EURJPY Analysis - Bullish - Trade 05EUR/JPY Analysis Overview
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1. Seasonality
EUR: Strong seasonal buy signal for first week of December. Historically, EUR tends to perform well during the early part of December, particularly as year-end market dynamics drive demand for European assets.
JPY: Seasonal performance is mixed to weak in first week of December, suggesting potential weakness for JPY in this period.
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2. COT Report
EUR:
COT RSI: At the bottom (0%) for 52 weeks, 26 weeks, and 13 weeks, signaling an oversold condition, suggesting a buy setup for EUR.
Non-commercial Positioning: Non-commercial long positions are decreasing, short positions are increasing, but net non-commercial is still decreasing. This indicates that while there may be some sell-side pressure, the market may be nearing a reversal, with less aggressive short interest.
COT Index: At the bottom (0%) for 3-year and 1-year periods, indicating a strong potential for EUR to rise from this point.
JPY
COT RSI: At the middle, indicating a neutral stance. This is less of a concern compared to other currencies, but it points to a market that is less bullish on JPY.
Non-commercial Positioning: Non-commercial long positions are increasing, short positions are also rising, and net non-commercial is decreasing. This suggests that JPY has some strength but is facing growing pressure from increased short positions.
COT Index: Neutral positioning, which does not indicate any clear bullish or bearish bias.
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3. Fundamental Analysis
LEI (Leading Economic Indicators)
Global: Increasing LEI suggests positive global economic momentum, supporting the EUR.
EUR: Positive LEI, indicating economic growth and improving outlook for the Eurozone.
JPY: Decreasing LEI, signaling a potential slowdown or economic stagnation in Japan, which is bearish for JPY.
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Endogenous Factors
EUR: Increasing endogenous factors, indicating positive growth in the Eurozone. Economic recovery is likely to continue through the end of the year, supporting EUR strength.
JPY: Mixed to increasing endogenous factors, suggesting some potential for JPY to strengthen but not strongly enough to outperform the EUR.
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Exogenous Factors
EURJPY: Exogenous factors support a buy EUR, sell JPY strategy due to the relative strength of EUR and the weakness in JPY from factors like EURJPY = Buy and EURUSD = Buy signals in exogenous correlations.
EUR/JPY Pairs: Strong support for EUR in the cross-pair comparisons (EURJPY = Buy) and weak performance from JPY, confirming a bullish stance for EURJPY.
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4. Technical Analysis
RSI Divergence: The RSI for EUR/JPY is not in overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside.
Support Levels: There is days support level from which the pair has bounced and is likely to continue upward if it maintains above these levels.
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Bias: Long EURJPY
Conclusion: The combination of favorable seasonality, positive COT signals for EUR, strong fundamental support from global and Eurozone LEIs, and bullish technical indicators positions EUR/JPY for further upside. The relative weakness of JPY and its mixed economic signals reinforce the bias to go long on EUR/JPY.
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Trade Plan
Entry: 157.241
SL: 156.020
TP: 158.462
Rsidivergence
UPL Ltd. (NSE: UPL) AnalysisOverview: UPL Ltd. is currently trading at ₹545.50, showing signs of consolidation near its short-term moving averages. The price is poised at a critical level with a potential for either a breakout or a breakdown, depending on market dynamics and volume activity.
Technical Insights:
1.Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support: ₹528 (marked by recent lows and a strong demand zone).
Key Resistance: ₹549.50 (current level) and ₹584.05 (previous swing high and significant supply zone).
2.Volume Profile:
The visible range volume profile indicates a concentration of volume between ₹540-₹550, suggesting this zone as a pivot for future price action.
A breakout above ₹549.50 could attract higher volumes, pushing the stock towards ₹584.
3.Moving Averages:
The stock is near its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating a neutral short-term trend.
A clear break above the 200-day EMA would signal a shift in momentum towards the bulls.
4.RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is hovering around 50, indicating a lack of strong momentum. A breakout above resistance could drive RSI towards overbought territory, confirming bullishness.
Scenarios:
Bullish Case: A breakout above ₹549.50 with high volumes could see the stock targeting ₹584.05 in the short term. Sustained momentum may lead to further upside towards ₹600.
Bearish Case: Failure to sustain above ₹549.50 might result in a pullback to ₹528. A breakdown below ₹528 could open doors for lower levels, around ₹510.
Trading Plan:
Entry:
Bullish: Above ₹550 for targets of ₹584 and ₹600.
Bearish: Below ₹528 for targets of ₹510.
Stop-Loss:
Bullish: ₹535.
Bearish: ₹540.
