Robertpapon
Forecast for 2017Current traffic growth will only be a correction in the strong downward trend. The differences in the activities of central banks will continue to support the dollar, which should lead eurodollar to new lows. The aim at the moment seems to be the level of 1.0214 (peak of July 2012) and 1.00 A further target is at the level of 0.94.
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (12.12-16.12)Last week was the end of the correction from 1.0504, which reached just above an important resistance zone, located on levels 1,0847-64. Accordingly, the maximum target correction was completed and returned to the market declines. Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which again may lead to greater volatility. However, in the longer term still applies downward trend.
The first trading hours should elapse under the dictation of the demand side, which will be willing to lead to a correction decline from the level of 1.0873. Increases should be limited in nature and should not exceed the levels 1,0600-31. Perhaps here we can see a trend side pending the meeting of the Federal Reserve. Then, after the expected correction we should go back in the direction of the last holes 1,0504-31, which break open the way toward last year's lows 1.0490 and 1,0456-60. Signal to the stronger downward movement, may be the information contained in the minutes of the FOMC.
Note: if the market will be strongly disappointed with the result of the meeting of the Federal Reserve, once again we see strong growth and perhaps a return to recent highs.
Analysis and forecasts for the pair EUR / USD at 25/11/16During Friday's session, we should see a continuation of today's gains. No readings in the first part of the day and the limited activity of investors from the US, should support demand. In this variant, after crossing the 1.0567 level, the demand should direct towards 1.0585 (maximum of Thursday). Another goal remains the level of 1.06, while the maximum goal for the moment, seem to be the last peaks located at levels 1,0649-57.
Whereas afternoon readings in the US, you should designate alternative variant, which assumes further declines. In this case, the correction again is completed. Supply should be directed toward 1,0492-1,0518 The maximum target for the supply seems to be support 1,0456-60. On the last of the levels I would expect activation of the demand side. Certainly last year's lows, should be a strong barrier to the supply side.
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (14.11-18.11)In my opinion, the beginning of the week should elapse for the local correction towards resistance level at 1.09 and 1.0938. Another fairly distant goal can be the level of 1.10. Higher price levels should be a good opportunity to open short positions. After adjusting I expect further declines toward this year's lows (1.0709)
It should be emphasized that the dollar should remain strong against the euro, which will be affected by the action of central banks. The ECB still faces the problem of low inflation, which should lead to changes in the QE program. The next meeting is scheduled for December. By contrast, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at last year's meeting. Chances are valued by the market at present 81%.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 10/13/16After the recent strong decline should expect a correction. The downward movement already has almost 200 pips.
Resistance level of 1.1050 and 1.1079.
It is worth emphasizing that when it comes to breaking the Wednesday minimum (1.1004), the supply should be directed toward support 1,0970-80 and only with this price level, we should expect a corrective movement. After completing the adjustment expect further declines.
The embodiment of motion correction is denied, in the case of overcoming support at 1.0970. The next target for the supply of support is at 1.0952 and 1.0909.
In the longer term, the dollar should continue to gain, due to expectations of another rate hike in the US. Further declines should be interrupted local adjustments.
EUR/USD long termThe situation on the Eurodollar market has not changed significantly, despite the recent volatility. All the time stuck in extended trading sideways around the level of 1.12, which is around 61.8% fibo increases the level of 0.8231 - 1.6038. However, there is thing I would especially like to draw attention. Looking at the graph interval of one month, we note that Eurodollar located in a triangle formation. With this in mind, and that this formation was preceded by strong declines, it seems that it should come to the bottom of issue. However, the upper limit is in the vicinity of 1,14-1,15, which is not deleted completely on the demand side. In addition, we can conclude that the last three months were characterized by the smallest range of fluctuation in the history of this currency pair. which may suggest that we are in the last phase. Breaking bottom may be preceded by increases in the level around 1.1427. Then breaking through the lower supply constraints, will open the way towards 1,0730-1,08. (Trend line growth led to the level of 0.8231).
The above outline of the situation as regards the very long term. However, it has now consider what draws a Eurodollar future, in the context of the next months. This technical arrangement would be in line with the fundamental situation, which implies a further weakening of the euro against the dollar. (Further increases in US interest rates and a possible expansion of the program QE by the ECB).
