Trendline meetsOn the Daily Chart (right), we have the potential Bullish Flag Pattern forming. If Flag Pattern didn't happen, a retest on the support line at 1.1937 with an RSI Divergence gives traders who are looking for a buying opportunity a push to enter the trade.
On the 4-hourly chart(left), the parallel channel meets at the same price region of the daily chart at 1.1932, which definitely brings me interest in waiting for a retest and waiting for a buying opportunity.
Rsidivergence
MKRUSDTHello dear friends
Due to the negative divergence of the RSI in the daily time frame, the possibility of completing the bullish wedge pattern at the end of the uptrend has been strengthened.
🔍 If the range of $719 is completely consumed, the possibility of reaction to the range of $806 will be strengthened and we can expect the continuation of the downward trend to the range of $605 and $536.
❗️❗️❗️ Note that if the $932 resistance range is completely consumed, the above view will expire.
We would be happy to hear your comments
How to Trade With Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicator
Hey traders,
Relative strength index is a classic technical indicator.
It is frequently applied to spot a market reversal.
RSI divergence is considered to be a quite reliable signal of a coming trend violation and change.
Though newbie traders think that the application of the divergence is quite complicated, in practice, you can easily identify it with the following tips:
💠First of all, let's start with the settings.
For the input, we will take 7/close.
For the levels, we will take 80/20.
Then about the preconditions:
1️⃣ Firstly, the market must trade in a trend ( bullish or bearish )
with a sequence of lower lows / lower highs ( bearish trend ) or higher highs / higher lows ( bullish trend ).
2️⃣ Secondly, RSI must reach the overbought/oversold condition (80/20 levels) with one of the higher highs/higher lows.
3️⃣ Thirdly, with a consequent market higher high / lower low, RSI must show the lower high / higher low instead.
➡️ Once all these conditions are met, you spotted RSI Divergence.
A strong counter-trend movement will be expected.
Also, I should say something about a time frame selection.
Personally, I prefer to apply it on a daily time frame, however, I know that scalpers apply divergence on intraday time frames as well.
❗️Remember, that it is preferable to trade the divergence in a combination with some price action pattern or some other reversal signal.
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
A buying and shorting opportunityA buying opportunity and shorting opportunity present on the EURUSD trade, which would you take?
On the higher timeframe(right), there is a buying opportunity base on the Bullish Shark Pattern that is completing at 1.0519. Although the trade is within the Buy Zone(blue box), a retest at 1.0519 with an RSI Divergence is preferred.
On the 4-hourly chart, the Bearish Flag Pattern is on the move. The way I'll trade it is to wait for a retest at 1.0666 with an RSI Divergence.
Both setups are trend trading; which trade would interest you?
Aggressive Shorting Opportunity within the Sell ZoneAn aggressive shorting opportunity present itself within the sell zone.
Shorting is consider trend trading in this trading setup, so why does it consider as aggressive?
That is because the market is now traded on the tip of the box. It presents the Best Profit Factor(Reward:Risk) but in the most risky setup(very close in breaking the Sell Zone).
One can choose to stay out of the trade.
BCHUSDTHello Dear friends
Currently, the positive divergence of the RSI combined with the downtrend line on the daily time frame has strengthened the possibility of completing a bearish wedge pattern.
To form an upward trend similar to the drawn scenario, we have two conditions: the complete consumption of the $108.9 range and the maintenance of the $87 range.
If the previous price floor ($87) is consumed, the possibility of completing the descending corner pattern is weakened.
We would be happy to hear your comments
My Ultimate Trade for the WeekMy Ultimate Trade for the Week falls into the hands of the Head and Shoulders Pattern on the daily chart(right).
The Bullish Bat Pattern(left) is the perfect setup for me to achieve Low Risk, High Returns trade; however, it is unlikely to happen as the Bat Pattern must be completed by Monday, 20 Feb, 7 am or 12 pm(SGT).