Final Thoughts: UPL Ltd. is at a crucial level with a well-defined risk-reward setup. Traders should wait for confirmation of direction with strong volume support before taking positions. Monitor global agrochemical sector trends and news for potential catalysts.
Zydus Lifesciences (NSE:ZYDUSLIFE)Overview: Zydus Lifesciences is currently at an interesting juncture, with signs of a potential reversal from recent lows. The price action suggests a possible recovery towards higher resistance levels, supported by technical indicators and market sentiment. Nomura's revised price target of ₹1,030, while maintaining a Neutral rating, aligns with this view.
Key Levels to Watch:
Current Price: ₹966.65
Immediate Support (SL): ₹902.55
Key Resistance Zones: ₹1,008.35, ₹1,041.45, and ₹1,102.15
Technical Analysis:
Volume Profile: The visible range volume profile shows significant accumulation near ₹1,000, which could act as a strong magnet for the price.
Moving Averages: The stock has started reclaiming its short-term moving averages. A breakout above the 200-day MA would confirm bullish momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is trending upwards, indicating improving bullish momentum. Divergence suggests a potential reversal.
Price Action: The formation of higher lows near ₹949 reinforces the possibility of a short-term recovery.
Trading Strategy:
Entry Zone: Between ₹950 and ₹970, as the stock shows stability near support levels.
Stop-Loss: Strict stop-loss at ₹902.55 to limit downside risk.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹1,008.35
Target 2: ₹1,041.45
Extended Target: ₹1,102.15
Risk Management:
Position size will depend on risk tolerance, ensuring a Risk-Reward ratio of at least 1:2.
Avoid chasing the price above ₹970 if momentum wanes.
Final Thoughts: Zydus Lifesciences presents a favorable risk-reward scenario with clear technical signals for a rebound. However, macroeconomic factors and sector performance will play a critical role in sustaining the move. Traders should monitor price action near the resistance zones closely for signs of continuation or rejection.
SUPERSuper has been powering through the uptrend since the beginning of September. Today, the chart indicates strong buying volume that strives to break resistance to the next resistance level. There is a red candle stick with a long wick and shorter body and a green candlestick with a long wick and longer body, indicating future bullish momentum. Indicators show lots of buying power, which will help with the upward trend for a future breakout.
Support - $1.24
Testing Resistance/Possible Support - $1.35
Resistance - $1.42
Fear & Greed Index (Binance) - 65 Greed
Tata Motors (Daily Timeframe) AnalysisChart Pattern & Trend:
Primary Trend: The stock previously followed a rising channel pattern, peaking near ₹1,176.50. After breaking the channel's lower boundary, it entered a significant downtrend.
Current Trend: Bearish, as the stock has consistently been making lower highs and lower lows.
Fibonacci Levels:
The Fibonacci retracement tool highlights key levels:
61.8% Level (₹880.35): This level acted as a minor support before breaking down.
50% Level (₹788.85): The stock is hovering around this level, attempting to stabilize.
38.2% Level (₹697.40): If the downtrend continues, this could be the next key support.
23.6% Level (₹584.20): A deeper correction might test this level in a prolonged bearish scenario.
Volume Analysis:
Declining volumes suggest weakening momentum on the downside.
A volume spike at key support levels could indicate buying interest.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is in the oversold zone or nearing it, indicating potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: ₹880 (61.8% Fibonacci) and ₹900 are immediate resistance zones.
Support: ₹788 (current level) and ₹697 (38.2% Fibonacci) are critical supports.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Reversal: A breakout above ₹880 with increasing volumes could signal the beginning of a recovery.
Continued Bearishness: A breakdown below ₹788 could lead the stock toward ₹697 and ₹584.
Trading Strategy:
For Long Positions: Look for reversal patterns around ₹788 or ₹697, supported by RSI divergence and volume confirmation.
For Short Positions: Consider selling near resistance levels like ₹880 with a stop-loss above ₹900.
Ethereum (ETH/USD): Bullish Momentum Building Ethereum is currently trading within a rising channel pattern, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Here's the breakdown:
1.Support Levels:
Strong support at $3,080 (marked as 4H Support) has held firm, preventing further downside.
The ascending trendline is providing consistent upward pressure.
2.Resistance Zones:
Immediate resistance at $3,143 (30m Resistance).
Key level to watch is $3,224 (4H Resistance), which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel.
3.Volume & RSI:
Volume is gradually increasing, indicating renewed buyer interest.
RSI is rising from oversold levels, supporting a bullish outlook.
