ETH ecosystem to fund initial stage of crypto bullrunWhen markets rotate the money has to come from somewhere. Money can move in and out of one sector of the economy into the other, like money moving from industrials into technology or from fiat into precious metals. Money can also move around within a macro system from its constituent sub-systems. In the case of crypto, think we will see the Ethereum ecosystem beggared while money flows out of it into other ecosystems.
In order to try and stay ahead of the rotations into and out of crypto and into and out of the various layer one projects within crypto I turn to the best tool I have, which is the charts. Once we have the layer one blockchain we care about we can look at other layer projects that ride on top of the layer one to move up the risk curve for more volatility as we see fit.
ETH/Bitcoin
Bitcoin is the biggest single slice of the crypto by fame and market cap. The double top threat is pretty clear at this point. The black double top appears to be an eve and eve with the difference between the first and second peak about 3.12% That is about as textbook as we could want to see. We just have to start breaking the neckline of the formation and we should start to see more volatility in the pair.
Eth Dominance
ETH.D is likewise in a double top but this one is a bit further away from the neckline. The targeting is much the same. Due to the structures of the uptrend I think that 40% draw down is very reasonable and realistic.
XRPETH
XRP appears to be in a ascending triangle against ETH with a target close to 2x if full performance is reached.
Solana/ETH
Solana is suppose to be an Ethereum killer and in the long run I think it will live up to its name. I think it has a couple of years for the ecosystem to mature before It does. A major sign of strength will be if this W pattern performs to target. That would have Sol putting up over twice the gains than eth does in the initial stages of this move.
Polkadot ETH
Dot has been moving sideway for the last 4 months and has created some bullish divergence on the weekly chart. I think we will see it slowly erode share out of eth.
Kadena Eth
One of my favorite layer ones to watch and maybe trade before I see my long term set up is Kadena. It is poised ot have a W pattern that pops it over 100% against eth.
Cronos Eth
Cro seems to be another coin in a wedge against eth. The target this cycle is over 300% away from the current level.
ADA ETH
Oh, look, it is another coin in a bullish falling wedge against ETH. Sure reaching the previous ATH might take a decade or so, but that is a decade to favor ADA over eth.
Doge Meme Coin Versus Eth
Want to consider something that at first glance seem moronic or hilarious? Doge has the structure to 70x eth over the next couple of years.
Final thoughts
The Eth team has done a lot to make their system more affordable to use. As price goes down the ease of use goes up and the adoption goes up. Ethereum is in the process of turning itself into a volume trade and not a profit margin trade. That might be a good thing for cryptocurrency as a whole but I am chasing alpha. Crypto gives me more potential alpha than equities so I play here. If the alpha is leaving eth then I am going to leave as well, no matter how good it could be for the world or the ecosystem. Daddy can't pay for his girls food and clothes if he doesn't get that alpha.
Rotation
Weak Technical Patterns Ahead of EarningsFor now, NYSE:GS the largest of the Financial Services companies left, is struggling a bit. Trading activity in this stock is well below its average at this time. No pre-earnings run patterns have developed yet. There is some rotation recently, with lower money flow.
GRPN Daily BullflagGRPN Daily Bullflag setup with upwards price targets of 15.50, 15.75, and 17.00
SL on breakdown of the bullflag
Bull markets with staples outperforming discretionaries?Well history says yes, as it has happened before
History also says that the times it happened it lasted for 10 to 16 months, and this time it has lasted for 11 months
The key here is that normally, when the $XLY/ AMEX:XLP ratio goes up then the SP:SPX goes up too, but this does not mean that the SP:SPX cannot continue its uptrend without the other going up
Sector rotation is the blood of bull market's heart.
Rotation Games: Endless FunMarket makers control and manipulate prices and they make money all day long day after playing these games.
MMs distribute shares they have accumulated at lower prices to retail traders and Joe Investor. We hold their bag!
Once distribution of one asset is accomplished, MMs then re-accumulate it and begin distribution of other assets.
You see the same movement in and out of R2K, the small caps play the same game. Notice on days when NQ100 is weak, RUT may be strong, will move up 1% when NQ goes off 1%.
Retail needs to understand when they buy these assets at inflated prices, they are bag-holding for big money players.
AMZN Under Pressure to Offer a DividendInventory adjustments are underway for $NASDAQ:AMZN. These adjustments are minor as Dark Pools are holding AMZN long-term, but there are other opportunities to boost ROI in younger companies.
