RIVIAN hit the long-term Buy Zone. Target $21.00.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) hit the Higher Lows Zone and the 1D MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross. This is a strong bullish combo signal but attention is needed as the price is below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The pattern since the July 27 top is a Bearish Megaphone and Tuesday's low isn't only a Higher Low on the Support Zone but also a technical Lower Low on the Megaphone's bottom. The previous Lower Low rebound formed a top on the 0.618 Fibonacci level. As a result our short-term bullish target is $21.00.
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RIVN
$RIVN's Key Buy Levels After 20%+ Intraday DeclineNEWS
Rivian Automotive Inc's made the decision to issue $1.5 billion worth of convertible green bonds.Here's a breakdown of what's happening:
Share Price Drop: Rivian's stock price plummeted by over 20% on the day of the announcement. It's the most significant daily percentage decline for the company's shares since May of the previous year.
Convertible Green Bonds: The company announced its intention to issue $1.5 billion in convertible green bonds. Convertible bonds are debt securities that can be converted into a company's stock under specific conditions. Being labeled as "green" means the funds raised from these bonds are earmarked for environmentally friendly or climate-focused projects.
Purpose of the Bonds: Rivian intends to use the proceeds from the bond sale to support the launch of its R2 sports utility vehicle in Georgia. By doing so, they aim to "de-risk" this vehicle's launch, implying they're using the funds to mitigate potential financial challenges or uncertainties associated with this launch.
Not the First Time: This isn't Rivian's first foray into green bonds. The company issued a $1.3 billion convertible green bond in March of the same year to support another vehicle family launch.
Market Reaction and Analysis: Elliot Johnson from Evolve ETFs commented that the decision to raise funds came earlier than what the market expected. While Rivian's earnings matched expectations, and they are on course with vehicle shipments, the early fundraising and potential dilution of shares from the convertible bonds might concern investors. Rivian, still seen by some as a speculative business, is raising capital ahead of anticipated timelines, which could be perceived as a sign of cash flow challenges or other unexpected expenses.
Rivian's Performance and Cash Position: Rivian, competing in the electric vehicle market against giants like Tesla, has been investing heavily to boost production. Despite these investments, they have posted positive production and delivery numbers. They've forecasted substantial revenue growth and, as of the end of September, held $9.1 billion in cash reserves, albeit down from $10.2 billion a few months earlier. The CEO had previously indicated that the company's available funds were sufficient to sustain operations till 2025 while controlling costs.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The news went public when RIVN was sitting at the white resistance line, and RIVN has already suffered a 20%+ decline today. I believe that the bleeding has just started, and there are two key price levels where RIVN could potentially bottom out over the next few weeks. The first is the orange support level, and the second is the yellow support zone. I believe that RIVN will have a strong rebound once this bottoms out, and will continue to give updates when a buy opportunity is presented. There is a Ichimoku cloud of resistance that is suppressing RIVN's price at current price levels, the RSI has a lot of room to drop, and this bearish news has caused RIVN to lose support at the midrange of the Bollinger Band. The EMA ribbon is also acting as a zone of resistance that is suppressing RIVN's price.
PSNY: First buy signal. With Supertrend Indicator1. First buy signal with supertrend indicator
2. Gap to fill around $3.00 to $3.12 (Thanks to Barclays downgrade :S )
3. Second gap to fill (Wall Street dropped the stock after last earnings/results)
Before buying a few hundred or thousand shares, I'll wait for a consolidation of about 5-10 days, and especially for the EMA 9/20 to cross on the daily chart. Too many times we've been caught buying too early or not waiting long enough.
And if, by any chance, Wall Street decides to push the price up by +50%, I'm already on the train with thousands and thousands of shares... lol 🚀💰
Analyzing RIVN's Outperformance Over TSLA Amidst Cash BurnToday, I would like to draw your attention to an intriguing market trend that has caught the attention of many investors - the outperformance of RIVN stock compared to TSLA, despite RIVN's ongoing cash burn. While this phenomenon may raise eyebrows, it is essential to approach it with a cautious and analytical mindset. Let's delve into the reasons behind this unexpected market behavior and explore why some investors are considering a long position on RIVN.
