Litecoin... almost thereLitecoin is at a critical pivot I have been highlighting for a long time in several posts. The 'golden ratio' of .618 Fibonacci resistance which LTC is currently teetering around (now a few dollars below). We need to see a solid extension above this level, which equates to about 163, to establish a firmly bullish perspective going forward as far as technical analysis is concerned. The importance of Fibonnaci levels is critical and this is shown with 11 elliptical circles showing where Fibonnaci levels have served as support/ resistance. Recent bullish development include:
1) A reversal in volume patterns with respect to price indicated by the upward sloping green line which is preceded by 4 or 5 downward sloping magenta ones.
2) Positive RSI developments indicated with a white dashed line.
3) Failure of the 'death-cross' to occur which happens when the 50-day movilng average dips below the 200. LTC is also above both of these moving averages.
4) Bullish MACD crossover visible at the bottom.
At the time of writing RSI is indicating LTC is a bit overbought and may pull back a bit but I doubt this would be the start of a large drop. If you find this info useful please give a like, criticisms welcome.
Rsi_overbought
Lesson 1: RSI (Relative Strength Index) - Widely used indicatorWelcome to the first lesson from Lets Go Crypto! We aim to educate people who are struggling to understand indicators, and how to use them when it comes to trading. Hope this is helpful for all of you people out there, who are looking for some kind of lessons. If at the end, you do not understand or have any questions, feel free to ask in comments below.
Today, we will be talking about RSI (Relative Strength Index), which is one of the most used indicators in crypto. There are many people out there who just use RSI to day trade, or even for a long term trading. Here you will learn what is RSI, the Pros and Cons of RSI, how to use it to trade, and the best strategy to follow if you are only using RSI as an indicator. I will be using 4H time frames as an example for the lesson. Lets dig straight into it.
Default RSI indicator Settings: Length (14) .
What is RSI?
Relative Strength Index is one of the many oscillators out there, which basically calculates the strength and weakness of a coin. It compares the up movements versus the down movements over a given period of time. As you can see on the chart, RSI is plotted as a single line. That line when average gains are greater than the average losses, it moves up, and vice-versa when average losses are greater than average gains, the line declines. It is as simple as that. It basically takes into account, the speed and change of price movements.
How do we use RSI?
Using the average gains and losses that RSI calculates, a ratio is created, which makes the line move between 0% to 100% borders. Technically in the crypto world, we have our borders placed at 70% and 30% as you can see in the chart. (Some people also prefer using 80% when its bull market and 20% when its a bear market).
If we see RSI nearing or crossing 70% line, that means that the coin is overbought.
If we see RSI nearing or crossing below 30% line, the coin is in the oversold zone.
When RSI is above 70, that means that a coins' price has been increasing for that period of time, and is not in the overbought zone, which means it could be due for a correction.
When the indicator is below 30, it shows a strong run lower which might be losing momentum, and the price may be due for a rally upwards.
This is not at all hard to understand. I hope everyone is on the same page so far. Make sure you understand this bit.
RSI > Price increasing > If nearing 70 or above > Overbought > (We might see some downward movement)
RSI > Price decreasing > If nearing 30 or below > Oversold > (Price might start going back up)
Easy peasy! Its always easy until it comes to applying it to trading right? Lets have a look at that as well. I am sure after this and a little bit of practice you will be able to use this indicator with full confidence.
Applying RSI in trading
Just spend a minute looking at the chart for me really carefully and match the price action with the RSI movement. You will see that it is very similar. When the price is going up, RSI is going up, and when the price is going down, so is RSI.
When to Buy?
Scenario 1: So we know that when RSI is low (less than or equal to 30), it is oversold, and that usually means that the coin can rally up soon. Our aim should be buying in when RSI is low. So if it has crossed below 30%, wait to buy in until it comes above 30, that is just a confirmation that the trend is changing to bullish. It simple. Read this one more time.