AMZN needs to provide a dividend now that it is a Dow 30 stock. The mild rotation is a gentle reminder to the Board of Directors from their most critical and important investors, the Giant Buy Side Institutions. AMZN is the only fortune 500 company on the S&P500 that doesn't provide a dividend YET. The company's CEO is seasoned and aware that the Board must soon offer dividends, as it is no longer merely a "growth" company.
The pressure is increasing to force a dividend by the Giant investors. This should happen this year. There are no buybacks going on right now either. So the lowering of inventory is a warning to get this done. The Buy Side has the clout to influence the Board's decisions. This would benefit all investors big and small.
The support is at the lows of the red box on the chart, as indicated by the gap down white candle that quickly ended the previous selling by smaller funds.
WHEN, not if, AMZN announces a dividend, there is likely to be some brief momentum activity to the upside.
Buybacks vs. Rotation: JPM and AAPLMany companies are flush with cash right now, so buybacks are going to increase. Buybacks can create plenty of swing trading opportunities.
Buybacks are used by the Board of Directors to drive price upward, or at least maintain price at a certain level. They also remove outstanding shares from public exchanges. The Percentage of Shares Held by Institutions (PSHI) is based on outstanding shares. So with fewer shares outstanding, it can help PSHI hold at a certain level. The Buy Side has been lowering inventory this year. See red arrows on the JPM chart.
In 2018, Buybacks boosted the index components and kept the market from continuing a bear market, which was already underway--a minor bear not a major one. Then in 2019, buybacks surged as the government cut corporate taxes massively. The cash on hand was enormous for most companies so they did mega buybacks, leading the move upward for index components that year. Then, in 2020 the pandemic stock market collapse completed that very odd delayed bear market.
Buyback candles are frequently solid white without wicks or tails. Buybacks often initiate strong swing-style runs, such as they have in $NYSE:JPM. See the blue arrows.
NASDAQ:AAPL also announced a huge buyback program in early May. This gives the Buy Side Institutions the opportunity to lower inventories of AAPL too, without disturbing price much, if at all. AAPL is in a sideways trading range, which is a tough pattern to trade since there is no consensus about what the company is doing to fuel future growth.
Weakening Patterns: NVDANASDAQ:NVDA is over-speculated on the short-term and intermediate-term trends. It has minimal support nearby for holding for a position trade.
Without retail groups or smaller funds, the price action is weakening at this time. Nvidia doesn't report until May 22 which is very late in the season but for now, it has some minor rotation going on.
If it continues to hold above the black line, then it can pattern out the excessive price gains. This is not a strong sell short opportunity, but it is important to keep an eye on this stock for the next couple of weeks.
S&P Sector RotationAll major sectors are strong, confirming SPX strength. There are minor signs of weakness on some charts but nothing serious yet.
MCD: Buy on the dip risk for selling shortThis stock has dipped and slid through its support, which was not a strong support level. There is minimal support nearby. And the support above is now a moderate resistance level.
There was some mild rotation in the Volume Oscillator and Money Flow indicator patterns followed by pro traders selling.
The reversal candlestick pattern failed.
However, the risk for selling short is the retail investors and their investment group gurus advising to buy on the dip.
Today's candle has buy on the dippers in the mix.
S&P Sector rotationPut together information on what is happening in major S&P sectors
Majority of sectors are strong on the daily chart. There are some short-term problems on lower timeframe but they can be overcome.
This is good for buyers as it shows that money is not leaving the market but moving from one sector to another. A lot will depend on tech bulls. XLK must clear 212 resistance to help market move higher.
You can find my market overview here
AMEX:XLK AMEX:XLV AMEX:XLF AMEX:XLY AMEX:XLC AMEX:XLI AMEX:XLP AMEX:XLE
Bending Trends Can Warn of Institutional RotationThe Daily chart of NASDAQ:PANW shows a short term bend in the trend which is common when Giant Buy Side Institutions are in quiet rotation mode to lower inventory, attempting not to disturb price.
Also, Volume Oscillators and Money Flow indicate selling hidden mostly in price that is being carefully controlled.
The stock reports today. This doesn't mean that HFTs have this information nor does it mean that HFTs won't gap it up. It means IF you are holding this stock for a swing trade, risk has increased for a possible run or gap down.