1. Dissecting RIVN's Outperformance:
a) Market Sentiment: Investors are drawn to RIVN's potential as a disruptor in the EV industry, which has fueled a positive market sentiment.
b) Growth Prospects: RIVN's innovative technologies, such as its autonomous driving capabilities and unique battery technology, have garnered attention for their potential to revolutionize the EV market.
c) Competitive Advantage: RIVN's focus on the luxury EV segment, along with its strong brand image, has positioned the company as a formidable competitor to TSLA.
1. Understanding RIVN's Cash Burn
2. A Cautious Call-to-Action
a) In-depth Research: Dive into RIVN's financial reports, growth projections, and competitive landscape to gain a comprehensive understanding of the company's position.
b) Risk Assessment: Evaluate the risks associated with RIVN's cash burn and weigh them against the potential rewards of its growth prospects.
c) Diversification: Ensure that any investment in RIVN aligns with your overall investment strategy and risk tolerance. Diversify your portfolio to mitigate potential risks.
d) Expert Opinions: Seek insights from trusted financial advisors or industry experts who can provide informed opinions on RIVN's prospects.
In conclusion, RIVN's outperformance over TSLA, despite its cash burn, has sparked interest among investors. However, it is vital to approach this opportunity with caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Remember, the stock market is inherently unpredictable, and it is crucial to make informed choices based on a well-rounded analysis of the available information.
RIVIAN This channel can lead it to $32Rivian closed the week over the MA50 (1d) and since it held both the MA200 (1d) and Support (1) intact, has most likely invalidated the scenario of Lower Lows.
We may see a 4-6 upward consolidation first as last March-May, before a new yearly High.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the opening price.
Targets:
1. 32.00 (Fibonacci Channel 3.0 extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) crossed over its Falling Resistance. A strong sign of accumulated bullish momentum.
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+42% Rivian Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an American electric vehicle manufacturer and automotive technology company founded in 2009. Rivian is building an electric sport utility vehicle (SUV) and pickup truck on a "skateboard" platform that can support future vehicles or be adopted by other companies. An electric delivery van is also being built as part of a partnership with Amazon. Rivian started deliveries of its R1T pickup truck in late 2021. The company plans to build an exclusive charging network in the United States and Canada by the end of 2023.
Rivian is based in Irvine, California, with its manufacturing plant in Normal, Illinois, and other facilities in Palo Alto, California; Carson, California; Plymouth, Michigan; Vancouver, British Columbia; Wittmann, Arizona; and Woking, England. Additionally, Rivian has plans to build another US$5 billion factory in Georgia.
The company raised over US$13.5 billion in financing following its IPO in November 2021.
RIVIAN Confirmed sell signal after Higher Lows break-out.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) broke yesterday below the Higher Lows 1 trend-line, which was supporting since the June 27 Low. With a clear rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) the day before, this bearish break-out may create a Channel Down that could target the Higher Lows 2 trend-line. Until then, we have the critical 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support to consider. As a result, following also the completion of a 1D MACD Bearish Cross yesterday, we are bearish now, targeting $18.50 (1D MA200).
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The Day Ahead: Premium Selling in IWM, QQQ, FXI, GDXJ, SMHIt's Fryyyydayyyy ... (which is when I tend to do all my "stuff").
Well, unless you've been hiding under a rock (no judgment here), you'll know that premium-selling in broad market isn't very good here, with IWM IVR/IV at 12.3/19.7%, QQQ at 9.1/20.1%, and SPY at 6.8/14.4%. That sub-25 IVR is telling you that broad market IV is in the bottom quarter of its 52-week range which for premium-sellers is kind of drag.
