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USDCNH Bottomed / BTC-Crypto ForecastDear traders, I believe we are at a critical juncture here. Quite possibly, China allowing shorting of their currency might have made the $USDCNH pair bottom last Friday. This is no minor news, and if we study the chart we might be able to understand the relationship between the chinese Yuan and cryptocurrencies. Since 2014, that $USDCNH bottomed, it spent a long time basing, before starting a prolonged bull market. On the way up, said bull market was showing signs of exhaustion, which us, using the Time @ Mode methodology could see and anticipate. ByFebruary 2017, it was clear that bull market had ran its course, at least for a few months. After a period of distribution, with the government making efforts to strengthen the Yuan, severely punishing speculators, forbidding the shorting of the currency, and increasing rates to borrow the Yuan, the market topped and started a strong decline. The signals on chart indicated a fall to at least 6.54509 was warranted, within March/April until November/December 2017. Since this target was exceeded, it is likely that the market is bottoming, or possible bottomed. This doesn’t mean mmedate upside, but possibly a period of basing in the daily or weekly timeframe might ensue. This aligns with the time duration of the decline, ending by November or December of this year. After the end of November, if $USDCNH bases around here, the market will be ready to surge upwards during December! How does this matter for cryptocurrencies? Well, the long term forecast I made available long ago, with the only change being the price target getting extended to 6303.98, had a time duration of 20 months, culminating during November/December 2017. This also happens to correlate nicely with the timing of fundamental events that can derail the bull market in crypto like the Segwit2x hard fork, and interestingly, with a period that already started, that of increased scrutiny and regulatory oversight, which might culminate in the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC, which is what the long term technical charts suggest. Now, what are the risks? There is a chance we already topped, since target #1 in the weekly was hit, and we already saw some pressure from bears lately, but there is a larger probability that the market won’t fall immediately, since I assume that the smart money will need time to liquidate their holdings. How can they buy themselves time now? Maybe approving an ETF for trading in the US, like the Winklevoss, and maybe even the ETH ETF surfaces and is approved...But, I’m pretty sure, that the writings are on the wall, the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC is well overdue, so, I will start taking precautions. First, I will look to accumulate long positions in the $USDCNH pair, as my first move, and econd, I will be ready to hedge or liquidate holdings if needed, to then redistribute to my other accounts in equities and currencies, reducing my crypto position to only 25% of my net worth. If we do start a bear market, shorting might be a profitable endeavor, so, why not? In the short term, I’m following sentiment and technical charts, to determine if my bullish outlook is correct or not. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
39
USDCNH: PBOC gave us a nice discount in BTC and USDCNHFollowing the PBOC's manipulation and the massive drop for two days, price is starting to slow down. I think we will see a bottom here shortly. If we don't hit 6.7696 before Monday's close, we can anticipate a turn here. After the week closes, we'll get more confirmation of the risks in BTC and USDCNH. It could take as long as 3 weeks to confirm upside is viable again, so let's keep close watch of this and don't miss the discount to enter the long side again. I'll update this one as needed. As a sidenote, it's interesting to see volatility increase in this pair, it tends to move very little compared to other FX dollar crosses. An increase in volatility and liquidity might make traders become interested in it, which would create more opportunities and potentially higher win rate signals with increased liquidity. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDCNY: The trend that keeps on givingI'd like to bring your attention to the $USDCNY monthly chart here. If we examine previous levels of support and resistance, and analyze price action using Tim West's methods, we could conclude that the uptrend in this pair, and logically, the one in Bitcoin, has still ample upside in its future. It would be logical to observe 19% more upside in $USDCNY, and 760% more in $BTCCNY, if we maintain the current uptrend speed, which is yet to be seen. For now, we can look to fade short term and intermediate term selloffs in these instruments, with considerable comfort, and a rather high win rate. My preference is to hold bitcoin positions, but we can speculate on both instruments, and also in smaller timeframes. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
USDCNH: Potential long term topWith oil rallying, and China soon to be accepted by the IMF, to include the Yuan in the SDR currency basket, the technicals in this chart suddenly look very good to me. You could go short here, with stops above yesterday's high to begin with. The currencies not affected by today's fear spike due to Deutsche Bank's shock were: the Euro (surprisingly!), XAU, XAG, CHF, CNH, so, we know these are relatively stronger (same as oil and other commodities). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3