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BTC Short Trade Opportunity and SetupBYBIT:BTCUSDT.P / BYBIT:BTCUSDT / CRYPTO:BTCUSD Bitcoin/BTCUSD has recently hit the resistance level of a pattern that has generally held true since mid March 24 (4 preceding resistance and support confirmations). Furthermore, it has started a return downward move following on from a 3 day filter for confirmation of the resistance level (an example of how a 3/5 day filter is an important tool for crypto trading). Additionally: The RSI resistance level of 70 has been recently reached and the RSI is trending downwards - a usually statistically significant indicator The downward return move is supported by reasonable (although not enough on it's own) volume A 3 bar pattern (downward move, pause, further downward move for confirmation) A rate of change approaching and trending negative A MACD also approaching negative It's always important to assess the risk that might prove the thesis wrong. And they are: Today's candlestick pattern is close to a dragonfly, i.e. there might be a return upwards move imminent (although this is unlikely to constitute a beginning of a move beyond the previous high as an actual dragonfly candlestick is at the end of a downtrend) The MACD is trending down but has not actually turned negative yet, i.e. it is a bit early to say this indicator is stating a downward trend The ROC hasn't turned negative yet either (but is trending downwards for sure) This all leads to the following conclusion: For those with a high enough risk appetite (and usually crypto traders are those with the highest :-)) this is a good entry point for a short trade. Using the (admittedly early but still reasonable) trend for the past three days to determine the final take profit point of 45500 (blue arrow) by approx. 19 Nov 24, the following can be set as a guide for a trade: Entry: Now or latest tomorrow in case today's candlestick is an indicator of a minor move upwards SL: $70,500 TP1: $63,450 - based on the first potential moving average being a resistance (200 MA) TP2: $60,500 - based on the previous move's consistent (and twice confirmed) low TP3: $54,500 -based on a previous historic low (i.e. psychologically important price point) which also acts as a confirmation of support to a previous move TP4: $45,500 - The approximate price point of an estimated downward trend Exit date (independent of TP level): 19 Nov 24 NOTE: the 19 Nov date here is important. It is the forecasted date by which the current downward price trend would linearly reach the support level. This date would be used as a checkpoint to exit the entire trade to safeguard against the normal, usually dramatic and beyond rational calculation price gyrations of crypto.
Short
by slip_stream
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COINBASE:FXUSDLong
by CryptocurrencyBlot
Awaiting doge breakout of channelDoge is in a declining parallel channel. Awaiting breakout of the channel, and clearing the moving averages will setup a long to 0.96, then 0.108 and 0.146 resistance levels. The rsi is also supportive of such a move with it currently trending upwards and not in an overbought position. The MACD is also beginning to trend upwards with the MACD line crossing over and signalling a upward trend. The rate of change ROC is also trending upwards but a note of caution: a pullback in the roc and then the breakout would result in a stronger indicator signal. Volume is also starting to trend upwards over the past week compared to the preceding period of 27 Feb to 08 Mar, this signalling a move is impending which will have market support (and is more likely to form a trend as opposed to just a temporary spoke or bull trap). İf taking a long position, depending on risk appetite, putting in a filter of 3 days from the breakout to avoid a bull trap might be advisable. Alternatively, rejection of the upper boundary of the channel and/or moving averages will setup a downward mice to 0.69 then 0.67 and then to the bottom of the channel. Best approach is to await a decisive action and enter then with SLs based on chart structure.
