Roundedtop
WMT Walmart Distribution Sell SignalWalmart is a strong stock that has painted fresh ATH's in the past couple weeks. However, this recent price action has shown considerable weakness: lowered volume, bearish RSI divergences, and an inability to strongly breakout much higher. It seems to be sputtering and in danger of turning over in a rounded top fashion. Candlesticks and wicks on the daily, weekly, and monthly bars look like we're at a top.
COST Regression analysisPresence of a rising wedge, broadening ascending wedge, Costco has been on a massive bull run. Rounded top also present which may be indicative of a bearish move, but with the strong rising channel and regression trend of 0.92 (strong regression trend according to Pearson's R value) the chart appears definitely more bullish rather than bearish.
XRP/BTC: Pure DistributionIt can be seen that ripple has had a double top, which is noted in the chart in light blue. This form of double top is known as an Adam and Eve double top with a V top for the first one and a massive rounded top for the second one. The rounded tops or bottoms are some of the strongest most reliable patterns because they indicate a long duration of either distribution or accumulatio (with this case being distribution). The price objective which can be seen as the light blue arrow is a conservative one with a minimum price objective of around 2000 satoshis, (it can be noted that I did not accurately measure this to create an even more conservative price objective).
In addition, I indicated the current support and resistance as the green and red box, respectively, it is important to note how weak ripple is right now because it was unable to reach the breakout price of the double top which was about 6100 satoshis.
SPX - Huge Bearish EngluflingI don't post about the SPX but I do check it from time to time. Is this the market peak? It may be with this rounded top and the huge bearish engulfing candle we just printed on the daily chart. Personally I would not be opening new long positions with this chart.
Play it however you see fit
Good luck.
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 231)I recently posted Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart . It provided new dates and prices for the bottom, however it’s still slightly too early to abandon my predictions from the previous Bitcoin Bubble Comparison ]Bitcoin Bubble Comparison: 1 day - 5 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 | | Calling for $35 ETH around the same time
Previous analysis / position: Closely watching trend and horizontal resistance on USDT:USD’ and wanting to see it stabilize before re entering shorts / Short USDT:USD at 0.968 | Short ETH:USD from $198.58 and short BTC' from $6,367
Patterns: Descending triangle | 12h rounded top / button top
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,355 | R: $6,400`
BTCUSDSHORTS: Approaching top of triangle
Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Closed below and starting to resist - bear
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Closed below and starting to resist - bear
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Angling down with price below - bear
Overall trend: When all three trends line up it’s time to look for a position
Volume: When volume?
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Today closed a bearish spinning top
Ichimoku Cloud: “Best entries occur when all the metrics flip at the same time” Watch 4h cloud. It is threatening a bearish TK’ cross and a bearish kumo twist. Bottom of cloud = 6,300.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly R2 falls below R1 at $6,039 on weekly. 1D is price flipping | 12h red 2 closed below a red 1. Red 3 is currently an inside bar.
Visible Range: Gap in volume from $6,242 - $6,349 with one month look back
Price action: 12h: -0.65% | 24h: -0.66% | 2w: -2.36% | 1m: +1.04%
Bollinger Bands: Resisting below daily and weekly MA, watching for it to fall below 12h MA
Trendline: Bottom of descending triangle = $6,100 | Top of triangle = $6,700
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: Hanging around 50 on most time frames
Stochastic: Making bearish re cross on daily with double top | 3d: bullish | W: Bearish
Possible Entries: I really like to build a position when all of the trends (short / medium / long) are moving in the same direction and after today’s close they are all bearish as far as I am concerned.
I also really like to see my major indicators in aggreeance. That is what we are getting today with the moving averages, TD’ Sequential, Ichimoku Clouds, Bollinger Bands and daily Stochastic.
It has been months since I have seen this much confluence in my daily process with these indicators.
Furthermore, USDT:USD' has broken through the downtrend that had me worried and I will likely close that short position out on the next test of support.
Possible Entries: Weekly red 2 falls below the red 1 at $6,039 on weekly | 12h red 2 closed below a red 1 | Daily is price flipping, keep an eye out for a red 2 below today | 4h Ichimoku cloud is threatening a bearish TK’ cross and a bearish kumo twist. Bottom of cloud = 6,300 | There is also a gap in volume below $6,349 with 1 month look back (good place to set stop order)
It can be hard not to get over excited and smash the market sell / short button when all of the indicators would suggest that is a good idea. Take a deep breath and write down your plan. What is your: time horizon, profit target, maximum desired exposure, and where will your stop loss be?
Take the maximum desired position size and divide it by 3. Enter that portion today and then wait until tomorrow to add. That is what I am doing. This will minimize losses when the position moves against you and still leave you with plenty of time to get fully positioned.
This next move is going to be big, you can afford to be as careful as possible when building your position.
Good luck!
Rounded top reversal pattern // Sell the Neckline // IF=THEN ®FX:AUDNZD
Once the price breaks through and a candle closes below the neckline, i can enter the market with a sell order.
Target is measured by taking the height of the actual pattern (from neckline to the top), and extending that distance down from the neckline.
Safe trades;