4.Target Levels:
A breakout above $3,143 could propel ETH towards $3,224, the next significant resistance.
Bullish Scenario:
If ETH holds above $3,114 and breaks $3,143 decisively, expect a swift move toward $3,224. Beyond this, a continuation within the channel could aim for $3,280.
Risk management is key—watch the $3,080 support zone closely for invalidation of the bullish setup.
Gold’s Got Drama: Is the Shine Fading? Let’s Dive In!🚨 Gold’s Got Drama: Is the Shine Fading? Let’s Dive In! 💰
1️⃣ Medium-Term Trendline: The OG Support!
This trendline has been holding like your favorite pair of jeans—reliable and never letting you down. But here’s the tea ☕: the price has slipped below it and is now knocking on its door like, “Hey, can I come back in?”
🔑 Key Point: If the door slams shut (aka, the trendline holds as resistance), we’re looking at some spicy bearish action. Keep your eyes on this!
2️⃣ Price Making Higher Highs, But…
🎵 "The higher you climb, the harder you fall…" Gold’s been flexing with those higher highs, but the RSI isn’t buying it. It’s like Gold is posting gym selfies 📸 while secretly skipping leg day. The disconnect is real.
❗ Warning: When price says "up" but RSI says "nah," the universe is screaming reversal incoming.
3️⃣ RSI Bearish Divergence: Red Flag Alert 🚩
RSI is the wingman who sees the danger before you do. It’s whispering, “Bro, this trend is running on fumes.” Lower highs on the RSI + higher highs on price = the perfect cocktail for a pullback. 🍹
📉 Translation: Momentum is fizzling, and buyers are running out of juice. The bears might just be warming up. 🐻
4️⃣ Price Retesting the Trendline: Playing Hard to Get 😏
After breaking up with the trendline, the price is back, asking for a second chance. Will the trendline say, “No thanks, I’ve moved on” and reject it as resistance? 👋
💡 Pro Tip: If the price gets rejected here, it’s basically like Gold saying, “I’m tired of this relationship. I’m heading lower.”
5️⃣ Sell Big if It Breaches Again: The Money Shot 💥
If the price slips below the trendline again, it’s game on for the bears. That’s your signal to bring out the big guns—just don’t forget your stop-loss armor. ⚔️
🚨 Action Plan:
Sell below the trendline breakdown.
Targets? Look for levels like $2,400 or lower.
Keep stops tight above the retested trendline. Remember: trading isn’t a free-for-all. 🎯
TL;DR: Gold’s at a Crossroads ⚖️
This chart is giving all the signals of a potential reversal. 1️⃣ RSI divergence says momentum is tired. 😴
2️⃣ Price retesting the trendline screams, “Decision time!” 🕒
3️⃣ A breakdown could mean a juicy shorting opportunity. 📉
💥 Final Thoughts: Don’t YOLO into this trade. Wait for confirmation. Be disciplined. And as always, let’s bag those profits like a boss. 💼💸
What’s your move? Are you riding the bear train or waiting for Gold to prove it’s still got its shine? Let me know, and let’s crush it! 🚀
Gold long - Fear of WW3After news was released that the sill in power Biden administration allows Ukraine to use long range missiles to attack Russia, I would expect a fear reaction, leading to a greater demand for Gold.
Besides, Gold re-tested a strong resistance at about 2500 and the chart shows a strong RSI divergence.
AU Small Finance Bank - Technical Analysis Update and Key LevelsChart Overview:
The price action for AU Small Finance Bank shows it has been moving within a rising channel for the past few years, currently testing key support levels. The bank recently saw a price downgrade from Nomura, which adjusted the target price to ₹670, retaining a neutral rating. This adjustment reflects some cautious sentiment among analysts.
Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracement:
Channel Support - The stock is currently near the lower boundary of the long-term rising channel, a crucial area where it previously found support.
Fibonacci Levels - The stock has pulled back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around ₹565.65 from its recent highs, which often acts as a strong support level in technical setups. A further breakdown could push it towards the 50% retracement at ₹492.40, a potential next support.
Resistance - On the upside, resistance lies around the upper channel boundary and recent highs near ₹670-₹700, which aligns with Nomura’s target.
MACD Indicator:
The MACD currently shows a weakening momentum on the weekly chart, hinting at possible bearish pressure. A recovery in MACD or a bullish crossover could indicate a return to upward momentum.
RSI Analysis:
The RSI is approaching the oversold region. A bounce from this area might signal potential for reversal if accompanied by strong buying volume.