Scenario 2: There is one more situation when it is not necessary to wait for the RSI to go below 30, but be careful with this one. This is called a bullish divergence. It occurs when RSI makes a higher low while the price makes a lower low. The more times this occurs, the more bullish it is considered for a coin. I will be explaining Higher Lows, and Lower Lows for those who do not understand it. Since I am getting out of words here because of the limit, continue reading below..........
how not to play RSI! #SPX #RSIOverbought oversold signals are pretty important when entering a trade, i mostly use it to decide on the position size.
but, it can be seriously misleading in strong trending markets and cause massive losses when used alone.
you can see the massive rally btw 1997-2000 after RSI signaled overbought and kept making new lows...
Bitcoin (BTC) MA Death/Golden Cross Analysis (Part 6) --> +11.1%We crossed the MA a couple of days ago and I sold at $8.7k. I'm publishing this new thread to track my short position. Check out my previous posts to tracking this strategy thus far, we've secured a decent amount of profit in a volatile market.
Segment 3
03/18/2018 - BUY $8,300
03/22/2018 - SELL $8,700
TBD - BUY TBD
Beginning ($): $10,650
Ending ($): $11,100
Beginning (BTC): 1.28
Ending (BTC): TBD
We didn't lock in too much profit vs. USD on this segment, but we're already guaranteed to profit in terms of BTC as well. Just a couple of hours ago, we saw a huge jump in price. There's only $300 of separation between the MA and the price right now, but the RSI is showing overbought. I'm hoping for a reversal so that we're not buying and selling right around the same price point. However, we'll continue to follow the strategy regardless of movement. Again, no one trade will win, but we will win in the long-term.
I'll be posting again when we're looking at a buy signal if it comes today, otherwise I'll get an update out. PM me with any questions that you might have, we're all here to make a profit and improve our trading strategies.
Short opportunity on AUDJPYHi guys,
i've been looking at this pair for a long time now. First, i've missed an opportunity to go long at the 82.00 level. Then, i saw price climbing up toward what would've been our potential target for a big pattern that was completed on the higher timeframe, namely the daily tf. Now, price has touched the 38.2 level of the bigger leg and has shown some signs of weakness. You can see price has gone two times in overbought conditions, and you can also see there's a major structural level looking left, that makes this case safer. Also, price has shown some rejection sign in the form of an engulfing candle on this timeframe.
I'm waiting for a little retracement in order to short it, stops above highs and targets as shown.
If you have any idea/question, feel free to comment below.
Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Using Bearish RSI divergence to help spot tops in BitcoinCrypto Charting Exercise:
An interesting method to spot "tops" for Bitcoin
1 Day $BTC chart in Log view.
Add RSI indicator.
Look for "RSI Divergence" = Where the RSI Chart does the opposite of (diverges from) the price chart.
I drew lines from daily close.
Spot a juicy pattern?
Bunch of clues on USDCADHi guys,
as you can see i'm planning to short USDCAD soon because we've a lot of clues that point in the same direction. First, we have structure looking left (that's a daily level) and that coincides with a psychological flat number (1,29) that could act as resistance too. On the 4hr timeframe you can see we've already completed an AB=CD pattern right in that precise spot, with RSI in overbought condition. As of now, price has created a nice reversal candlestick formation and it's now pulling back where i'm expecting to buy. Order placed at the black line, stops above resistance, targets as shown.
If you have any ideas, comment below.
Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Looking to short USDCADHi guys,
as you can see i'm planning to short USDCAD soon because we've a lot of clues that point in the same direction. First, we have structure looking left (that's a daily level) and that coincides with a psychological flat number (1,29) that could act as resistance too. On the 4hr timeframe you can see we've already completed an AB=CD pattern right in that precise spot, with RSI in overbought condition. As of now, price has created a nice reversal candlestick formation and it's now pulling back where i'm expecting to buy. Order placed at the black line, stops above resistance, targets as shown.
If you have any ideas, comment below.
Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
BTCUSD OverviewMarket started to recover, BTC followed optimistic scenario and grew. It is above the Fib 0.786 resistance level. There are two reasons: many fundamental good news which brought significant volume back and finishing of annual January crisis. However the price is still in the Triangle. BTC will grow till new ATH only when it breaks the Triangle upward. We forecast that it will happen in the following month before this happens we may see another correction wave as there is a rising wedge possible formation. Hold your Bitcoin till the end of March
BTC Sine line price movementBTC price movement may copy sine line. Technical analysis (Triangle pattern) and Fundamental analysis (a lot of good news about adoption and regulation of BTC) confirms this scenario. However, BTC price falls dramatically each January and recovers from mid of February till April. Currently situation is pretty bad as the price went below Fib 0.786 support level and is under the ichi cloud, Stoch RSI is in an overbought state. It seems that it follows pessimistic scenario from the previous analysis. Do not panic and wait till April. To sell before April is senseless. Moreover we expect an entering of institutional investors to the market. It is about time for BTC to recover we are sure in it.
BTC-USD | Short Here | We're going down!As you can see.... we've been stuck inside this channel for.... FOREVER! (at least is feels like forever) If we don't break out of this channel here, we're going back down and continuing the trend that we've been in. I'm praying that this breaks out of this channel so we can start to make some serious gains.... but I DOUBT that will happen. So I would be taking a short position here if I wasn't in the United States... lol Enjoy guys.
This is for information purposes only. Do not make an investment based on what i post here.
Thanks Guys!
XLMBTC Triangle and 5 Elliott impulse wave patternThe price broke Fib 0.382 resistance level and is consolidating now forming 5 Elliott impulse wave pattern which will move the price out of the triangle. Stoch RSI confirms this scenario. If this happens then XLM will grow to the next resistance level of Fib 0.236. This asset has a great potential and is going to return to the previous heights. Buy only when the price consolidates above 0.0000460
AMPBTC Three Drives PatternOn the 1-Day time frame we have a very optimistic scenario which indicates a significant growth in the following month. We examined 30-Minutes charts and found that after harmonic pattern XABCD we may see Three drives formation as RSI and MACD indicate an overbought state. The completion of this pattern will bring the price to the mentioned in the signal targets as fundamentals of the coin are good too. The major update is about to be released on February 13, 2018, their extension application will become a full web-app.
LSKBTC Double Bottom and New UptrendDouble (Triple) Bottom was formed which indicates a strong support level which is confirmed by Ichi cloud. LSK price is in the strong uptrend and will follow our short term targets in the signal. Although RSI indicates overbought zone the demand is much higher than supply so the price should go up with trade volume.
EURAUD counter trend trade set-up for next weekAfter an extensive move last week this pair appears to be a making a double top formation on H4 time frame, RSI is extremely over bought 80 plus and price has already in the fib confluence zone of this move before price broke to the rectangle, red box is the whole confluence zone to take the short opportunity in the lower time zone. If you look at the left of the RSI similar kind of set-up happened where RSI crossed 90 and price fell from there, now even RSI appears to be setting up double formation. So any bearish set-up in lower time frame will be the reason for short with good R&R.
BTC Bye-byeWhen monthly RSI falls at least to the half of the violet zone and stays there for some long time; when all market is exhausted of 1.5-years relentless down race; when all forget about BTC as a money; only then the new shining rise will show up. Show just started, guys. Your TAs based on daily metrics are waste of time. Think years.
Earnings play pt.4BT is currently in a flag pattern, so is the RSI and the CCI.However, BT does not really show that much volatility in recent earnings reports. So, I would only be shorting till the 50 SMA.
Is STEEM (STEEM/BTC) running out of steam ?My first idea !
1D:
! Previous resistance at 0.0061 tested 3 times!
!! Slightly stretched from KJ (thick blue curve), even more from EMA 50 (thin blue curve) which would suggest a need for correction.
!!! New All time high but Bearish RSI, usually not a good sign
!!!! If we correct, cloud is very thin so we could easily go through and start a strong bearish downtrend with very little support until 0.0025.
My eyes are only looking at the thick green line right now... Let's wait for proper confirmation
Let's look at the 1W
Still under the Ichimoku cloud, too thick to break in my opinion
We need a TS/KJ cross and EMA 20/50 as well.
Looking at the RSI, we're already overbought and about the start the fall.
On the 1D, we have good signs for trend reversal.
Looking at time range, we could break that cloud around June-July to really start going up. Potential for STEEM is huge !!!
