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Rsi_divergence

Everything I've learned about the RSI BINANCE:BTCUSDT In this post, I'll make an attempt to share everything I've learned over the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Over the past 24 months. Nothing described in this post is financial advice, it's just me, sharing thoughts and ideas with you. nb: this post is more suited for traders and investors that are already educated about the RSI Indicators. A brief introduction about the indicator itself : The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to evaluate whether it's better to buy, sell, or wait. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100. The RSI is probably the most used oscillator in finance nowadays, by both retail traders and institutions, hence meaning that when used well , it can be used as a great edge to profitability. RSI popular uses : - An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30. - The RSI can give us insights on a potential trend's loss of momentum or validity when the price pivots levels are diverging with the RSI indicator (hidden and regular divergences) - The most popular RSI length is 14 periods. My findings 1. Overbought and oversold: myth or reality? RSI's 30 and 70 levels never proved themselves to be a strong enough edge for me to be used as a standalone signal for trade entries. As an example, just look at the irregularity of the results you would get when using just these zones : My take on it is that as a price oscillator when it crosses into extremes, it simply means price momentum is at extreme levels. To me it's basically like a mountain cyclist in the middle of a race: he might very well go faster and higher, however, the quicker and higher he goes the more unlikely he is to keep up with that speed. Eventually, he might either decrease its speed or even go backward. What does this tell us ? The RSI 30 and 70 levels seem to be better used when used as timing indicators. For example, the 70 and 30 levels could be used as a filter for a trader to eliminate market noise when using a trend reversal strategy (mean-reversion). For trend traders, the levels could be used to timing signals where they'll start looking for price to do a pullback (consolidation) to get in the trend. My experience using the 30 and 70 levels as exit signals however has been better (when it comes to using it as the only signal for a trade exit). Say you are long on BTCUSD, in profit, and you get an RSI closure above 70. Well, in that case, you could exit 50% of your position and wait for the oscillator to cross down the 70 levels to exit the rest (as the overbought and oversold zones are rarely a defining factor for trend reversals and corrections). 2. Divergences in the overbought and oversold zones : The lower the time frame you are trading on is, the higher the noise when it comes to divergences, especially with volatile assets such as BTCUSD. So you might want to filter out most of the ones you see to only take the best ones. On the 15M and 5M timeframes, on BTCUSD, I find that on average about 1/3 of the divergences I see play out. However, we are not expected to take every divergence we see. Here's what has helped me get better results with divergences : - When approaching supply and demand zones, especially the higher timeframe ones, we might want to be more aggressive with the divergences we enter into. As the hit rate is not always amazing, the R:R is usually much better, and if the trade works out, it might give you great results which accounts for the low win rate. - If you want to increase your win rate, I also find that going for higher timeframes is usually better when it comes to divergences. - Take only divergences where RSI divergence's first pivot point is over 70 or under 30. Ideally, you don't want the noise to go below 60, or above 40, so that your trade has the necessary momentum to play out. - For extra confirmation, wait for a break of the noise level to enter the trade. - Regular and hidden divergences play hand in hand creating a form of momentum equilibrium. Hidden divergences always create regular divergences and vice versa. Hence a hidden divergence can be considered an early pullback warning to get in a bigger-picture trend. - Regular divergences tend to play out better than hidden divergences. This is especially true when the volume is decreasing, or after a longer period of consolidation when volatility has been contracting and might be about to expand soon. - Regular divergences in strong trends can be both a disaster and a treat. "The trend is your friend". This saying is especially true here. However, 2-3 drives of regular