ROKU
ROKU ER run up expecting a nice run up for er maybe an end of the day drop or Tuesday we see some blood for elections, then we pick up volume on Wednesday! Bounce off my .618 Fib at 200.54 if we hold above that we could see a good move up to retest that resistance line. sitting in the middle of the channel room to go either way. most likely down with elections coming up and a big push to retest highs after.
THE WEEK AHEAD: ROKU, WYNN, SQ EARNINGS; XOP, USO, GDXJ, EWZEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS:
... Screened for options liquidity and 30-day implied greater than 50% and ranked by "bang for your buck":
ROKU (38/31/16.4%),* announcing Thursday after market close.
WYNN (27/76/14.7%), announcing Wednesday (no time specified).
SQ (43/74/14.3%), announcing Thursday after market close.
PYPL (56/60/11.6%), announcing Monday after market close.
GM (20/59/11.4%), announcing Thursday after market close.
QCOM (45/54/10.9%), announcing Wednesday after market close.
BABA (65/55/10.5%), announcing Thursday after market close.
Pictured here are two 2 x expected move setups in ROKU, one in November (19 days 'til expiry), and one in December (47 days 'til expiry).
The November setup was paying 8.55 at the mid price as of Friday close, with delta/theta of -.89/51.22; the December: 10.13 at the mid price as of Friday close, with delta/theta of -.95/27.88. I could see doing either, with the primary benefit of the shorter duration being that the volatility contraction tends to be more rapid, and with the primary benefit of the longer duration one being that you've got a little bit more room to be wrong.
If you're of a more defined risk bent, look for an iron condor setup paying at least one-third the width of the wings in credit, such as the November 20th 160/165/265/270, paying 1.63.
Look to put this on in Thursday's session prior to market close, adjusting strikes as necessary to accommodate movement between now and then.
With the exception of GM, the remainder of the underlyings can be short strangled or iron condored, but would go short straddle or iron fly in GM due it's size (34.53 as of Friday close).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%:
XOP (23/69/18.7%)
USO (14/71/17.5%)
GDXJ (22/56/15.7%)
EWZ (29/56/15.5%)
XLE (38/57/14.9%)
GDX (23/46/13.3%)
SLV (28/48/13.0%)
XBI (36/44/12.1%)
EWW (35/49/11.6%)
IWM (42/42/10.8%)
SMH (28/42/10.9%)
QQQ (43/40/10.8%)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (42/42/10.8%)
QQQ (43/40/10.8%)
SPY (38/38/9.6%)
EFA (33/30/8.4%)
IRA DIVIDEND-EARNERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AND SCREENED FOR THOSE PAYING >10%:
EWZ (29/56/15.5%)
XLE (38/57/14.9%)
KRE (32/50/14.1%)
SLV (38/48/13.0%)**
XBI (37/44/12.1%)
* -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price the November at-the-money short straddle is paying.
** -- SLV does not pay a dividend.
ROKU going down?Head and shoulders forming on the 2 hour time frame, looking to see a move down to my minor support level at $169 if we break that zone we will see a movement down to $141. I have my fib .618 retracement at $200.73 as a possible bounce to retest all time highs but with political factors impacting the market theres a very small chance Roku would go back to ATH. We could see the previous highs by end of the year, but as of now just be patient and wait to scale in some long contracts for Roku.