ICICI Prudential Life – Turning the Corner?After months of steady decline inside a falling channel, ICICI Prudential Life is showing early signs of reversal. The stock has recently broken out of its channel with a strong bullish weekly candle, closing at ₹571.70 with a +4.5% gain. Volume is picking up, and RSI is curling up above 40 with a bullish divergence—indicating momentum is building. Price is now near a key resistance zone (~₹590–₹610); a clean breakout here could confirm trend reversal.
📊 Financial Snapshot
Net Premium Income: ₹10,169 Cr vs ₹9,465 Cr ⬆️
PAT: ₹226 Cr vs ₹221 Cr (flat YoY)
VNB Margin: Healthy at 26.7%
Embedded Value: ₹47,020 Cr
Solvency Ratio: Strong at 211%
AUM: ₹2.88 Lakh Cr
💡 Why Consider Buying?
Reversal setup after long correction
Attractive risk-reward near base
Steady premium growth, strong solvency
Long-term growth play on India’s underpenetrated life insurance sector
🚫 Risks / Why to Wait:
Resistance at ₹590–₹610 still intact
PAT growth has been flat
Sector sentiment can be sensitive to interest rate trends
🎯 Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: ₹565–575
Target 1: ₹610
Target 2: ₹660
Stop Loss: ₹540
for educational purposes only
Rsidivergence
RSI 101: Revealing the Special Characteristics of RSIWhy does RSI have support and resistance levels at 40 and 60?
Why does divergence happen between RSI and price?
What is RSI momentum?
All the characteristics of RSI (that I know) will be explained here.
Formula and Meaning
If you are using TradingView, you probably already know what RSI is and what "overbought" and "oversold" mean. So, I won’t repeat it here. Instead, I’ll dive deeper into the true nature of RSI, giving you a different perspective.
You can skip the mathematical formula of RSI, it’s already discussed everywhere online. Just remember this ratio table:
Here’s how I explain the table:
At RSI = 50, the average gain equals the average loss (I'll call this the buy/sell ratio). This is a balanced point. Buyers and sellers are equally strong.
At RSI ~ 60 (66.66), the buy/sell ratio = 2/1. Buyers are twice as strong as sellers.
At RSI ~ 40 (33.33), the buy/sell ratio = 1/2. Sellers are twice as strong as buyers.
At RSI = 80, the buy/sell ratio = 4/1. Buyers are four times stronger.
At RSI = 20, the buy/sell ratio = 1/4. Sellers are four times stronger.
The formula shows that when RSI reaches 80 or 20, the buyer or seller is extremely strong — about four times stronger — confirming a clear trend.
At these levels, some Trading strategies suggest placing a Sell or Buy based on the overbought/oversold idea.
But for me, that’s not the best way. The right approach is: when a trend is clearly formed, we should follow it.
I'll explain why right below.
Look at this chart showing RSI changes with the buy/sell ratio:
When RSI > 50:
When RSI < 50:
You can see that the higher RSI goes, the slower it climbs, but the high buy/sell ratio makes price move up faster.
Similarly, when RSI goes lower, it drops slower but price drops faster.
That’s why at overbought (RSI=80) or oversold (RSI=20) areas, you need to be careful. Even a small RSI moving can lead to big price changes, easily hitting your stop loss.
On the other hand, if you follow the trend and wait for RSI to pull back, you will trade safer and more profitably.
RSI Key Levels
Here are some special RSI levels I personally find useful when observing FX:XAUUSD :
(These levels are relative. They might vary with different timeframes or trading pairs. Check historical data to find the right ones for you. On bigger timeframes like M15 or above, the accuracy is better.)
RSI = 20
When RSI hits 20, sellers dominate. This confirms a trend reversal to bearish.
RSI = 80
When RSI hits 80, buyers dominate. This confirms a trend reversal to bullish.
RSI = 40
This is a sensitive level. Sellers start gaining the upper hand (sell/buy = 2/1).
If buyers lose 40, they lose their advantage.
So RSI >= 40 is "buyer territory". In an uptrend, RSI usually stays above 40.