divergences are a great indication of a potential reversal, with enough confirmation factors to produce (often time) a great entry. - The angle of the trend line between divergences pivot points, both on the price chart and the RSI, can be a good indication of the severity of the divergence occurring. - The ideal lookback period for detecting divergences for me has proved to be between 5 and 28 bars. (Below 5 bars is not enough to confirm a true pivot point for me and above 28 bars has probably already played out in past price movements). - Like all edges, using a divergence strategy always produces better results when used in confluence with other signals. I find the best confluences happen when divergences occur: alongside a stochastic cross, near medium-slow moving averages, near horizontal supply and demand zones, alongside volatility expansion, when the volume is decreasing (meaning market makes are in disagreement with the move occurring), near Bollinger bands 2.5 to 3 standard deviations (period 20). - Convergence between your timeframes and higher timeframes is key to understanding how to better choose your trades. Try to play the big divergences but enter smaller timeframes divergences. - When you lose a divergence trade, don't get disappointed. Jump back in because often time, and price will need to do several divergences before getting in your desired direction (however, be careful not to jump in tilt mod. Know your win rate and R:R and keep your money management serious. You'll get blown out if you start tilting on this, especially if you trade reversals with divergences, as it's difficult to get the right timing every time). 3. RSI as a trend filter? - I've found that in trending markets, when RSI's Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses above the 50 line, it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses. - I've found that in trending markets when the RSI line crosses above the EMA (I use a 12 period), it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses. - As an indication of the trend's direction, I don't find any value in using bullish and bearish control zones. The only use I can find them is when using them for divergence levels filters. This is the end of the first post of this 2 parts series. There's just so much more you can discover about this indicator that it simply cannot be constricted to a few lines of writing. However, you are welcome to take a few of my findings and go test them out using replay and backtesting. See for yourself, and find your balance. Most of my learnings have been made through screentime, trial, and error, backtesting, mistakes, and research. Have a good day, Arthur Girard
Education
by arthurgirard15
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER ANALYSIS!!i want to say a lot of things in this idea. so i will take it step by step, and be with me till the end of it. first lets talk about the trend lines: TREND LINES: the blue lines: are the trend been followed by the stock past from the corona crash. the major black lines is the new trend which should be followed by the stock. this is because, the 2020 crash gave a boost to markets, and even many other sectors got benefitted from it. HUL is the market leader, and do takes a good position in NIFTY 50, the fmcg sector has a good future(said by many analysts), the sector is forming and be gonna great in coming future. HUL will support the above statement. the trend is drawn by the markets consolidation, and major points of resistance and support. the red lines drawn are just crucious level to watch when to buy/sell considering only short term swing trading. yup, more can be drawn, but i found out those as much more crusious the major green line is the support taken by the stock, after the FII selling been stopped and markets started to recover, and make the stock come back to its new trend. 2nd step: FIBBONACI RETRACEMENT: recently the stock came down and stopped at 0.5 level. and now it is followed by going upside, with a green candle. this week will be a could positive reaction of the stock. offcourse in the month of DEC, i am positive too. (fibonnaci is taken from the lowest point of 2020 crash till, the ATH of stock). 3. RSI INDICATOR. do note in the weekly chart of this stock, the RSI have mostly ranged from 45-75. currently its around 50, so this increases a lot of chance that HUL is undervalued. FINAL POINT: i could still more add more indicators, to show, but not to consider over analysis, or say not make my idea so lengthy. its obvious more this 3 points(stated above), that HUL is a great to buy at this level. one could earn about 20% from the swing trade, and about 40% return annually.