Your premium-selling options in this environment (at least from a premium selling perspective) are to (a) do nothing; (b) sell your go-to delta and duration for whatever the market is paying, knowing that you might get assigned at the strike or have a poo pile to manage toward expiry; or (c) go longer-dated to get paid something decent with the probability of profit (POP) and or probability of touch (POT) that you're used to. Since I'm trying to create cash flow here (at least in the retirement account), I generally opt for (c), since I'm not fond of cleaning up poo piles with a great deal of frequency and like high POP/low POT. With that goal in mind, I generally target the shortest duration <16 delta strike that is paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Currently, the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying that in IWM is the December 15th 164 (14 delta, bid 1.65); in QQQ, the December 15th 325 (14 delta, bid 3.26); and in SPY, the Jan 19th 400 (16 delta, bid 4.24), so I'll look to add short put rungs in those durations or greater.
Because broad market sucks so hard though, I'll also be venturing out into the exchange-traded fund space to see if I can scrounge up any premium there. Currently, FXI (IVR 11.3/30.8%), GDXJ (7.6/30.3%), and SMH (17.6/28.7%) are at the top of my screener when sorted for 30-day IV, but you can see that IV is also at the low end of the 52 week range in that space, too. The ideal is to sell in both high IVR/high IV with IVR >50/IV>35% for ETF's, but there is nothing currently in the space with those metrics, so -- as with broad market -- you're options are the same: (a) do nothing; (b) sell your go-to delta/duration with the chips falling where they may; or (c) sell longer duration with your go-to POP/POT.
Here are the shortest duration <16 strikes paying around 1% of strike price in credit for these underlyings:
FXI, Dec 15th 22.85, 13 delta, bid .29 (don't know what the odd ball strike is about).
GDXJ, Nov 17th 29, 12 delta, bid .31.
SMH, Nov 17th 130, 13 delta, bid 1.35.
I would note that there is a highly options-liquid ETF with >50% IV, and it's TQQQ, with an IVR of 17.3 and a 30-day IV of (wait for it) ... 70.5%. It's a leveraged instrument, so I would exercise caution trading it with the expectation that, for example, the 16 delta (the 2 times expected move strike in non-leveraged stuff) is a "safe" strike to sell with limited assignment risk, a high probability of expiring worthless, and/or not being an in-the-money headache toward expiry. As long as you're familiar with all these "warts," it's probably okay to play small. That being said, it won't be particularly buying power efficient on margin; it looks like my broker's requiring that it be cash secured (most underlyings require 20% of the strike price or thereabouts in buying power), so the buying power requirement makes it "less sexy" in spite of its high IV.
Lastly, I would be neglectful were I to not mention the single name space for premium-selling here, but my general order of preference in selling premium (particularly in the retirement account) is (a) broad market; (b) exchange-traded funds; and (c) single name (in that order).
Here are the top 30-day IV, highly options liquid single name underlyings at the moment that are trading at >$20/share and with a 30-day>50%. There isn't a ton here and (as with everything else), IV is at the low end of its 52-week range (I mean 1.0? c'monnnn, you're killing me here, smalls):
AFRM (Tech/Software)), IVR/IV 1.0/75.5%
RIVN (Automaker/EV), 5.5/65.5%
TSLA (Automaker/EV), 11.3/52.7%
NIO - Why Are You Long On Another Shanghai Disaster?So NIO makes electric cars and is a company from Mainland China, which means that by default it's a Chinese Communist Party state-run enterprise because of the realities of Chinese law and living under the CCP's jurisdiction.
Earnings are tomorrow morning and IV on options are juiced to 150% at the money expiring September 1 and 75% expiring January '24.
It might be pretty easy for this company to print a beat considering estimates are only $1.2~ billion compared to the $1.7, $2.5, $1.8, and $1.5 billion in the prior segments.
But as we've seen with earnings on stuff like AMD
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed
Target
Target - Why Is Everyone Desperate To Long Disasters?
Snowflake
Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop?
and Disney
Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?
That a short lived earnings-linked climax has been the optimal moment to enter short and ride the move towards the bottoms.