Conclusion:
AU Small Finance Bank is at a critical support level within a broader uptrend channel. Holding above ₹565-₹570 could lead to a rebound towards the upper end of the channel, with ₹670-₹700 as potential targets. However, if the price fails to hold, watch for the ₹492 level for possible support. The current technical setup suggests caution, especially with Nomura's neutral outlook.
USD/CAD Bearish CorrectionKey 4HR Resistance Coming up. Expecting up to a .010536 correction before pushing through 1.39500. Bear Divergency presenting itself on RSI. Expecting correction to take place. Will enter trade at break of rising wedge pattern. Will not think trade is gone if liquidity grab pushes price above the wedge.
NIFTY50 || RSI positive divergence As mention in my previous idea, the recent rally was indeed a 'Dead Cat Bounce' as NIFTY50 has experienced another significant drop. However, examining the charts above reveals positive RSI divergence in both the 2-hour timeframe (TF) and the daily timeframe (DTF), with NIFTY reversing from a marked support zone.
For the next bull run to be confirmed, NIFTY should hold above today’s low and meet the following two criteria:
1. The index begins trading above the 20 EMA band.
2. The RSI surpasses the 70 mark.
This setup could indicate a more sustainable upward trend if both conditions are fulfilled.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and it’s essential to perform your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Essential principles for traders:
1. Be Disciplined, Avoid FOMO: Maintain a disciplined approach to avoid impulsive decisions based on the "fear of missing out" (FOMO), which can lead to risky trades.
2. Risk and Reward Management: Always assess potential rewards relative to risks before entering a trade. Proper risk management ensures long-term success by limiting losses on any single trade.
3. Follow Stop Losses: Calculate and set a stop loss for every trade to protect against significant losses. Make it a habit to adhere to it without exception, even if the market seems to be in your favor.
4. Journal Your Trades: Maintain a trading journal to track decisions, wins, and losses. Analyzing past trades can help improve future strategies and identify patterns in behavior or biases.
5. Master One Strategy Before Expanding: It’s beneficial to focus on mastering a single trading strategy before exploring others. Once consistent, you can broaden your approach to diversify risk and opportunities.
6. Control Emotions: Emotions, especially greed and fear, can cloud judgment. Cultivating a mindset that balances confidence and caution is key to maintaining objectivity.
MAZDOCK Breaks Downtrend Channel After Securing Major OrderMazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd (NSE: MAZDOCK) has shown a strong price action today, breaking out of the downward trend channel after securing a significant order worth ₹1.22 billion from Maharashtra State Power Generation. This news has spurred bullish sentiment, driving the stock up by +4.55% to ₹4,472.40.
Technical Insights:
Downtrend Channel Breakout: The stock has successfully broken out of the descending channel that has been intact since early July, signaling a potential reversal of the downtrend.
Key Support Levels: The stock bounced from a strong support level at ₹4,248.30, which held firm despite recent downward pressure.
Resistance Levels : Immediate resistance lies at ₹4,714.40, where the stock previously faced selling pressure in late September. A breakout above this level could push the stock towards ₹5,147.20 and then ₹5,555.05.
Volume and Momentum: The recent price surge is accompanied by increased volume, suggesting that the bullish move is supported by strong buying interest. RSI is moving upward, currently near 60, indicating room for further upward movement before overbought levels are reached.
Fundamental Catalysts : The order from Maharashtra State Power Generation strengthens Mazagon Dock’s business outlook, providing long-term revenue visibility and boosting investor confidence.
Outlook: If the stock manages to sustain above ₹4,248.30, it could see further upside in the short-to-medium term, targeting the next resistance at ₹4,714.40 and beyond. However, a failure to hold above this breakout level may see the price retest support around ₹4,000.
Crude Oil (CL1!): Why We’re Still Expecting Lower LowsAt the end of last week, we fine-tuned our Crude Oil outlook, and we are still expecting lower lows to take out the sell-side liquidity below. Our limit order at $63.23 remains valid, even after last week’s pump, which was driven primarily by rising tensions and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Oil gained 13% over five sessions following Iran’s attack, as traders feared Israel’s response might target Iran’s oil infrastructure, potentially cutting into the country’s 1.7 million barrels per day of exports. There are also concerns that a broader war in the oil-rich Persian Gulf could threaten nearly a third of global oil output. However, the geopolitical risk premium may be fading due to Israel’s delayed response.
The geopolitical risk premium has an unclear and unpredictable expiration. When that moment comes and is not supported by real, fundamental factors—such as a substantial supply shortage due to the conflict—the upward movement in oil prices will not be sustainable. The longer this takes, the more the price increase will slow and potentially reverse, which is exactly what we are starting to see in the chart. While Crude Oil respected the 61.8% Fibonacci level almost perfectly, it found stronger resistance at the POC just above that level. Given the bearish RSI divergence, we continue to expect Oil to move lower, provided the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further.
