) paid for it.
And so what this means is that there's been significant incentive to sell in the $250 range and buy back lower as a form of risk hedging, with the ultimate purpose of selling higher.
All for the sake of just making all the money without losing any of the money when Xeeeeeeter inevitably goes public in the future because Musk made it the manifest Western form of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit apparatus, WeChat, because Shanghai Gigafactory bro just loves the way the Party does things.
But the risk for bulls, and the economic system alike, is that "the best laid plans of mice and men oft go awry," which is to say that when it comes to gambling on Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party, a fool is a fool.
One should oppose the CCP because it's responsible for the 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, and the campaign of live organ harvesting genocide that came with it.
Although that campaign was launched, and continued, at the hands of former Chairman Jiang Zemin, and Jiang is dead now, Xi is still the head of the Party, and the first thing you do when slaying a red dragon is sever its head.
Actually, the first thing you do when slaying a red dragon is sever its tail. Former Premier Li Keqiang, who was Xi's right hand man for a lot of years, recently died "of a heart attack," which is likely code for "was knocked down by Wuhan Pneumonia."
If the pandemic in Mainland China is killing the Xi Faction, the world has big time problems.
And it seems to me the recent conflict in Israel and the war that's being launched into Syria and Iran is probably to create a gateway to Mainland China, since Iran connects to Pakistan and Afghanistan, which are already U.S. controlled.
Everyone wants control of China and its 5,000 year history when the CCP finally falls.
So back to Tesla.
The logic is fairly simple.
Because 2023 started uppy, we expect 2023 to finish uppy. We do not expect things that start the beginning of the year on a moon mission to correct into the end of the year, because generally speaking the scam isn't played like that.
Which means that all dips are a dip to buy, and especially when we're finally printing prices under "$200," it's a dip to buy.
But the MMs are the most annoying of the most annoying people and like to run things to lows that are less comfortable. Shipping under $180 from $197 is a further loss of another 10%+, which means options expire worthless/devalue effectively, and everyone is a winner, winner, chicken dinner, except for you, who gets to finance happy hour, strippers, and cocaine at 1:31 p.m. on Halloween Tuesday.
Either way, it's worth expecting the May pivot to hold as a low, a higher low to form, and then we really do see the $320 parade into the end of 2023.
Ho, ho, ho, Happy Santa Rally.
Remember, the Ponzi always continues. By the time the ponzi stops continuing, all the bears will have long since been liquidated. The disaster sequence is when they take down bulltards who buy the dip, buy the dip, and buy the dip as it races towards zero.
And Tesla doesn't have that MULN-style landslide apocalypse pattern. That only happens when big bags are empty and nobody ever buys something again.
So all the price action is just shareholder printer selling.
Yet.
RIVIAN: Buy signal emerged.Rivian has found support inside April's HL Zone while the 1D RSI flattened. The 1D technical outlook is only slightly bearish (RSI = 42.485, MACD = -1.120, ADX = 38.728) despite being inside a Channel Down since July 27th. Technically it is replicating the January-April correction, which eventually bottomed when the 1D RSI flattened.
We use the 1D MA200 rejection as a short term buy signal, aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 20.00).
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