Rivnlong
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: $RIVN) Meteoric Rise
Rivian (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RIVN ) has been a roller coaster since its initial public offering (IPO) in late 2021. Except it's only been one part of the roller coaster ride: the part where it sharply drops. Rivian has shed roughly 80% of its value since its IPO, but as the company heads into 2024 with some momentum, is the time finally right for investors to jump back in?
Fundamentals Analysis
New batteries
Let's talk about something else that could move the needle for Rivian investors: its new battery packs. Recently its chief financial officer, Claire McDonough, detailed a couple of interesting battery developments.
Rivian is introducing a standard battery pack that lowers the selling price of R1 vehicles from roughly $78,000 down to $70,000, opening up a larger addressable market. But it also teased a new battery that's simpler to manufacture. The simpler battery is expected to remove thousands of dollars of costs from production.
That's perfect timing for a company that has its sights set on becoming gross-profit positive in 2024 and has already made substantial progress in cutting its loss per vehicle. In fact, its gross profit per vehicle improved by $2,000 sequentially in the third quarter.
Better yet, Rivian will begin construction of its Georgia plant in early 2024, which will set the stage to roll out its new R2 vehicles by 2026. Those vehicles are set to sell for roughly $30,000 less than its R1 vehicles, broadening its target market.
Is Rivian a Buy?
NASDAQ:RIVN is truly making improvements in a lot of areas, including reducing its cash crunch, expanding its options to sell delivery vans, and setting the stage for new vehicles and new battery packs. And it hasn't had to deal with tense labor negotiations because its sole factory is not unionized. Remember that Ford and GM are busy offsetting billions in cost increases from their new United Auto Workers contracts.
Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:RIVN ) is trading above the 50, 100 & 200-day Moving Averages Respectively, indicating continual of the current trend.
$RIVN's Key Buy Levels After 20%+ Intraday DeclineNEWS
Rivian Automotive Inc's made the decision to issue $1.5 billion worth of convertible green bonds.Here's a breakdown of what's happening:
Share Price Drop: Rivian's stock price plummeted by over 20% on the day of the announcement. It's the most significant daily percentage decline for the company's shares since May of the previous year.
Convertible Green Bonds: The company announced its intention to issue $1.5 billion in convertible green bonds. Convertible bonds are debt securities that can be converted into a company's stock under specific conditions. Being labeled as "green" means the funds raised from these bonds are earmarked for environmentally friendly or climate-focused projects.
Purpose of the Bonds: Rivian intends to use the proceeds from the bond sale to support the launch of its R2 sports utility vehicle in Georgia. By doing so, they aim to "de-risk" this vehicle's launch, implying they're using the funds to mitigate potential financial challenges or uncertainties associated with this launch.
Not the First Time: This isn't Rivian's first foray into green bonds. The company issued a $1.3 billion convertible green bond in March of the same year to support another vehicle family launch.
Market Reaction and Analysis: Elliot Johnson from Evolve ETFs commented that the decision to raise funds came earlier than what the market expected. While Rivian's earnings matched expectations, and they are on course with vehicle shipments, the early fundraising and potential dilution of shares from the convertible bonds might concern investors. Rivian, still seen by some as a speculative business, is raising capital ahead of anticipated timelines, which could be perceived as a sign of cash flow challenges or other unexpected expenses.
Rivian's Performance and Cash Position: Rivian, competing in the electric vehicle market against giants like Tesla, has been investing heavily to boost production. Despite these investments, they have posted positive production and delivery numbers. They've forecasted substantial revenue growth and, as of the end of September, held $9.1 billion in cash reserves, albeit down from $10.2 billion a few months earlier. The CEO had previously indicated that the company's available funds were sufficient to sustain operations till 2025 while controlling costs.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The news went public when RIVN was sitting at the white resistance line, and RIVN has already suffered a 20%+ decline today. I believe that the bleeding has just started, and there are two key price levels where RIVN could potentially bottom out over the next few weeks. The first is the orange support level, and the second is the yellow support zone. I believe that RIVN will have a strong rebound once this bottoms out, and will continue to give updates when a buy opportunity is presented. There is a Ichimoku cloud of resistance that is suppressing RIVN's price at current price levels, the RSI has a lot of room to drop, and this bearish news has caused RIVN to lose support at the midrange of the Bollinger Band. The EMA ribbon is also acting as a zone of resistance that is suppressing RIVN's price.
Analyzing RIVN's Outperformance Over TSLA Amidst Cash BurnToday, I would like to draw your attention to an intriguing market trend that has caught the attention of many investors - the outperformance of RIVN stock compared to TSLA, despite RIVN's ongoing cash burn. While this phenomenon may raise eyebrows, it is essential to approach it with a cautious and analytical mindset. Let's delve into the reasons behind this unexpected market behavior and explore why some investors are considering a long position on RIVN.