by slip_stream
S&P vs Gold cycle ft. CPI ROCEvery 15 years, there seems to be an alternating shift either into gold, or away from gold. It's amazing that just charting the simple average of Gold vs S&P with no fancy modifications, we get such a clear picture. Of course, the price growth in the chart is just an indirect result of money supply growth, but these average trends tell us more of where the money is going and what to expect. Notice that the cycle of the trend in the chart didn't reverse in 2013. It's kind of alarming that the cycle was interrupted like that and it doesn't seem like that's what nature had intended. Nobody stayed in gold for very long and it was because they were essentially forced out by rising asset prices. Consider that the price of gold is lagging from the S&P by a factor of 2.13. That doesn't seem like very much, but if you were to measure the most extreme gaps historically, you'd get something like this: 2022: Gold lags S&P by 2.1x 2001: Gold lags S&P by 4.5x 1983: S&P lags Gold by 3.7x 1970: Gold lags S&P by 2.5x Given that the ratio of 2.5 in 1970 was a precursor for an inflationary environment, I don't think it's safe to assume we're safe with a factor of 2.1 in 2022. The breakout in the rate of change of inflation is also similar to 1970. I can't help but think that gold will eventually breakout price as a response to the recent money supply growth. The money supply grew by 40%, and the new money already rotated into assets, so at some point it becomes a tailwind to gold. As far as the predictions in the chart go, I'll give (a) maybe a 10% chance, and (b) a 90% chance. The reason I think (a) is unlikely is that I don't believe that the FED will be able to reduce its balance sheet while raising rates - without intervention and reversing course. It's hard to think that the FED could do one of these things at once, much less BOTH at the SAME TIME. Pure insanity. But this is what they will do, a complete reversal of their combined irresponsible choice of lowering rates and blowing up their balance sheet. Imagine flailing helplessly like a leaf in the wind, threatened by every little breeze. This is the FED. They don't have the courage to truly do the right thing and let malinvestment go bankrupt, let dead wood burn, and let the economy recover without intervention. They are at the behest of the large lenders of the banking system. This organization of the FED will always choose to serve the lender, not the borrower. Ultimately, the FED will do as little as possible, but just enough to get by and to not be abolished, for now. But if stocks fail in a similar way to 1930, I think they will eventually bail out stocks directly, which ultimately means more inflation. Even though they have the intention of leaving the market, they are destined to own all of it through drastic policy changes like this. This is kind of how I envision the government ownership of public companies starting: the peaking demographic of USA retirees who rely on their assets as savings will eventually need a bailout. They will do this because bankruptcy in large companies is absorbed into the money supply. Imagine if every time someone lost a leg or an arm, you lost part of your leg or arm. This is a symptom of design in a fragile system: if localized failure causes harm to everything in the system globally, this system is less prone to growth overall. Thus, pushing the bankruptcy of corporations onto the money supply means everything in the system is less likely to be healthy. Eventually, this globalized harm emanates to savings. At some point, you need to print money to not only satisfy spenders, ie. 2020, but you ALSO need to satisfy savers. Spenders are short-term oriented, savers are long-term oriented. Once you expand the money supply in order to satisfy both the long-term and short-term, the money essentially becomes useless. Money brings future wealth into the present. Without the backing of long-term savers, short-term spenders have no wealth to draw from when they spend a dollar. Without savers, you have no spenders. When the retiree demographic uses a majority of their savings, I think something peculiar will happen. The FED will print more dollars to make the economy seem stronger, which ultimately makes the economy and dollar weaker. Does that make any sense to you? This, in my opinion, will be the slow end of the dollar. As with any reserve currency, I think it will stick around longer than most think, though. Unfortunately the CPI doesn't go back very far. I'd be interested in seeing it go back a bit further, especially during the 1940s during when there was a bunch of deficit spending due to WWI, which I think is an environment similar to the deficit spending of 2020. It seems that the data does exist, just not in the FRED data. I know there's a way to plot custom data for a symbol in pine script, I'm just not sure exactly how to easily import a bunch of custom data samples into a script. Orange: 4 year SMA of SP:SPX Teal: 4 year SMA of FX_IDC:XAUUSD Green: 2 year ROC of FRED:CPIAUCSL If you've read this far, you deserve a medal at this point. Let me know what you think, and thanks for taking a look and reading my rants. Don't forget to hedge your bets ;)
