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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD at the 21.06 / 16Fundamentals at the moment, supports the single currency, but keep in mind that the next polls can change the image on the Eurodollar market. From a technical point of view, the currency pair hovers just above the level of 1.1295, which last week was a strong resistance. If the demand side thoughts on further increases, the level should be defended. In this variant, we can count on further increases toward the maximum of Monday's 1.1383 and 1.1416 (peak of 9 June). In the longer term (several weeks) can be growth toward year's high of 1.1617. Otherwise, breaking 1.1295 level (last maxima) and 1.1278 (Friday shutdown) may indicate that the increases were temporary and return towards the last minima. The first supply will head towards 1,1213-35. Further props will be levels 1.1189 and 1.1144. Considering the confusion of the referendum in the UK and hence a large oscillation, which can foster this, you should be careful when making investment decisions.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (20.06-24.06)A currency pair is currently just below the important resistance zone of 1,1295-1,1330 can be seen especially on the daily chart. On the impact of the Eurodollar they will certainly have another opinion polls, but from a technical point of view, to overcome the resistance to open the way towards the last peak at 1.1416. Bearing in mind the pressures associated with the referendum seems to be more likely further weakening of the single currency and consequently, a return towards the recent lows 1.1189 and 1,1131-44. In the event of further declines in supply can put towards 1,1058-80. The level of defense for the scenario of succession is above the level of 1.1330. Regardless of the situation that prevails in the British Isles, we may agree that the single currency is holding up well. To sum up my thoughts, we can conclude that in the first part of the week the single currency may lose (if the date of the referendum will not be changed) and then to the dollar should be the reverse (back to concerns about the lack of further interest rate hikes in the US). Version alternative involves changing the date of the referendum (postpone), which will support the common currency. This option will allow the demand side, on the attack on the resistance zone of 1,1295-1,1330.
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 06/16/16The situation on the eurodolarze changes as the proverbial kaleidoscope. Despite the break on Tuesday Zone support levels and reached a low of 1.1189, falls on the main currency pair not continued. On Wednesday we witnessed the execution of the alternative scenario, which assumed a return to the vicinity 1,1300-30 level. The demand side has received support in the form of a pigeon's FOMC statement. (Demand led to the abolition of the last half of the decline from 1.1416). At the moment Eurodollar hovering around 1.1265, and the very fact of maintaining the exchange rate above 1.1235 might suggest an attack on the last maxima. In this case, demand is a target for area 1,1300-30 and subsequently, the resistance level of 1.1362 and 1.1416. Considering the uncertainty before the referendum in the UK, it seems that the demand side, could take full advantage of his chance. The single currency is under pressure and in my opinion the higher price levels, can be a great opportunity to open short positions. Is today's killing up will be short-lived, it will show the next hours. (At the moment, the current upward movement can be seen as a correction of recent decline). Signal pro-trend will be back towards the recent support levels at 1,1213-35. While breaking the 1.1189 level will confirm that the actual killing up was only a correction of the recent declines. In this case, we will go towards support at 1.1144 and 1,1058-80.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 14/06/16The currency pair has corrected some recent declines (1,1417-1,1235) and reached the level of 1.1303. Strong resistance remains the 1.1330 level (minima of 6 June). If the demand side will lead to a break in / at resistance will be open way toward 1.1376 and 1.1417. The signal for a stronger upward movement may be weaker data from the US. Otherwise, the supply will head towards a strong zone of support levels located on levels 1,1216-35. It should be borne in mind that the most important information for the euro-dollar, will flow only on Wednesday, when it will be announced the statement after a meeting of the Federal Reserve.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 05/27/16Movement of growth that occurred in the last two days we can qualify as a correction of the recent declines. Currency pair found support at 1.1129 while strong resistance level remains 1,1213-16. (For the record, let me add that these are minimums of 23 and 25 April. In addition, this level coincides with the 38.2% fibo increases from 0.8231 to 1.6038 level, which at the moment is quite a barrier to demand). This does not mean, however, that demand will not try to move out attack towards resistance 1.1216, which break open the way towards 1.1240 level. However, keeping in mind the data from the US, I do not think that either the party wanted to take the initiative before the hour 14:30. Due to the above signal for the supply or demand, should be read GDP. Summing up for a better reading supply will direct Eurodollar towards recent lows 1.1144 and 1.1129. In contrast, worse reading may be a pretext to develop a stronger correction towards 1.1280. In the longer term, after completion of the correction, I expect further declines towards the recent lows.