RSI = 40 acts as support in an uptrend.
RSI = 60
Same idea. RSI <= 60 is "seller territory".
RSI = 60 acts as resistance in a downtrend.
40 and 60 are considered the key levels of RSI.
Now you guys know why RSI has support/resistance around 40/60!
RSI Range
As you know, RSI moves between 0 and 100.
Since RSI >= 40 is buyer territory, we can see the relationship between price and RSI:
When RSI stays above 40, price tends to move in an uptrend:
When RSI stays below 60, price tends to move in a downtrend:
When RSI stays between 40 and 60, buyers and sellers are balanced, and price moves sideways in a box:
When RSI is moving, It creates a RSI Range.
Whenever the trend switches between the three states — uptrend, sideways, and downtrend — a Range Shift is formed.
At first, RSI moves in 40-60 range, price moves sideways. A strong price move pushes RSI to 80. Later, RSI stays above 50, helping price grow strongly. When momentum fades, RSI returns to 40-60 and price moves sideways again.
Note:
RSI reflects Dow Theory by showing the stages of accumulation, growth, and distribution.
And as you see, when RSI touches key levels, the trend often pulls it back.
RSI Momentum
Price momentum means how fast price changes.RSI momentum represents the change in the strength between buying and selling forces.
When RSI > 50:
If price falls, RSI shows high momentum — RSI drops fast but price drops slowly.
If price rises, RSI shows low momentum — RSI rises slowly but price rises fast.
For example, at first RSI is above 50.
Price drops from (a) to (b) by 44 units, RSI drops from (Ra) to (Rb) by 25 units.
Later, RSI drops from (Rb) to (Rc) (also 25 units) but price drops from (b) to (c) by 73 units.
When RSI < 50:
If price falls, RSI has low momentum — RSI drops slowly but price falls fast.
If price rises, RSI has high momentum — RSI rises fast but price rises slowly.
RSI and Price Divergence
Divergence happens when price and RSI move in opposite directions:
Price goes up but RSI goes down, or vice versa.
Why does divergence happen?
In a strong downtrend, price forms a bottom at point (1), and RSI drops to level (r1).
When a price pullback happens, price pushes up to a peak at point (2), and RSI also bounces back to level (r2).
Because the downtrend is strong, after completing the pullback (1-2), price continues to make a lower bottom at point (3).
At this point, remember the behavior of RSI momentum when RSI is below 50:
It takes a large price drop (from 2 to 3) to cause a small RSI drop (from r2 to r3).
Meanwhile, even a small price increase (from 1 to 2) causes a large RSI rise (from r1 to r2).
Since the distance (1-2) is smaller than (2-3), but the RSI move (r1-r2) is bigger than (r2-r3), divergence is created.
Divergence shows that the current trend is very strong, not a complete signal of a trend reversal.
(I might share with you how to spot a complete RSI reversal signal in future posts.)
As shown in the example above, after forming bottom (5) and creating a bullish divergence between (3-5) and (r3-r5), price still kept dropping sharply while RSI kept rising.
In these areas, if you keep trying to catch a reversal just based on divergence, you will likely need to DCA or cut your losses many times.
That’s why the most important thing in trading is always to follow the trend.
RSI Exhaustion
RSI Exhaustion happens when RSI keeps getting rejected by a resistance or support zone and can’t break through.
After a strong downtrend, RSI recovers but stalls around the 5x zone.
It tries many times but fails, showing buying power is weakening.
Then the downtrend continues:
Exhaustion near high or low RSI levels creates stronger divergences than exhaustion in the middle range:
Double or triple tops/bottoms on RSI (M or W shapes) basically indicate RSI exhaustion.
RSI Can Identify Trend Strength
In an uptrend:
If RSI pulls back to a higher level before going up again, the trend is stronger.
The pullback should not fall too deep (below 40).
Example:
First rally: RSI drops to 60 before rising again → strong rally (273 units).
Second rally: RSI drops to 50 before rising again → weaker rally (94 units).
Same idea for a downtrend:
If RSI pullbacks to 50 then drops again, the downtrend is stronger than if it pullbacks to 60.