SP:SPXLong
by fringe_chartist
2
How to use relative strength/weakness in Forex — GBPUSD exampleIchimoku makes identifying trends very easy, but it can be difficult to know when to enter a trend. This factor is often overlooked by newer traders, and it makes a significant difference to risk-adjusted returns. One of my favourite ways to identify when to enter a trend is to use the concept of relative strength or weakness. Put simply, relative strength or weakness is when you compare a security to an "index" and try to understand whether: The index is moving up, and your chosen security is moving up even faster = Relative Strength The index is moving down or ranging, and your chosen security is holding ground or moving slightly higher = Relative Strength The index is moving down, and your chosen security is moving down even faster = Relative Weakness The index is moving up or ranging, and your chosen security is holding ground or moving slightly lower = Relative Weakness This concept is incredibly important to understand. It can turn a B+ setup into an A+ setup. The question is then, how do you find relative strength? The really easy, beginner-friendly, way is to plot the "Rate of Change" (ROC). This is an included indicator in TradingView and simply tells you how quickly something is moving up or down. What you can do with ROC is to plot it against the symbol you're trading, and then plot it again against an index. An example of an index could be $DXY for the USD. This index would work for pairs like USDJPY, USDEUR, USDGBP, etc. Any pair where USD is the base. I found a perfect example of relative weakness on GBPUSD. I plotted the ROC for GBPUSD (green) and the ROC for all GBP pairs (red). Ichimoku already told me that GBPUSD was bearish and I was looking for an opportunity to go short. Notice, that when GBPUSD becomes weaker than all GBP pairs, there is almost no bullish pressure. If you short when there is relative weakness, your trade would have almost zero drawdown, and you would be in profit almost instantly. Yes, you could short anywhere on this chart and make money if you didn't have a stoploss, but this is not how to trade like a professional. If you tried to short this morning when there was no relative weakness, you would have to suffer through +37 pips of drawdown before it started moving down again. Could you take that? Could your risk manager take that if you were trading someone else's money? I encourage all traders to explore Relative Strength/Weakness. It is one of the most powerful concepts in trading, and as long as you have your "index" right, you can use this anywhere. Stocks, Forex, Crypto, Commoddities, etc.
Education
by ichimokucorner
4
Bitcoin by Rocket Bomb🚀💣Greetings! 😊Dear friends!♥️Welcome on Rocket Bomb's page🚀💣 Many, who follow my analyzes, are worried about Bitcoin's rise! That's absolutely normal: the price can't immediately collapse after my post (I'm still not Elon Musk 😆) But my opinion has not changed!🙅‍♀️ We're approaching a strong 50 - 51 k resistance. To overcome it, we need a lot of news noise! But if that's does not happen, and the market continue moving at its usual pace, I think, we can expect a decline in prices and entry into the triangle is unchangeable! Time will tell us😉 How are You? Are You still in short or return into long? 🧐 Or You just holder? 🤣 I'm always glad to see you in my comments for discussion😊 Thank you for your attention❤️ Stay in touch🤗 Always sincerely with you 😊 Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣 ️ Some of my last post:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RocketBomb
19
SPY momentum is reversing - Lots of DIVERGENCECurrently there is some divergence between the ROC and the price of SPY. ROC (rate of change) is a momentum indicator. There have been multiple divergences like this before, and each one resulted in a trend reversal. The ROC has moved back towards the mid-line, which is a sign of waning momentum. If we cross below the mid-line (0 value) then we could see some downward momentum and lots of selling. We also just hit the 21-period moving average in the previous session. If we cannot stay above it then I will remain bearish.
AMEX:SPY
by Huntz
AUDUSD 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 to bounce from the Uptrend line.AUDUSD🇦🇺 🇺🇸 is pulling back after the failed attempt of taking the 0.77335 Resistance. The 50 ma together with the Clouds suggesting the price is gonna try to break the Resistance again in the short-term. Thus , in case the decline will continue I expect the bounce from the strong Uptrend. If you like the idea PLEASE don't forget to hit the LIKE 👍👍👍button Also share your thoughts and charts here in the comment ⌨️ section
Long
by Alexander_Harford
5