Arcadia Biosciences Rises on Wheat Hype
Last Closing Price: $2.62
50-Day Simple Moving Average: $1.10
Volume Weighted Average Price: $2.43
Relative Strength Index: 85.27
20-Day Average Daily Volume: 5,403,900
Shares Outstanding: 22,184,235
Available Borrow: 45,000
Borrow Fee Rate: 40.62%
Just a month ago, Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. ( NASDAQ:RKDA ) was a penny stock in danger of delisting. But over the past three weeks, the stock has delivered a series of one-day gains as high as 31%. Today, it closed up 34% at $2.62 per share, its highest price since last July. What’s driving the rally?
Maybe investors believe the company will benefit from rising wheat prices caused by sanctions against Russia. Since 2018, Arcadia has sold a line of specialty wheat ingredients for use in consumer packaged goods. But wheat products still account for a small percentage of the company’s total revenue, which isn’t much. As of Sep. 30, Arcadia had earned just $4,609,000 of revenue in the first nine months of 2021, and more than half of that came from acquisitions.
In seven years as a publicly traded company, Arcadia has never reported an operating profit or positive cash flow except for a windfall it received in the fourth quarter of 2020 from the sale of its interest in a joint venture. Rather than generating cash, the company has survived on one dilutive stock offering after another. In the process, it has acquired a significant overhang of outstanding warrants with exercise prices below the stock’s current market price. The owners of the warrants aren’t the type to wait patiently.
Living hand to mouth
A registration statement that Arcadia filed in January reveals a long list of selling shareholders that specialize in financing needy micro-cap companies. And they’re just the ones that participated in Arcadia’s Dec. 2020 private placement . Since 2018, Arcadia has sold stock and warrants in eight offerings, often relying on a $50,000,000 shelf registration filed in May 2018. In two of the financings, investors agreed to exercise warrants they had acquired in prior offerings at reduced exercise prices in exchange for newly issued warrants with even lower exercise prices.
Just over four years ago, Arcadia effected a one-for-twenty reverse stock split, reducing its shares outstanding to 2,481,137. As of Dec. 31, 2021, shares outstanding had ballooned to 22,184,235. During the same four-year period, the company’s accumulated deficit swelled from $167,300,000 to $217,203,000, and the market price of its stock sunk from a high of $47.99 per share on Mar. 14, 2018 to a low of $0.78 per share on Jan. 28, 2022.
The warrants Arcadia sold during the past four years had exercise prices ranging from $3.00 to $45.75 per share. As of Dec. 31, 2021, Intracoastal Capital, LLC beneficially owned 1,058,559 shares of Arcadia issuable upon exercise of warrants. The market price of Arcadia’s stock would have to rise above $3.00 per share before Intracoastal could profit from selling any shares it acquired from exercising warrants .
Motivated sellers
At the end of last year, Hudson Bay Capital, LLC beneficially owned 890,049 shares of Arcadia issuable upon exercise of warrants. From Mar. 2018 through Jun. 2019, the hedge fund participated in Arcadia’s offerings of warrants with exercise prices ranging from $5.00 to $45.75 per share. Depending on when they were issued, the warrants expire five and a half years after the issuance date or the initial exercise date.
The holders of Arcadia’s warrants have an incentive to bid up the company’s stock price to an amount that will allow them to exercise and sell profitably. We are not suggesting that any of them are manipulating prices or violating securities laws. Regardless, if they begin exercising warrants and liquidating newly issued shares, the sales will put downward pressure on Arcadia’s stock price. That’s why we believe the stock won’t maintain the loftiest prices it reaches in the current rally.
As of Sep. 30, 2021, Arcadia had $35,526,000 in cash. But the company used $19,208,000 to fund its operations in the first nine months of last year. At that rate, the company is likely to raise capital again within the next four quarters. Moreover, the company’s 2018 shelf registration has approximately $11,000,000 of remaining capacity, which could allow Arcadia to issue shares available for immediate resale, further diluting shareholders.
RKDA
Developing TradeWe have a super strong support and unusual volume today. It is an earning play which could help propel the next bull cicle of the stock.
Rsi in line with predictions and afterhours activity seem to indicate a nice buildup for a great day. Trade only above breaks and volume must maintain during the day. Wait for flush at open and ride the wave. It breaks support its a shhhh show.
For swing trade this is a great entry point once the smoke clears tomorrow. The risk reward raio its perfect..Stop right below support.