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 09/21/16The shape of the candle daily may suggest further declines, but whereas the Wednesday meeting of the FOMC, it seems more probable expectation and thus - lateral trend between 1,1149-1,1180. More likely to see declines in the evening and the movement of such could take place after the meeting of the Fed. Therefore, you should reckon with a fracture of the recent lows 1.1149 and 1,1123-30 (hole of 31 August). Further props levels are 1.1076 (23.6% fib level falls 1,11617-1,0909) and 1.1045 (minimum of 5 August). Very strong support levels zone extends between 1,0950-76.
In my opinion, a variant of further declines, and supply advantage for me is the preferred option. Negating this option will transfer pigeons Fed, which will lead to strong growth towards 1.1285 and 1.1346.
On Wednesday evening, after the meeting of the Federal Reserve, should expect strong fluctuations on the Eurodollar market.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 07/09/16Today there was to break above the downtrend line, drawn from the top level of 1.1617. From a technical point of view, the demand side gained an advantage, but I do not think that further increases could be continued without the abolition of part of the gains. Therefore, Wednesday's session may take for correction. In my opinion currency pair should move between levels 1,1217-63. (Alternative Version involves crossing Tuesday's rush towards 1.1288, and only at this altitude will see counterattack supply side).
On Thursday, we have a conference Mario Draghi, which may lead to greater volatility and this should be taken into account in their investment strategy. (Mario Draghi could give a signal to the weakening of the single currency. If that happens, it's killing over the downtrend line will once again prove to be false).
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (05.09-09.09)Currency pair after Friday breaking above the downtrend line (drawn from the summit at the level of 1.1617), in the second part of the day back below of that line. On Monday due to the Labor Day in the US liquidity may be lower, but the demand side will try to correct some declines. Therefore, the movement toward the 1,1174-86 seems very likely. Considering the lack of data I do not think that the demand was able to bring back to above the level of 1.12. (The first important data will be released only on Tuesday).
Alternate version assumes deepening declines towards 1,1123-30 and only at this altitude counterattack see the demand side. Breaking down the last support 1.1123 will signal further declines.
Subjectively looking at the eurodollar market, I assume further weakening the single currency.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 08/17/16On Tuesday there was a strong growth, which broke last important resistance. Overcoming the level of 1.1233 is a signal that there has been to knock the mountain with more than several weeks side trend. The currency pair reached the 1.1322 level, which covers the cleft of 6 June and represents around 61.8% abolish inheritance from 1.1617 to 1.0909. From a technical point of view, the road to higher levels has been opened. In this case, we should see a correction of Tuesday's gains and then the game should include the demand side. (Support is located at 1.1263 (50% fibo), 1.1245 (downtrend line) and 1,1217-33).
After breaking the level of 1.1322, the next target seems to be the level of 1.1346, which can be a strong barrier to demand. (The model range of motion correction downward from the level of 1,1617-1,0909). It was therefore to be expected at this level, attacking the supply side. While overcoming resistance will signal that we are heading towards 1.1427 and 1,1449-60. At the moment the market sentiment favors a common currency.
Alternative variant involves breaking the support at 1,1217-33. In this case, you must reckon with further declines towards 1,1166-91.
In connection with empty calendar in macroeconomic major fluctuations to be expected in the evening, when investors learn about the FOMC protocol.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 16/08/16The technical situation on the main currency pair has not changed. At the moment a small advantage is the demand side, which is trying to once again lead to break the resistance level at 1.12. However, increases are limited, as the market awaits Tuesday's readings, which may be the signal for a stronger movement.
If you receive readings support the European currency, the demand side will receive strong support, which may result in attack and breaking resistance at 1,1217-33. In this variant will to break with the top side of the trend of several weeks, which will open the way towards 1.1427. Previously, however, the demand will have to face, with a line drawn downward from the top of the 3 May (1.1617). Resistance is located in the vicinity of 1.1250.
Otherwise, you must reckon with the acquisition of the initiative before the supply, which is supported by the data will lead to declines. The first resistance will be the last local minima at 1,1054-66, whose defeat will pave the way toward support level 1,1092-1,1125.
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (25.07-29.07).Last week brought weakening of the euro against the dollar, which was consistent with my assumptions, which I presented in the last daily reports. On Friday also they came to break the bottom of the nearly three-week trend side. Overcoming support at 1,0972-81 may suggest a further weakening of the euro against the dollar, towards the level of 1.0909 (at least after the announcement of a referendum). At this level (1.0909), I expect to activate the demand side, which will certainly defend that level. Any break 1.0909 support will indicate the weakness of the euro, which further confirms the downward trend. In this case, the aim in the longer term may be last year's lows.