RSI Support and Resistance
Besides 40-60 acting as support/resistance, RSI also reacts to old tops and bottoms it created.
Why does this happen?
RSI is calculated from closing prices.
On a higher timeframe, the candle close price is a high/low or support/resistance price on lower timeframes.
When RSI moves in a trend on a higher timeframe, it maintains a buy/sell ratio, forcing lower timeframe RSI to oscillate within a range.
Example:
On H4, RSI stays above 40 → uptrend.
It makes H1 RSI move between 30-80.
Sharp RSI tops/bottoms react even stronger because they show strong buying/selling forces.
Summary
When looking at the price chart, we can see that price can rise or fall freely without any defined boundaries.
However, RSI operates differently: it always moves within a fixed range from 0 to 100.
During its movement, RSI forms specific patterns that reflect the behavior of price.
Because RSI has a clear boundary, identifying its characteristics and rules becomes easier compared to analyzing pure price action.
By studying RSI patterns, we can make better assumptions and predict future price trends with higher accuracy.
I have shared with you the core characteristics of RSI, summarized as follows:
Besides overbought (80) and oversold (20), RSI respects 40 and 60.
40 is support level in an uptrend. 60 is resistance level in a downtrend.
In an uptrend, RSI stays above 40.
In a downtrend, RSI stays below 60.
An RSI Range-Shift leads to a trend change.
RSI Divergence shows strong trends.
Double or triple tops/bottoms show RSI exhaustion → potential reversals.
The higher the RSI level, the slower it moves, but the faster the price rises.
The lower the RSI level, the slower it moves, but the faster the price falls.
A strong uptrend can be identified when RSI moves within a higher range or shows continuous bearish divergences.
A strong downtrend can be identified when RSI moves within a lower range or shows continuous bullish divergences.
RSI reacts to its old tops and bottoms.
Sharper RSI peaks show stronger selling.
Sharper RSI bottoms show stronger buying.
In the next parts, I’ll show you how to apply these RSI's Characteristics to trend analysis, multi-timeframe analysis, and trading strategies, that you might have never seen before.
I trade purely with RSI. Follow me for deep dives into RSI-based technical analysis and discussions!
RSI 101: Scalping Strategy with RSI DivergenceFX:XAUUSD
I'm an intraday trader, so I use the H1 timeframe to identify the main trend and the M5 timeframe for entry confirmation.
How to Determine the Trend
To determine the trend on a specific timeframe, I rely on one or more of the following factors:
1. Market Structure
We can determine the trend by analyzing price structure:
Uptrend: Identified when the market consistently forms higher highs and higher lows. This means price reaches new highs in successive cycles.
Downtrend: Identified when the market consistently forms lower highs and lower lows. Price gradually declines over time.
2. Moving Average
I typically use the EMA200 as the moving average to determine the trend. If price stays above the EMA200 and the EMA200 is sloping upwards, it's considered an uptrend. Conversely, if price is below the EMA200 and it’s sloping downwards, it signals a downtrend.
3. RSI
I'm almost use RSI in my trading system. RSI can also indicate the phase of the market:
If RSI in the 40–80 range, it's considered an uptrend.
If RSI in 20 -60 range, it's considered a downtrend.
In addition, the WMA45 of the RSI gives us additional trend confirmation:
Uptrend: WMA45 slopes upward or remains above the 50 level.
Downtrend: WMA45 slopes downward or stays below the 50 level.
Trading Strategy
With this RSI divergence trading strategy, we first identify the trend on the H1 timeframe:
Here, we can see that the H1 timeframe shows clear signs of a new uptrend:
Price is above the EMA200.
RSI is above 50.
WMA45 of RSI is sloping upward.
To confirm entries, move to the M5 timeframe and look for bullish RSI divergence, which aligns with the higher timeframe (H1) trend.
RSI Divergence, in case you're unfamiliar, happens when:
Price forms a higher high while RSI forms a lower high, or
Price forms a lower low while RSI forms a higher low.