Controlled Large Lot Selling Pattern: TMUSTelecom Industry stocks hit the wall of Market Saturation some time ago. NASDAQ:TMUS has a pattern that indicates a controlled selling mode of larger lots before the earnings report. There has been more volume to the downside and money is flowing out of the stock while the price action develops a narrow sideways range. Risk for a breakout to the downside is high.
What IBKR has in common with SPX? NOTHINGThis is abstract delusional thinking so don't pay attention i have made it just for fun purposes:
1)Burn all the shorts till EoY no pullback
2)Get longs in the first 2 weeks of the New Year
3)Burn all the longs till March Opex
4)Attract more shorts + create room for markets to run till Elections (societal euphoria adding fuel to the current party to win, historical behavior in an election year is in favor of longs)
5)No crazy ATH some prophets are claiming like 5700 or 6000! just enough to create momentum and then zombie mode up and down for the rest of the decade burning longs and shorts index remains at the same levels and passive investing is destroyed (take into account inflation more than +50% at the end of the Decade)
6)My range for 2023-203sh.. 5200-3200
7)2024 winners : small caps and China
8)constant rotation no new money to participate in the markets yet... we have printed too much!!! markets IMHO need to correct mostly in terms of time
9)active management will be the big winner of the decade and brokers' commissions %
10)have fun nobody knows what the market will do but you can control your money and risk management
Rotation Patterns in $CVXNYSE:CVX was the Dow 30 component that had the highest loss on Friday.
The chart clearly shows that the earnings report was not going to be good. The pattern is a failed bottom as there has been rotation to lower inventories of the stock for most of this year.
Declining Accum/Distribution indicators at the lows of the range followed by a negative divergence between the price trend and Accum/Dist are indicative of rotation within the sideways trend that never developed into a bottom.
Another Relational Technical Analysis tip to watch out for in other stocks, especially ahead of earnings reports.
GS Earnings and Institutional HoldingsNYSE:GS has had a sudden huge decline in its Institutional Holdings from last quarter--a whopping 12%. That's huge. This suggests that often the selling is from Buy-Side Institutions.
Goldman Sachs has a buyback program of 30 billion dollars underway, approved end of February 2023. The Buybacks started in March and have continued until recently. I showed the buyback activity on the daily chart in this article earlier this month.
The Support from corporate buybacks poses problems for selling short. The stock is also prone to HFT triggers with frequent gapping. The first Support level is just above the 2022 lows.
The company reported earnings this morning and gapped down at open but is holding onto the sideways range it's been in for 2 weeks so far.
However, Quarterly and Annual Reports are starting to show signs of weakness as this company struggles to reinvent.
NYSE:GS is also facing loss of revenues from IPO underwriting as the NASDAQ Private Market is undermining the high income usually generated from IPOs by underwriters.
IMO, the investment banking industry is slowly becoming obsolete as DeFi, Fintech, Blockchain technologies and Crypto currencies continue to advance and erode traditional revenue streams.
Dow Jones Industrials suddenly not looking too shabbyThe Dow Jones has been out on vacation for the first half of this year, not really participating in the melt-up, and instead, consolidating and working off that sharp rally from Q4 2022.
After all, it was one of the first indexes to bottom from the depths of the bear and start leading things higher.
But now after all of this sideways consolidation, it's starting to offer up a favorable reward-to-risk if it can build momentum over 34,500.
Perhaps a possible rotation into YTD leaders and back into industrials for the second half of the year? I'm not so sure about that yet, but it's a chart worth paying attention to.
$XLE vs $SPY: Rotation back into oil stocksI think this is the play right here, right now...Might be a nice swing to the upside for oil names, specially relative to the market.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Relational Technical Analysis: A New Way to Look at ChartsRelational Technical Analysis™ or “Relational Analysis” is my contribution to the continuing evolution of technical analysis. It helps me understand who is in control of the price action of stocks, indexes, ETFs and more. It can provide a leading analysis for trading or investing in any chartable trading instrument, even cryptocurrencies.
Relational Technical Analysis starts with an understanding of the current market participant cycle. There are 2 sides of the market participant cycle, each with a few different groups: the Professional Side and the Retail Side.
