Trade Ideas Educator: USDCAD ABCDA bearish ABCD pattern set up for a trend trading trade and it is well resisted on the daily chart. The entire setup is within a bearish parallel channel based on the daily chart.
Candle confirmation is required for me to engage in the trade. Another setup that I can consider to engage at 10am(+8GMT). Can't wait for Monday.
Rsioverbought
CAD/CHF Technical analysisCAD/CHF poured down from the highs steeply.
It hit the support level of 0.74854 and made a U-shaped correction.
Now, it is at a critical price action resistance zone which could cap the rally.
Hence, traders can sell on rise expecting a move to the support level of 0.74854.
Trade Ideas Position: NZDJPY SharkWell this setup is interesting, it has a bearish shark setup and the light red box you see is not the PRZ of shark, that is the equal distant move indicated by the blue line. A way that I trade.
So the estimation of completion of the blue line and shark completion is closed so I've decided to box it up and observe the movement, the candle close before I engage the trade.
The real ABCD Pattern completes at the much higher price which still falls into the valid setup of the shark pattern. Yes! Shark Pattern is a crafty 1, if one is not ready to tame the beast, shouldn't trade shark.
CAD/JPY UPCOMING WEEKLY BREAKDOWN ANALYSISPrice Action (Technical Analysis): After a bit of a crazy week for the FX Market due to Fundamentals. Price moves and closes at a very interesting zone which would be our Weekly Mid-Range Zone, this zone tells us that we can expect 1 of 2 options. If price breaks below this zone we can expect price to find its way to our New Support, let's say Sellers decide to push price continuously lower for a fake out to the upside, then we can anticipate buyers to enter, testing our well respected descending trend-line.
Either way the market sets us up exceptionally for a High Risk to Reward Trade.
This Top to Bottom analysis is very simple, it's very easy to over-complicate analysis's so this weeks approach will be simplified with Structure & Trend Skills.
Fundamental Analysis: A pair that compliments our analysis day in and day out would be USD/JPY, we see a positive correlation between the pairs and the Greenback has a bit of a bumpy week itself dropping about 250-300 pips towards the closing of the week. Both the Canadian/Yen & Dollar/Yen are sitting in a Neutral Zone. We know the Loonie is highly motivated by Crude Oil because of Canada's Energy Exports so for this pair. We Identify & Analyze Crude Oil in order for us to have a more confident approach. Oil analysis will be dropped Tomorrow for further confirmations for Cad/Jpy.
Every Saturday/Sunday I drop a Watch-List on my Trading Instagram @ RiosTrades. Every week I will drop a Watch-List for High Probably & High Risk/Reward Ideas. All the support goes a long way and never goes un-noticed. Thank You! Enjoy this week.
USD/CHF - Possible correction - H4USD/CHF is so close to the best place where we can open a SHORT entry.
- Price bounced a few times on the trendline.
- RSI OVERSOLD H4 and D1
- Trendline rejection
I love such entries because risk-reward is good.
GOOD LUCK and take entry according to your balance.
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USDCHF possible Short opportunityIn the last 2 months the USDCHF has created a Bearish Trendline. The price is now getting close to this Trendline and that sugfgests us that the price might be bouncing down again as it did in the past. Combined with RSI in Overbought condition and the MACD that is starting to form a cross, this makes a great Short opportunity.
SHOCKING PROOFS: How Whales Manipulate THE BITCOIN-MARKET!Dear Friends :)
I have the last couple of weeks, warned you again and again about extraordinary high manipulation in the Bitcoin-market (BTC/USD). I received earlier today a link on Twitter to a blog on Steemit, where a guy documents, how a group of whales are discussing, how to manipulate a market.
I therefore decided to spent a lot of time to analyze the last 2 weeks of the BTCUSD-market. I have made a comparison between the last 2 weeks and Bitcoins Price movements in the past and also looked closer in to other traditional markets the last couple of weeks (with lower and higher Market Capitalization).
Let's first define manipulation:
Controlling someone or something to your own advantage, often unfairly or dishonestly. In this case, we are talking about whales with a lot of money (usually at least 5 % of the market) is taking advantage of traders with less money to gain more wealth.
My Approach:
This is only seen from a TA-perspective. I have looked at the 1h BTCUSD chart over 14 days. I have chosen to categorize 3 different ways whales have manipulated the market:
1. Bear traps (yellow circles). To bait traders to go SHORT hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms a downtrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate SHORTS.
2. Bull Traps (red circles). To bait traders to go LONG hopefully with leverage, AND in a situation, where normal TA principles confirms an uptrend direction, where the whales hereafter use their power and money to go in the opposite direction with the purpose to liquidate LONGS.
3. Shake outs (orange magnifying glass). Sudden huge price movements in either direction, WHERE normal TA-principles not necessarily confirms a clear and certain direction. Also with the purpose to liquidate either SHORTS or LONGS to achieve more control in the market.
I have furthermore used the following indicators to confirm a possible manipulation:
- Volume by time (measured and compared to the MA20 volume)
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Summary and conclusion:
1. Take notice of the long period of 14 days, where the RSI not* have been under 50, apart from the times where whales manipulated the market. We only had a period of 15 hours (look at the green rectangle) where it happened. This has never happened in this market before under similar circumstances.
Usually we only see this in parabolic runs over some few days or if we make higher highs and lows in a market, which is going up in bids with not much fluctuations and usually not for that many days in a row.
2. The amount of manipulation is extremely high compared to other periods of 14 days. I have looked into at least 25 different periods of 14 days, and I haven't yet found a period with more manipulation.