RSI divergence is more reliable when the higher timeframe trend remains intact (as per the methods above), indicating that it’s only a pullback in the bigger trend, and we’re expecting the smaller timeframe to reverse back in line with the main trend.
Stop-loss:
Set your stop-loss 20–30 pips beyond the M5 swing high/low.
Or if H1 ends its uptrend and reverses.
Take-profit:
At a minimum 1R (risk:reward).
Or when M5 ends its trend.
You can take partial profits to optimize your gains:
Take partial profit at 1R.
Another part when M5 ends its trend.
The final part when H1 ends its trend.
My trading system is entirely based on RSI, feel free to follow me for technical analysis and discussions using RSI.
GOLD - Day Trading with RSI 04/03/2025FX:XAUUSD
Daily Timeframe (D1): Still in a strong uptrend, with RSI and both moving averages are pointing upwards. The WMA45 is above 60.
4-Hour Timeframe (H4): RSI is positioned between the resistance created by WMA45 (current price around 3152) and the RSI 60 support level (current price around 3121).
1-Hour Timeframe (H1): The WMA45 is trending upward, supporting the bullish trend.
Trading Plan: BUY
Entry Zone:
When the RSI on the M15 timeframe is supported at the 50 or 60 levels.
Entry Confirmation:
When M5 completes a wave, or a divergence appears.
Or even when M1 shows divergence.
Stop Loss:
20–30 pips below the M5 low.
Take Profit:
100 pips or R:R ≥ 1:1.
Or when M5 completes its own uptrend.
But be careful when RSI on H4 reaches its own WMA45.
You can check out the indicators I use here: tradingview.com/u/dangtunglam14/
GOLD - Day Trading with RSI 04/02/2025
Weekly and Daily Timeframes (W & D):
GOLD is still in an uptrend, as the RSI's WMA45 is still hovering near the 70 level, and RSI remains above both of its moving averages.
H4 Timeframe:
This timeframe is currently showing a correction. However, it's not yet considered a downtrend because the WMA45 is still in the high region, close to the 70 level. But, RSI has dropped below the WMA45.
At present, the RSI on H4 is facing dynamic resistance from the WMA45 above and has support around the 4x level (43-48). The corresponding temporary price levels are approximately 3128 (resistance) and 3088 (support).
This end-of-uptrend correction on H4 could lead to high price volatility. GOLD may move within a 300–400 pip range (between the resistance from WMA45 and the RSI support around the 4x zone).
H1 Timeframe:
Currently in a downtrend, as RSI is moving below both of its MAs, and the WMA45 has a noticeable downward slope.
H1 also has RSI support at the 30 level (temporary price ~3086) and resistance at WMA45 above (temporary price ~3130).
Since we’re focusing on intraday trading, priority is given to the H1 trend.
Figure 1
Trading Plan: SELL
Entry Zone:
When RSI on M15 approaches upper resistance: levels 50–55 or 65–70.
Confirm Entry:
Conservative/Safe approach: when M5 ends its uptrend and reverses (see example in Figure 1 – M5 ends uptrend when RSI crosses below both MAs).
Or when bearish divergence appears on M5.
Or even earlier, when there’s divergence on M1 and M5's WMA45 flattens out.
Stoploss:
20–30 pips above M5’s recent peak.
Or if RSI on M5/M15 breaks through its previous high.
Take Profit:
100 pips or R:R >= 1:1.
Or when M5’s downtrend ends (when RSI crosses above both MAs).
You can check out the indicators I use here: www.tradingview.com
GOLD - Day Trading with RSI 04/01/2025FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
D and H4 Timeframes:
GOLD is in a strong uptrend.
RSI is operating around the 80 level, indicating that buying pressure is 4 times stronger than selling pressure.
Priority: Trade in the direction of the trend on higher timeframes.
H1 Timeframe:
GOLD is showing signs of a correction: EMA9 has crossed below WMA45, and RSI is positioned below the two MA lines.
Given the current slope of WMA45 on the H4 RSI, this correction is considered minor for now.
Intraday Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy:
If H1 continues to correct: Look for buy entries when RSI H1 reaches previous RSI lows (zones 44, 55).