The problem with companies rooted in Shanghai is that Shanghai is the toad's den, the headquarters of the faction of former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, and is solely responsible for the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting campaign against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners.
But even if the company were rooted in Shenzhen, Beijing, or Guangzhou, the problem would be that any company that relies on Mainland Chinese demand to fuel sales, including companies as big as Apple, are in big trouble.
The reason is simple. If you look at Our World In Data and examine how many people died from Coronavirus Disease 2019, the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping claims that 121,563 people have died since the pandemic began.
The United States with less than 1/4th the population has reported over 1.2 million deaths by comparison.
And on top of that, everyone knows how the CCP covered up and lied to the world about the 2003 SARS pandemic.
So let's say for a minute, considering China's population of 1.4 billion compared to America's 355 million people, and that China is the epicentre of the pandemic, that as few as 10 million people actually died.
Now, consider the number of people counting as eligible buyers who have died in China is even higher than this number because of the huge amount of flooding, natural, and manmade disasters that have occurred over the same period of time.
Let's be generous and say that only 15 million people have died.
How does that impact the sales of companies like NIO, Tesla, Apple, and everyone else who has become reliant on the Chinese market?
Perhaps it isn't enough to cause a 2008-style bubble deflation yet, but we're certainly seeing the impact on the balance sheets, aren't we?
And yet people are telling you to get long on NIO.
Technically speaking, the monthly bars show us that since the October dump, every candle, no matter how big the retrace has been, has simply respected the gap created by the dump.
And this is significant because that dump was an astonishing 63 percent in two months.
And at today's prices of $11 this company is still claimed to be worth $15 billion, even while Evergrande has become a penny stock, the Yuan is in huge trouble, and the entire Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse.
Something I have enlightened to in recent times is that reversal patterns are not reversal patterns unless the market has traded to its true bottom.
This was the problem everyone who was trying to long Tesla, Meta, and Amazon all the way down kept running into.
If you buy too early then you have to sit there in drawdown waiting for 25% miracle candles just to break even for a single day.
And so you always have to ask yourself if the market has traded to its true bottom before you decide to donate your retirement funds to the Party longing a retrace.
On the weekly, the breakout to $16 would be bullish, if $7.5 were the bottom
But the problem is that the most meaningful gap on weekly bars was never retraced to after it broke up and it ran away towards $60, and that gap starts at $5.59, almost 50% away from where we traded today.
So is NIO a long? Social media wants you to get long because every dumpster pattern that looks like a disaster is a long, for some reason.
But NIO is not likely to be a long, no matter how nice of a car and how much of a Tesla killer they may arguably make.
But with a $1.2 billion earnings estimate, that's pretty beatable, and so we may see a real retrace tomorrow, however short lived, that could see smart call buyers who exit early or immediately bagging a nice profit.
For everyone else, perhaps it really is worth buying puts at $14 expiring in March of 2024 and closing them off at $5.5
Because NIO is a Shanghai dumpster fire, this thing can go down and down and down and down in accordance with the Hang Seng Tech even if the Nasdaq and the SPX rallies in Q4.
In the meantime, perhaps September will be a bit of an early autumn for the markets, and perhaps for the world-at-large.
Be careful. Shanghai is the "Babylon" spoke of in The Book of Revelations.
Babylon is a city, not a person.
And everyone who put roots there is dirty, perhaps including Tesla and Elon Musk, the man who wants to turn Twitter into the CCP's social credit keystones Wechat/TikTok.
LCID setting up falling wedge breakout LONGFrom the 1H chart, I have drawn descending and falling trendlines with the resistance
falling faster, That is to say I see a falling wedge pattern which might be typically
at the bottom of a trend forecasting an upside breakout. LICD made a small move
up in the past 3-4 hours of trading. Overall the indicators support the idea of a
reversal especially on the dual TF RS indicator with the green lower TF rising over
the higher TF black line and above the 50 level. Likewise, the ZL MACD shows a
line cross under the histogram which went red to green in a bit of bullish divergence.
