Get started

Robertpapon

Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (13.07-17.07.)Summary of the week: The beginning of the week began with the strong appreciation of the dollar, but the euro during the week worked out losses and ended the week up by 1.1% against the dollar. Quite unexpectedly after Sunday's referendum, when Greeks voted to NO, the Greek Government led by Aleksi Tsipras, issued on Wednesday evening a new project of reform and savings. The market took this information with satisfaction that automatically led to the strengthening of the euro. It is also worth noting Wednesday's FOMC meeting notes from which were balanced. Fed assumes the possibility of interest rate hikes later this year, but must be met appropriate assumptions: an improvement in the labor market and solid and good readings from the US economy. Market is read as an offset increases over time, which further supported the European currency. The economic calendar for next week: In the coming week will dominate all the time, the situation around Greece and the mood around the new aid plan for Greece. Sentences are divided politicians Eurogroup and hard at the moment to assess whether a possible rescue plan will cure the problems of the Greek. If you are unsure dollar may gain. Monday : lack of relevant data, it is planned Eurogroup meeting; Tuesday : ZEW economic mood in Germany and US retail sales and import price index and US export Wednesday: PPI from the US and the statement of the President of the Fed, Janet Yellen, also will be announced production rate for NY and beige book; Thursday: get readings on the CPI in the Eurozone, then the ECB will decide on interest rates. It is noteworthy that the President of the ECB press conference. Mario Draghi will refer to the recent situation in Greece. On the other side of the ocean will be announced industrial indicator of Philadelphia; Friday: The most important data will flow from the US: building permit, the base CPI and Michigan consumer sentiment index. Forecast for Monday: Last week there was to break up with the downward channel in the vicinity of 1.1040. Support for the growth was the improvement in sentiment around Greece. The currency pair reached a strong resistance level at 1,1210-1,1230 then came to realize profits. Assuming that soon we will see the final and positive resolution of the case Greek, there is a fairly high probability of further gains in the pair EUR / USD. Technical analysis allows for correction around 1.1080 and then we should see an attack on the 1.1210 level. If it comes to overcome this level will open the way for further increases. In this case, the goal will be the last maxima at 1.1456. Variant growth appears to be a variant, which has a greater chance of success. After reaching there should be a decline. In an alternative version comes to inheritance after piercing the 1.1080 level which could trigger a resumption of the recent low of 1,0916-54. Keep in mind that at the moment on a pair EUR / USD is very high variability caused by mixed information on Greece and this should be taken into account in its strategy.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 08.07.15Summary Tuesday: According to the forecast, today there was a decline on the EUR / USD pair. At the moment not established anything new on aid or bankruptcy of Greece. The whole situation introduces nervousness on the markets thus escape towards safe currencies such as the US dollar. Today there was a break important support at 1.10 and then the market had settled zone support levels at 1,0954-70. Minimum recorded much lower at 1.0916 which confirms the weakness of the single currency. A few words about Greece: At today's meeting of the Eurogroup Greeks did not put forward any new proposals. Germany does not see opportunities for further dialogue, without decisive changes in the new program improvement. The situation is difficult and can lead to Greece's exit from the Euro zone. In the event of submission of the EU towards Greece next in line for the money of the European Union will be Spain and Portugal. The economic calendar for Wednesday: 20:00 minutes of the FOMC meeting; Tomorrow's calendar is empty but the market certainly will keep track of the records of the FOMC meeting. At the moment, we know that the data from the US, which we received recently were good but not sensational. This could cool the enthusiasm of members Fed to raise interest rates in the autumn in the US. At the moment, the market expects a rate hike at the end of the year or the beginning of 2016 years. If we receive information about the possibility of introducing higher rates earlier this dollar strengthened. The forecast for Wednesday: Today, it dominated the world market supply, which broke the important support at 1.10 and then the market had settled zone support levels at 1,0954-70. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis supports the continued declines. In my opinion, the road was opened towards the levels of 1 June and 27 May. The supply should maintain the strength and lead to declines in the direction of today's low of 1.0916. The next targets will be the levels 1,0880-90 and 1.0820. (An important resistance is the level of 1,0954-70 and 1.10. (In this area should outweigh the supply side, a large part of the players will certainly be here to open short positions)). The downward variant is in my opinion the preferred option but be careful because the rumors or the fixing of aid for Greece may be associated with strong movements. Already, at present volatility is at 90% and this should be taken into account in its strategy. Note: Please note that in case of positive news on Greece comes to strong increases but it is unlikely at the moment. In this case, the targets should be the level of 1.1120 and a resistance zone 1,12-1,1240 If the analysis you liked please click thank you.