by RobertPapon
5
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 24/05/16The technical situation on the main currency pair has not changed. The preferred option remains further declines towards lower price levels. Until then we may be witnessing the development of movement correction toward resistance 1,1256-82. Support for this view may be better readings from Germany. It should however be noted that after adjustment, the supply should push-dollar towards the minimum in the last level 1,1179-87. Accordingly, the level of around 1.1280 seem to be an ideal place to open short position. Taking into account the possible interest rate hike in June, we can also assume that further declines will take place without the mentioned correction. This in turn means that the breaking of the last low of 1.1179 will open the way towards support at 1.1144 and 1,1058-80. Strong support in this case are robust readings from the US economy.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (23.05-27.05)Currency pair after the recent declines and reaching the level of 1.1179 is currently in revision. Demand side should lead to increases in the vicinity of 1,1256-82 (the upper limit of the downward channel, and a minimum of 13 May, which coincides with the 23.6 fibo of 1.1617 drops to the level of 1.1179). For overcoming w / w resistance demand may even reach the vicinity of 1.1345. After the implementation of the motion correction expect declines towards the 1.1216 level and 1.1179. Breaking the support levels open the way towards much lower price levels. The next levels are 1.1144 props and 1,1058-80. At the moment, expectations of a possible rate hike in June will support the US currency. Therefore, the adjustment may be local in nature or can be witnessed further declines without the said correction. A variant of the base seems to be a further weakening of the euro against the dollar. The threat for the said variant will be worse readings from the US, which negate the increase in June.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecast of EUR / USDThe technical situation currently favors further declines. Currency pair ended the week around 1.1313 (76.4% fib increases of 1,1216-1,1617), and considering the recent declines, it is possible to undo the correction 1,1336-59 area. After completing local correction, the supply side should push the exchange rate discussed currency pair towards 1.1240 and 1.1216. It is also possible variant of further declines without any correction. In this case, the start of the week we will start further declines towards 1.1216.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 13/05/16The technical situation Eurodollar remains unchanged. All the time we are in consolidation between the strong resistance at 1.1465 and support at 1.1376. The market is waiting for the moment of issue. It is likely that the signal for further direction will be Friday's data. Accordingly I repeat, what is presented in previous reports: "Overcoming support paves the way towards lower price levels 1,1336-42 (peaks of 17 and 18 March). In contrast, defeat in / at support levels will lead to a return to the recent lows at around the level of 1,1213-18. If you happen to break the mountain above the level of 1.1465, in this case the demand will head toward this year's peaks. Along the way, the demand side encounters resistance levels are located at 1.1495 and 1.1536. "
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (02.05-06.05)Currency pair after the recent rally came to a very strong resistance zone, which was a strong barrier in the first two weeks of April. Eurodollar noted Friday's high of 1.1461, which coincides with the peak of 18 September. The demand side is facing a difficult task to force the resistance extending between 1,1465-95, whose defeat opens the way toward 1.1621 and 1.1714 (highs from the end of August). At the moment, support for variant growth is a minimum of 22 April, at the level of 1.1216. (It is worth reminding that the support referred coincides with the 38.2% fibo abolition increases from 0.8231 to 1.6038). Certainly it can be said that the strong resistance zone 1,1465-95 will be defended by the supply side. In my opinion, an attempt to break through these levels with the march should not go, which should enable the supply side. If my suspicions are correct it in the next session, we should see some form of correction of recent increases, and another attack on the mentioned resistance zone. Any adjustment can refer Eurodollar rate in the vicinity of the support levels 1.1400 and 1.1367 (38.2% fibo recent increases and the lower limit of the upward channel on the chart with the interval 1D). Overcoming resistance level at 1.1495 will be crucial for the euro-dollar in the medium term.