If H1 breaks the current high (level 3128): Look for buy entries when RSI M15 reaches previous RSI lows (zones 30–40).
At these levels, RSI M5 should end its downward wave (e.g., forming a double-bottom pattern on RSI) or show a price-RSI divergence before entering a buy trade.
Stop Loss (SL):
Set SL 20–30 pips below the entry point's low on the M5 timeframe.
Take Profit (TP):
Follow an R:R ratio of at least 1:1.
Or, take profit when M5 ends its bullish wave:
If RSI M5 forms a double-top pattern or
If RSI M5 crosses below WMA45.
Partial profit-taking is recommended at different stages to optimize returns.
📌 Refer to my scripts for pre-configured RSI indicators. 🚀
Who knows ?SUZB3 is in an uptrend channel on the monthly chart, specifically at the lower edge of this channel, in a region that would indicate a buy, however, at this position on the 2-hour chart it presents a head and shoulders pattern at the end of a downtrend line. Meanwhile, the RSI shows divergence indicating a reversal to an uptrend.
#FARTCOINUSDT is showing bullish momentum📈LONG BYBIT:FARTCOINUSDT.P from $0.3590
🛡 Stop Loss: $0.3465
🕒 Timeframe: 1H
⚡️ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:FARTCOINUSDT.P is showing bullish momentum on the 1-hour timeframe.
➡️ The price has recently broken through the resistance zone at $0.3590, which could serve as an entry point for a long position.
➡️ The chart shows an accumulation zone in the $0.3374–$0.3590 range, where volumes (visible on the volume profile to the left) indicate strong buyer interest.
➡️ The POC (Point of Control) is at $0.3462, confirming support below the current price.
➡️ The price is maintaining an uptrend structure: higher lows and highs are forming, and the breakout at $0.3590 is accompanied by increasing volumes, signaling bullish activity.
➡️ The #RSI (14) indicator on the 1H timeframe is at 65, indicating bullish momentum without being overbought, leaving room for further growth.
🚀 Plan:
➡️ Entry: Buy above $0.3590 after the 1-hour candle closes above this level to confirm the breakout.
➡️ Stop Loss: Set at $0.3465 (below the support zone and POC), which provides a 3.5% risk from the entry point and protects against false breakouts.
➡️ Risk/Reward Ratio: From 1:2 (for TP1) to 1:5.5 (for TP3), making this trade attractive from a risk management perspective.
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
💎 TP1: $0.3660
(nearest resistance level, +1.9% from entry)
💎 TP2: $0.3730
(zone of previous highs, +3.9%)
💎 TP3: $0.3790
(key growth target, +5.6%)
📢 A price consolidation above $0.3590 with sustained volume increases the likelihood of reaching the targets. The $0.3660 and $0.3730 levels may act as profit-taking zones, so monitor price action in these areas.
📢 Risks: If the price drops below $0.3465, it could signal a false breakout and a return to the consolidation zone of $0.3374–$0.3465. In this case, consider reassessing the position.
📢 Market Context: The rise of BYBIT:FARTCOINUSDT.P may be supported by the overall positive sentiment in the crypto market. As of March 19, 2025, BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P is trading steadily above $90,000, creating a favorable backdrop for altcoins.
BYBIT:FARTCOINUSDT.P is showing strength and potential for growth on the 1H timeframe. A confirmed breakout above $0.3590 is your signal to act! We expect a move toward the $0.3660–$0.3790 levels.
Bitcoin’s Monthly RSI Nearing Danger Zone – Time to Sell?The chart above illustrates Bitcoin’s price action alongside the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a monthly timeframe, which helps identify overbought and oversold conditions. Historically, Bitcoin’s major bull cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 coincided with the monthly RSI reaching between 85-95, as highlighted by the blue circles. A downward trendline connects these peaks, suggesting that each cycle has seen slightly lower RSI highs, indicating a potential long-term momentum decline.