3. April the 12th 2018 we had a Bitcoin-record, when it comes to volume by hour (Volume was higher than 24 times the MA20) and it appeared after a bear trap.
4. The number of times the RSI Level is above 70 is extremely high compared to a normal period of 14 days and very high to a similar uptrend period.
What we can expect now
As you can see, yesterday was the first time we came under RSI Level 50 again and stayed there without a manipulation, which took us higher. As I told you before, I also compared this situation with 2014, where we saw the crash. If this and the 2014-path continues, I have illustrated on the RSI what we will see.
You can expect that we will continue go lower in price and the RSI stay under 50 (usually around 30-40) and when we try to go above RSI 50 you can expect that it is a bull trap. You also expect regular shake outs, and eventually it can result in a similar crash we saw in 2014.
Let's hope the best for Bitcoin though!
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I would really appreciate A BIG like this time - I spent a lot of time with all the research :)
more sideways wobble?Following on from previous posts about hitting the daily RSI overbought area, I am beginning to see a slowdown, that may bounce off the 8300 support without dropping below the RSI Daily 30%. In which case a smaller upward trend will follow along with more sideways before eventually dropping.
IE: the bounce back may take longer than I initially expected.
Comments would be appreciated.
Caveat : I am not a professional trader or adviser. Do your own research before making any trade. Never trade more than you can afford to loose.
AUDUSD Short, RSI oversold and dropping, Commodities overbought.Looking at commodities which support AUDUSD, they look overbought. Adding to that the DXY situation, the USD looks supportive of potential strength. Sell AUD with good take profits at previous lows. Take profits could change depending on circumstances.
EUR/AUD hitting daily resistance.On the daily chart, it is showing that the market is hitting the daily resistance and the RSI is showing that the market is close to being overbought.
On the 4 hr chart, it shows RSI being overbought and the 1 hr shows it being overbought again so that is confirmation that we will go short on this trade once an entry has been found.
Currently I placed a mini black resistance line below the daily resistance so when price breaks this, you can simply execute a sell stop order and ride out the market to your preference.
There are three profit targets which I have placed. Once it hits profit target 1, I am confident that it will hit the other 2. First profit target is a 4 R/R
Thank you guys and have a great weekend.
GBPCAD - Completes the Bearish Bat patternFrom the last post in early April (see related idea). Price did not manage to complete the Harmonic Pattern and it dropped. This time around GBPCAD has been on the rise and has not reached a critical zone, completing the Pattern.
Pattern Identification
Completed a Bearish Bat Pattern at this current levels. Starting to have a bearish bias.
The H1 RSI has also reached the OverBought zone
Trade Execution
Now we have just formed the T-Bar. Will have to watch the next and the next few bars. If price rejects the PRZ and fall, it will create a good opportunity to take the trade.
Next few candles will be critical
Confluence on AUDNZDHey traders,
another analysis i really enjoyed today. This is one of my favorite style, for youhave to support your view by adding more and more clues (of value) to your side.
Here on AUDNZD we are at a bigger Gartley completion, and we can see a nice AB=CD pattern and a Fibonacci cluster all right there. In addition to that, we also are in an OVERBOUGHT condition on RSI.
Obviously if you scroll the chart you can see there's also a structure level on the left.
The confirmation signal is given by the current engulfing candle.
Entry at market, stops and targets as in the chart above.
Let's see.
If you have any question, please ask beneath.
Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
EURUSD Trend Continuation tradeHey guys,
here on EURUSD we have a nice trading setup, since we broke below the most recent low and now we are pulling back to the resistance zone. I've outlined a box (between ex support and actual resistance) and in there i'm looking for a candlestick formation, considering we've already entered an OVERBOUGHT condition.
Trade simple.
If you have any question or remark, please fill the comment section below.
Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
Bearish Bat : EURUSD - Short SetupEURUSD is about to form bearish bat pattern on Daily timeframe and if the bat pattern gets complete as we have predicted it will be right place to go short.
We can also note that RSI condition being oversold, so it adds up to our confidence that bearish bat works in our favour.
Being on daily timeframe this trade may take time for completion, so traders who can wait for longer time and those who trade advanced patterns can keep this one in their watchlist.
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Comment your views...
Happy Trading !
Short EURUSD: Bat + S/R + Divergence + Overbought + Weekly PivotEURUSD is nearing the PRZ of a bearish bat in a significant area of S/R. MACD is also printing divergence in addition to RSI being overbought. A missed weekly pivot sits below price and is confluent with a larger .5 retracement. Entry is placed at the bottom of the PRZ with a SL above 1.13XA and targets at .618CD and the missed weekly pivot.
Confluence in the PRZ:
Bearish bat pattern completion
2.5AB=CD
2.618BC projection
S/R Zone
RSI Overbought
Bearish MACD Divergence
Missed weekly pivot below price
3 SIMPLE WAYS TO SHORT GOLDHi there,
With gold, I was looking for a possibility to be involved in the down trend. Finally the chance come as the price retraces to my expected reversal zone. Later, I found out that there are other levels that can also be a great place to go short.
Here is why I think those levels provide great opportunity.
1. Retracement to Structure
-Price retraces to previous swing low
-Have confluence with 0.382 Fib Retracement
-RSI Overbought
2. Potential CTS Trade
-Have structure looking left
-0.618 Fib Retracement
-Another potential confluence that will increase the CTS Pts
3. Potential Cypher Pattern Completion
-Cypher Pattern completion at 0.786 Retracement of the X-A leg.
So, those are the 3 simple ways guys, hope this one gives you valuable insights in planning your trades.
Feel free to show your interest and give comments to share your ideas guys. Really appreciate it.