The Professional-Side Groups:
the Buy-Side Institutions, which I often refer to as “the Dark Pools”
the Sell-Side Institutions, which include the Money Central Banks and largest Financial Services Companies
the Professional Traders, both independent and Floor traders for either the Buy Side or Sell Side
the High Frequency Trading Firms, aka HFTs
The Retail-Side groups:
Smaller Funds with less than $3 billion under management
the Retail Groups: small lots and odd lots
At any given time, one or two of these groups will dominate the price, trend and direction of an asset. Relational Technical Analysis reveals which of the market participant groups is in control. This is due to the differences between the way each group trades--how they execute trades, their reasons for buying and selling, their access to information, where in the trend they tend to buy and sell, and more.
For example, there are huge differences between the order types and speed of execution of each market participant group:
Order Types: The Professional side uses unique orders to their trading venues such as Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP) strategies for automated orders and multi-leg cross-market orders. Retail uses Market and Limit orders; Small Funds often use Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) strategies to trigger automated orders.
Speed of Execution: The Professional-Side short-term traders trade on the second. HFTs trade on the millisecond. Retail orders must be filled within 1 minute. Dark Pool transactions can take up to 10 minutes or longer to fill huge, large-lot orders, based on the SEC Midas data analysis.
Additional variables include Lot Size, Time of Day trades are transacted and Venue (whether on the public exchanges or on Alternative Transaction Systems like Dark Pools).
These variables create very different patterns in candlesticks and indicators. Analyzing charts relationally, then, gives the trader an understanding of how price is most likely to behave in the near term. When the Professional Side is in control, the trend is typically more sustainable.
Relational Technical Analysis uses a combination of the price and volume patterns created by each market participant group along with hybrid indicators that reveal the balance of power. The example below uses Chaikin Oscillator. A Volume Oscillator is always included in the set of 5 indicators I teach, a set which differs depending on which indicators you have available.
On the SPX, we can see the shift of sentiment that occurred between October and January as the Dark Pools sold against the Small Funds.
In October and November of 2021, there was extreme speculation from the Small Funds. The steep run up occurred on low volume and an extreme angle of ascent in Chaikin Oscillator.
This was followed by a pattern that represents Dark Pool rotation. A trading range develops with stronger selling volume while Chaikin Oscillator moves down and stays at and below the center line over the topping pattern development. This rotation zone is confirmed in the months following, as Dark Pool TWAPs continue. The largest institutions were lowering their inventory of S&P500 components ahead of the downtrend.
This Relational Technical Analysis showed a Shift of Sentiment in the market that was a crucial leading indication of the risk of a significant downside trend developing. Traders using this analysis had ample time to prepare for the downtrend which resulted in a Bear Market decline this year.
Thinking ahead from here, I'm looking for the opposite as a bottom starts developing: a shift of sentiment back to the upside where Retail and Small Funds capitulate, followed by Dark Pool accumulation patterns.
In summary, Relational Technical Analysis is a new way of looking at the charts which focuses on the unique candlestick patterns, trend formations and indicator patterns that each market participant group creates. This can provide a leading analysis for all trading styles.
Martha Stokes, CMT
www.TechniTrader.Courses
This has been an introduction to Relational Technical Analysis, which I teach at TechniTrader and which I presented to the CMT Association in 2015.
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
TOTAL3 - Alt Season Could Be Just Around The CornerIn a previous idea i've compared eth price with what btc did in may- aug 2017. TOTAL3 (crypto m. cap excluding btc and eth) looks even more similar than eth does. We see clear initial fall in the summer, then barely setting new highs, before turning down, heading into the lows, maybe go even lower a bit. We should expect HUGE reversal to the upside. This is because one vital element is missing here. We haven't altseason for nearly 80% of all the altcoins. Many of which haven't even rally 1/3 of what they did in a previous cycle, even though they are listed on all major exchanges, and have a use case. (XRP, DASH, EOS, XMR, ZEC, IOTA...)
I expect one final flush to come, then euphoria...
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Bitcoin, Triangles, a flagpole, and Stock to flowTLDR
Don't overthink things. Stock to flow gives you a average price to target, and triangles are easy to spot and trade for targeting. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
Introduction
One of the most important things I have picked up on my relatively short trading career (about 5 years) is to have faith in the long term trading patterns. Long term trading patterns can help calm your mind and help you 360 degree set a trade with entries and stops and take profits that you can just fire and forget until your alerts tell you have taken profit or been stopped out. Due to the learning curve a lot of my technical analysis was better than my ability to hold a trade through without removing my stops, taking profits early, adding to my position when I should have been closing, so forth and so on.
