BTC Short Trade Opportunity and SetupBYBIT:BTCUSDT.P / BYBIT:BTCUSDT / CRYPTO:BTCUSD Bitcoin/BTCUSD has recently hit the resistance level of a pattern that has generally held true since mid March 24 (4 preceding resistance and support confirmations).
Furthermore, it has started a return downward move following on from a 3 day filter for confirmation of the resistance level (an example of how a 3/5 day filter is an important tool for crypto trading).
Additionally:
The RSI resistance level of 70 has been recently reached and the RSI is trending downwards - a usually statistically significant indicator
The downward return move is supported by reasonable (although not enough on it's own) volume
A 3 bar pattern (downward move, pause, further downward move for confirmation)
A rate of change approaching and trending negative
A MACD also approaching negative
It's always important to assess the risk that might prove the thesis wrong. And they are:
Today's candlestick pattern is close to a dragonfly, i.e. there might be a return upwards move imminent (although this is unlikely to constitute a beginning of a move beyond the previous high as an actual dragonfly candlestick is at the end of a downtrend)
The MACD is trending down but has not actually turned negative yet, i.e. it is a bit early to say this indicator is stating a downward trend
The ROC hasn't turned negative yet either (but is trending downwards for sure)
This all leads to the following conclusion: For those with a high enough risk appetite (and usually crypto traders are those with the highest :-)) this is a good entry point for a short trade.
Using the (admittedly early but still reasonable) trend for the past three days to determine the final take profit point of 45500 (blue arrow) by approx. 19 Nov 24, the following can be set as a guide for a trade:
Entry: Now or latest tomorrow in case today's candlestick is an indicator of a minor move upwards
SL: $70,500
TP1: $63,450 - based on the first potential moving average being a resistance (200 MA)
TP2: $60,500 - based on the previous move's consistent (and twice confirmed) low
TP3: $54,500 -based on a previous historic low (i.e. psychologically important price point) which also acts as a confirmation of support to a previous move
TP4: $45,500 - The approximate price point of an estimated downward trend
Exit date (independent of TP level): 19 Nov 24
NOTE: the 19 Nov date here is important. It is the forecasted date by which the current downward price trend would linearly reach the support level. This date would be used as a checkpoint to exit the entire trade to safeguard against the normal, usually dramatic and beyond rational calculation price gyrations of crypto.
Rsi14
Symmetrical Triangle Formation in CAMS – Awaiting BreakoutOverview:
CAMS is currently forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, a classic continuation pattern. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation before the next significant move, and given the stock’s strong previous uptrend, there is a potential for an upward breakout. However, the symmetrical triangle is neutral until confirmed, so both bullish and bearish breakouts are possible.
Pattern Breakdown:
The triangle is defined by point A (around 4900 INR), where the stock reached a high, and point B (around 3850 INR), marking the recent low. The price has been forming lower highs C (around 4600 INR) and higher lows D (around 4200 INR) as it tightens into the apex.
This contraction in price is a sign that the market is undecided, but once it breaks out of the triangle, a directional move is expected.
Key Observations:
RSI Oscillator:
The RSI, set to a period of 14, is hovering around the neutral zone (~50). This shows that the stock isn’t currently overbought or oversold. A move above 70 or below 30 could signal a strong trend in the direction of the breakout.
Volume Decline:
As the triangle develops, volume has been tapering off, a typical characteristic of consolidation. A significant volume spike will be key in confirming the breakout direction.
Breakout Levels:
Upside Breakout: A break above point C (around 4,600 INR) could trigger a bullish continuation, given the previous uptrend. Traders should wait for confirmation via price action and volume.
Downside Breakout: A breakdown below point D (around 4,200 INR) could signal a bearish reversal, especially if accompanied by increased volume.
Final Thoughts:
Symmetrical triangles can break in either direction, so it's crucial to wait for confirmation. Given the prior bullish trend in CAMS, there's a greater probability for an upward breakout, but the possibility of a downside move can’t be ruled out. Patience is key—monitor the volume and price action carefully for a strong breakout signal.
Disclaimer :
This is for educational purpose only. I am not SEBI registered advisor. Take advice from financial advisor before investing.
SMR approaching DCA opprtunityNYSE:SMR is approaching a potential entry point for the start of a DCA strategy for a long term hold.
SUMMARY
Wait to see where the price moves. Using a combination of RSI reaching 30 and the price falling to (with a 3 day filter) around $4 or if the price continues to fall then around $2 (another 3 day filter at this level too), begin entry with a DCA strategy. Alternatively, if the price rises above $6, after a 3 day filter, begin DCA. If the price starts forming a flag between $5 and $5.80, enter once RSI has reached 30 (for those with a higher risk appetite can just use the RSI as an indicator) or await a range breakout/down to either enter at the $4 or $2 or $6 level as described above with or without a three day filter.