by RobertPapon
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Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 05/04/16Today's growth and the strong decline below the opening price may suggest a long-awaited correction. For this turn of events is also supported by the daily candle, which may indicate a trend reversal. Another aspect that suggests a strengthening of the dollar in the near future, is its seasonality. May is a particularly good month for the US currency, which strengthened in the past to most currencies. It was no different in previous years, the main currency pair. Over the past 10 years, the dollar strengthened against the euro in May, up to 8-fold. The last argument, which supports the camp bears is the fact that after the recent rally almost six months, the correction in May would be a natural thing. If my suspicions are correct, then in the near future we should see declines towards lower price levels. The closest props are the peaks of mid-October at 1,1489-95. After their break open the way towards the next support levels are located at levels 1,1437-65 (peaks in the first half of April). Further support will be around the level of 1.1416 and 1.1376.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 03/05/16Bulls showed today incredible determination and growth took place without prior local correction. This is already the sixth day of gains in a row and it does not seem that the demand side, was able to keep the pace of growth without local correction. A currency pair is heavily subscribed, while the RSI above 70, increases the risk of progress in further increases. With every moment of chances for initiating the supply side correction. Therefore, we should see counterattack supply side, which can lead to declines toward support levels 1.1411 and 1,1458-61. Then, after the correction should be the next wave of growth towards recent highs 1.1495 and 1.1533. If they overcome the demand side will have an open path towards higher price levels. In turn will be the levels 1.1600, followed by 1.1621 and 1.1714 (highs from the end of August). Alternate version assumes further increases without the mentioned correction, but at the moment it seems to be unlikely.
Short
by RobertPapon
2
EUR/USD Currency pair after reflection at the beginning of the week from the support level 1.1216, still moves in a local channel growth. Despite today's peak at 1.1361 we can be seen that the market is struggling with a cross-resistance level at 1.1343, which may ultimately be a strong support for the supply side. Thursday's GDP reading may be the signal for a strong movement in either party. In this instance increases are possible? If the reading turns out well below market expectations, the demand should have no problems with wywindowaniem course around 1,1385-96 level and 1.1465. In my opinion, the GDP reading should not be blatantly weak which should support the supply side. This will mean that we are returning to the inheritance and the exchange rate will move towards the recent lows at 1.1240 levels and 1,1213-18. Variant downward seems to be more likely.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (18.04-22.04)Currency pair after a recent decline from 1.1465 to 1.1234 level currently located in a local correction. From a technical point of view, the correction should not exceed the level of 1,1322-25. (The lower limit of consolidation, which coincides with the 38.2% fibo recent declines). Then the supply side should once again take the initiative and head towards the last lows at 1,1234-40. After breaking support supply may lead to a test of support at 1,1213-18 (maximum of March 10, which coincides with the 61.8% fibo increases from 0.8231 to 1.6038). The next support level is 1.1144. If there is a deepening decline further props will 1,1058-80 area. The daily RSI indicates further declines. Alternative variant involves breaking the resistance level at 1,1322-25 (euro-dollar exchange rate will return to the interior of consolidation).
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 14/04/16Negative divergence indicator of weakening uptrend proved to be prophetic. The supply side has used the above signal and at present, the currency pair is in the adjustment increases with the level of 1,1144-1,1465. Declines stopped at around the level 1.1266 (61.8% fibo recent increases). Given the strong oversold, we can assume that the demand SHOULD lead to a correction of growth in the area of resistance at 1,1325-43. (Lower limit of consolidation, which coincides with the 38.2% decline from the abolition of 1,1465-1,1273). Then the supply side should lead to deeper declines. Further props levels are 1.1240 (peak March 16) and 1,1215-18 (peaks of March 10). It should, however, keep in mind Thursday's readings, which can change the image discussed currency pair. Alternative version of a return to the interior of consolidation 1,1325-1,1465.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review ( 11.04-15.04 )Moving on to the analysis of the Eurodollar, it is worth quoting a curiosity about the strength of the dollar in April in previous years. It turns out that April is one of the worst months for the dollar. For example, we may use the last 5 years (EUR / USD), when the euro strengthened against the dollar in April fourfold. The exception here is April 2012. Looking more broadly at the foreign exchange market should be stressed here that the dollar lost the most in April against commodity currencies. A currency pair is currently at 1.1402 horizontal below the important resistance zone, which I wrote about several times in my daily reports. The demand side is certainly not yet said its last word and according to my preferred option is an attack on the last peaks at levels 1,1437-56, whose defeat opens the way towards the resistance level at 1.1495. Whereas the density of the resistance to be expected of a strong attacking the supply side to w / the resistance. Therefore, to overcome the march level of 1.1495 seems unlikely, which could be a pretext to develop a larger correction. (Certainly, many investors have set short order around 1,1456-95). Support for the upward trend is the zone between 1,1325-43 levels (peak of 17 March). Given the current monetary policy of central banks, the ECB and the Fed, we can say with certainty that the differences begin to fade. This in turn should support the common currency, which in the longer term should strengthen against the dollar. With this in mind we can risk saying that eventually comes to breaking the 1.1495 level. In this case, the path towards the 1.1885 level seems to be open.