1. Dissecting RIVN's Outperformance:
a) Market Sentiment: Investors are drawn to RIVN's potential as a disruptor in the EV industry, which has fueled a positive market sentiment.
b) Growth Prospects: RIVN's innovative technologies, such as its autonomous driving capabilities and unique battery technology, have garnered attention for their potential to revolutionize the EV market.
c) Competitive Advantage: RIVN's focus on the luxury EV segment, along with its strong brand image, has positioned the company as a formidable competitor to TSLA.
1. Understanding RIVN's Cash Burn
2. A Cautious Call-to-Action
a) In-depth Research: Dive into RIVN's financial reports, growth projections, and competitive landscape to gain a comprehensive understanding of the company's position.
b) Risk Assessment: Evaluate the risks associated with RIVN's cash burn and weigh them against the potential rewards of its growth prospects.
c) Diversification: Ensure that any investment in RIVN aligns with your overall investment strategy and risk tolerance. Diversify your portfolio to mitigate potential risks.
d) Expert Opinions: Seek insights from trusted financial advisors or industry experts who can provide informed opinions on RIVN's prospects.
In conclusion, RIVN's outperformance over TSLA, despite its cash burn, has sparked interest among investors. However, it is vital to approach this opportunity with caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Remember, the stock market is inherently unpredictable, and it is crucial to make informed choices based on a well-rounded analysis of the available information.
+42% Rivian Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an American electric vehicle manufacturer and automotive technology company founded in 2009. Rivian is building an electric sport utility vehicle (SUV) and pickup truck on a "skateboard" platform that can support future vehicles or be adopted by other companies. An electric delivery van is also being built as part of a partnership with Amazon. Rivian started deliveries of its R1T pickup truck in late 2021. The company plans to build an exclusive charging network in the United States and Canada by the end of 2023.
Rivian is based in Irvine, California, with its manufacturing plant in Normal, Illinois, and other facilities in Palo Alto, California; Carson, California; Plymouth, Michigan; Vancouver, British Columbia; Wittmann, Arizona; and Woking, England. Additionally, Rivian has plans to build another US$5 billion factory in Georgia.
The company raised over US$13.5 billion in financing following its IPO in November 2021.
Promising Falling Wedge Pattern on $RIVNGreetings, Traders! Today, I'm excited to share a compelling technical analysis finding on the stock of Rivian Automotive ( NASDAQ:RIVN ). A falling wedge pattern has been identified, suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal in the near future. Let's delve into the details!
📈 Ticker: NASDAQ:RIVN
📅 Timeframe: Daily Chart
📊 Pattern: Falling Wedge
📉 Understanding the Falling Wedge Pattern:
A falling wedge is a bullish chart pattern characterized by converging trendlines that slope downward. Typically formed during a downtrend, it indicates diminishing selling pressure and the potential for a reversal. This pattern suggests the possibility of an upward price movement.
🔍 Identifying the Falling Wedge on NASDAQ:RIVN :
Upon analyzing the daily chart of NASDAQ:RIVN , the following observations come to light:
1️⃣ Recent downtrend: NASDAQ:RIVN has experienced a decline in price over the past weeks.
2️⃣ Converging trendlines: The upper trendline connects the lower highs, while the lower trendline connects the lower lows.
3️⃣ Decreasing trading volume: As the falling wedge pattern forms, the trading volume has been declining, indicating a potential reduction in selling pressure.
📈 Price Targets and Trading Strategy:
If the falling wedge pattern on NASDAQ:RIVN plays out as anticipated, a potential bullish breakout above the upper trendline might occur, triggering a reversal and potential price appreciation. Consider the following price targets:
1️⃣ Target 1: Resistance level near $100.00
2️⃣ Target 2: Psychological resistance near $120.00
🛡️ Risk Management:
Proper risk management is essential for successful trading. Implement the following risk management techniques:
1️⃣ Set a stop-loss order below the lower trendline to protect against unexpected price fluctuations.
2️⃣ Adjust position size based on your risk tolerance and overall portfolio management strategy.
🔔 Conclusion:
Stay vigilant as Rivian Automotive ( NASDAQ:RIVN ) continues to develop this falling wedge pattern. The formation suggests the potential for a bullish reversal in the near future. However, remember that technical analysis is not foolproof, and market conditions can change rapidly. Consider integrating this analysis with other relevant factors before making trading decisions.
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Happy Trading! 📈💰
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RIVN - Building nice multiple bottoms pattern
Test of 200 DMA seems to be in progress. What happens tomorrow could be vital.
If it can break above 16, can squeeze right up to 22 first and then 26.
Failure here again would send this to new low.
Alternate scenario is it keeps building inside the 200 and 60 DMA.
I took a start position today at 15. Will add or trim as PA reveals the trend.