The next sensible setup would be the potential Bullish Flag Pattern that goes into an over-extension period.
the long wait is overPatience is required if you want to be successful in trading. The consolidation on the 4-hourly chart took sometime before the market finally spiked up and completed the Shark Pattern.
This is the only possible entry price on this Bearish Shark Pattern and should you decide to engage the trade, do note that the trade will be carry over the weekend.
CRVUSDTHello Dear friends
It seems that at the end of the downward trend of the daily time frame, due to the positive divergence of the RSI, the probability of completing a downward wedge pattern is high.
If the current rising trend is above the $0.81 range, we can expect the completion of the pattern and the formation of a rising trend, provided that the $0.378 area is maintained.
We would be happy to hear your comments
BTCUSDTHello my dear friends
Looking closer at Bitcoin, the four-hour timeframe
We have an ascending wedge pattern at the end of the uptrend, which is accompanied by a negative divergence. But the support area of $22,213 has not been fully consumed, due to the fact that this area is not consumed, there is a possibility that the increasing trend will continue to higher areas.
But if the range of $22,213 is consumed, our wedge pattern is valid and we can expect the formation of a downward trend similar to the drawn scenario.
We would be happy to hear your opinion.
FTMUSDTHello dear friends
In the daily time frame, by reaching the resistance range of $0.5312, a Cypher harmonic pattern has been formed. A negative divergence of the RSI is not associated with this harmonic.
If the support range of $0.35 is completely consumed, the possibility of continuing the downward trend to the price area of $0.2424 can be considered.
Until the $0.5312 range is fully consumed, we have no intention of forming an uptrend in the medium term.
In the four-hour time frame, the RSI indicator has issued a negative divergence compared to the previous price ceiling.
We would be happy to hear your comments
Low Risk and High Return TradesOn the right(Daily Chart) is the main highlight of the week. Having the Double-Headed Head and Shoulders trading setup that fulfils my trading filters for Head and Shoulders.
That being said to engage a trade-off, the Daily Chart is something I seldom do.
I'm looking for a buying opportunity of a lower timeframe, such as the Bullish Gartley Pattern on the intra-day timeframe, the 15-minute chart to engage this trade and extend my target, known as my in-house combo trade, trading management.
In this instance, I will have a much lower-risk and insane high-profit potential and the profit factor will be off the chart.
ADAUSDTHello Dear friends
happy new year :D
On the daily time frame, we have the positive divergence of the RSI, which has strengthened the possibility of forming a bearish wedge pattern at the end of the bearish trend.
The current trend is likely to continue up to the $0.23 range. In case of breaking the downward trend line and maintaining the support range of $0.19, we can expect the formation of an increasing trend up to the specified limits.
We would be happy to hear your comments
EURUSD Alert: RSI Divergence and Upcoming Rate DecisionsThe EURUSD has been on an upward trajectory for quite some time now, but the recent price action on the 4-hour chart has raised some concerns. A RSI divergence has been observed, which is usually a bearish signal. As a result, caution is advised for traders who are currently holding long positions in the pair.
The upcoming rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are likely to have a significant impact on the EURUSD. The FED is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, while the ECB is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points. These rate hikes will have a direct impact on the strength of the US dollar and the euro, respectively.
It's important to keep a close eye on the trendline and support levels that have been drawn up on the chart. If the price of the EURUSD bounces off the support level, it could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. However, if the price breaks below the support level, it could lead to further downside.
In conclusion, the EURUSD is facing some uncertainty in the short term due to the upcoming rate decisions and the bearish signal on the 4-hour chart. Traders should stay vigilant and closely monitor the trendline and support levels to make informed trading decisions. With the FED expected to raise rates by 25 basis points and the ECB expected to raise rates by 50 basis points, the next few days could be critical for the EURUSD. Good luck traders!
Check out my previous post "Breaking Down The FX Market: What You Need To Know" for a comprehensive video analysis.
HOW IT WORKS: RSI (Relative Strength Index) IndicatorThe RSI is a popular momentum indicator used in technical analysis. It was originally developed by a mechanical engineer turned technical analyst J. Welles Wilder Jr.