The ADX oscillator has yet to show much of anything with the lines hovering about the
20 level. Overall, I expect a breakout however I am willing to take a trade now because
price is near to the support trenline allowing for a small stop loss and a 6% move to
the upper resistance trendline. From there I anticipate a break above the line and
continuation. In the bigger picture, TSLA is moving up again and other EV stocks may be
simply following the leader. ( SL 6 TP1 6.4 TP2 6.85 TP3 7.4 )
Tesla - What To Expect Until September?I heard something rather enlightening on Twitter recently, and it was someone who quoted some sort of analyst as pointing out "Tesla is its own market."
I think that's really correct, and really apt, especially in light of a recent analysis of the new JPM collar that dropped on Friday, where I anticipate a very violent and very major drop in the markets until Q3.
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
The point is that Tesla can (and has; and will) go up or go down regardless of what the indexes are doing
This call is also a continuation of a very successful call I had on Tesla posted in February. Things took several months to pan out to the downside and then to the upside, but everything came to fruition:
Tesla - $250 Is Coming... Don't Lose Your Legs In the Bear Trap
The key thing with Tesla, especially for the long term holders who think this company has a $3 trillion valuation in it like Apple does, is the Q4 dump to almost exactly $100 was anything but bullish.
But fortunately, this "bearishness" has manifested in a significant bounce, and, in my opinion, the Party hasn't yet stopped here.
Speaking of "The Party," you have to be very careful with Tesla because Elon Musk decided to root a huge bulk of his company's production with a Gigafactory in Shanghai-Babylon.
This leaves this company open to exceptionally enormous geopolitical and fundamental risks as President Xi Jinping faces the possibility of having to dump the Chinese Communist Party overnight, any night, because of the battle against both the remnants of the Jiang Zemin faction inside China and the "International Rules Based Order" that's rooted itself in Taiwan.
To put it plainly, the IRBO wants to take over China using someone it has groomed from The Republic when the CCP falls, with the idea being to take down Xi with the Party.
The "Jiang Faction" is significant because it's the architect and conductor of the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
The sins are grave to the extreme and can (and will) be weaponized to put an end to the threats to Cathay.
With Tesla, I believe it's going to dump, and with some fury. And during the process, you'll hear a lot of FUD about blah blah fundamentals this, blah blah "can you believe how this ponzi is dumping people who bought $250 will be generational bagholders" that on social media.
You need to ignore all of that, because the day Tesla breaks $100 is the day Tesla is finished.
Moreover, Tesla is about to give you a buying opportunity in the $180 range. Remember that whole adage about "buy the dip"?
You're about to get the opportunity, again, but it won't feel very good because things will be scary and it will seem like everything is going to zero, and tomorrow.
Seriously, read the JPM collar post above.
Once the dust has settled, if the April lows remain intact, then the next target is the equal highs printed in July to September before the enormous sell off, amounting to nearly another two bagger.
But perhaps what Tesla really is aiming for is something Musk can get high on.
If by early September you see the price bouncing and try to short, it'll more or less turn out as bad as it did for NVDIA bears.
No matter how you complain about P/E ratios and market cap and comparisons to Ford and Toyota, the reality is, this is what a bearish market structure actually looks like in action.
The banks sell on red and buy on green.
You buy on green and sell on red.
It's a painful reality, isn't it?
TSLA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term.
🔹Currently testing support at 210, which could potentially signal a POSITIVE reaction, but a downward breakthrough could indicate a NEGATIVE signal.
🔹Low RSI indicate oversold and potential rebound reaction.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Lucid Motors - As For Me, I Like The StockThe first thing I want to remind you of is that you should buy stocks when they're low, down, and red. Stop buying things when they're green and up bigly because you "see confirmation."
If you can't let go of this attachment to only believing in what you can see and not believing until you're shown, then the Bible story of Doubting Thomas is really something to give a read.
So about Lucid Motors: As for me, I like the stock.