Long
by RobertPapon
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (04.04-08.04)The currency pair reached a very strong resistance zone, located between 1,1437-95. Due to the very strong buying and the high density of these resistances, the beginning of the coming week should pass under the sign of the correction weakening of the euro against the dollar. Therefore, you must reckon with the defense of the above-mentioned resistance by the supply side and the start of a correction, which would bear part of the gains from 1.1144 to 1.1437. The first props should be 1,1367-76 levels (peak of 11 February, which coincides with the 23.6% fibo recent increases). Further props will zone levels between 1,1325-43 (peak on March 17, which covers the 38.2% fibo recent increases). If the supply side will lead to a deepening of the correction, account must be taken back to around the level of 1.1290. After completion of the correction expect an attack on the last peaks of the level of 1.1495, inclusive. I would like to emphasize that around 1.15 formed a strong barrier to the demand side in the last several months, which is presented on the chart with the interval 1M. Any defeat last level opens the way towards 1.1885.
Short
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 03/30/16Today's strong growth over the important resistance located in the area of 1,1220-45, open the demand side of the road to higher price levels. The next targets for the demand should be the levels of 1.1343 (peak on March 17) and 1.1373 (maximum of 11 of February). In the longer term I would expect growth toward resistance levels are located at 1,1441-60 (peaks of 17 and 18 September) and 1.1495. In my opinion, further increases may be preceded by a correction, which should not exceed the level of 1.1245. Then the demand side should move out another attack towards resistance 1.1303 and 1.1343.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD 03/29/16On Tuesday after the holiday weekend on the parquet back investors from Europe, which should revive the currency market during the early hours of the morning. Relevant data will appear only in the second half of the day, when we will know the consumer confidence index by. Conference Board. Investors will also pay attention to statements by members of the FED (Williams, Dudley). Particularly noteworthy occurrence Fed president Janet Yellen. According to the technical analysis, the demand side of the defense support at 1.1144 took the initiative and led counterattack, which led back to the 1.12 level. Nearby hours should show to what extent become the demand side. If demand is thinking about further increases this should lead to a continuation of support at 1,1187-89, which will put the attack on the zone 1,1220-45. This area is an important resistance (peak after the FOMC meeting) and on the outcome, will determine the further movement of the currency pair discussed. Moving on to the crux of the matter, I would like to point out that overcoming these resistances opens the way to higher price levels. The next resistance levels are 1.1285 and 1.1343. | In the longer term, the level of 1.1495 would be in the range of demand. In the event, however, the demand side failed to break through w / the resistance, a return toward the major support at 1.1144 seems to be inevitable. Any of his fracture, can lead to a stronger correction towards 1.1083 and 1.1021 levels.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (28.03-01.04)The situation on the eurodolarze has not changed and is consistent with what I presented in previous reports. For the record, let me add that the currency pair is in a correction of recent increases. Due to the proximity of support at 1.1144 (38.2% fibo abolition), the voice has come the demand side, which is trying to move toward the counterattack last local peaks. Therefore, it should be noted that in the next hours, the demand side should make another attempt to attack the local resistance 1,1187-1,1189. From the results of the success will depend on the future direction of the currency pair discussed. Therefore, it should be noted that if demand beats w / the resistance in this case, should be directed towards localized resistance levels 1,1220-1,1245. Any breaking them confirm that the fall from 1.1343 to 1.1144 was a technical correction and return to the further growth. The objectives will be the levels 1.1285, 1.1343 and 1.1495. Otherwise, if the demand will have difficulty overcoming resistance levels 1.1189 and 1,1220-45, account must be taken back towards support at 1.1144. The demand side will certainly defend support, because its defeat could lead to further depreciation towards 1.1083 and 1.1021 levels. Particularly test this latter level would worry about, because this level corresponds to the 61.8% fibo abolition of recent increases and adjustments not often tolerate higher values.
by RobertPapon