The price was seeing exponential growth in the leadup to the latest quarterly earnings report and popped a few days after. However, the price has subsequently fallen back down and now seems to be forming a pattern.
It is unknown really what caused the price to jump. And there has not been any significant insider trading on the day (or lead up to the day) where the price recently peaked.
The company itself has a healthy balance sheet and debt/equity ratio. It is still in the growth phase as they build somewhat emerging tech (nuclear power is established but their approach to providing customers modular smaller power stations is unique) and a large part of their customer base is still a maturing market (power hungry data centres wanting their own onsite nuclear power source, particularly those now being setup for providing AI). The company's income statement reflects this as net income over the recent years remains negative and is also not showing an upwards trajectory.
With this in mind this would be a stock for a long term hold with a DCA investment strategy until, whichever comes first, either a total dollar figure invested is reached or the company becomes long term profitable (i.e. exits the growth phase).
With the recent price fluctuations it is crucial to not enter too early as due to the immature nature of the industry and company, the price also has a high likelihood of remaining at a low level for quite some time. However, a DCA entry opportunity is also forming based on one of the 3 of the more likely price trend scenarios described in the chart. Details on these are as follows.
Scenarios 1 and 2:
Wait to see which way the price begins to move and see if it falls to one of the two support levels identified, make use of the RSI to identify the optimum entry point. If the price falls to $4, add in a 3 day filter to see if the price doesn't fall further and likewise add in a 3 day filter if the price continues to fall from $4 to $2. If the RSI has reached 30, and the 3 day filter has shown that $4 or $2 were a support level begin DCA. If the price continues to fall below 2, halt the DCA to see where the price becomes stable and then restart once the RSI starts trending upwards again.
Scenario 3:
If the price begins ranging between $5.30 and $5.80, depending on risk appetite, begin DCA once the RSI reaches 30 or starts trending upwards. If the price breaks out above $6, then add in a 3 day filter to ensure the breakout wasn't a false dawn, and start the DCA investment independent of where the RSI is.
A 456 day bubble corrected to -84%, an air of Déjà Vu !!This is the synthesis of my previous publications!
Here are all the common points between:
- the Ultimate Dip of January 14, 2015 ($ 160)
- and the last known Dip of December 15, 2018 ($ 3200)
-85% retracement from ATH $ 1175>160, same as $ 19930>3200
-45% retracement since the previous ATL $ 250>160, same $ 5775>3200
455 days since takeoff at $ 160>160, same as $ 3200>3200
Rebounding below 78.6% Fibo to $ 160, same to $ 3200
with rebound on MA200 to $ 160, same as $ 3200
with rebound of RSI14 < 30 to $ 160, same as $ 3200
At the crossroads of level 4 support
with 2x1 fan resistance
on the GANN Square at $ 160, same $ 3200
See related ideas for more details on these indicators ;)
CAUTION: This is not an investment advice
Do not follow any "prophet", invest only what you are willing to lose
$ 6000 this end of the year for a new ATH in 2020, complements !Additional informations for my idea of October 12, 2019 (see Related Ideas) on Bitcoin :
1) 200-day Mobile Average (MA 200) as a bounce zone this year end at $ 6,000.
2) Descending Triangle of my previous idea replaced by a Bearish Parallel Channel: what I interpret as being a big Bullish Flag under construction, like those of the previous 2 speculative bubbles, also represented on this chart. These Flags were only pauses in the overall Bullish Trend, having each time experienced their Dip in contact with MA 200.
3) Repetitive cycle of the RSI 14 alternating overbought and oversold zones as a trend reversal signal confirmation indicator.
RSI 14 to 60 = sign of Bull Trap for the end of April?My previous publications provide for 6 months a Bull Trap close to ~ $ 6k
The situation of RSI 14 similar to that of the 2015 Bull Trap post-Downtrend seems to be an additional indicator that this risk is imminent
Some reminders:
I recall that the bullish influence at the output of the symmetrical triangle (see my previous publications) is technically complete.
Only the current presence of an ascending triangle, who is a continuation pattern (see my previous publication), can hope for a $ 6k, but nothing more.
On the other hand, the spectrum of the historical resistant oblique, although crossed, remains strong, among other indicators already detailed previously (MA crossing...)
DISCLAIMER: Invest only what you can afford to lose. Do not listen to any "prophet".
Beware of your own emotions potentially disconnected from the market reality (panic / euphoria ... FUD / FOMO)
Long trade w/ 4 entries, NZDUSD 4hNZDUSD is trending up, with EMA 25/50/100/200 showing uptrend, as well as RSI trending up, MACD having a reduction of short pressure and SM is trending up with higher tops and higher lows. As such I will enter one position at .696, as well as a three orders at fibonacci level 38.2, 50 and 61,8. These fibonacci levels are close to the EMA levels, which should provide extra support. TP is aimed at previous top, which is .705.
Entry 1: .696
Entry 2: .694
Entry 3: .69
Entry 4: .687
TP: .705