Here's some reality:
1. Electric cars are a real thing now
2. Tesla needs competition
3. Luxury electric cars from BMW et. al. kind of suck and there's no real demand for them
4. Lucid has cars on the road and even The Wall Street Journal gave them a thinly veiled advertorial after the Saudis infused some blood
Also, although Lucid will soon be expanding into the China market, as of now there is no manufacturing in Mainland China.
This gives Lucid significant benefits in the not-being-subject-to geopolitical risk like Tesla with its Shanghai Gigafactory located in Babylon is.
Because one day in our lifetimes, I believe Xi Jinping will throw away the Chinese Communist Party like Gorbachev did in the 90s and everything will change because the persecution against Falun Gong launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it's dead now) will be totally exposed and much of the world will be implicated.
This will make life very hard for everyone who's been soliciting Shanghai (Babylon).
Moreover, right now, Lucid makes cars in Arizona and in Saudi Arabia. With the 2024 Presidential Election looming, a Donald Trump win would be huge for any "Made In America" company.
I'm not a huge fan of Trump, personally, but I think you should throw political bias away when it comes to analyzing the markets and figuring out how to invest your money/trade.
The financials for Lucid appear to indicate that spending and R&D is up. This is actually a good thing, because it's very, very hard and takes many, many years for a car manufacturer to be able to get roots down in society and become a household name.
It's going to be a "spend money to make money" kind of thing for Lucid.
Anyways, the raid on the all time lows after the Saudi announcement is a good thing.
You need to look at things backwards. Down is good if you want to buy. Up is good if you want to sell.
The last week's action is definitely bullish and you should be thinking of how to get long on a pullback.
The problem is, where can Lucid go?
At $7 it's already worth $14 billion mcap.
And unfortunately for everyone who WaNtS tO SeE a MoASsSsSSss the reality of getting one is you had a few minutes to sell the top and now the chart is a mess.
On the monthly and weekly
We can see that a healthy company would return to the $30 range.
But with that stupid MOASS candle blocking the way you really may not get anything better than $10.
I think the bear case if this is to go to $0 like MULN or some other dumpster fire coin is $15
All and all, if you go long here, can diamond hand a bit, and sell at $10 or $15, what exactly are you sad about?
Put the FUD aside and all the yammering about "the fundamentals" and ask yourself if you really want to sit on the sidelines here and watch this thing do what IONQ has done until you "see confirmation" like Doubting Thomas saw his Master's spear wound after Lord Yahweh's Resurrection.
Ultimately, I think we're going to see a pullback into the opening of July, but we need to see July rip over $8.50 for this to really be a long.
But if you want for it to do that you might wake up to find $11 and it's already too late for regrets.
Don't leave yourself with regrets.
Use faith.
RIVN Rivian Automotive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold RIVN on the recalls:
Or last time ahead of earnings:
Then Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UPWK Upwork prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $1.92.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
FSR setting up LONGFSR as shown on the 2H chart current has its price sitting near to the
lower Bollinger Band and is supported by both the mean VWP anchored back
in mid June when the price was bouncing over and under the basis band of
the Bollingers. Price is also supported by confluence between that mean VWAP
and the short term POC line of the volume profile showing validity and balance
in recent trading above this zrea. The Chris Moody MACD indicator shows the
lines crossed under the histogram which went red to a tiny green and also
generated a green ball, a buy signal of sorts. FSR has been on a pullback for
about ten trading days. The analysis is that it is now ready to trend back up.
Overall,
I see this as a long trade setup targeting first the basis band of the Bollingers
at 6.50 then the upper band at 6.80 and finally as a target for any runners the
second deviation line above the mean VWAP (thick red) at 7.20. Although FSR
is highly volatile I assert that buying low more often than not leads to sellng higher.
PSNY Polestar EV Sector Penny Stock LONGPSNY ( www.nasdaq.com
production-race) as a niche EV manufacturer has a production schedule which rivals
LCID, RIVN FSR and others. On the 15 minute chart shows the trend down of price and
then a reversal deep in the undervalued and oversold area of the lower VWAP bands.