This stock its full of false breaks so thread carefully.
Remeber its a sale the news almost always...unless there is momentum ..volume volume voume, watch pre market to confirm trend its holding.
Lotto Ticket Play, Highly ManipulatedJust something I remembered from a few years back. Love that tradingview play button, so figured I'd post the look just to see what will happen. Noticed it was moving.
Back in 2018, for awhile it was the darling of speculatives in the weed stock sector, rising from sub $1.00 to $15.00. That was back when TLRY blew up the stock market.
They recently entered into a deal with Benchmark for a $75,000,000 ATM offering. Again, there's probably much better plays out there; just posting the view -- not really bullish or bearish..
Cheers and good luck.
Long entry on RKDAThe stock broke out on more than 20 times its average daily volume, but ran out of steam.
Shares pulled back to find buyers where we would expect, here at the high-volume area.
Investors may consider a long entry here with a tight stop, anticipating a re-test and possible break of the previous highs near $6.50.
RKDA: Best BUY opportunity during FEBRUARY bear marketFundamentally Arcadia has always done well during bear markets, August 2019 it went from a low of 2.07 to a high of 10.18. Previously in February 2019 it fluctuated from 3.76 to 10.34.
Technically we can see a rounding bottom w/ bump turning into a cup with handle (yellow line=handle). after the CUP w/ HANDLE hits it will create an ADAM bottom to accompany the EVE bottom (previously rounding bottom), and we can expect a big BULLISH trend.
Wow, an explosion!Hello Traders! This stock came up today with good news on profitable outlook! Looking at the technical's they look strong for a potential continuation tomorrow, so ill be watching. For the uptrend to continue we will need to see a break and re-test of the 10.45 level. That would give us the best opportunity to enter for bullish play. For the shorts, the main level we will be watching 9.00 , as a break and re-test below there as it would break the current structure. Make sure to set your alerts! And good luck! Dont forget to LIKE and FOLLOW for more! Find my video analysis on youtube! Have a great rest of your day!
9 Million Warrants Priced At 1.62. Short, Medium size, Entry 3/4The Stated Value of the Preferred Shares is $20.00 per unit, and the annual interest payment, which is to be paid out in quarterly installments, is 8%".
That translates into $2,000,000 worth of shares per year. In regards to the warrants, if we multiply 7.41 by 1 250 000, we get 9,262,500 common shares, and it says that the warrants are exercisible ***immediately @ $1.62 per share***
During the 60 days prior to May 31, 2019, and from the Event Date to the date hereof, Arosa Capital, on behalf of Arosa Opportunistic Fund, sold 178,333 shares of Common Stock, as follows:
Date Quantity Price Type of Transaction
May 2, 2019 159,955 $0.9074 Open Market Sale
May 3, 2019 18,378 $0.9165 Open Market Sale
Says a lot about how much confidence they had in the valuation at that time, and this was before Trump pumped it on twitter.
On May 31, 2019, the Company entered into a Subscription Agreement with Arosa Opportunistic Fund, in which Arosa Opportunistic Fund purchased (i) 305,000 shares of Series B Preferred Stock, with a stated value of $20.00 per share (the “Stated Value”) and a par value of $0.001 per share (the “Preferred Stock”), and (ii) warrants to purchase up to 2,260,050 shares of Common Stock at an exercise price of $1.62 per share (the “2019 Warrants” and together with the 2018 Warrants, the “Warrants”), subject to the Exercise Limitation. The Preferred Stock is not convertible and does not hold voting rights. The Preferred Stock is entitled to annual dividends at a rate equal to 8.0% simple interest per annum on the Stated Value. Accrued dividends are payable quarterly in shares of Common Stock based on a share price of $1.62.
1 250 000/305 000= 4.09(2,260,050) = The amount of warrants the preferred share holders are entitled to receive as part of the preferred share units
There is also warrants exercisible at $1.25
We should assume that the rest of the warrants went to Marathon
This chart pattern, and the way to price closed today, is almost a sure fire indication that they are unloading some of those warrants. Cheers, and happy trading everyone.
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LEDS analysis, ready for nice movementThis is a low floater with huge potential to run, very similar to RKDA. I called RKDA, and this has a very similar setup with similar potential. Notes, as well as BL and SL info on chart. Looking to open a small position here for a nice run. Leave questions or comments below if you have anything to add. Thanks!