Currently, the RSI is approaching this historical resistance zone, signaling that Bitcoin may be nearing its market peak. If this trend continues, it could mark the final phase of the bull run, making it a strategic period for profit-taking. Traders should closely monitor RSI behavior, as a rejection from this level could indicate the start of a correction.
Historically, a monthly RSI of 85-95 has been a strong sell signal, marking the end of Bitcoin’s bull markets. If Bitcoin follows this pattern again, a distribution phase followed by a downturn could be expected.
USDJPYI don't usually trade using the RSI strategy, but for some reason, I decided to take a look at it. What I found was a very strong divergence on the 4-hour timeframe, which has been developing over 72 candles—a significant number. Based on this, I expect this candle to be the reversal candle signaling an upward move toward the targets mentioned above.
Trade safely
Will the EUR/USD recover? - Is the Stock Market on the verge...In this market preview, I go over the EUR/USD, GBP/USD & USD/JPY with the primary focus on the EUR/USD. Will it recover or give out and test lower lows...
Also, ETF's that I am watching and keeping an eye on a potential bearish tone for the stock market.
I also share a small update on Crypto trade MATIC.
As always, good luck and trade safe.
BTC Potential Drop to $72K: 3 Signs Indicating a Trend BreatherBitcoin has been on an incredible run, but I believe we may be heading for a pullback toward $72K. There are three key signs that suggest a breather is due:
Double Top Formation – We've seen a clear double top pattern forming, signaling a potential reversal.
RSI Divergence – The RSI is showing divergence from price action, often a sign that the momentum is weakening.
Overbought Conditions – Bitcoin has been in overbought territory for a while now, suggesting that a correction could be on the horizon.
Keep an eye on these factors as they could play a big role in where BTC goes next. Stay cautious and be prepared for potential volatility.
I hope you find it helpful!
Take care and keep it shiny.
Kina ♥
Bitcoin - preparing for a Mega bullish waveThe weekly chart is bullish for Bitcoin.
It shows a hidden bullish divergence on RSI, indicating that the price trend is likely to continue upward.
Additionally, the chart highlights a double bottom pattern on HTF.
Bitcoin maintaining support at 0.786 Fibonacci will give it the momentum needed to create a new high.
A new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin is expected in the coming weeks.
Best regards Ceciliones🎯
SWFT is showing bullish strength upon breakout of bullish flag!It appears as though the RSI is cooling off and SWFT may consolidate in the .035c-0.030c range before the next leg up....
One thing I have noticed is the price does not consolidate for too long which indicated a whale or two are gobbling up any SWFT they can get their hands on...
Expect a gap up to the top of the ascending channel in the immediate term.
Where are all my Swifties at!!!
If we do see a sell off I dont expect the price to stay in the 0.03c range for very long.
Don't swim against the current, ride the wave & be brave!
GBPAUD BUTTERFLY PATTERN Harmonic Pattern Trading Strategy:
1. Combine patterns with 2-3 confirmations (e.g., MA, BB, RSI, Stoch) for increased accuracy.
2. Implement proper risk management.
3. Limit exposure to 3% of capital per trade.
4. Exercise caution: Not every Harmonic Pattern presents a good trading opportunity.
5. Conduct thorough diligence and analysis before trading.
Disciplined approach = Enhanced edge.
Dollar Vs INR: Dollar clearly Overbought as of now. Dollar Vs Rupee:
Dollar is at 87. Major breakout from the zone but one interesting point to note is the RSI. Relative Strength Index is above 90. Near 91 in fact. These are unsustainably overbought levels. We will see a proper deep correction there sooner than later. Once the Dollar starts to correct, Nifty will not remain bearish.
Anyone who understand RSI will tell you that Dollar is at unsustainable levels. India is the least effected compared to other currencies of emerging markets as well as developed nations. It is in the zone where sustaining itself that high will soon be impossible. That's why in the earlier message. I have written 1 to 4 weeks more pain for Indian markets.