It was first published in a 1978 book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems” and in Commodities Magazine (Futures magazine) in June’s 1978 issue.
Today the RSI is one of the most popular indicators used to measure the speed and change of price movements.
In other words, it measures the strength of its trend direction (up, down and sideways) on any market by monitoring the changes in its closing price.
THE MAKE UP
The RSI is a line graph that moves between two extremes…
On the vertical axis (Y-Axis) the RSI line moves up and down in a range between 0 and 100.
NOTE: As the indicator is between a range, it is considered a closed indicator.
On the horizontal axis (X-Axis), the RSI line moves to the right which is plotted as time.
NOTE: You can choose your own time frame i.e. days, hours, minutes etc…
For all you technical boffins…
If you want to know how the RSI is calculated, I’ve saved this at the end of the article.
As a trader you won’t need to worry about the maths at all.
Three trading signals you’ll use with the RSI
1. Overbought and Oversold levels
2. Patterns and Trend lines
3. Bullish and Bearish Divergences
Trading signal 1:
Overbought and Oversold levels
When we see the market’s price move up, this means the buyers are outweighing the sellers.
And the more higher closing prices we see, on a market, the higher the RSI line moves…
When we see the market’s price drop, this means the sellers outweigh the buyers.
And the more lower closing prices we see, on a given market, the lower the RSI line moves…
However…
If the buying continues at an unsustainable rate, the RSI will reach a point that traders call OVERBOUGHT (top heavy).
This is where we could start to expect the price to drop from these levels and for the market to enter into a correction (dip).
If the selling volume continues at an unsustainable rate, the RSI will reach a point that traders call OVERSOLD (undervalued).
This is where we could start to expect the price to turn up from these levels and for the market to enter into a recovery (upside).
Now that you understand overbought and oversold terms, let’s explain what I mean with the RSI chart.
Overbought RSI: 70 (Sell opportunity)
When you see the RSI line touch or cross above 70 (Red horizontal line), this is considered an overbought situation.
At this point, traders may start to anticipate that the rising trend is about to end.
Traders may then start to prepare to sell and short their positions, as they believe the market’s price has run up too much.
If the market then turns down and starts to drop in price, the RSI line will drop below 70 and head back to equilibrium at 50 (Black horizontal line).
Oversold RSI: 30 (Buy opportunity)
When you see the RSI line touch or cross below 30 (Green horizontal line), this is considered an oversold situation.
At this point, traders may start to anticipate that the falling trend is about to end.
Traders may then start to buy (go long) their positions, as they believe the market’s price has dropped too much.
If the market then turns up from the 30 mark and starts to rise in price, the RSI line will move back to equilibrium at 50 (Black horizontal line).
Trading signal #2:
Trend lines & Patterns
The second way to spot buying and selling trade ideas is with trend lines and patterns.
Uptrend confirmation
To confirm the strength of the market’s uptrend, you should be able to draw a support (floor level) under the high low RSI prices.
And when the RSI breaks below the support line, it could signal the end of the uptrend and a start to the next bear market.
Downtrend confirmation
To confirm the strength of the market’s downtrend, you should be able to draw a resistance (ceiling level) over the lower RSI high prices.
And when the RSI breaks above the resistance line, it could signal the end of the downtrend and a start to the next bull market.
These are great confirmation and reversal trading signals to use with your strategy.
NOTE: You can also base your buy or sell ideas on trading chart patterns…
Trading signal #3:
Bullish & Bearish Divergence
The third signal I use to spot trade opportunities with the RSI is looking at the market’s price VERSUS the RSI’s direction.
In short…
BEARISH DIVERGENCE – Warning for downside
If the markets price makes higher lows, while the RSI makes lower highs – it’s a warning for DOWNSIDE to come.
BULLISH DIVERGENCE – Sign for upside
If the markets price makes lower highs, while the RSI makes higher lows – it’s a signal for UPSIDE to come.
Either way with both bullish and bearish divergences, the RSI fails to accept the current market’s price movements.