The MACD shows lines crossed and then ascending crossing over the zero line and
positive histogram. The dual time frame has consistent information with rising RS shown
in both time frames. Price has crossed over the POC line of the volume profile suggesting
buyers have predominated. I will take a long trade here targeting first VWAP at 4.55 and
then 4.75 the level of the double top of July 18/19 with a stop loss below the POC line
at 4.32 the stop loss of a dime compares with the profit potential as analyzed.
RIVN is showing a pullback for a long entryRIVN on the 2H chart rose 67% to begin July as part of the larger EV sector rally
which included several other tickers including those from UK and China. It has
pulled back significantly since completing a double top on July 13th. Price is
now hovering over and supported by the mean VWAP line anchored to July 1st.
The two time frame RSI indicator shows both lower (blue line) ane higher time
frame ( black line) RSIs at 50 or higher with the blue line closer to that transition
zone. The zero-lag MACD shows the subtle cross under the histogram which
has changed from negative to positive. Overall, although the best entry is at
$20 from a very deep pullback, I believe that RIVN is now setup for a long trade
following a continuation or even a call option contracts trade. I will take a
position in call options at this time.
Rivian 'Dead Cat Bounce' Over?I have been getting a lot of questions from followers about NASDAQ:RIVN in recent weeks. One of the favorites of the 2021 EV stock craze the share price has done not performed well since the IPO. This recent very bullish move has gotten a lot of attention but I think it has come to an end.
Price Action
Like most of my setups I am looking at RIVN hitting a major 50% Retracement this one being from the downtrend starting in September 2022 through April 2023. That Resistance at 26.71 was hit yesterday and today's price action shows reluctance to test and break it. I have been looking for a pullback to this bull trend to its own 50% Retracement at around ~20 and it may be upon us.
The Trade
Earnings are coming up on August 8th. That sets up a nice window for monthly options of the August 18th expiration. Since 20 is the approximate pullback level it also makes for a proper strike. That means Aug23 20 Puts will be the choice to express the trade. If price breaks the recent high I may look to cut them as they should maintain their premium with earnings getting closer. I also do not typically hold through earnings but rather try to close the day before to avoid the 50/50 probability of the binary event.
The Narrative
I still see the occasional Rivian on the road but as of late I have become a Tesla Maxi. Tesla had record production and delivery for Q2 2023 but every other EV manufacturer is struggling according to recent reports. The market as a whole has enjoyed an optimistic bull run since March and is due for a pullback.
PSNY a niche EV manufacturer penny stock LONGPSNY has seen a price rise of 30 % in the past month. This specialty EV manufacturer
does not compete with TSLA but only perhaps ARVL also based in the UK.
The 2H chart is quite healthy. Price broke out above the mean VWAP anchored to the beginning
of the year on July 3rd and is now approaching one standard deviation above that. The MTF
RSI shows both the one hour and daily RSIs crossed over 50 the same day. On the MACD
indicator the K and D lines crossed confluent with the horizontal zero line. Signs of bullish
momentum found, I will take a long trade targeting 25% of upside at $6.00 which is the double
top on January 31/ Feb 1 as well as three standard deviations above the mean aVWAP.
MULN trading the volatility LongOn the 30 minute chart, MULN has pulled back from a brief uptrend. I see things suitable for
an entry. I have added to the chart, the anchored VWAP lines serving as dynamic support and
resistance. The mean VWAP will be my designated stop loss while lines one and two
standard deviations above that are the first and second targets.
Overall, the long trade is projecting a ROI of 27% compared with the stop loss
of 11%. This trade could play out in only one day given MULN's volatility. The zero-lag
MACD shows a line cross impending and confluent with the zero horizontal line. The
relative volatility oscillator shows the magnitude of the shifts in that regard. From my
perspective, no matter the fundamentals of the financial health of MULN, the volatility
of the price action and technicals can be played long with high potential profit.