by RobertPapon
Analysis and forecasts for EUR / USD on 07.07.15Summary Monday: The Sunday session has opened up a gap trend (1.0995) as a consequence of information that sprang from Greece. Minimum seen at 1.0970, and like a week earlier demand led to the closure gap. Maximum dropped out at the level of 1.1096. Currently, the currency pair is trading at 1.1050 indicates weakness in demand. A few words about Greece and the referendum The greater part of the Greeks (61.31%) voted for NO, which is tantamount to a rejection of its self-imposed reforms of the European Union. The result is a surprise for the markets but above all a great shock for the Germans, who for the last few years quite firmly dictate their conditions to the Greeks. "Domino" is package elaboration and nobody currently knows what will be the effects of decisions Greeks. At the beginning resigned Greek Finance Minister - Janis Warufakis. Negotiations will have to start from scratch and now we know that 85% of Germans are opposed to aid. The results of the referendum is support for the current work of the Greek government but as you know, none of the parties will not forgive. The consequence of such actions could be a Greek exit from the euro zone or even leave the European Union. Economic Calendar for Tuesday: 8:00 EUR German Industrial Production 12:00 EUR Euro Group meeting 14:30 USD Trade Balance 18:00 EUR Euro zone leaders meeting Forecast for Tuesday: The currency pair is still under pressure and tomorrow's market can ignore the readings. Tomorrow, another meeting of the Eurogroup on Greece and the attempt to find a compromise between Greece and the EU. Technically looking at the situation in the EUR / USD pair, we can conclude that the euro is weak and the strong resistance level is 1,11-1,1120. It was not until his defeat may lead to some significant increases in the levels of around 1.12 and 1.1240. Assuming that the Greek issue is not resolved, the more likely it seems the next move downwards. In this case, there should be a break through support at 1.10. Then the next goal will be to overcome aids zone between 1,0954-1,097. If the last minimums are defeated it will open the way to further declines in around 1.0820. The downward variant seems more likely but keep in mind that all rumors about Greece may introduce confusion in the market. On the currency pair there is a large variation at the level of 77%, therefore, be careful and take this into account in its strategy.
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (06.07-10.07.)Summary of last week: The currency pair opened one of the largest gaps downward in recent years. This was the result of uncertainty related to Greece. Markets remained constantly on the alert which led to strong fluctuations and even incomprehensible movements. After opening the trend we saw the bottom of the 1.0954 level and then, without major problems has led to the demand side closing the gap and establish a high of 1.1279. At the end of the week the euro gained slightly against the dollar by 0.24%. It is worth noting, however, that despite the many negative reports that appeared last week we saw the strong depreciation of the EUR / USD, which may confirm that the market still believes in the positive outcome of the Greek case. A few words about Greece: In the last week of negotiations on the EU - Greece has been interrupted as a result of disagreement. The situation looks much complicated, because both sides do not want to give way. Greece has not repaid on June 30 creditors more than 1.6 billion euros. At the moment, we are waiting for the results of the referendum, which will indicate the Greek journey. If the Greeks will talk in a referendum in favor of continuing austerity, the European Union will help Greece and allocate billions more in aid to the country. If the Greeks say NO, in this case may lead to a crisis on the Brussels - Athens. It is difficult to predict what will be the consequence but one possibility is assumed to return to its own currency by Greece. Whatever they see the election results Greeks are in a very difficult position. The latest survey results: Poll GPO Mega TV - Yes: 44.1% vs. NO: 43.7% Bloomberg / University of Macedonia - Yes: 43% vs. NO: 42.5% Ethnos / ALCO - Yes: 44.8% vs. NO: 43.4% As you can see, each survey is close to the margin of error. Economic calendar next week. The coming week is full of many important events, but they may remain in the shadows of the situation in Greece. Monday: The contract factories in Germany and the PMI and the ISM index in the US; Tuesday: Industrial production in Germany and the US trade balance; Wednesday: Minutes of FOMC meeting; Thursday: German trade balance and declared to the ascendant unemployed in the US; Friday: no important data Forecast for Monday: Because of the referendum in Greece, do not take into account a purely technical analysis. It is worthwhile to consider what the consequences might bring any results. The market assumes positive outcome of the referendum, which will start next tranche of aid to Greece. In this connection, it should gain the euro. Very likely it is that we see today at the opening of the next gap. If the Greeks say yes in this case we can see the euphoria and gains in the EUR / USD pair. The objectives should be 1,1150-70 zone and 1.12 and 1.1240. It was quite possible that as a result of market euphoria will seek to recent highs at 1.1279 and in case of their breakthrough opens the way to levels around 1.1456. If the Greeks say no, then we should see the euro Sale, as in this case, the Greek government will get strong support and emphatically reject any imposed reform. Such a situation will introduce nervousness in the markets and discussed the course of steam should act in the first place towards 1.0954 or 1.10 and lows from last week. One should expect a strong sell-off and a deterioration lows as well as the large gap downward. At the moment it is hard to determine how the currency pair will behave tomorrow, and therefore I would suggest to stay out of the market until clarification of the situation. If my analysis interested in, please click thank you
by RobertPapon
2
Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (29.06-03.07.)Summary of the week: In the last week the single currency was weaker against the dollar by 1.35%. To a large extent this is due to the uncertainty around Greece and the future of the whole euro area. The dollar also was supported by good data from the US, which reassures the market in the belief that the first increases in interest rates will fall. In the coming week, investors will focus their attention on Greece, which must not only find a compromise in the negotiations but also to repay 1.6 billion to its creditors until 30 June. At the moment the situation is not optimistic, because on Saturday the negotiations were broken off, and the Prime Minister of Greece proposed a referendum on July 5, in which Greek citizens have to make a decision on acceptance or rejection of solutions imposed by the European Union. In case of a negative outcome to be expected from the bankruptcy of Greece, and in this case you can do without panic in the markets. Do not forget to macroeconomic data, which will be announced next week. It should be noted: On Monday we will know the data on inflation in Germany and Spain. From the United States we will get data on real estate sales; On Tuesday we will know fairly important data on unemployment change in Germany and the CPI for the Euro zone. At the end of the day we will know the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board On Wednesday we will know the PMI for the euro area countries, while the US will flow data on non-farm employment change in the ADP and ISM index for the industry. On Thursday it will be published minutes of the meeting of the ECB and important US data on unemployment and changes in nonfarm employment. On Friday we will know the PMI for the euro area countries as well as data on sales in the Euro zone. The forecast for Monday. The currency pair is still under pressure and the market will be waited for the end of the talks between Greece and the EU. At the moment, we can expect nervousness, which will surely be conducive to the dollar. The most important economic data tomorrow will flow from the US. Looking purely technically on a currency pair, we can say that in the last week there was a clearance of consolidation and break down the level of 1.1170. Accordingly, the currency pair after breaking down should turn around in 1,1170-75 and then supply should take the initiative and lead once again to test recent support levels at 1,1129-34 levels. Overcoming aids zone will pave the way for lower price levels. The first objective should be the next support level of 1.1080 or lows of June 5-7. In an alternative version (poor US data and positive news on Greece) should lead once again to test levels of 1,12-1,1240. The downward variant seems to be the preferred option but should be vigilant, because any rumors on Greece could lead to severe mood swings, which subsequently translate into a currency pair. Uptade: The currency pair traded before the opening of the market is already after 1.10. The Sunday session opens downward gap!
by RobertPapon