Much also depends on policy announcements of Trump as he takes power. Back Channel diplomacy to avert further damage to India Inc., Might have already started...keeping my fingers crossed. Unreal times ahead. Long Term Vision For India looks unharmed. The dust will start settling in the next few weeks. We can expect dust to settle fully by end of this quarter. After which Bull run can recommence in my opinion.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
ARBUSDTHi guys
The main trend is downward. We have not yet received confirmation of a trend change and the bullish outlook is very weak for now.
But on the daily and four-hour time frames, we have a positive RSI divergence.
And provided that the downward trend line is broken and the resistance range of $0.893 is consumed, the possibility of the continuation of the upward trend is strengthened.
What do you think?
BTC Gaining StrengthOn the 4hr timeframe BTC shows increasing momentum with price making higher lows, and RSI making higher lows - both an indication of gaining momentum.
On the daily timeframe BTC shows hidden bullish divergence as price is making higher lows, while RSI shows lower lows.
Both timeframes point towards an indication that we could be at bottom already.
Get ready for a new year rally!
BITCOIN - Time to be Bearish!The 3-day chart shows a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator.
-A bearish divergence occurs when:
1. Price Action: The asset's price forms higher highs (uptrend).
2. RSI Indicator: The RSI forms lower highs instead of following the price
This divergence suggests that the upward momentum is weakening, even though the price is climbing, which could lead to a potential downtrend or correction.
Based on this a drop to the 80k region is expected, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
This decline perfectly corresponds to the fourth wave of the Elliott Impulse Wave.
Afterward, a significant recovery is expected, representing Bitcoin's final bullish wave in the Elliott Wave cycle (the fifth wave)
My outlook for the chart suggests a decline starting now and lasting until mid-February at most
Best regards Ceciliones🎯
Reversal Trading Strategy Using GOLDEN RSI Divergence Indicator Overview
Reversal trading strategies capitalize on identifying turning points in the market where a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend, or vice versa, occurs. In this post, I will introduce a strategy based on divergence patterns spotted with a custom RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator.
This method enhances traditional RSI analysis by making divergence detection clearer and actionable. By combining it with a strong understanding of price action, traders can gain an edge in timing market reversals effectively.
Key Features of This Strategy
Divergence Analysis: The core of this strategy is to identify bullish or bearish divergences between the RSI and price action.
Custom RSI Indicator: The custom RSI indicator simplifies divergence detection by highlighting critical levels and marking divergence points directly on the chart.
Confluence with Price Action: Reversals are validated using trendlines, support/resistance zones, and candlestick patterns.
Chart Example: S&P 500 Index
In the attached chart:
Bullish Divergence:
The price made lower lows, while the RSI made higher lows (indicated by green arrows).
This divergence signaled weakening bearish momentum and potential reversal.
Entry Point:
A clear breakout above the trendline validated the reversal.
Enter long positions near this breakout level.
Stop Loss:
Place the stop loss just below the recent swing low.
Target Profit:
Aim for the next major resistance zone or use a fixed risk-reward ratio (e.g., 1:2 or 1:3).
How to Spot Divergence
Bullish Divergence:
Price forms lower lows.
RSI forms higher lows.
This indicates waning bearish pressure and a potential upward reversal.
Bearish Divergence:
Price forms higher highs.
RSI forms lower highs.
This suggests weakening bullish pressure and a possible downward reversal.
Why This Strategy Works
Strength of RSI Divergence
RSI divergence reflects the loss of momentum in the current trend. By detecting it early, traders can position themselves ahead of major reversals.
Combining Confluence Factors
The success rate of this strategy increases when RSI divergence aligns with other technical factors like:
Horizontal support or resistance levels.
Trendline breaks.
Volume spikes.
Practical Tips for Using This Strategy
Use Multiple Timeframes: Confirm divergence signals on higher timeframes for stronger setups.
Avoid Overtrading: Only act on clear and validated divergence setups to minimize false signals.
Risk Management: Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on a single trade.
Conclusion
This custom RSI-based divergence strategy is a powerful tool to identify high-probability reversal setups. When combined with proper risk management and confluence analysis, it can significantly improve trading outcomes.
Start experimenting with this strategy on your demo account and refine your approach before deploying it in live markets. If you have questions or want to discuss this further, feel free to comment below!