EUR/USDImportant resistance zone 1,1100-30 . In my opinion, a good place to open short positions . The first objective 1.1029 . The second objective 1.0909
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 30.06 / 16The technical situation on eurodolarze has not changed much from yesterday's session. Demand side all the time trying to correct previous declines, but from what we see upward movements are limited. The demand side was able to lead to the abolition of the 38.2% fibo recent decline from 1.1427 - 1.0909. Wednesday's breakout above 1.1111 may suggest that the correction has not finished yet and perhaps demand side will take yet another attempt to attack towards 1,1168-88. Previously, however, the demand will have to overcome the resistance level 1.1130. After completion of the correction expect further declines towards the recent lows. Higher price levels will be a great opportunity to play for a short time.
In the case of taking the initiative by the supply side, the Eurodollar will head towards 1.1050 and 1.1013. Overcoming these levels will open the way toward 1.0971 and 1.0909. In the version of the more pessimistic, Eurodollar market may experience decreases even in the area 1,0810-1,0825.
Fundamental situation is not conducive to a common currency and hard in this case to assume that the current correction can turn into a greater movement upward. European currency not only pregnant but Brexit on the horizon, we also have a referendum in Italy, which applies to limit the political role of the Senate.
Analysis and forecasts for the pair EUR / USD on 28/06 / 16- BreFundamental analysis is not conducive at the moment increases (Brexit, independence of Scotland), but we can not rule them out. On the markets, the situation begins to stabilize and demand side is trying to take the initiative. At the moment the currency pair is oscillating in the zone of resistance 1,1058-80, which correspond to minima of 14 and 15 March. Overcoming this zone will demand, to attack towards Tuesday's high of 1.1111. A further aim of the camp, the bulls will be the resistance zone extending between 1,1168-88 (38.2% sequentially and 50% fibo recent declines and the peak of 24 June). Especially this zone should be a strong barrier to demand.
Considering the uncertainty that surrounds markets at the moment, it's hard to predict whether any upward movement is the beginning of bigger increases, or merely a correction in further declines. If I had to define clearly personally I assume that it is a corrective movement, after which we will see another wave of declines. Accordingly, the levels of 1,1168-88 may be a great opportunity to play for a short time. Whereas the puncture resistance of these will open the way towards recent highs. However, this option now seems unrealistic.
In the case of the next wave of declines, we will return towards the last low of 1.1013 and then the supply will head towards 1.0971 and 1.0909. In a more pessimistic version of the Eurodollar market may experience decreases even in the area 1,0810-1,0825.
In my opinion, a variant of the local correction and further declines seem to be more likely.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 27.06 / 16 BrexitAt the moment the currency pair is moving around the level of 1.1022, which is around 23.6% fibo abolition of inheritance from 1.1427 - 1.0909. Given the recent dramatic declines and no new minimum (during the Monday session), we can assume that the demand side begins to catch his breath. It may suggest the development of local correction toward resistance 1,1058-80. Further targets will be the levels of 1.11 and 1,1168-88 (38.2% sequentially and 50% fibo recent declines and the peak of 24 June). Especially this zone should be a strong barrier to demand. The single currency is under pressure and higher price levels can be a great opportunity to open short positions.
Given the large nervousness and uncertainty that prevails at the moment, we may see further declines without prior correction. In this variant, the supply will head towards 1.0971 and 1.0909. In a more pessimistic version of the Eurodollar market may experience decreases even in the area 1,0810-1,0825.
In my opinion, a variant of the local correction and further declines seem to be more likely.
Analysis for EUR / USD - Weekly review (27.06-01.07) - BrexitBaseline scenario remains variant downward. In this case, the supply should lead to decreases in the direction of 1,1058-80 and 1.1015. Further support will be Friday's low of 1.0909 or even 1,0810-1,0825.
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 24.06 / 16Moving on to the analysis of the Eurodollar, we can assume that today's growth should continue in the coming hours. At 23:05 we met YouGov poll, which points to win supporters to remain in the EU (52% -48%). In my opinion, a wave of optimism and runoff further positive information, we should see increases in the resistance level at 1,1495-1,1530 (the upper limit of the local channel growth and peaks at the beginning of May). At these levels, I would expect some correction, which could bear part of the recent increases. After completing the adjustment will be possible further increases toward year's high of 1.1617.
Strong support is the level of 1,1295-1,1330 and it does not seem that during Friday's session could be undermined. Variant further increases over the next session, is currently the base variant.