GBPUSD Long 11/10/2024Asset Class: Forex
Income Type: Weekly
Symbol: GBPUSD
Trade Type: Long
Trends:
Short Term: Down (1H, 4H)
Long Term: Up (Daily)
Set-Up Parameters:
Entry: 1.30616
Stop: 1.29970
TP1 1.32519 (3:1)
Trade idea:
4h DBR at breakout,
Downtrend Reversal to Uptrend
RSI oversold and showing strong Divergence.
!!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry.
Trade management:
**When price hits 1:1 or T1, consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback.
**Disclaimer**:
The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
EURUSD - Technical Analysis [Short Setup]🔹 EURUSD Analysis on 1HR chart
- The current Trend is BULLISH
- there is Bearish divergences
-Rising Wedge reversal pattern is form
🔹 Trade Plan
- Entry Level = 0.67295
- Stop Loss = 1.11500
- TP1 = 1.11030
- TP2 = 1.10790
🔹 Risk Management
- First TP is 1:1
- Second TP is 1:2
🔹 How to Take Trade?
- Only risk 2% of your portfolio
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:1 RR
- Take 1% risk entry with 1:2 RR
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GBPNZD Bearish DivergenceThe market has responded to a bearish divergence on the 1H chart, leading GBPNZD to pull back from a key resistance zone. After reaching the strong resistance level of 2.12700, the market formed a daily long-tailed bar, signaling a rejection of that level. Given the overall bearish trend and the appearance of a large bearish candle, the market is likely to continue pulling back toward support levels. It may drop further from the resistance zone and potentially break out of the upward channel as it aims to test those support areas. The target is the support level around 2.10500
Why the USD is about to rally... See chart below please.
I would not necessarily listen to certain You-Tubers who write-off important momentum indicators like Stochastics & RSI.
My observations of both is that they are wonderful at telling me what is overbought & oversold. When a commodity, currency or stock is in either of these phases, massive & fast swings in price can occur as price comes out of the overbought (shorting) and oversold (buying) conditions.
The timeframe of the Stochastic and RSI which I've noticed has the most power and punch with respect to the above is the Weekly but sometimes the Weekly & Daily & 4HR RSI/Stochastics cross-up (x-up on 30/20 respectively) on their zones (buy) or cross-down (x-down 70/80 respectively) on their zones (short-sell). You really need to see the indicators tick-up (buy) or tick-down (sell) firmly through their respective zones (RSI 30/70) STOCH 20/80).
The following chart is the Weekly for the USDX. The RSI looks to be really getting under price & packing a big momentum-punch upwards soon. Plus the Stochastics Weekly is looking to cross up on its 20 zone at the same time. When they cross-up and if the Daily simultaneously crosses up it will provide a lot of upward price movement in USD and its index USDX.
I have been saying for about a week now that a rally is coming for the USD. This chart is the confirmation.
Toncoin hi guys
On the price chart, when we still hold the support area of $4.46, and the LL is not made for us, we cannot expect a bearish trend.
If the $4.46 support range is fully consumed, a bearish scenario is likely.
Right now, the bullish scenario weighs more for us. And if the $7.95 resistance area is completely consumed, the bullish mentality will be reinforced for us.
what do you think!?
Second Chance Shorting Opportunity on EURUSDIf you’re looking for a second chance to short EURUSD, there’s a promising setup involving a Type 2 Bearish Shark Pattern with RSI Divergence. Let’s break it down.
Current Overview:
- Type 2 Bearish Shark Pattern:
- What It Means: The first target has already been achieved. This provides clarity on the first target but might reduce participation since the initial group of traders who profited may not re-engage.
- RSI Divergence:
- Signal: This divergence adds another layer of confirmation, especially for traders who rely on resistance and RSI divergence as their entry signals.
Strategy:
- Second Chance Entry: This setup offers a second opportunity to short EURUSD, with the RSI divergence potentially attracting a new wave of traders.
- Profit Factor: The strong profit factor in this trade is what drew me in, despite the potential for reduced participation from the initial group of sellers.
Final Thoughts:
While there might be fewer sellers this time around, the RSI divergence could bring in new participants, making this a solid second chance trade. Always keep an eye on your signals and manage your risk effectively.
What’s your take on this setup? Are you planning to jump in, or do you see other opportunities? Share your thoughts and strategies below!
Happy trading, everyone! 🚀