RIVN DAILY WOLFE WAVE ACTIVEAnother daily wolfe wave setup was triggered post midterms. The chart for RIVN is closing in on the 200 day ma which will act as short term resistance. Typically the first attempt usually rejects which will be approx at 37.4. Mid term tgt is estimated at $54 May 2023. With tax losses and Christmas rally into end of year, we should see most of the small caps rally and accelerate into Feb 2023. Keep in mind there is an open gap at $140.
Last Chance to Buy Rivian Before Major Bull RunThis is a daily chart of EV manufacturer Rivian Automotive ( RIVN ).
Price continues to consolidate as the moving averages converge.
On the right-hand side is the indicator called the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). This indicator provides a vertical histogram of volume. The volume bars help identify the price ranges where most volume has occurred, which helps traders identify areas of support and resistance.
The indicator provides a red line to show the exact price level with the greatest trading volume and therefore the strongest point of support or resistance. When price comes down, as in the case of Rivian, and then forms a red line on the VRVP, it often becomes an important support level. An extremely bullish perspective might even go so far as to surmise that this area of support is the bottom for Rivian and that a major bull run is about to unfold with this red line as its support area.
From a Wyckoff analysis, one might conclude that accumulation is occurring. According to that analysis, price can retest the low right before the breakout phase.
Also, note Rivian's outperformance in the month of June. Even as inflation and commodities were soaring, major indices were gapping down, and the Fed was accelerating hiking rates, Rivian continued to consolidate, trading in a tight range and making higher lows (see below chart).
Rivian's outperformance of the broader index, after such a prolonged decline, is probably an early sign of a trend reversal and likely reflects that smart money is accumulating. A good chartist would know that inflation is cooling because commodities are now being resisted by the lines that once supported their upward trend. Necessarily, aggressive interest rate hike expectations will soon cool, too. The market is always forward-looking. By the time the Fed says that inflation is cooling and makes a pivot to being less aggressive, smart money will already be fully in the market.
Therefore, there is high confidence that Rivian may soon break out to the upside (probably in July). Don't let a temporary oscillation to the downside fool you. Nonetheless, as always, have your stop losses in place as the market can act irrationally longer than you can stay solvent. Never be unwilling to accept that you're wrong. Trading isn't about being right, it's about preserving and growing capital.
RIVN - Hourly Thoughts RIVN has broken out of a long downtrend for the first time (dashed line)
This break out in my opinion will be short lived and a retest above this line will occur
This retest will also result in a double bottom along a horizontal
Double curved line indicates my thoughts on price action
If a retest does not result, break out further will ensue
RIVN you can still buy it cheaper than Soros If you haven`t bought the all time low here:
then you should know that you can still buy cheaper than George Soros.
Billionaire investor George Soros bought a $2 billion stake in electric truck startup Rivian in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
His average should be around $100.
My short term price target is 69.50.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Buy RIVN cheaper than George SorosBillionaire investor George Soros bought a $2 billion stake in electric truck startup Rivian in the quarter ended Dec. 31.
His average should be around $100.
RIVN 52 Week Range $37.50 - 179.47, today hitting all time low.
I see this as a potential buy opportunity.
My price target is $65.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Rivian Stock RIVN Strength SignalsRivian stock RIVN has rallied 5.87% Wednesday to close at $64.53. The stock has shown some strength recently aiming for the downward trend’s reversal after confirming the formation of both; higher low, and a bottoming reversal pattern.
The stock RIVN could extend its rally hitting 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level that corresponds to the reversal pattern’s minimum target at $80.60 point on the short term.
$RIVN Elliott wave I don’t trade based off news events, like earnings, but I was doing the chart and when I finished I didn’t realize earnings come out today. I’m still going to enter my trade, just smaller. I went back and forth on different count set ups… I finally just picked this one as I think it is most consistent with EW rules theory.
Green = overall primary structure I’m looking at as the fib points align with the EW impulse counts upwards. 5 blue waves give us a Green wave “i” up and a retrace wave “ii” down to the .618 fib, which falls into a demand zone.
*Orange = this came from part of a different count, but keeping it in here. I think it supports completion of Green “ii” down as it supports an ending abcde pattern.
I think we are starting Green wave “iii” upwards. Wave 3’s are most powerful. Only “news” I’ll throw into this is it could be a supporting catalyst that with a good earnings outlook, it could really boost the wave 3.
Targets upside are $130; $140; and $150
$RIVN Rivian Motors TA Upcoming Week$RIVN Rivian Motors Technicals for upcoming week.
NOTES:
- Rivian Motors has had ATH @ $180/s last week with a break correction currently at $128
- WATCH RVIN line at $120:
-- IF The lines breaks the stock can have a down-trend towards $95/s range
-- IF There is a bounce, stock will continue up-trend towards $180/s range
--Crucial that you watch that line within the next few days
FUNDEMENTALS:
- We typically only do technical here, but important to know that as of writing this the stock futures are -200pnts currently.