SPY: Bearish Chart Indicators Show a ~4% Pullback Feb-March 2018Another attempt at a call, since my last Bitcoin bearish call to short (or at least not buy) at the end of December 2017 came correct (See My Last "Idea" Below). This time, I've been slowly looking back at a historical analysis in 2017 (and even beyond) of times that the bullish market had very bearish indicators flashing. Earlier this year in April 2017 and October 2017, when the SPY Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) were all way overbought & started to correct AND simultaneously the MACD indicator crossed over from positive to negative, there was a short-term correction. Each and every time! There are multiple examples if you look back historically that this has happened when the confluence of RSI/CCI Overbought => Correction AND MACD Crossover have led to a selloff (e.g. July 2015, September 2015, December 2015, etc.). Notably, though, the large sell-offs in SPY during August 2015 and June 2016 were ONLY preceded by a CCI Overbought => Correction AND MACD Crossover without RSI Overbought => Correction, so perhaps not all are needed to signify an extremely bearish trend ahead. And as people will note, some sell-off weren't preceded by ANY of this indicators at all.
These pull-back/dips historically have been anywhere from about ~3-5% range (I think, I didn't actually calculate it out). Given that these 3 indicators (RSI/CCI Overbought => Correction, MACD Crossover) are ALL flashing again in SPY at the end of January 2017, especially after the sell-off of the last 2 days on January 29, 2017 and January 30, 2017, I'm hypothesizing that this is the beginning of AT LEAST a ~3-5% range minor correction/pullback. If there is a confluence of other problems (e.g. negative news, negative tech earnings reports (from AAPL, FB, GOOG, AMZN, etc), rising interest rates, flat yield curve, I believe this could be a much bigger selloff than 5%, and could reach even the 10% LARGER Correction. My belief is that the market is at risk of this for potentially the rest of February 2018 and maybe even into March 2018. The increasing volatility in the VIX after being so flat for so long is also worrisome for a pull-back, in my mind.
I'm therefore taking steps to hedge my market positions, pull-back into mostly cash, and potentially buy some puts/make some short plays against SPY, DIA, QQQ and other indexes that I believe will follow the general market downwards in February and March 2018. Good luck to all, whatever your view is!
(DISCLAIMER: I have recently sold most or all my LT call positions in QQQ, SPY, DIA...after making a large profit from these between 9/2017-1/2018. I may enter a short position against QQQ, SPY, DIA in the near future as well, although I do not have any current positions in them as of yet)
Be careful with WTC - don't buy the ATHWTC has so many bearish signals right now I don't even know where to begin.
Volume divergence. WTC is rising on decreasing volume.
RSI divergence. WTC rising despite weakening RSI.
MACD divergence. WTC rising despite weakening RSI.
Then there's the elliot wave analysis, which pretty clearly shows a retrace must be imminent.
Even if you dont believe ANY of that, simple trendline analysis shows that a return to the lower trendline will occur at some point.
If you're buying this... stop.
Possible Double Cup-and-Handle FormationIt looks to me that we already have a real cup-and-handle formation as depicted by the green and purple solid lines. However, it looks to me that the subsequent run-up, roughly depicted by the solid pink line, has lent itself to form another cup-and-handle. This would suggest that the next formation would be a handle sell-off. A short-term sell-off that would form the handle is supported by being within an Ichimoku resistance zone, albeit above the cloud, and by the RSI level which appears to be approaching a cross-over: something that hasn't happened since January 9th. This sell-off would then form the handle (dotted channel), and that suggests a subsequent profit run. The idea of a profit run is further supported by the flipping of the Ichimoku cloud come January 30. This creates an unusual Double-Cup-and-Handle (DCNH) formation which may imply a subsequent bull run that is stronger than a typical cup-and-handle formation. Moreover, a DCNH can be simplified to a single cup-and-handle that forms a larger cup (dotted curve). I suspect that we will see a short-term sell-off followed by very strong upward movement.
Ready to short AUDUSDHi guys,
this is what i'm looking at today. AUDUSD (and also NZDUSD) is facing a strong resistance zone on the daily and weekly chart. Price is showing RSI divergence on the daily timeframe and also an overbought condition on the weekly. With the right confirmation on the lower timeframes, this could be a nice trading opportunity. Keep you updated!
If u have question/ideas, share down below.
Otherwise, see you in the next chart!