And so it is making a probability prediction that soon the market will make a reversal in its current trend.
Ok so now you know how the RSI works. Let’s sum up what we learnt.
RSI Summary in 3 Trading Signs:
Trading signal #1:
Overbought & Oversold levels
Overbought zone X > 70 = Selling opportunity
Neutral zone: X = 50
Oversold zone X < 30 = Buying opportunity
Trading signal #2:
Trend lines & Chart patterns
Uptrend confirmation: RSI makes higher lows (draw support line)
Downtrend confirmation: RSI makes lower highs (draw resistance line)
Breakout confirmation: RSI breaks out of a chart pattern
Trading signal #3:
Bullish & Bearish Divergence
Bullish divergence: Market’s price – lower highs
RSI – higher lows
Bearish divergence: Market’s price – higher lows
RSI – lower highs
Here’s how to calculate the RSI
The most common (default) settings for the RSI is 14 (Which we’ll use))
There is a two-part calculation with the RSI.
Part 1: Calculate the RSI (step 1)
RS or Relative Strength is (Average Gain ÷ Average Loss)
Average Gain = (Sum of gains over the past 14 periods) ÷ 14
Average Goss = (Sum of losses over the past 14 periods) ÷14
Calculate the RSI (Step 1)
Part 2: Calculate the RSI (Step 2)
Once you have this result, we then smoothen the RSI result with part 2…
And so that’s how the RSI continues with each closing price of the time frame you choose.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
(Financial trader since 2003)
BTCUSD Daily overview on bearishness signsBTCUSD reached supply as it touched the Anchored VWAP at the 2022 high (@alphatrends insight), rejected the 23,000 price area after rising to 23,062 USD, which could be seen as a bull trap and a false breakout of the mother of all trendlines from ATH. This strong resistance combines the major trendline and the VWAP with a neckline of the 2021 bottom. Price action broke this dynamic trendline on June 13, 22 and tested it on August 15, 22; yesterday tested it and failed to break once again.
From the point of view of chart pattern analysis, we can consider a massive and complex Head and Shoulders formation in the retracement phase up to the neckline, which can be considered as a partial validation signal, which can arouse more interest on the bear side. Key level for new short positions. If we double down on the head range, we might see a confluence with a Fibonacci retracement from the low of Friday-13-Mar'20 for the ATH, which the 88.6% level calls the 11.4k.
Also, from a technical analysis point of view, we have a rare case of bearish divergence on this daily chart, on the RSI (not shown on this chart, but below), OBV, CCI and Chaikin Money Flow and Chaikin Oscillators.
Awesome Oscillator analysis on H4:
Ehlers Smoothed Stochastic
plus Sctochastic Divergence
H1 chart:
Looking closely, if the price loses local support on a pullback in the regression channel, it is possible that we will see a pullback at least to the breakeven level in the 19k-18k range soon, for a correction of the imbalance. Price action may react positively as bulls identify this area as a buy zone. The lower deviation of the Regression Channel calls the 14k sublevel. Therefore, I see a high possibility that the price will hit the demand zone at 16k sub-levels in a corrective wave. On the other hand, if price holds 17k making a higher low, a sharp pullback could send the price action into a large contraction (triangle) formation.
Intraday Triangle:
Looking to the daily chart of TOTAL top 125 crypto-coins market cap we can see that the price pulled back to test the upper trendline of a bearish pennant:
Psychologically, I think long-term buy-and-hold institutions may have an interest in voluntarily distributing this high level to spot traders so they can buy cheaper. Therefore, any pullback in the area of interest will be massively used by moonbois to inject liquidity. We are at a key point where market sentiment could turn from neutral to bearish. And the best choice, IMO, is to get ahead in short positions. But the scenario can only materialize with the definitions from the opening of the US Stock markets and a reversal from DXY. Mainly, I should keep an eye on S&P500 ES futures.
This is merely a technical analysis to improve studies of hypothetical scenarios and not a financial advice.
Best regards,
Thiago Oliveira
@firmestudio