NSE:HINDUNILVRLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
BTC bullish megaphone pattern with double bottom +RSI breakoutHi dear community. I'm looking at weekly timeframe. As you see there is a huge megaphone bullish chart pattern on BTC chart, its target I published on my previous analyses. I think the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom + RSI bullish divergence like 2021 November top, which was a false breakout/bull trap/ with double top+ RSI bear div. So I think the real bottom was at 17.5K in June like the real top in 2021 April. I'm considering that BTC has succeeded to break RSI diagonal trendline and now It is making a retest, I think it will hold and send BTC to 28-30K. On chart you can find my explanation why I think RSI diagonal resistance has broken.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
1
NIFTY50 SMALL CORRECTION AHEAD!!US recession over(analysis in link section). MANY FII BUYING AND DII SELLING ARE COMING IN THE MARKET!! In previous days, markets where net rising only, but still we could see a lot of selling, from DII side. many FII are steping in. and due to gap ups, the markets are closing in positives. we could see the M AND W pattern are completed, anf there could now be a small correction since, RSI indicator is also in overbought zone. paths are drawn, and then we could again see a rise in markets during end week of this month. if you want to take some new positions in market, do wait for the market to go a little below, then start entering in the markets.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by raghavchoudhary2016
📈✌ETH 30Min Long Position: Risky✌📉BINANCE:ETHUSDT COINBASE:ETHUSD Hi traders, first take a look at my previous analysis and positions. between now and the determined level, you can open long position in one or two steps. 🐱‍🏍 If the price rises and reaches the TP1 level, you can risk-free the position. TP1-2-3-4-5-6 are on the chart. The optimum stop-loss is below the determined levels. Please share ideas and leave a comment, let me know what's your idea. CrazyS✌
Long
by CrazyS
4
$ETH - Following the similar PATTERN to Dig Down !Hello my Fellow TraderZ, If you see $ETH #ETHEREUM - it is similarly like the last time when the price got rejected by the Downward TL. If the Rising TL (RED ARROW) breaks, expecting the price to test atleast the support level of $1420-1370. This move likely be supported by the Bearish Divergence formed on RSI on 4 HTF. This is looking obvious also because after breaking the level recently price never came back to retest the level. So this pullback could be Positive also. Invalidation level - breaking of $1650. CHEERS!!!
by TRADER-GOKU
1
USD/CAD near-term top in place?USD/CAD appears to have completed a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) top. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downturn. The broadly anti-USD response to October's #NFP report may have triggered a breakdown through the H&S pattern's neckline. The measured-move downside objective implied by the setup calls for a test of the 1.30 figure. Clearing resistance at 1.3877 and reclaiming a foothold above the 1.40 figure would probably neutralize selling pressure.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
1
S&P 500 RECESSION ANALYSIS!EARLIER, i had posted saying if the us markets goes further down what will be there point. (check the link section) lets go on further, recession means what earned everything lost, reached its breakeven point. what profit gained has gone away, with net having no loss and no profit. FIBONACCI ANALYSIS: Fibonacci describes this statement in a very beautiful manner. if the price is trading at the 0.5 level then it is has reached its recession point. although do note that 0.5 level is also a deciding level. okay, i will come to this later. lets talk about this idea that why is the US started recovering. interest rates had started coming down, and the indices are reacting very positively towards it. i have explained to Fibonacci that now the recession has been completed according to this indicator. MOVING AVERAGES(50 AND 100): both the moving averages(50 and 100), are meeting at one point, and they will now repel and move upwards. RSI: yet it needs to give a breakout, but is definitely showing divergence(the two purple lines), relating to price action TREND LINES: THE BLUE TREND LINE: yet needs to be breached, and yes this is the move that will make the break of it. many of the great tech stocks have massively come down, and now they are showing divergence and a good upside move is gonna come. FINAL WORDS: US markets will have a boom in their upside movement, as many of them kept on selling their positions, and such the interest rates have started coming down and will become normal within 1-2 years, so from now onwards the next year will be a great run for the US markets. i will come to my point which i earlier which i had left in the middle, in my previous s&p analysis(link below), i had mentioned if s&p goes further down then recession stage, then at what point will it go down, and what will be the levels furtheron. but since interest rates have started coming down, and mostly all the other economical news has been factored, i say that now there is a great space that us markets can have there bull run, and they will have, because its so clear that markets are tend to go upside, and they are the ones who react at first. thank you.