So this post will deal with the humble triangle
Analysis
The current patterns of interest are the purple symmetrical triangle which is occurring at the support of the orange ascending triangle. Triangles in themselves are one of the easiest patterns to recognize but some of the worst when it comes to full performance to target, throwbacks, and fakeouts. So, in general, the larger the pattern, the better, the more divergences you have to back up your bullish or bearish bias the better, and the clearer the fundamental case, the better.
To back up our humble triangle we have hidden bullish divergence on the Stochastic and the RSI. Very simple and powerful indicators when used on the weekly timeframe to verify patterns.
To further support our bullish bias is the stock to flow, which has acted as a leading indicator for bitcoins average price for the whole time the indicator has been in play after its creation.
Targeting
There are several ways to do target setting on a triangle. The main one would be to take the height of the uptrend, clone it, then move it to the point of break out. Now, with triangles being one of the worst with reaching full target that is perhaps not the best way to go about things unless you are very good with training your stops.
As the chart below shows with the blue triangle, taking a high and low fib retracement and looking at the positive extensions can do a fairly good job of predicting local highs. Both the 1.414 and 1.618 were areas where price retraced. Going forward off of that draw, a pause at the 2 and 2.618 levels would be very predictable, reliable and technical.
The chart below shows two different set of fibs. The bold black fibs are drawn off the ascending triangle and the dark purple fibs are based off of a fib extension treating the move as a flagpole and continuation pattern, like an Elliot wave 1 and 2. Where it appears both fibs are in agreement is an area we would suspect to see a stall with a future continuation pattern to develop.
Fundamental Analysis
This is a hypothesis I don't have time to fully flesh out here, but for a long time people have been hoping for rotation. A common rotation people hope to play is the roation out of equities into commodities. That was a good play in the early 2000 and many people are hoping for it to be a good play again. Now, I am hoping for a great rotation this time around out of equites and into crypto instead of commodities.
And I think the charts support my notion of money rotating out of equities into crypto.
Conclusion
The stops are easy enough to set for even a new trader that has swung by investopedia.com or Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com and read the basic articles on triangles and flagpoles. The rotation thesis is likewise easy to understand, even if you don't agree with it, as is the concept behind the stock to flow model, which I did not dive into. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
Battleplan: 4 Month look at Gold versus the NDX suggest rotationIt is always good to have a plan. Even better if you have a way to stick to it. Nasdaq has taken quite a beating and people who are worried about inflation, stagflation, recession and depression want to know what to do. Well, I can't give financial advice to others, but I can plan for myself. Gold hasn't moved a lot and that has some people concerned. I think the move is just beginning and a look at higher time frames will show that.
Simple candlestick analysis on the Gold/Nasdaq pair shows that we closed the 4 month period with a banger with the candle engulfing two whole periods and almost a third. This is a very strong indicator that the trend has shifted and resembles the trend shift in late 2000. From 2000 to 2008 gold was the clear outperformer with an initial impuse then a multi-year cup and handle formation taking the pair to a high in late 2008/early 2009. From there a few years of sideways topping action and then the price action shows rotation out of gold into the Nasdaq.
Gold/NDX Indicators
The Pair price action has dropped way below the Keltner and Gaussian chanel and I have been waiting for a sign that shows the momentum has shifted and the candle stick analysis suggests. The chart below details the bullishness I see and I won't repeat myself here. I do expect another multi-year consolidation pattern on the pair but it is still much to early to tell what to expect. I do expect a couple of periods of impulse to the bottom of the gaussian channel.
My strategy
A look at this chart suggest that a BTFD strategy will work so long as traders and investors switch the dip they are buying from equities into gold or other miners. I generally expect gold to run first, then silver.
A look back from 2000 to 2010 does seem to show a simple strategy on this weekly chart does seem to be to buy every breakout of multi-month or multi-year resistance or to simply accumulate at the lows of the Keltner channel and certainly buy the Gaussian channel.
Based on that I will be looking for the gold price to get above the resistance charted below. Failure to get above that trendline would be a theory failure, meaning that rather than gold and Nasdaq going separate directions for a while then gold outperforming as they both tend upwards that Gold would merely be going down less than the Nasdaq. In that case I will just wait for cheaper prices.