SP:SPXLong
by raghavchoudhary2016
$DOGE - Break it or Take it !!!Hello my Fellow TraderZ, I hope you guys have seen my yestedray's post where I mentioned about this move was expected and again we have nailed it with whoopy PUMPA. Today I will be sharing my view on Daily TF and what could be expected. Right now $DOGE is facing its major Resistance zone lies here. If clears this zone, it has no further strong barriers to $0.2 - $0.23 which is another 40-50% move from here. But the concerning point is that the RSI on DTF is extremely overheated + a clear cut BEARISH DIVRGENCE on 4 HTF and so I'm expecting a healthy pullback with drawdown of ~25-35%. Also if you see with increasing price, Volume bars are going down which generally indicates the exhaustion of fuel to the PUMPA. So be cautious and make yours' entry carefully on either side. CHEERS!!!
Long
by TRADER-GOKU
2
Too fast, too furious for Natural Gas?After a sharp drop in August, Natural Gas futures is now sitting close to the long-term uptrend support which has marked key reversal points since June 2020. Our question is whether prices have fallen too fast and too soon? We question “too furious” when we look at the RSI which currently points to oversold levels. Hitting a low close to 24, the last time RSI reached such an oversold level, in February 2017, prices rallied close to 35% over the next 2 months. We also note the formation of RSI divergence now, like the one we observed during the 2017 period. If history is any guide, from a technical perspective we can expect some upside for Natural Gas in the coming 2 months. We question “too fast” as we are at the dawn of the seasonality trade. With demand for Natural gas used for heating generally rising as winter months are approaching, we can reflect on the seasonality behavior of Natural Gas prices over the past winters. A simple strategy of buying in the middle of October and waiting for the winter months gives a 70% win-rate when we look back at the past 10 years. Could we expect the same this winter? On top of these, we think there are a few structural factors that might boost natural gas demand in the US over a longer-term horizon. 1) The recent announcement by the Biden administration that ruled out a ban or curbs on natural gas exports this winter, and Europe’s struggle with the energy crisis spell good news for Natural Gas’s demand. 2) Current Natural gas storage levels are also below the 5-year average as reported by the US EIA . 3) A move away from coal as agreed in the COP26 means alternative energy sources are bound to replace coal. With many coal-powered plants being refurbished to work with natural gas, we see structural demand rising as more of these plants come online. Natural gas’s current technical levels point oversold to us, with the seasonality trade potentially on the cards and an overall supportive macro backdrop, we lean bullish on Natural gas. As Natural Gas is considered a highly volatile contract, we can use the Average True Range (ATR) to set our stops. In this case, we follow the rule of thumb to multiply the ART by 2, which sets our stop at roughly 4.550. Entry at 5.200, stop at 4.550. Target at 6.400. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by inspirante
15
BTCUSDT Deep Crab, CMF & RSI fractalAs we can see on this 1D chart, BTCUSDT can be ready to drop as Chaikin Money Flow and RSI correlations seems to be close to repeat signals for a potential drop. A target for this possible impulsive bearish wave is a Deep Crab harmonic pattern aiming the bottom from this consolidation. A strong pullback can occurs @ the support area. For an effective signal to exit of this trade the LSMA of 28 periods breakout can be a good indicator to avoid of a non-profitable consolidation phase after a potential 10% average downward. All the profitable trend tends to stay below 28LSMA due to the oversold condition on RSI. All the key levels are displayed on this chart.
Short
by firmestudio
1
GOLD MTF Wave stochastic example for trend reverseSometimes you don't need to count all of the Elliott Waves and pinpointing where the last Impulse started is enough to located the proper Time frame to look for that wave ending on the MTF. in this case the 1 month chart was the relative Time frame for the last impulse upwards (see where I wrote MTF stoch wave start) and you can see that from the Stoch being oversold on all time frames. then notice how the green (HTF) starts curving down at the end with a tap from blue and gray as a potential local top to exit at.. this is often all you need to trade a simple wave without too much complication. Please do not hesitate to ask any questions
TVC:GOLDEducation
by cryptoheat